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Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

NASA NTRS2003

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Reconstruction and Failure Analysis of The Space Shuttle Columbia

This viewgraph presentation describes a very detailed reconstruction plan and failure analysis of The Space Shuttle Columbia accident. The contents include: 1) STS-107 Timeline; 2) Foam Impact; 3) Recovery; 4) Reconstruction; 5) Reconstruction Plan; 6) Reconstruction Hanger; 7) Pathfinders; 8) Aluminum Pathfinder; 9) Early Analysis - Left MLG Door Area; 10) Emphasis Switched to Left Hand Wing Leading Edge; 11) Wing Leading Edge Subsystem (LESS); 12) 3D Reconstruction of Left WLE; 13) Left Wing Tile Table; 14) LESS Observations; 15) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9 - Slumped Tile; 16) Reconstructed View of LC/P 9 tile with I/B Tile; 17) Reconstructed View of Lower C/P 9 Tile; 18) Carrier Panel 8 - Upper; 19) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9 - Erosion and RCC with attach hole intact; 20) Erosion on Panel 8 Upper Outboard Rib; 21) RCC Panels 8 & 9 Erosion Features; 22) Slumping Source for Carrier Panel 9 Tile was Revealed; 23) Debris Indicated Highest Probability Initiation Site; 24) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9- Metallic Deposits; 25) Relative Metallic Deposition on L/H Wing Materials; 26) Metallic Deposit Example, LH RCC 8; 27) High Level Questions; 28) Analysis Plan Challenges; 29) Analysis Techniques; 30) Analysis Approach; 31) RCC Panel 8 Erosion Features; 32) Radiographic Features; 33) Radiography WLE LH Panel 8; 34) LH RCC 8 Upper Apex; 35) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Thick Tear Shaped; 36) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Thick Globules; 37) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Spheroids; 38) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Uniform Deposit; 39) Significant Findings - Sampling All Other panels; 40) Proposed Breach Location and Plasma Flow; 41) Corroborating Information - RCC Panel Debris Locations; 42) Corroborating Information - LH OMS Pod Analysis; 43) Corroborating Information - Impact Testing; and 44) Overall Forensic Conclusions.

Russell, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Unsteady Analyses and Risk Assessment - Part 2

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Design Support of the feasibility of operating conditions and procedures is critical in such cases due to the possibility of startup/shutdown transients, moving shock structures, unsteady shock-boundary layer interactions and engine and diffuser unstart modes that can result in catastrophic failure. Analyses of such systems is difficult due to resolution requirements needed to accurately capture moving shock structures, shock-boundary layer interactions, two-phase flow regimes and engine unstart modes. In a companion paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD, steady analyses advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in the sub-scale A-3 facility. In this paper we will address transient issues with the operation of the facility especially at startup and shutdown, and assess risks related to afterburning due to the interaction of a fuel rich plume with oxygen that is a by-product of the steam ejectors. The primary areas that will be addressed in this paper are: (1) analyses of unstart modes due to flow transients especially during startup/ignition, (2) engine safety during the shutdown process (3) interaction of steam ejectors with the primary plume i.e. flow transients as well as probability of afterburning. In this abstract we discuss unsteady analyses of the engine shutdown process. However, the final paper will include analyses of a staged startup, drawdown of the engine test cell pressure, and risk assessment of potential afterburning in the facility. Unsteady simulations have been carried out to study the engine shutdown process in the facility and understand the physics behind the interactions between the steam ejectors, the test cell and the supersonic diffuser. As a first approximation, to understand the dominant unsteady mechanisms in the engine test cell and the supersonic diffuser, the turning duct in the facility was removed. As the engine loses power a rarefaction wave travels downstream that disrupts the shock cell structure in the supersonic diffuser. Flow from the test cell is seen to expand into the supersonic diffuser section and re-pressurizes the area around the nozzle along with a upstream traveling compression wave that emanates from near the first stage ejectors. Flow from the first stage ejector expands to the center of the duct and a new shock train is formed between the first and second stage ejectors. Both stage ejectors keep the facility pressurized and prevent any large amplitude pressure fluctuations from affecting the engine nozzle. The resultant pressure loads the nozzle experiences in the shutdown process are small.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scatter in Carbon/Silicon Carbide (C/SiC) Composites Quantified

Carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC) composites processed by chemical vapor infiltration are candidate materials for aerospace thermal structures. Carbon fibers can retain properties at very high temperatures, but they are known to have poor oxidation resistance in adverse, high-temperature environments. Nevertheless, the combination of CVI-SiC matrix with higher stiffness and oxidation resistance, the interfacial coating, and additional surface-seal coating provides the necessary protection to the carbon fibers, and makes the material viable for high-temperature space applications operating under harsh environments. Furthermore, C/SiC composites, like other ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), exhibit graceful non-catastrophic failure because of various inherent energy dissipating mechanisms. The material exhibits nonlinearity in deformation even at very low stress levels. This is the result of the severe matrix microcracking present in the as processed composite because of large differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion of the fiber and the matrix. Utilization of these advanced composites in next generation space vehicles will require innovative structural configurations, updated materials, and refined analyses. Structural safety issues for these vehicles are in direct competition with performance and cost. One would have to quantify the uncertainties associated with the design using formal probabilistic methods. Specifically four fundamental aspects on which analyses are based-- (1) loading conditions, (2) material behavior, (3) geometrical configurations, and (4) structural connections between the composite components and baseline structure--are stochastic in nature. A direct way to formally account for uncertainties is to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods where all participating variables are described by appropriate probability density functions. The present work, however, focuses on analyzing the stochastic material behavior of these advanced composites using formal probabilistic analysis methods. Often, some of the desirable property characteristics that allow composites to offer advantages over conventional structural materials (like tailoring of composite properties) and the complexity are in fact responsible for their greater statistical variability and the requirements for more characterization tests. Composite properties are anisotropic as well, having different properties in different directions. This means that characterization of a property such as stiffness--which will vary greatly depending on the orientation of the fiber relative to the direction of the testing--must be repeated for several different directions and loading conditions. The fabrication process for composites also introduces statistical variations in properties and geometry. A composite part is produced in a number of steps, each of which introduces statistical variability. The matrix is usually produced from a combination of raw materials; and the fiber, which has its own set of properties, is often coated or surface treated, introducing yet another source of variability.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Advanced Health Management Algorithms for Crew Exploration Applications

Achieving the goals of the President's Vision for Exploration will require new and innovative ways to achieve reliability increases of key systems and sub-systems. The most prominent approach used in current systems is to maintain hardware redundancy. This imposes constraints to the system and utilizes weight that could be used for payload for extended lunar, Martian, or other deep space missions. A technique to improve reliability while reducing the system weight and constraints is through the use of an Advanced Health Management System (AHMS). This system contains diagnostic algorithms and decision logic to mitigate or minimize the impact of system anomalies on propulsion system performance throughout the powered flight regime. The purposes of the AHMS are to increase the probability of successfully placing the vehicle into the intended orbit (Earth, Lunar, or Martian escape trajectory), increase the probability of being able to safely execute an abort after it has developed anomalous performance during launch or ascent phases of the mission, and to minimize or mitigate anomalies during the cruise portion of the mission. This is accomplished by improving the knowledge of the state of the propulsion system operation at any given turbomachinery vibration protection logic and an overall system analysis algorithm that utilizes an underlying physical model and a wide array of engine system operational parameters to detect and mitigate predefined engine anomalies. These algorithms are generic enough to be utilized on any propulsion system yet can be easily tailored to each application by changing input data and engine specific parameters. The key to the advancement of such a system is the verification of the algorithms. These algorithms will be validated through the use of a database of nominal and anomalous performance from a large propulsion system where data exists for catastrophic and noncatastrophic propulsion sytem failures.

