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DOE OSTI2022

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis using EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Research for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based HRA) has been required, as many researchers have emphasized the importance of dynamic approaches to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). This study proposes the PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – Human Reliability Analysis (PRIMERA-HRA) method, which is an approach to dynamic HRA using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In this study, how to model human actions using the software and evaluate the error probabilities is suggested. The applicability of this approach will be also investigated through an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario. Then, major insights from this dynamic HRA approach against the static one will be discussed in the paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1999

"Ultra"-Fast Fracture Strength of Advanced Structural Ceramic Materials Studied at Elevated Temperatures

The accurate determination of inert strength is important in reliable life prediction of structural ceramic components. At ambient temperature, the inert strength of a brittle material is typically regarded as free of the effects of slow crack growth due to stress corrosion. Therefore, the inert strength can be determined either by eliminating active species, especially moisture, with an appropriate inert medium, or by using a very high test rate. However, at elevated temperatures, the concept or definition of the inert strength of brittle ceramic materials is not clear, since temperature itself is a degrading environment, resulting in strength degradation through slow crack growth and/or creep. Since the mechanism to control strength is rate-dependent viscous flow, the only conceivable way to determine the inert strength at elevated temperatures is to utilize a very fast test rate that either minimizes the time for or eliminates slow crack growth. Few experimental studies have measured the elevated-temperature, inert (or "ultra"-fast fracture) strength of advanced ceramics. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, an experimental study was initiated to better understand the "ultra"-fast fracture strength behavior of advanced ceramics at elevated temperatures. Fourteen advanced ceramics - one alumina, eleven silicon nitrides, and two silicon carbides - have been tested using constant stress-rate (dynamic fatigue) testing in flexure with a series of stress rates including the "ultra"-fast stress rate of 33 000 MPa/sec with digitally controlled test frames. The results for these 14 advanced ceramics indicate that, notwithstanding possible changes in flaw populations as well as flaw configurations because of elevated temperatures, the strength at 33 000 MPa/sec approached the room-temperature strength or reached a higher value than that determined at the conventional test rate of 30 MPa/sec. On the basis of the experimental data, it can be stated that the elevated-temperature, inert strength of an advanced ceramic material can be defined as the strength where no slow crack growth takes place at the temperature.

Choi, Sung R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 14 - Reliability of Wind Turbines

The global wind energy industry has grown at a fast pace during the past half-decade. Advancements from design and manufacturing to operation and maintenance have led to reduced capital and maintenance costs, which make wind power an indispensable source for a comprehensive solution to global electricity needs. Once wind turbines are installed, the opportunity to lower wind power costs is mainly through improved operation and maintenance practices. Modern wind turbines are equipped with tens or hundreds of measurement channels and are generating an abundance of data, with lot of efforts being put into data analysis by both the research community and the industry. One type of analysis is through the exploration of reliability engineering methods based on readily available data or maintenance records collected at typical wind power plants. If adopted and conducted appropriately, these analyses can quickly save operation and maintenance costs in a potentially impactful manner. The wind industry has adopted this discipline more broadly in recent years. This chapter discusses wind turbine reliability by highlighting the methodology of reliability engineering life data analysis. It first briefly discusses the fundamentals of wind turbine reliability and the current industry status. Then, the reliability engineering method for life analysis, including data collection, model development, and forecasting, is presented in detail and illustrated through two case studies. The chapter concludes with some remarks on potential opportunities to improve wind turbine reliability. An owner and operator's perspective is taken and mechanical components are used to exemplify the potential benefits of reliability engineering analysis to improve wind turbine reliability and availability.

database↗

DOE OSTI2020

In Situ Reliability Investigation of All-Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries by a Stable Reference Electrode

