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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Absolute Hugoniot measurements in low-density plastic foams on the NIKE shock compression platform

The propagation of Mbar-range shock waves in low-density foam materials is of interest to target design in all approaches to inertial confinement fusion, high energy density physics, and laboratory astrophysics. We report absolute Hugoniot measurements for CH 1.72 N 0.086 O 0.37 plastic foams with 73 and 94 mg/cm 3 densities in the 32–107 km/s shock velocity range. The experiments were performed on the shock compression platform developed on the NIKE KrF laser facility at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. NIKE's 4 or 8-ns long flat-top laser pulses drive steady shock waves into foam targets at the ablative pressures of 1–7 Mbar. The propagation of the ablation and shock fronts is tracked continuously in time using streaked side-on monochromatic x-ray imaging radiography. The straight x−t trajectories of the shock and ablation fronts in the recorded streak images confirmed their steadiness. The SESAME tabulated equation of state predictions generally agrees with our Hugoniot data within a 95% confidence band. The experimental uncertainty of the evaluated shock density compression ratios remains large, indicating the need for more experiments and improved theoretical understanding of the strong shock propagation mechanisms in dry foams.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies from broadband and wide photometric surveys

In this paper, we investigate the possibility of selecting high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies (LBG) using current and future broadband wide photometric surveys, such as the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS) or the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), using a Random Forest algorithm. This work is conducted in the context of future large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys like DESI-II, the next phase of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which will start around 2029.We use deep imaging data from the Hyper Suprime Camera (HSC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Large Area U-band Deep Survey (CLAUDS) on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. To predict the selection performance of LBGs with image quality similar to UNIONS, we degrade the u,g,r,i and z bands to UNIONS depth.The Random Forest algorithm is trained with the u,g,r,i and z bands to classify LBGs in the 2.5 < z < 3.5 range.We find that fixing a target density budget of 1,100 deg$^{-2}$, the Random Forest approach gives a density of z > 2 targets of 873 deg$^{-2}$, and a density of 493 deg$^{-2}$ of confirmed LBGs after spectroscopic confirmation with DESI. This UNIONS-like selection was tested in a dedicated spectroscopic observation campaign of 1,000 targets with DESI on the COSMOS field, providing a safe spectroscopic sample with a mean redshift of 3. This sample is used to derive forecasts for DESI-II, assuming a sky coverage of 5,000 deg$^{2}$. We predict uncertainties on Alcock-Paczynski parameters α$_{⊥}$ and α$_{∥}$ to be 0.7% and 1% for 2.6 < z < 3.2, resulting in a potential 2% measurement of the dark energy fraction at high redshift. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty in local non-Gaussianity and predict σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 7, which would be comparable to the current best precision achieved by Planck. The latter forecast suggests that achieving the precision required to place stringent constraints on inflationary models (σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 1) using spectroscopic galaxy surveys necessitates the development of a next-generation (Stage V) spectroscopic survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of Desalination Systems with Detailed Water Chemistry through Integration of Reaktoro in WaterTAP

Chemistry predictions are critical for an accurate estimation of performance and costs in desalination process models, which allows for the estimation of the value of new technologies and the viability of treating new water sources. Herein, we present how an implicit function formulation can be used to integrate the chemical modeling package, Reaktoro, into the techno-economic assessment and modeling platform, WaterTAP. This approach resolves the critical issues of integrating large-scale thermodynamic models and databases into equation-oriented process models while allowing more flexibility relative to previously presented surrogate-based methods. We describe how this integration into Pyomo and WaterTAP models is implemented and used through the open-source package Reaktoro-PSE . We first validate this integration approach by performing optimization on a previously presented desalination treatment train with softening and acid addition as the pretreatment steps. Then, to demonstrate the value of this approach, we extend the cost-optimization problem to include the simultaneous addition of lime and soda ash for softening, and HCl and H 2 SO 4 in the acidification steps. Finally, we were able to confirm the previously established results that were obtained by using surrogate models and demonstrate that the implicit function approach enables exploration of different feedwater compositions and a larger number of chemicals and their combinations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr-1 (6.56×104 km3 yr-1) to 617.1 mm yr-1 (6.87×10 4 km3 yr -1 ). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr -2 , p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr -1 . Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Guiding Principles for Geochemical/Thermodynamic Model Development and Validation in Nuclear Waste Disposal: A Close Examination of Recent Thermodynamic Models for H + —Nd 3+ —NO 3 - (—Oxalate) Systems