Davidson, Matt↗

NASA NTRS2010

Estimating the Reliability of a Soyuz Spacecraft Mission

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2010, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system? Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle? Is it safer to continue to fly the 30 year old Shuttle fleet for crew transportation and cargo resupply than the Soyuz? Should we extend the life of the Shuttle Program? How does the development of the Orion/Ares crew transportation system affect these decisions? The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system? Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher? Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success? NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project is currently underway. Though the projects ultimate goal is to return to the Moon and then to Mars, the launch vehicle and spacecraft s first mission will be for crew transportation to and from the ISS. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable? To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques

Lutomski, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process Through Application on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system. APA docs more than simply track experience: it systematically evaluates experience, looking for under-appreciated risks that may warrant changes to design or operational practice. This paper presents the pilot application of the NASA APA process to Space Shuttle Orbiter systems. In this effort, the working sessions conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC) piloted the APA process developed by Information Systems Laboratories (ISL) over the last two years under the auspices of NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance, with the assistance of the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Branch. This process is built around facilitated working sessions involving diverse system experts. One important aspect of this particular APA process is its focus on understanding the physical mechanism responsible for an operational anomaly, followed by evaluation of the risk significance of the observed anomaly as well as consideration of generalizations of the underlying mechanism to other contexts. Model completeness will probably always be an issue, but this process tries to leverage operating experience to the extent possible in order to address completeness issues before a catastrophe occurs.

Maggio, Gaspare↗

NASA NTRS2010

Exploiting Expertise and Knowledge Sharing Online for the Benefit of NASA's GN&C Community of Practice

In 2004, NASA faced major knowledge sharing challenges due to geographically isolated field centers that inhibited engineers from sharing their experiences, expertise, ideas, and lessons learned. The necessity to collaborate on complex development projects and the reality of constrained project resources together drove the need for ensuring that personnel at all NASA centers had comparable skill sets and that engineers could find resources in a timely fashion. Mission failures and new directions for the Agency also demanded better collaborative tools for NASA's engineering workforce. In response to these needs, the online NASA Engineering Network (NEN) was formed by the NASA Office of the Chief Engineer to provide a multi-faceted system for overcoming geographic and cultural barriers. NEN integrates communities of practice with a cross-repository search and the Lessons Learned Information System. This paper describes the features of the GN&C engineering discipline CoP site which went live on NEN in May of 2008 as an online means of gathering input and guidance from practitioners. It allows GN&C discipline expertise captured at one field center to be shared in a collaborative way with the larger discipline CoP spread across the entire Agency. The site enables GN&C engineers to find the information they need quickly, to find solutions to questions from experienced engineers, and to connect with other practitioners regardless of geographic location, thus increasing the probability of project success.

control↗

NASA NTRS2011

Implementation of Enhanced Propulsion Control Modes for Emergency Flight Operation

Aircraft engines can be effective actuators to help pilots avert or recover from emergency situations. Emergency control modes are being developed to enhance the engines performance to increase the probability of recovery under these circumstances. This paper discusses a proposed implementation of an architecture that requests emergency propulsion control modes, allowing the engines to deliver additional performance in emergency situations while still ensuring a specified safety level. In order to determine the appropriate level of engine performance enhancement, information regarding the current emergency scenario (including severity) and current engine health must be known. This enables the engine to operate beyond its nominal range while minimizing overall risk to the aircraft. In this architecture, the flight controller is responsible for determining the severity of the event and the level of engine risk that is acceptable, while the engine controller is responsible for delivering the desired performance within the specified risk range. A control mode selector specifies an appropriate situation-specific enhanced mode, which the engine controller then implements. The enhanced control modes described in this paper provide additional engine thrust or response capabilities through the modification of gains, limits, and the control algorithm, but increase the risk of engine failure. The modifications made to the engine controller to enable the use of the enhanced control modes are described, as are the interaction between the various subsystems and importantly, the interaction between the flight controller/pilot and the propulsion control system. Simulation results demonstrate how the system responds to requests for enhanced operation and the corresponding increase in performance.