Redox flow batteries (RFBs) have been studied over the past several decades as a promising candidate for stationary energy storage applications. It is therefore important to understand the reliability of RFBs and the mechanisms that cause degradation with time. Contributions from individual electrodes (cathode or anode) are difficult to separate especially for long-term cycle testing, due to the lack of a stable reference electrode. In our work, the reliability and degradation mechanisms of an all-vanadium RFB were investigated by a stable reference electrode based on the dynamic hydrogen electrode (DHE). With factor exploration and design optimization, the newly developed DHE reference electrode demonstrated high accuracy and long-term stability that enables in-situ monitoring of individual electrode signals (potentials and impedances) over hundreds of cycles in a vanadium RFB. This approach enables the full cell degradation to be separated and the degradation attributed to contributions from the cathode and anode. The cathode and anode were found to play quite different roles in the increase in overpotential of the vanadium RFB during long-term cycling. The anode reaction limited both the charge and discharge capacity over 100 cycles. In addition, the negative side also appeared to be the rate limiting factor throughout cycling as determined by EIS measurement. The cathode contributed to the performance degradation as cycling exceeded 50 cycles.

Huang, Qian↗

NASA NTRS2001

Determination of an Optimal Commercial Data Bus Architecture for a Flight Data System

NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is continually looking for methods to reduce cost and schedule while keeping the quality of work high. MSFC is NASA's lead center for space transportation and microgravity research. When supporting NASA's programs several decisions concerning the avionics system must be made. Usually many trade studies must be conducted to determine the best ways to meet the customer's requirements. When deciding the flight data system, one of the first trade studies normally conducted is the determination of the data bus architecture. The schedule, cost, reliability, and environments are some of the factors that are reviewed in the determination of the data bus architecture. Based on the studies, the data bus architecture could result in a proprietary data bus or a commercial data bus. The cost factor usually removes the proprietary data bus from consideration. The commercial data bus's range from Versa Module Eurocard (VME) to Compact PCI to STD 32 to PC 104. If cost, schedule and size are prime factors, VME is usually not considered. If the prime factors are cost, schedule, and size then Compact PCI, STD 32 and PC104 are the choices for the data bus architecture. MSFC's center director has funded a study from his discretionary fund to determine an optimal low cost commercial data bus architecture. The goal of the study is to functionally and environmentally test Compact PCI, STD 32 and PC 104 data bus architectures. This paper will summarize the results of the data bus architecture study.

Crawford, Kevin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of UAV-derived multimodal remote sensing data for biomass prediction and drought tolerance assessment in bioenergy sorghum

Screening for drought tolerance is critical to ensure high biomass production of bioenergy sorghum in arid or semi-arid environments. The bottleneck in drought tolerance selection is the challenge of accurately predicting biomass for a large number of genotypes. Although biomass prediction by low-altitude remote sensing has been widely investigated on various crops, the performance of the predictions are not consistent, especially when applied in a breeding context with hundreds of genotypes. In some cases, biomass prediction of a large group of genotypes benefited from multimodal remote sensing data; while in other cases, the benefits were not obvious. In this study, we evaluated the performance of single and multimodal data (thermal, RGB, and multispectral) derived from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for biomass prediction for drought tolerance assessments within a context of bioenergy sorghum breeding. The biomass of 360 sorghum genotypes grown under well-watered and water-stressed regimes was predicted with a series of UAV-derived canopy features, including canopy structure, spectral reflectance, and thermal radiation features. Biomass predictions using canopy features derived from the multimodal data showed comparable performance with the best results obtained with the single modal data with coefficients of determination (R 2 ) ranging from 0.40 to 0.53 under water-stressed environment and 0.11 to 0.35 under well-watered environment. The significance in biomass prediction was highest with multispectral followed by RGB and lowest with the thermal sensor. Finally, two well-recognized yield-based drought tolerance indices were calculated from ground truth biomass data and UAV predicted biomass, respectively. Results showed that the geometric mean productivity index outperformed the yield stability index in terms of the potential for reliable predictions by the remotely sensed data. Collectively, this study demonstrated a promising strategy for the use of different UAV-based imaging sensors to quantify yield-based drought tolerance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A simple method for floating graphene oxide films facilitates nanoscale investigations of ion and water adsorption

