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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2019 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the ninth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review

This report uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based and offshore wind power plants in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2020 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This report represents the tenth annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review [Slides]

This analysis uses representative utility-scale and distributed wind energy projects to estimate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for land-based, offshore, and distributed wind power in the United States. Data and results detailed here are derived from 2021 commissioned plants and representative industry data as well as state-of-the-art modeling capabilities. Modeling is conducted to provide more granular detail on specific cost categories. This study represents the 11th annual installment and is intended to provide insight into current component-level costs as well as a basis for understanding variability in wind energy LCOE across the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)

This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2003

Characterization of the Crab Pulsar's Timing Noise

We present a power spectral analysis of the Crab pulsar's timing noise, mainly using radio measurements from Jodrell Bank taken over the period 1982-1989, an interval bounded by sparse data sampling and a large glitch. The power spectral analysis is complicated by nonuniform data sampling and the presence of a steep red power spectrum that can distort power spectra measurement by causing severe power 'leakage'. We develop a simple windowing method for computing red noise power spectra of uniformly sampled data sets and test it on Monte Carlo generated sample realizations of red power-law noise. We generalize time-domain methods of generating power-law red noise with even integer spectral indices to the case of noninteger spectral indices. The Jodrell Bank pulse phase residuals are dense and smooth enough that an interpolation onto a uniform time series is possible. A windowed power spectrum is computed revealing a periodic or nearly periodic component with a period of 568 +/- 10 days and a l/f(exp 3) power-law noise component in pulse phase with a noise strength S(sub infinity)=(1.24 +/- 0.067) x 10(exp 16) cycles(exp 2)/sec(exp 2) over the analysis frequency range f=0.003- 0.1 cycles/day. This result deviates from past analyses which characterized the pulse phase timing residuals as either l/f(sub 4) power-law noise or a quasiperiodic process. The analysis was checked using the Deeter polynomial method of power spectrum estimation that was developed for the case of nonuniform sampling, but has lower spectral resolution. The timing noise is consistent with a torque noise spectrum rising with analysis frequency as f implying blue torque noise, a result not predicted by current models of pulsar timing noise. If the periodic or nearly periodic component is due to a binary companion, we find a mass function f(M) = (6.8 +/- 2.4) x 10(exp -16) solar mass and a companion mass, M(sub c) is greater than or equal to 3.2 solar mass assuming a Crab pulsar mass of 1.4 solar mass.

Scott, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Improved Discrimination of Volcanic Complexes, Tectonic Features, and Regolith Properties in Mare Serenitatis from Earth-Based Radar Mapping

Radar images at 70 cm wavelength show 4-5 dB variations in backscatter strength within regions of relatively uniform spectral reflectance properties in central and northern Mare Serenitatis, delineating features suggesting lava flow margins, channels, and superposition relationships. These backscatter differences are much less pronounced at 12.6 cm wavelength, consistent with a large component of the 70 cm echo arising from the rough or blocky transition zone between the mare regolith and the intact bedrock. Such deep probing is possible because the ilmenite content, which modulates microwave losses, of central Mare Serenitatis is generally low (2-3% by weight). Modeling of the radar returns from a buried interface shows that an average regolith thickness of 10m could lead to the observed shifts in 70 cm echo power with a change in TiO2 content from 2% to 3%. This thickness is consistent with estimates of regolith depth (10-15m) based on the smallest diameter for which fresh craters have obvious blocky ejecta. The 70 cm backscatter differences provide a view of mare flow-unit boundaries, channels, and lobes unseen by other remote sensing methods. A localized pyroclastic deposit associated with Rima Calippus is identified based on its low radar echo strength. Radar mapping also improves delineation of units for crater age dating and highlights a 250 km long, east-west trending feature in northern Mare Serenitatis that we suggest is a large graben flooded by late-stage mare flows.

Radar echoes↗

NASA NTRS2020

Electric Propulsion for the Psyche Mission: Development Activities and Status

NASA’s Psyche mission will launch in 2022 and begin a 3.6-year cruise to the metallic asteroid Psyche, where it will examine this unique body. The baseline spacecraft design is a hybrid of JPL’s deep-space heritage subsystems with commercial partner Maxar’s electric propulsion, power, and structure subsystems. All primary propulsion will be done with SPT-140 thrusters, which will be the first use of Hall thrusters for a NASA mission. The electric propulsion subsystem and its implementation for the Psyche mission are described here. Major testing activities have included the successful completion of subsystem integrated testing with the design modifications required for Psyche, and a series of low-power thrust repeatability tests that were performed in support of navigation analyses. Thruster performance models have been further validated with new SPT-140 flight data, and new analyses of thruster swirl torque have been performed that result in much higher values than previously estimated. Analysis of recent Maxar flight data has also provided a new understanding of in-flight propellant usage uncertainties. Subsystem integration and test activities are now underway and the status and plans are discussed.