Csank, Jeffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Comprehensive Shuttle Foam Debris Reduction Strategies

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) was clear in its assessment of the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia on February 3, 2003. Foam liberated from the External Tank (ET) impacting the brittle wing leading edge (WLE) of the orbiter causing the vehicle to disintegrate upon re-entry. Naturally, the CAB pointed out numerous issues affecting this exact outcome in hopes of correcting systems of systems failures any one of which might have altered the outcome. However, Discovery s recent return to flight (RTF) illustrates the primacy of erosion of foam and the risk of future undesirable outcomes. It is obvious that the original RTF focused approach to this problem was not equal to a comprehensive foam debris reduction activity consistent with the high national value of the Space Shuttle assets. The root cause is really very simple when looking at the spray-on foam insulation for the entire ET as part of the structure (e.g., actual stresses > materials allowable) rather than as some sort of sizehime limited ablator. This step is paramount to accepting the CAB recommendation of eliminating debris or in meeting any level of requirements due to the fundamental processes ensuring structural materials maintain their integrity. Significant effort has been expended to identify root cause of the foam debris In-Flight Anomaly (FA) of STS-114. Absent verifiable location specific data pre-launch (T-0) and in-flight, only a most probable cause can be identified. Indeed, the literature researched corroborates NASNTM-2004-2 13238 disturbing description of ill defined materials characterization, variable supplier constituents and foam processing irregularities. Also, foam is sensitive to age and the exposed environment making baseline comparisons difficult without event driven data. Conventional engineering processes account for such naturally occurring variability by always maintaining positive margins. Success in a negative margin range is not consistently achieved. Looking at the ET S spray-on foam insulation as part of the structural system (e.g., glass half full mentality) will create an environment where ET debris levels as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) can be realized. ALARA is a NASA requirements philosophy deployed for the complex, mission altering radiation exposure requirements for life safety of astronauts. In the Shuttle s case, reasonableness is established by exhaustive engineering rigor, allowable debris size/quantity, technology maturity and programmatic constraints. A more robust urethane foam thermal protection system (TPS) will enhance the hctionality of the new Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) Upper Stage. This paper will outline the strategy for a comprehensive effort to reduce ET foam debris and outline steps leading to an improved foam TPS. The NASA must remain committed to such an approach no matter what becomes of the next flight s actual debris field lest we fall back into a false sense of security. This commitment along with full implementation of all the other CAB recommendations such as orbiter hardening will significantly improve the Shuttle system, the engineering workforce, future capabilities & alternate policy offramps, national human resource protection, high value national asset protection and increase the level of service to the overall NASA mission.

Semmes, Edmund B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing irradiation performance of the Tristructural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in uncertainty of calculated fuel temperature is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance because of fabrication error. A revision to the thermal model was made to examine the most probable offset position for four different dates of interest. The offset position options varied in magnitude and azimuthal direction of offset of the holder top and bottom position. The best-fit offset of the holder is estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of residuals for all operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: 1) During earlier cycles (162A – 164A) when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied in range [0.002 – 0.0035 in.] for both the top and bottom holder while offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the holder bottom. 2) Holder offset led to slightly lower Capsule 1 average temperature, but wider temperature variation (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures). 3) The maximum offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom holder yielded a much higher temperature than the original peak fuel temperature, which increased from 1422 to 1557 ? (or 135 ? increase). This could be one of the reasons for massive particle failure near the end of Cycle 165A. 4) Even though, the highest temperature at the TC-1-7 tip reached slightly higher than 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming a holder offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest. Consequently, at this temperature nickel from this TC wire could cause particle failures in Capsule 1.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Thermal Protection for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle: A Grand Challenge for Design Methodology and Reliability Verification