Development of a defensible source-term model (STM), usually a thermodynamical model for radionuclide solubility calculations, is critical to a performance assessment (PA) of a geologic repository for nuclear waste disposal. Such a model is generally subjected to rigorous regulatory scrutiny. In this article, we highlight key guiding principles for STM model development and validation in nuclear waste management. We illustrate these principles by closely examining three recently developed thermodynamic models with the Pitzer formulism for aqueous H + —Nd 3+ —NO 3 - (—oxalate) systems in a reverse alphabetical order of the authors: the XW model developed by Xiong and Wang, the OWC model developed by Oakes et al., and the GLC model developed by Guignot et al., among which the XW model deals with trace activity coefficients for Nd(III), while the OWC and GLC models are for concentrated Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The principles highlighted include the following: (1) Principle 1. Validation against independent experimental data: A model should be validated against experimental data or field observations that have not been used in the original model parameterization. We tested the XW model against multiple independent experimental data sets including electromotive force (EMF), solubility, water vapor, and water activity measurements. The results show that the XW model is accurate and valid for its intended use for predicting trace activity coefficients and therefore Nd solubility in repository environments. (2) Principle 2. Testing for relevant and sensitive variables: Solution pH is such a variable for an STM and easily acquirable. All three models are checked for their ability to predict pH conditions in Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The OWC model fails to provide a reasonable estimate for solution pH conditions, thus casting serious doubt on its validity for a source-term calculation. In contrast, both the XW and GLC models predict close-to-neutral pH values, in agreement with experimental measurements. (3) Principle 3. Honoring physical constraints: Upon close examination, it is found that the Nd(III)-NO 3 association schema in the OWC model suffers from two shortcomings. Firstly, its second stepwise stability constant for Nd(NO 3 ) 2+ (log K 2 ) is much higher than the first stepwise stability constant for NdNO 3 2+ (log K 1 ), thus violating the general rule of (log K 2 –log K 1 ) < 0, or $\frac{K1}{K2}$>1. Secondly, the OWC model predicts abnormally high activity coefficients for Nd(NO 3 ) 2 + (up to ~900) as the concentration increases. (4) Principle 4. Minimizing degrees of freedom for model fitting: The OWC model with nine fitted parameters is compared with the GLC model with five fitted parameters, as both models apply to the concentrated region for Nd(NO 3 ) 3 electrolyte solutions. The latter appears superior to the former because the latter can fit osmotic coefficient data equally well with fewer model parameters. The work presented here thus illustrates the salient points of geochemical model development, selection, and validation in nuclear waste management.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

DELVE Milky Way Satellite Galaxy Census. I. Satellite Population and Survey Selection Function in DES, DELVE, and Pan-STARRS