Johnson, Ian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real time evolution for ultracompact Hamiltonian eigenstates on quantum hardware

In this work we present a detailed analysis of variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE), a method based on real-time evolution for ground and excited state estimation on near-term hardware. We derive the theoretical ground on which the approach stands, and demonstrate that it provides one of the most compact variational expansions to date for solving strongly correlated Hamiltonians. At the center of VQPE lies a set of equations, with a simple geometrical interpretation, which provides conditions for the time evolution grid in order to decouple eigenstates out of the set of time evolved expansion states, and connects the method to the classical filter diagonalization algorithm. Further, we introduce what we call the unitary formulation of VQPE, in which the number of matrix elements that need to be measured scales linearly with the number of expansion states, and we provide an analysis of the effects of noise which substantially improves previous considerations. The unitary formulation allows for a direct comparison to iterative phase estimation. Our results mark VQPE as both a natural and highly efficient quantum algorithm for ground and excited state calculations of general many-body systems. We demonstrate a hardware implementation of VQPE for the transverse field Ising model. Further, we illustrate its power on a paradigmatic example of strong correlation (Cr2 in the SVP basis set), and show that it is possible to reach chemical accuracy with as few as ~50 timesteps.

Klymko, Katherine↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗

NASA NTRS1995

The luminosity function of quasars

We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.

Pei, Yichuan C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of MHD stability and active mode control on KSTAR for high confinement, disruption-free plasma

Long-pulse plasma operation at high normalized beta, $β_N$, above the $\textit{n}$= 1 ideal MHD no-wall stability limit in KSTAR is presently limited by tearing instabilities rather than resistive wall modes. H-mode plasma operation during the recent KSTAR device campaign produced discharges having strong $\textit{m/n}$= 2/1 tearing instabilities at $β_N$ lower than the ideal MHD no-wall beta limit. The unstable tearing mode consequently reduced plasma confinement and toroidal plasma rotation significantly. We report the experiment confirmed that an extended duration of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) at the initial phase of the discharge plays a critical role in mode destabilization. To study destabilizing mechanisms that affect the mode growth, the stability of the observed tearing modes from plasmas with significantly different $β_N$ is computed by using the resistive DCON code and the M3D-C 1 code. Equilibrium reconstructions that include constraints from internal profile diagnostics, and computed fast particle pressure are used as input for reliable computation of stability. The classical tearing stability index, Δ', from resistive DCON is computed to be unstable when the island is fully saturated with large amplitude, while the unstable mode is not computed by M3D-C 1 . The modified Rutherford equation (MRE) describing the evolution of the island width has been constructed for KSTAR plasmas by using plasma parameters computed by the TRANSP code. The MRE model estimates a saturated island width corresponding to ~10% of the plasma minor radius for equilibrium at high $β_N$ 3 having a stable Δ' from the resistive DCON. In preparation for long-pulse plasma operation at higher beta utilizing increased plasma heating power, a resistive wall mode (RWM) active feedback control algorithm has been completed and enabled on KSTAR. To accurately determine the $\textit{n}$= 1component produced by RWMs, an algorithm has been developed that includes magnetic sensor compensation of the prompt applied field and the field from the induced current on the passive conductors. Use of multiple toroidal sensor arrays is enabled by modifying the sensor toroidal angles assumed in mode decomposition to include the effect of varied mode helicities in the outboard region where the mode measurement is made. This analysis on stability, transport, and control provides the required foundation for disruption prediction and avoidance research on KSTAR.

resistive wall mode (RWM)↗

NASA NTRS1982

NASA Redox cell stack shunt current, pumping power, and cell performance tradeoffs

The NASA Redox energy storage system is under active technology development. The hardware undergoing laboratory testing is either 310 sq. cm. or 929 sq. cm. (0.33 sq. ft. or 1.0 sq. ft. per cell active area with up to 40 individual cells connected to make up a modular cell stack. This size of hardware allows rather accurate projections to be made of the shunt power/pump power tradeoffs. The modeling studies that were completed on the system concept are reviewed along with the approach of mapping the performance of Redox cells over a wide range of flow rates and depths of discharge of the Redox solutions. Methods are outlined for estimating the pumping and shunt current losses for any type of cell and stack combination. These methods are applicable to a variety of pumping options that are present with Redox systems. The results show that a fully developed Redox system has acceptable parasitic losses when using a fixed flow rate adequate to meet the worst conditions of current density and depth of discharge. These losses are reduced by about 65 percent if variable flow schedules are used. The exact value of the overall parasitics will depend on the specific system requirements of current density, voltage limits, charge, discharge time, etc.