Graphene oxide (GO) is a promising material for separations. Nanoscale GO thin films at the air/water interface are excellent experimental models to understand molecular-scale interactions of ions and water with GO. However, the characteristics of GO, such as functional groups and flake size, also affect the thin film properties making it difficult to make systematic studies with GO thin films. This paper reports a simple, reliable, and quick method of preparing ultra-thin GO films, irrespective of their origin, and demonstrates the new opportunities possible with the utilization of this method. The total amount of GO used to form the thin film is significantly less compared to previous examples in the literature, minimizing the dissolved GO in the subphase. X-ray reflectivity (XR) studies show that the majority of the GO film has 1.5 nm thickness over a macroscopic area (~100 cm 2 ) with very small roughness. Sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy measurements show that H 2 O and D 2 O interact differently with GO films, a property that was not observed before. SFG data show that functional groups vary significantly between different commercially available GO samples. The differences are also characterized with XR at high resolution. X-ray fluorescence near total reflection (XFNTR) measurements show that these differences strongly affect ion adsorption and interfacial water behavior near GO, which are vital properties in separation applications. The results pave the way for future studies to elucidate the complex separation mechanisms with GO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experiments and modelling of adhesive failure initiation of an epoxy underfill: a study of electronic packaging survivability

Epoxy underfills can be implemented in electronic packaging to enhance solder joint reliability of surface mounted components. However, it is important for an engineer to have a failure criterion that can be used for failure predictions and redesign of electronic assemblies. For this study, data from epoxy bond failure in mock electronic part assemblies were correlated to finite element analyses to predict adhesive failure initiation. Experiments were performed to determine failure loads for various loading locations and nonlinear viscoelastic analyses were performed for the same loading locations to determine a maximum principal strain failure parameter. Predictions showed that a maximum principal strain failure parameter defined from one test could be used as an indicator of adhesive failure of an epoxy bond undergoing other modes of loading. Failure initiation predictions matched experimental data using a maximum principal strain failure parameter for an epoxy bond undergoing mixed modes of loading for both unfilled and alumina oxide filled 828DEA epoxy. Such experimental setup is deemed appropriate for future epoxy testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improvement of screen-printable metallization paste for low-cost silicon solar cells utilizing silver coated copper powders

This aims of this project were to develop low-cost screen-printable Ag|Cu metallization, as alternative to Ag paste, for contacting PERC solar cells with transparent emitter for high performance and reliability. The intended goal was to achieve 81% fill factor with a screen-printable Ag|Cu paste alternative. This was attempted through a three strand approach including Ag|Cu formulation by SVMT, production using cavitation technology by ACI and contact formation through the understanding of (i) the liquid phase sintering of the nano/macro particles of Ag|Cu to achieve bulk metal with very low series resistance, (ii) optimization of contact firing to avoid penetration of Cu into the silicon bulk, and finally (iii) proper analysis to quantify the contributions of each resistance component and keep the total series resistance at 0.2 Ω-cm2, which would result in high fill factor of 81% by UNC Charlotte. The objectives also involved i) the implementation of glass frit with Cu metal that will etch through the ARC for low contact resistance and adhesion, ii) development of Ag|Cu pastes with the optimized glass frit, iii) investigation of the impact of Cu particle size, morphology and loading on the gridline resistance, iv) narrow gridline screen designs along with narrow gridline prints, v) development of fast belt speeds of up to 375 inches per minute (ipm) sintering, and vi) stability study on Ag|Cu contact to high performance and reliability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

High temporal resolution generation expansion planning for the clean energy transition