The properties of Milky Way satellite galaxies have important implications for galaxy formation, reionization, and the fundamental physics of dark matter. However, the population of Milky Way satellites includes the faintest known galaxies, and current observations are incomplete. To understand the impact of observational selection effects on the known satellite population, we perform rigorous, quantitative estimates of the Milky Way satellite galaxy detection efficiency in three wide-field survey datasets: the Dark Energy Survey Year 6, the DECam Local Volume Exploration Data Release 3, and the Pan-STARRS1 Data Release 1. Together, these surveys cover ∼13,600 deg 2 to g ∼ 24.0 and ∼27,700 deg 2 to g ∼ 22.5, spanning ∼91% of the high-Galactic-latitude sky (∣b∣ ≥ 15°). We apply multiple detection algorithms over the combined footprint and recover 49 known satellites above a strict census detection threshold. To characterize the sensitivity of our census, we run our detection algorithms on a large set of simulated galaxies injected into the survey data, which allows us to develop models that predict the detectability of satellites as a function of their properties. We then fit an empirical model to our data and infer the luminosity function, radial distribution, and size–luminosity relation of Milky Way satellite galaxies. Our empirical model predicts a total of $265^{+79}_{-47}$ satellite galaxies with −20 ≤ M V ≤ 0, half-light radii of 15 ≤ r 1/2 , (pc) ≤ 3000, and galactocentric distances of 10 ≤ D GC (kpc) ≤ 300. We also identify a mild anisotropy in the angular distribution of the observed galaxies, at a significance of ∼2σ, which can be attributed to the clustering of satellites associated with the LMC.

Tan, Chin Yi [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and controllability of radiated power via extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity plasmas in DIII-D

Experiments with extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity shapes in DIII-D achieved radiated power fractions (relative to input power) of up to ≈85% total radiation and ≈55% core radiation in steady-operating conditions. The relationship between core and total radiation was sensitive to impurity species and input power. Attempts to reach higher radiation levels via higher impurity flows resulted in radiative collapse disruptions. Nitrogen, neon, argon, and krypton were tested. Injection was by gas puffing, usually controlled by feeding back real-time estimates for core or total radiating fractions ($P_\textrm{rad} / P_\textrm{input}$). Argon and krypton were controlled by feeding back total radiating fraction, whereas neon was controlled by feeding back the core radiating fraction, due to the lower efficiency of neon as a divertor radiator. Nitrogen flows were pre-programmed. Reasonable total $P_\textrm{rad}$ control target following was achieved with argon or krypton. Control was more challenging with the neon/core radiation configuration, which was more prone to slow response and overshooting of the control target. Poor particle removal contributed to the control challenge: neon particle inventory within the last closed flux surface was roughly constant for up to 1 s (the longest duration tested) after neon injection was halted. However, separate experiments with laser-blow off of non-recycling impurities measured a short impurity confinement time, on the scale of the energy confinement time of ∼100 ms. Modeling with the Aurora impurity transport simulation matched experimental neon density profiles with full recycling (R = 1.0) and weak pumping but predicted rapid decreases in neon inventory if pumping were increased or recycling decreased. This indicates that changes outside the confined plasma (adding a well-placed pump) would improve controllability for all highly recycling species.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Cosmic Filaments on Galaxy Morphological Evolution and Predictions of Early Cosmic Web Structure for Roman

We leverage the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulations to test how the large-scale cosmic web shapes galaxy morphology and to forecast the early cosmic web structure that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will reveal. In the hydrodynamic TNG50 and N-body TNG50-Dark runs, we reconstruct the cosmic web at redshifts z = 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 4 with the Monte Carlo Physarum Machine density estimator and the DisPerSE structure identification framework. We confirm that dark matter halos start out predominantly prolate (elongated), and their shapes are aligned with their nearest filaments; prolate galaxies retain strong shape alignment with their outer halos to later times. At z ≥ 1, the fraction of prolate (spheroidal) halos increases (decreases) toward lower stellar mass, higher redshift, and lower filament density. At z < 1, more spheroidal (oblate) stellar structures preferentially reside in higher-density (lower-density) filaments. We also find that higher-density filaments favor extended rotationally supported disks, whereas lower-density filaments more often host smaller dispersion-supported systems. Then, generating mock galaxy samples from TNG100 and TNG50, we predict the early cosmic web accessible to Roman. We find that the spectroscopic emission-line depth planned for the High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey (HLWAS) yields a highly incomplete galaxy sample that does not accurately trace the z = 1 cosmic web. A survey ≥2.5× deeper over a few square degrees would enable a proper reconstruction and reveal qualitatively correct filament–galaxy morphology relationships. Nevertheless, the planned HLWAS Deep field should still identify most galaxy overdensities; targeted deeper spectroscopy of these regions would efficiently and adequately map the early filamentary structure.