Mars Sample Return is our Grand Challenge for the coming decade. TPS (Thermal Protection System) nominal performance is not the key challenge. The main difficulty for designers is the need to verify unprecedented reliability for the entry system: current guidelines for prevention of backward contamination require that the probability of spores larger than 1 micron diameter escaping into the Earth environment be lower than 1 million for the entire system, and the allocation to TPS would be more stringent than that. For reference, the reliability allocation for Orion TPS is closer to 11000, and the demonstrated reliability for previous human Earth return systems was closer to 1100. Improving reliability by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a grand challenge indeed. The TPS community must embrace the possibility of new architectures that are focused on reliability above thermal performance and mass efficiency. MSR (Mars Sample Return) EEV (Earth Entry Vehicle) will be hit with MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris) prior to reentry. A chute-less aero-shell design which allows for self-righting shape was baselined in prior MSR studies, with the assumption that a passive system will maximize EEV robustness. Hence the aero-shell along with the TPS has to take ground impact and not break apart. System verification will require testing to establish ablative performance and thermal failure but also testing of damage from MMOD, and structural performance at ground impact. Mission requirements will demand analysis, testing and verification that are focused on establishing reliability of the design. In this proposed talk, we will focus on the grand challenge of MSR EEV TPS and the need for innovative approaches to address challenges in modeling, testing, manufacturing and verification.

Design and Verification for Reliability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tapping into the physiological responses to mistletoe infection during heat and drought stress

Mistletoes are important co-contributors to tree mortality globally, particularly during droughts. In Australia, mistletoe distributions are expanding in temperate woodlands, while their hosts have experienced unprecedented heat and drought stress in recent years. We investigated whether the excessive water use of mistletoes increased the probability of xylem emboli in a mature woodland during the recent record drought that was compounded by multiple heatwaves. Additionally, we continuously recorded transpiration ($T_{SLA}$) of infected and uninfected branches from two eucalypt species over two summers, monitored stem and leaf water potentials ($\Psi $) and used hydraulic vulnerability curves to estimate percent loss in conductivity (PLC) for each species. Variations in weather (vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content), host species and % mistletoe foliage explained 78% of hourly $T_{SLA}$. While mistletoe acted as an uncontrollable sink for water in the host even during typical summer days, daily $T_{SLA}$ increased up to 4-fold in infected branches on hot days, highlighting the previously overlooked importance of temperature stress in amplifying water loss in mistletoes. The increased water use of mistletoes resulted in significantly decreased host $\Psi _{\rm{leaf}}$ and $\Psi _{\rm{trunk}}$. It further translated to an estimated increase of up to 11% PLC for infected hosts, confirming greater hydraulic dysfunction of infected trees that place them at higher risk of hydraulic failure. However, uninfected branches of Eucalyptus fibrosa F.Muell. had much tighter controls on water loss than uninfected branches of Eucalyptus moluccana Roxb., which shifted the risk of hydraulic failure towards an increased risk of carbon starvation for E. fibrosa. The contrasting mechanistic responses to heat and drought stress between both co-occurring species demonstrates the complexity of host–parasite interactions and highlights the challenge in predicting species-specific responses to biotic agents in a warmer and drier climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Piezoelectrically Initiated Pyrotechnic Igniter

This innovation consists of a pyrotechnic initiator and piezoelectric initiation system. The device will be capable of being initiated mechanically; resisting initiation by EMF, RF, and EMI (electromagnetic field, radio frequency, and electromagnetic interference, respectively); and initiating in water environments and space environments. Current devices of this nature are initiated by the mechanical action of a firing pin against a primer. Primers historically are prone to failure. These failures are commonly known as misfires or hang-fires. In many cases, the primer shows the dent where the firing pin struck the primer, but the primer failed to fire. In devices such as "T" handles, which are commonly used to initiate the blowout of canopies, loss of function of the device may result in loss of crew. In devices such as flares or smoke generators, failure can result in failure to spot a downed pilot. The piezoelectrically initiated ignition system consists of a pyrotechnic device that plugs into a mechanical system (activator), which on activation, generates a high-voltage spark. The activator, when released, will strike a stack of electrically linked piezo crystals, generating a high-voltage, low-amperage current that is then conducted to the pyro-initiator. Within the initiator, an electrode releases a spark that passes through a pyrotechnic first-fire mixture, causing it to combust. The combustion of the first-fire initiates a primary pyrotechnic or explosive powder. If used in a "T" handle, the primary would ramp the speed of burn up to the speed of sound, generating a shock wave that would cause a high explosive to go "high order." In a flare or smoke generator, the secondary would produce the heat necessary to ignite the pyrotechnic mixture. The piezo activator subsystem is redundant in that a second stack of crystals would be struck at the same time with the same activation force, doubling the probability of a first strike spark generation. If the first activation fails to ignite, the device is capable of multiple attempts. Another unique aspect is in the design of the pyrotechnic device. There is an electrode that aids the generation of a directed spark and the use of a conductive matrix to support the first-fire material so that the spark will penetrate to the second electrode.