As power systems integrate increasing quantities of wind, solar and energy storage resources, it is important to revisit power system capacity expansion modeling methods and assumptions that have been utilized in thermal- dominated systems. We conduct a series of case study analyses using a simplified representation of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system to demonstrate how least-cost capacity expansion outcomes are impacted by changes in model resolution across two temporal dimensions: 1) the number of considered representative periods, and 2) the system dispatch interval. First, we find that the least-cost generation portfolio can differ significantly for small changes in the number of representative days, but largely converges to the 365-day result once 104 representative days are considered. Furthermore, systems with wind, solar and storage resources were more sensitive to changes in the number of representative days than a thermal-dominated system. Second, we find that considering five-minute dispatch resolution consistently results in least-cost generation portfolios with less solar capacity and more energy storage capacity than corresponding scenarios with hourly dispatch intervals. This suggests that hourly dispatch representation fails to capture the intra-hour volatility of solar generation, and therefore also overlooks opportunities for storage resources to provide system value by balancing this volatility. Collectively these results indicate that capacity expansion modelers should revisit conventional approaches to temporal representation when conducting analyses of deeply decarbonized power systems to ensure that such analyses are robust and actionable. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze capacity expansion outcomes with five-minute dispatch resolution in this manner.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Thermodynamics of Silicon-Hydroxide Formation in H2O Containing Atmospheres

The formation of volatile silicon-hydroxide species from SiO2 in water containing atmospheres has been identified as a potentially important mode of degradation of Si-based ceramics. Availability of thermodynamic data for these species is a major problem. This study is part of an ongoing effort to obtain reliable, experimentally determined thermodynamic data for these species. The transpiration method was used to measure the pressure of Si-containing vapor in equilibrium with SiO2 (cristobalite) and Ar + H2O(g) with various mole fractions of water vapor, X(sub H2O), at temperatures ranging from 1000 to 1780 K. Enthalpies and entropies for the reaction, SiO2(s) + 2H2O(g) = Si(OH)4(g), were obtained, at X(sub H2O) = 0.15 and 0.37, from the variation of lnK with 1/T according to the 'second law method'. The following data were obtained: delta(H)deg = 52.9 +/- 3.7 kJ/mole and delta(S)deg = -68.6 +/- 2.5 J/mole K at an average temperature of 1550 K, and delta(H)deg = 52.5+/-2.0 kJ/mole and delta(S)deg= -69.7 +/- 1.5 J/moleK at an average temperature of 1384 K, for X(sub H2O)= 0.15 and 0.37, respectively. These data agree with results from the literature obtained at an average temperature of 1600 K, and strongly suggest Si(OH)4(g) is the dominant vapor species. Contradictory results were obtained with the determination of the dependence of Si-containing vapor pressure on the partial pressure of water vapor at 1187 and 1722 K. These results suggested the Si-containing vapor could be a mixture of Si(OH)4 + SiO(OH)2. Further pressure dependent studies are in progress to resolve these issues.

Copland, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optoelectronic and structural characterization of trapezoidal defects in 4H-SiC epilayers and the effect on MOSFET reliability

To this day, trapezoidal defects are found in clusters and high counts in wafers representing the industry standard in terms of material quality being produced. This study sheds light on the nature, origin, behavior, and impact of this defect on device yield and reliability. Trapezoidal defects in 4H-SiC epitaxial layers were investigated by photoluminescence (PL) imaging, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), cathodoluminescence spectrum imaging (CLSI), SEM electron beam induced current (EBIC) imaging, and by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observation. The bar-shaped stacking faults were identified by the PL and CL measurements with a peak emission wavelength of 420 and 450 nm. An optoelectronic behavioral study based on the recombination enhanced dislocation glide mechanism revealed how expanding dislocations and stacking faults interact with each other. Combining the luminescence and microscopy results, the nature of the stacking faults was identified as being a combination of Shockley-type and Frank-type stacking faults. The TEM analysis showed that these defects originate from the substrate and the stacking sequences of some of the faults were determined as (…2, 4, 2…) and (…2, 3, 2…) in the Zhdanov's notation by high-resolution TEM. The origin of this defect is speculated based on our results and previous reports. The EBIC imaging showed that the high density of SFs in these towers is a strong site of carrier recombination, which presumably has an impact on the transfer characteristics of SiC devices. Furthermore, these defects have shown to impact metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors electrical performance via an increase in the on-state resistance depending on the coverage percentage of the tower of defects in the active area of the device.

4H-SiC↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The optimal solutions associated with the MPP provide measurements related to safety probability. This study focuses on two commonly used approximate probability integration methods; i.e., the Reliability Index Approach (RIA) and the Performance Measurement Approach (PMA). Their reliability sensitivity equations are first derived in this paper, based on the derivatives of their respective optimal solutions. Examples are then provided to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO).