Hasan, Farhanul [Space Telescope Science Institute↗
DOE OSTI2023

Code Benchmark of the HTTF Pressurized Conduction Cooldown Test Using SAM

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University is an integral system test facility to simulate postulated reactor transients of prismatic high-temperature gas-cooled reactors(HTGRs). A series of test campaigns was launched, providing abundant test data that could be used to benchmark reactor system analysis codes like the System Analysis Module (SAM). In this study, a SAM model of the facility is developed based on the two-dimensional (2D) ring model approach. All components including the ceramic matrix, graphite heaters, helium coolant channels, core barrel, upcomer, pressure vessel, and reactor cavity cooling system are modeled as concentric cylindrical rings. The model is used to simulate one of the benchmark problems-Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC)-within the scope of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency International HTTF Benchmark. The simulations consist of two parts. In the first part, operating and boundary conditions as well as thermophysical properties of materials are specified for the benchmark problem. In this work, results from the first part will be used in code-to-code comparison. In the second part, the SAM model is used to simulate Test PG-27, which is the first PCC test carried out in the HTTF, with only two of the ten heater banks activated. The results in the second part are used for code-to-data comparison. Because the helium coolant flow rate is not measured in this facility, it is estimated using the input power and inlet/outlet coolant temperatures. Additionally, radial heat flow in the ceramic blocks is complicated by hundreds of cylindrical coolant channels and heater rods embedded in them. As such, it is necessary to deduce an effective thermal conductivity for the ceramic to analyze the core thermal behavior. SAM predictions of the helium coolant and ceramic temperatures are compared with test data measured in three equivalent sectors. Overall, the SAM results agree reasonably well with test data within the variation of data among the three sectors, which demonstrates SAM's capability in capturing transient effects in HTGR using the simplified 2D ring model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Feedstock Partnership Biomass Quality Assessment Final Report

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) developed the Billion-Ton Vision to enable production of one-billion tons of sustainable, reliable biomass for the bioenergy industry by 2030 (Perlack et al., 2005). The Sun Grant Regional Feedstock Partnership (RFP) was organized to fill information gaps and validate biomass yield assumptions related to the Billion-Ton Study (Owens, 2018; Owens, Karlen, and Lacey, 2016). Along with the more than 130 scientific publications generated from these studies, yield and sustainability data from the RFP field trials not only validated the Billion-Ton estimates, but were critical in developing both the U.S. Billion-Ton Update report in 2011 and the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (DOE, 2011; 2016). The intention of this biomass quality assessment report is to build on these initial successes from the RFP field trials by focusing on variability in biomass quality data necessary to evaluate conversion performance. This report contains a summary of chemical quality results from samples collected as part of the RFP field trials. This report focuses on assessment of the impact of experimental agronomic designs on biomass properties followed by analyses of the impact of environmental and production variables on biomass properties. Datasets include species and other genetic variables, fertilizer treatments, harvest information, and yield, as well as other publicly available data such as precipitation, temperature, soil properties, and drought. The key outcomes from this chemical quality focused assessment have included: • Complete evaluation of the impacts of agronomic designs, genetics, and environmental conditions on chemical properties for Miscanthus, switchgrass, sorghum, energycane, mixed perennial grasses, and shrub willow short-rotation feedstocks • Over 30 peer review publications and technical reports focused on variability in quality data • Development of spatial and temporal environmental quality prediction maps for Miscanthus and switchgrass feedstocks allowing for comprehensive evaluation of variability in feedstock chemical quality across U.S. regions and over multiple harvest years