Quince, Asia↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Effect of Interruptions on Part 121 Air Carrier Operations

The primary purpose of this study was to determine the relative priorities of various events and activities by examining the probability that a given activity was interrupted by a given event. The analysis will begin by providing frequency of interruption data by crew position (captain versus first officer) and event type. Any differences in the pattern of interruptions between the first officers and the captains will be explored and interpreted in terms of standard operating procedures. Subsequent data analyses will focus on comparing the frequency of interruptions for different types of activities and for the same activities under normal versus emergency conditions. Briefings and checklists will receive particular attention. The frequency with which specific activities are interrupted under multiple- versus single-task conditions also will be examined; because the majority of multiple-task data were obtained under laboratory conditions, LOFT-type tapes offer a unique opportunity to examine concurrent task performance under 'real-world' conditions. A second purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the interruptions on performance. More specifically, when possible, the time to resume specific activities will be compared to determine if pilots are slower to resume certain types of activities. Errors in resumption or failures to resume specific activities will be noted and any patterns in these errors will be identified. Again, particular attention will be given to the effects of interruptions on the completion of checklists and briefings. Other types of errors and missed events (i.e., the crew should have responded to the event but did not) will be examined. Any methodology using interruptions to examine task prioritization must be able to identify when an interruption has occurred and describe the ongoing activities that were interrupted. Both of these methodological problems are discussed In detail in the following section,

Damos, Diane L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Risk Assessment and Control through Countermeasure System Iplementation for Long-term Crew Exposure to Microgravity

Experience with the International Space Station (ISS) program demonstrates the degree to which engineering design and operational solutions must protect crewmembers from health risks due to long-term exposure to the microgravity environment. Risks to safety and health due to degradation in the microgravity environment include crew inability to complete emergency or nominal activities, increased risk of injury, and inability to complete safe return to the ground due to reduced strength or embrittled bones. These risks without controls slowly increase in probability for the length of the mission and become more significant for increasing mission durations. Countermeasures to microgravity include hardware systems that place a crewmember s body under elevated stress to produce an effect similar to daily exposure to gravity. The ISS countermeasure system is predominately composed of customized exercise machines. Historical treatment of microgravity countermeasure systems as medical research experiments unintentionally reduced the foreseen importance and therefore the capability of the systems to function in a long-term operational role. Long-term hazardous effects and steadily increasing operational risks due to non-functional countermeasure equipment require a more rigorous design approach and incorporation of redundancy into seemingly non- mission-critical hardware systems. Variations in the rate of health degradation and responsiveness to countermeasures among the crew population drastically increase the challenge for design requirements development and verification of the appropriate risk control strategy. The long-term nature of the hazards and severe limits on logistical re-supply mass, volume and frequency complicates assessment of hardware availability and verification of an adequate maintenance and sparing plan. Design achievement of medically defined performance requirements by microgravity countermeasure systems and incorporation of adequate failure tolerance significantly reduces these risks. Future implementation of on-site monitoring hardware for critical health parameters such as bone mineral density would allow greater responsiveness, efficiency, and optimized design of the countermeasures system.

Gernand, Jeremy M.↗