Hagedorn, N.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The kinematic Stirling engine as an energy conversion subsystem for paraboloidal dish solar thermal plants

The potential of a suitably designed and economically manufactured Stirling engine as the energy conversion subsystem of a paraboloidal dish-Stirling solar thermal power module was estimated. Results obtained by elementary cycle analyses were shown to match quite well the performance characteristics of an advanced kinematic Stirling engine, the United Stirling P-40, as established by current prototypes of the engine and by a more sophisticated analytic model of its advanced derivative. In addition to performance, brief consideration was given to other Stirling engine criteria such as durability, reliability, and serviceability. Production costs were not considered here.

Bowyer, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

X-ray, optical and UV observations of the young supernova remnant in the irregular galaxy NGC 4449

A powerful young supernova remnant (SNR) similar to Cas A has recently been discovered in the irregular galaxy NGC 4449. X-ray, optical and ultraviolet data have been obtained which allow possible models for this object to be investigated and its age to be estimated. Several lines of argument indicate a massive star of order 25 solar masses as the precursor to this remnant. If the X-ray emision is attributed to a reverse shock in the ejecta, the remnant should be about 120 years old.

Blair, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Observations of solar-flare ionization in the mesosphere using coherent-scatter radar

Observations of solar-flare ionization in the mesosphere can be made using coherent-scatter radar systems. The scattered power profiles they measure in the 60-90 km altitude region is a function of the ion concentration gradient and the intensity of turbulent mixing at each altitude. By comparing the power profiles before, during and after a solar flare, it is possible to estimate the ion production rate during the flare as a function of altitude and time. This analysis is used to compare the ion production rates with generally accepted ion-chemical models. Comparisons are made with ion production rates estimated from the solar X-ray flux for the same flare made by geostationary satellites.

Parker, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme particle events and coronal mass ejections, or predict their fluences and geo-severity in the 24-hrs prior to the event, appears to be no better than 50/50. If the events of the 1859 superstorm serve as a guide, the scope of a contemporary superstorm will most certainly be an awesome event, but one that the vast majority of our other satellite resources may reasonably be expected to survive.

Odenwald, Sten↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Meteorological Model's Dependence on Radiation Update Frequency

Numerical weather models are used to simulate circulations in the atmosphere including clouds and precipitation by applying a set of mathematical equations over a three-dimensional grid. The grid is composed of discrete points at which the meteorological variables are defined. As computing power continues to rise these models are being used at finer grid spacing, but they must still cover a wide range of scales. Some of the physics that must be accounted for in the model cannot be explicitly resolved, and their effects, therefore, must be estimated or "parameterized". Some of these parameterizations are computationally expensive. To alleviate the problem, they are not always updated at the time resolution of the model with the assumption being that the impact will be small. In this study, a coupled land-atmosphere model is used to assess the impact of less frequent updates of the computationally expensive radiation physics for a case on June 6, 2002, that occurred during a field experiment over the central plains known as International H20 Project (IHOP). The model was tested using both the original conditions, which were dry, and with modified conditions wherein moisture was added to the lower part of the atmosphere to produce clouds and precipitation (i.e., a wet case). For each of the conditions (i.e., dry and wet), four set of experiments were conducted wherein the model was run for a period of 24 hours and the radiation fields (including both incoming solar and outgoing longwave) were updated every 1, 3, 10, and 100 time steps. Statistical tests indicated that average quantities of surface variables for both the dry and wet cases were the same for the various update frequencies. However, spatially the results could be quite different especially in the wet case after it began to rain. The near-surface wind field was found to be different most of the time even for the dry case. In the wet case, rain intensities and average vertical profiles of heating associated with cloudy areas were found to differ for the various radiation update frequencies. The latter implies that the mean state of the model could be different as a result of not updating the radiation fields every time step and has important implications for longer term climate studies

Eastman, Joseph L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Adaptive Control Allocation for Powered Descent Vehicles

The following work details a study into real-time failure adaptive control allocation method for powered descent vehicle systems. The motivation for this work is to enable future human and robotic missions utilizing a powered descent system to tolerate engine failures in flight without the loss of crew or assets. This study is conducted using a six degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation of a PDV (Powered Descent Vehicle) experiencing either a loss of thrust or an engine stuck full on failure scenario. Sequential least squares in the frequency domain is used on-board to process inertial measurement unit (IMU) data and generate an estimate of the PDV plant model, which is then fed to the guidance and control system. Data used by the sequential least squares method is generated from an in-flight maneuver. The work herein focuses on determining a maneuver that is least impactful to the PDV trajectory and enables a suitable plant model estimate. A 1.5-second-long maneuver with an amplitude of 5 percent throttle is determined to provide suitable data for the sequential least squares method to estimate a plant model. A PDV implementing this method can adapt to a single engine failure and continue to reach its touchdown conditions.

Green, Justin S.↗