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DOE OSTI2025

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simultaneous ELM suppression and divertor detachment via synergistic boron powder and neon injection in EAST

A novel approach for simultaneous power exhaust and edge-localized mode (ELM) control is presented in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak discharges, which utilize an ITER-like tungsten divertor. Real-time injection of boron (B) powder and neon (Ne) gas overcomes their limitations encountered when used separately. Pure Ne seeding leads to a narrow operational window constrained by core impurity accumulation and H-mode to L-mode back transitions, while pure solid B injection (SBI) is insufficient for effective divertor cooling. In comparison, their combined use achieves a stable, stationary, ELM-suppressed H-mode with adequate power exhaust. This synergistic scenario features partial energy detachment at the outer divertor while maintaining good plasma confinement (H 98 ∼ 1) with minimal degradation. Two key features of this scenario are: (1) the SBI triggers a persistent Edge Harmonic Mode (EHM), which provides a crucial continuous particle transport channel, preventing Ne and tungsten/molybdenum accumulation without flushing out by ELM, and (2) the B + Ne mixture allows for active optimization of the radiated power profile. Core radiation can be reduced by substituting a portion of the Ne with B, leveraging their complementary non-coronal equilibrium radiation efficiencies. This combined B + Ne injection scheme presents a promising pathway toward integrated core-edge scenarios, offering the potential to minimize total impurity throughput while leveraging an actuator (powder injection) already being considered for ITER.

Boron↗

DOE OSTI2021

The phase diagram of ultra quantum liquids

In this paper, we discuss the dependence of the phase diagram of a hypothetical isotope of helium with nuclear mass less than 4 atomic mass units. We argue that with decreasing nucleus mass, the temperature of the superfluid phase transition (about 2.2 K in real 4 He) increases, while that of the liquid-gas critical point (about 5.2 K in real 4 He) decreases. We discuss various scenarios that may occur when the two temperatures approach each other and the order parameters of the superfluid and the liquid-gas phase transitions interact with each other. The simplest scenario, in which both order parameters become critical at particular values of the nuclear mass, temperature, and pressure, can be ruled out through on an analysis of the Landau theory. We argue that in the most likely scenario, as the nuclear mass decreases, first, a tricritical point appears on the line separating the superfluid and the normal fluid phase, then the critical point disappears under the first-order part of superfluid phase transition line, and in the end the tricritical point disappears. The last change in the phase diagram occurs when the two-body scattering length crosses zero, which corresponds to the nuclear mass of about 1.55 u. We develop a quantitative theory that allows one to determine the phase diagram in the vicinity of this point. Lastly, we discuss several ways to physically realize such liquids.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Permafrost thermal conditions are sensitive to shifts in snow timing

Abstract Changes in snow precipitation at high latitudes can significantly affect permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth, potentially exposing more carbon-laden soil to microbial decomposition. A fully coupled process-based surface/subsurface thermal hydrology model with surface energy balance is used to analyze the impact of intra-annual variability in snow on permafrost thermal regime and the active layer thickness. In the four numerical scenarios considered, simulations were forced by the same meteorological data, except the snow precipitation, which was systematically altered to change timing of snowfall. The scenarios represent subtle shifts in snow timing, but the snow onset/melt days, the end of winter snowpack depth, and total annual snow precipitation are unchanged among scenarios. The simulations show that small shifts in the timing of snow accumulation can have significant effects on subsurface thermal conditions leading to active layer deepening and even talik formation when snowfall arrives earlier in the winter. The shifts in snow timing have a stronger impact on wetter regions, especially soil underneath small ponds, as compared to drained regions. This study highlights the importance of understanding potential changes in winter precipitation patterns for reliable projections of active-layer thickness in a changing Arctic climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

DOE OSTI2021

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production: a coordinated analysis with a detailed structural model and an integrated multisectoral model