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriching OpenStreetMap network data for transportation applications: Insights into the impact of urban congestion on accessibility

OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is a valuable open-source resource for various transportation, traffic, and planning applications. However, OSM network data lack operating traffic speed information, which is critical for transport planning and operations. Addressing this shortcoming, this study leverages commercial vendor data (to serve as ground truth) with exogenous, open-source variables characterizing local transport infrastructure, land use, and demographic information to predict average congested traffic speeds on OSM networks. Three machine-learning models were tested and estimated for OSM links with and without speed limit information in the Denver metropolitan region. Among these, XGBoost performed best, with mean absolute errors of 3.27 and 3.62 mph for links with and without speed limits, respectively. The developed models accurately predicted traffic speeds for different hours and days of the week compared to ground truth data. Using these predicted speeds, drive accessibility scores were computed for the Denver region for different time periods using the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric to understand the impact of congestion on energy-efficient accessibility. Results show that congestion-adjusted drive accessibility can be significantly lower compared to accessibility calculated using free flow speeds. Specifically, weekday evening hours saw a 42 % drop in accessibility due to reduced speeds, particularly around downtown Denver. Across the Denver metro region, approximately half as many opportunities and jobs are accessible in under 20 min by car during the evening peak period relative to free flow conditions. These findings underscore the importance of using congestion-adjusted operating speeds rather than speed limits in accessibility calculations, as reliance on speed limits can substantially overestimate energy-efficient drive accessibility in large, car-centric cities susceptible to significant congestion. In conclusion, the methodology presented here could further enrich OSM network data, making them useful for an even broader range of transportation applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-distribution detection with non-parametric density estimation for models predicting processing history of uranium ore concentrates

The rapid advancement in machine learning (ML) and computer vision (CV) coincides with the growth of interest in deploying these ML/CV models in numerous fields from medicine to social science. Similar to those areas, we have witnessed a great number of works in materials science employing ML/CV models – neural networks in particular – in their studies in recent years. These models have proven to obtain accurate performance in various tasks. However, these models struggle to attain a similar performance when encountering test samples coming from a distribution that is different from the training set. More importantly, they fail without providing any warning to the users. Therefore, we propose a framework for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples to alert users when a human intervention might be necessary in this work. Specifically, we explore the use of a non-parametric density estimation method to detect OOD samples. Here, we assess OOD detection capability of the proposed framework on ML models developed for categorizing precipitation routes of U 3 O 8 when encountering OOD datasets that contain samples (1) undergone different imaging acquisition process, (2) undergone different material synthesis process, and (3) different materials than ID set. Through those experiments, we achieve an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of at least 91% on average in detecting OOD samples. With minimal overhead cost and superior performance, the proposed framework enables a reliable and safe system when deploying in real-world scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feature engineering for machine learning enabled early prediction of battery lifetime

Accurate battery lifetime estimates enable accelerated design of novel battery materials and determination of optimal use protocols for longevity in deployments. Unfortunately, traditional battery testing may take years to reach thousands of cycles. Recent studies have shown that machine learning (ML) tools can predict lithium-ion battery lifetimes from 100 or fewer preliminary cycles, representing only a few weeks of cycling. Until now, conclusions about the efficacy and broad applicability of these predictions across a variety of cathode chemistries have been limited by available experimental information. In this work, we leverage a battery cycling dataset representing six cathode chemistries (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, NMC811, HE5050, and 5Vspinel), multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and 300 total carefully prepared pouch batteries to explore feature selection and battery chemistry's role in ML battery lifetime predictions. Here, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 78 cycles in prediction was seen for a chemistry-spanning test set from 100 preliminary cycles. Furthermore, an MAE of 103 cycles was seen when using only the first cycle. This study represents an in-depth investigation of strategies for feature selection for battery lifetime prediction, ML models' generalization across multiple battery chemistries, and predictions beyond the training set in the chemical space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