Hou, Gene J.-W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Towards Principled Experimental Study of Autonomous Mobile Robots

We review the current state of research in autonomous mobile robots and conclude that there is an inadequate basis for predicting the reliability and behavior of robots operating in unengineered environments. We present a new approach to the study of autonomous mobile robot performance based on formal statistical analysis of independently reproducible experiments conducted on real robots. Simulators serve as models rather than experimental surrogates. We demonstrate three new results: 1) Two commonly used performance metrics (time and distance) are not as well correlated as is often tacitly assumed. 2) The probability distributions of these performance metrics are exponential rather than normal, and 3) a modular, object-oriented simulation accurately predicts the behavior of the real robot in a statistically significant manner.

Object-Oriented Simulation↗

NASA NTRS1972

Scatter factor and reliability of aircraft structures

The concept of time to first failure is utilized to perform a parameter study of scatter factors of aircraft structures. The Weibull distribution is used for estimation of characteristic and certifiable lives. Scatter factors for various Weibull-shaped parameters, fleet sizes and level of reliabilities are calculated. It is concluded that the currently used range of scatter factors (2 through 4) is too narrow for the estimation of a safe life and that a safe and economical design for structural materials with shape parameters less than 2 does not seem feasible except for very small fleet sizes and low levels of reliability.

Schueller, G. I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Covalently-Bonded Laminar Assembly of Van der Waals Semiconductors with Polymers: Toward High-Performance Flexible Devices

Van der Waals semiconductors (vdWS) offer superior mechanical and electrical properties and are promising for flexible microelectronics when combined with polymer substrates. However, the self-passivated vdWS surfaces and their weak adhesion to polymers tend to cause interfacial sliding and wrinkling, and thus, are still challenging the reliability of vdWS-based flexible devices. Here, in this study, an effective covalent vdWS–polymer lamination method with high stretch tolerance and excellent electronic performance is reported. Using molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) and polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) as a case study, gold–chalcogen bonding and mercapto silane bridges are leveraged. The resulting composite structures exhibit more uniform and stronger interfacial adhesion. This enhanced coupling also enables the observation of a theoretically predicted tension-induced band structure transition in MoS 2 . Moreover, no obvious degradation in the devices’ structural and electrical properties is identified after numerous mechanical cycle tests. This high-quality lamination enhances the reliability of vdWS-based flexible microelectronics, accelerating their practical applications in biomedical research and consumer electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Study of Low-Speed Boundary-Layer Laminar-Turbulent Transition over a 30º Swept Plate in a Channel

Reliable boundary-layer laminar-turbulent transition predictions are critical for the design of aircraft that use natural or controlled laminar flow to achieve low drag and better fuel efficiency. During cruise flight through low turbulence, the three-dimensional boundary layer over swept surfaces can transition prematurely due to stationary crossflow instabilities induced by surface roughness. Parabolized stability equations analyses have been successfully used to explain the different phases of the transition process under well controlled perturbations such as steps or discrete roughness elements. However, methodologies are still lacking to model the boundary layer receptivity to distributed random roughness, and the following non-linear instability stages leading to transition. For engineering applications, several semi-empirical methods based on linear amplification factors or local helicity have found growing adoption, but their reliability is limited by their level of simplification and the sparsity of data they are based on. To address this gap, a new study of the effect of distributed random surface roughness on crossflow transition was started, using a 30◦ swept plate as a test vehicle. The plate, which is mounted in the 2 Foot × 3 Foot Low-Speed Boundary-Layer Channel at the NASA Langley Research Center, has been tested with micro-scale roughness of varied geometry near the leading edge. In order to analyze the flow in the test section and prepare Direct Numerical Simulations with resolved roughness, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of the flow over the plate installed in the wind tunnel test section were performed using the Langtry-Menter transition model with stationary crossflow extension. This paper presents the results of these simulations, with comparison to the experiment.

ARMD↗