Scenarios for deep decarbonization involve biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, and they often include negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. However, critical questions remain about the feasibility of rapid growth to high levels of biomass utilization, given biomass and land availability as well as historical growth rates of the biofuel industry. We address these questions through a unique coordinated analysis and comparison of carbon pricing effects on biomass utilization growth in the United States using a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM). We harmonized and varied key factors—such as carbon prices, vehicle electrification, and arable land availability—in the two models. We varied the rate of biorefinery construction, the fungibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives in BSM. The rate of growth in biomass deployment under a carbon price in both models is within the range of current literature. However, the reallocation of land to biomass feedstocks would need to overcome bottlenecks to achieve growth consistent with deep decarbonization scenarios. Investments as a result of near-term policy incentives can develop technology and expand capacity—reducing costs, enabling flexibility in feedstock use, and improving stability—but if biomass demand is high, these investments might not overcome land reallocation bottlenecks. Biomass utilization for deep decarbonization relies on extraordinary growth in biomass availability and industrial capacity. In this paper, we quantify and describe the potential challenges of this rapid change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air quality and public health co-benefits of 100% renewable electricity adoption and electrification pathways in Los Angeles

To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM 2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $\$$1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

How different power plant types contribute to electric grid reliability, resilience, and vulnerability: a comparative analytical framework

Abstract This work explores the dependability tradeoffs provided by the most common types of central power plants in the United States. Historically, the electricity sector has lacked consensus on how reliability , resilience , and vulnerability differ and how those metrics change depending on the power plant fleet composition. We propose distinct definitions for these metrics and an analytical framework to evaluate power plant fleet dependability. Using data analysis and literature review, we identify fifteen dependability attributes across which we rank eleven power plant types relative to natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants. We use NGCC as the benchmark because it is common to many locations and is of relatively recent vintage. The framework shows that each power plant type has unique dependability benefits and drawbacks. We provide examples of how researchers may use the framework to evaluate grid dependability qualitatively under different scenarios. We find that assuming all attributes that contribute to grid dependability are equally important and additive, electric grid dependability is best supported when power plant fleets include a mixture of power generation technologies. Then, we discuss scenario characteristics that could alter the prioritization and relationships of attributes. We also find that if current capacity installation trends continue to favor low- and zero-carbon power plants, US power grids may benefit from increased resilience and reduced vulnerability at the cost of decreased reliability. We conclude by recommending methods for adapting the framework and quantifying relationships between attributes in individual scenarios.

Ramirez-Meyers, K. (ORCID:0000000291216952)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗

DOE OSTI2020

The age–chemical abundance structure of the Galactic disc – II. α -dichotomy and thick disc formation

ABSTRACT We extend our previous work on the age–chemical abundance structure of the Galactic outer disc to the inner disc (4 < r < 8 kpc) based on the SDSS/APOGEE survey. Different from the outer disc, the inner disc stars exhibit a clear bimodal distribution in the [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] plane. While a number of scenarios have been proposed in the literature, it remains challenging to recover this bimodal distribution with theoretical models. To this end, we present a chemical evolution model embedding a complex multiphase inner disc formation scenario that matches the observed bimodal [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] distribution. In this scenario, the formation of the inner disc is dominated by two main starburst episodes $6\,$Gyr apart with secular, low-level star formation activity in between. In our model, the first starburst occurs at early cosmic times ($t\sim 1\,$ Gyr) and the second one $6\,$ Gyr later at a cosmic time of $t\sim 7\,$ Gyr. Both these starburst episodes are associated with gas accretion events in our model, and are quenched rapidly. The first starburst leads to the formation of the high-α sequence, and the second starburst leads to the formation of the metal-poor low-α sequence. The metal-rich low-α stars, instead, form during the secular evolution phase between the two bursts. Our model shows that the α-dichotomy originates from the rapid suppression of star formation after the first starburst. The two starburst episodes are likely to be responsible for the formation of the geometric thick disc (z >1 kpc), with the old inner thick disc and the young outer thick disc forming during the first and the second starbursts, respectively.

Lian, Jianhui↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the likely importance of weak-interaction-driven bulk viscosity in neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT In this work, we estimate how much bulk viscosity driven by Urca processes is likely to affect the gravitational wave signal of a neutron star coalescence. In the late inspiral, we show that bulk viscosity affects the binding energy at fourth post-Newtonian order. Even though this effect is enhanced by the square of the gravitational compactness, the coefficient of bulk viscosity is likely too small to lead to observable effects in the waveform during the late inspiral, when only considering the orbital motion itself. In the post-merger, however, the characteristic time-scales and spatial scales are different, potentially leading to the opposite conclusion. We post-process data from a state-of-the-art equal-mass binary neutron star merger simulation to estimate the effects of bulk viscosity (which was not included in the simulation itself). In that scenario, we find that bulk viscosity can reach high values in regions of the merger. We compute several estimates of how much it might directly affect the global dynamics of the considered merger scenario, and find that it could become significant. Even larger effects could arise in different merger scenarios or in simulations that include non-linear effects. This assessment is reinforced by a quantitative comparison with relativistic heavy-ion collisions where such effects have been explored extensively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey year 1 results: Constraining baryonic physics in the Universe

ABSTRACT Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probing dark matter with strong gravitational lensing through an effective density slope

ABSTRACT Many dark matter (DM) models that are consistent with current cosmological data show differences in the predicted (sub)halo mass function, especially at sub-galactic scales, where observations are challenging due to the inefficiency of star formation. Strong gravitational lensing has been shown to be a useful tool for detecting dark low-mass (sub)haloes through perturbations in lensing arcs, therefore allowing the testing of different DM scenarios. However, measuring the total mass of a perturber from strong lensing data is challenging. Overestimating or underestimating perturber masses can lead to incorrect inferences about the nature of DM. In this paper, we argue that inferring an effective slope of the DM density profile, which is the power-law slope of perturbers at intermediate radii, where we expect the perturber to have the largest observable effect, is a promising way to circumvent these challenges. Using N-body simulations, we show that (sub)halo populations under different DM scenarios differ in their effective density slope distributions. Using realistic mocks of Hubble Space Telescope observations of strong lensing images, we show that the effective density slope of perturbers can be robustly measured with high enough accuracy to discern between different models. We also present our measurement of the effective density slope $\gamma =1.96\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ for the perturber in JVAS B1938+666, which is a 2σ outlier of the cold DM scenario. More measurements of this kind are needed to draw robust conclusions about the nature of DM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discovery of extreme, roughly daily superflares on the recurrent nova V2487 Oph

ABSTRACT V2487 Oph is a recurrent nova with detected eruptions in 1900 and 1998. Startlingly, V2487 Oph shows flares, called ‘Superflares’, with up to 1.10 mag amplitude, fast rises of under one-minute, always with an initial impulsive spike followed by a roughly exponential tail, typically one-hour durations, and with random event times averaging once-per-day. The typical flare energy E is over 1038 erg, while the yearly energy budget is 1041 erg. V2487 Oph Superflares obey three relations; the number distribution of flare energies scales as E−2.34 ± 0.35, the waiting time from one flare to the next is proportional to E of the first event, and flare durations scale as E0.44 ± 0.03. Scenarios involving gravitational energy and nuclear energy fail to satisfy the three relations. The magnetic energy scenario, however, can explain all three relations. This scenario has magnetic field lines above the disc being twisted and amplified by the motions of their footprints, with magnetic reconnection releasing energy that comes out as Superflare light. This exact mechanism is already well known to occur in white light solar flares, in ordinary M-type flare stars, and in the many Superflare stars observed all across the H-R diagram. Superflares on Superflare stars have rise times, light-curve shapes, and durations that are very similar to those on V2487 Oph. So we conclude that the V2487 Oph Superflares are caused by large-scale magnetic reconnection. V2487 Oph is now the most extreme Superflare star, exhibiting the largest known flare energy (1.6 × 1039 erg) and the fastest occurrence rate.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