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DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Sensitivity of Simulated Biomass Burning Aerosol Transport and Radiative Effects Over the South Atlantic to Carbonaceous Aerosol Aging and Particle Density

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) impacts climate through aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions, but models disagree on the sign and magnitude of BBA radiative effects. We quantify the sensitivity of BBA radiative effects and transport to three BBA‐relevant processes and properties: parameterized oxidative aging of organic aerosol (OA), a combined change to black carbon (BC) density and the method for calculating aerosol refractive index, and reduction in OA density. We evaluate Unified Model simulations against two aircraft campaigns from summer 2017 over the Southeast Atlantic. The model generally performs well, such that discrepancies between the observational data sets may sometimes limit the precision of the evaluation. Our newly developed aging parameterization reproduces observed OA:BC mass ratios well and allows modeled OA:BC to decrease with smoke age, but increases bias in aerosol extinction and changes the BBA radiative effect little (+0.12 W m -2 ). We calculate aerosol refractive index using either a volume‐weighted component average or the Maxwell‐Garnett (MG) mixing assumption, which represents BC as small inclusions in a host material. Compared to MG mixing, the volume‐weighted average refractive index and reduced BC density increase aerosol absorption, substantially increasing the total BBA radiative effect (+2.66 W m -2 ) and amount of BBA transported across the ocean through BC self‐lofting. Reducing OA density to better match literature values changes the total BBA radiative effect by −1.96 W m -2 . Changes to direct radiative effects exceed changes to cloud radiative effects. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects and transport to these processes and properties, which we suggest could be improved in climate models.

Southeast Atlantic↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): status for CMIP6

The Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs (1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables; (2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output; (3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for nonexperts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits, and limitations; and (4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80; many are undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 are proposed and under consideration. A partial list of current global satellite-based datasets includes humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; and ozone (O 3 ), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) products. A partial list of proposed products expected to be useful in analyzing CMIP6 results includes the following: alternative products for the above quantities, additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g., FAPAR, LAI, burned area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While most existing obs4MIPs datasets consist of monthly-mean gridded data over the global domain, products with higher time resolution (e.g., daily) and/or regional products are now receiving more attention. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including (1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, (2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset's maturity and suitability for application, and (3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth system models used in CMIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2

Abstract. This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals, CLUBB); microphysical parameterization (MG2); and deep-convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regimes, where the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning done in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to an improved SWCRE and longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the SO. They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than CLUBB tuning and ZM tuning do. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) diagnostic tool as well as sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit future E3SM developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 1: assessing E3SM aerosol predictions using aircraft, ship, and surface measurements

Abstract. An Earth system model (ESM) aerosol–cloud diagnostics package is developed to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). The first version focuses on comparing simulated aerosol properties with aircraft, ship, and surface measurements, which are mostly measured in situ. The diagnostics currently cover six field campaigns in four geographical regions: eastern North Atlantic (ENA), central US (CUS), northeastern Pacific (NEP), and Southern Ocean (SO). These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and other agencies. Various types of diagnostics and metrics are performed for aerosol number, size distribution, chemical composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, and various meteorological quantities to assess how well E3SM represents observed aerosol properties across spatial scales. Overall, E3SM qualitatively reproduces the observed aerosol number concentration, size distribution, and chemical composition reasonably well, but it overestimates Aitken-mode aerosols and underestimates accumulation-mode aerosols over the CUS and ENA regions, suggesting that processes related to particle growth or coagulation might be too weak in the model. The current version of E3SM struggles to reproduce the new particle formation events frequently observed over both the CUS and ENA regions, indicating missing processes in current parameterizations. The diagnostics package is coded and organized in a way that can be extended to other field campaign datasets and adapted to higher-resolution model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement Learning for Load-balanced Parallel Particle Tracing

We explore an online reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm to dynamically optimize parallel particle tracing performance in distributed-memory systems. Our method combines three novel components: (1) a work donation algorithm, (2) a high-order workload estimation model, and (3) a communication cost model. First, we design an RL-based work donation algorithm. Our algorithm monitors workloads of processes and creates RL agents to donate data blocks and particles from high-workload processes to low-workload processes to minimize program execution time. The agents learn the donation strategy on the fly based on reward and cost functions designed to consider processes' workload changes and data transfer costs of donation actions. Second, we propose a workload estimation model, helping RL agents estimate the workload distribution of processes in future computations. Third, we design a communication cost model that considers both block and particle data exchange costs, helping RL agents make effective decisions with minimized communication costs. We demonstrate that our algorithm adapts to different flow behaviors in large-scale fluid dynamics, ocean, and weather simulation data. Our algorithm improves parallel particle tracing performance in terms of parallel efficiency, load balance, and costs of I/O and communication for evaluations with up to 16,384 processors.

Distributed and parallel particle tracing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fine Aerosol Acidity and Water during Summer in the Eastern North Atlantic

Aerosol pH governs many important atmospheric processes that occur in the marine boundary layer, including regulating halogen and sulfur chemistries, and nutrient fertilization of surface ocean waters. In this study, we investigated the acidity of PM1 over the eastern North Atlantic during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) aircraft campaign. The ISORROPIA-II thermodynamic model was used to predict PM1 pH and water. We first investigated the sensitivities of PM1 pH and water predictions to gas-phase NH3 and HNO3 concentrations. Our sensitivity analysis indicated that even though NH3 and HNO3 were present at very low concentrations in the eastern North Atlantic during the campaign, PM1 pH calculations can still be sensitive to NH3 concentrations. Specifically, NH3 was needed to constrain the pH of populations of PM1 that had low mass concentrations of NH4+ and non-volatile cations (NVCs). We next assumed that gas-phase NH3 and HNO3 concentrations during the campaign were 0.15 and 0.09 µg m−3, respectively, based on previous measurements conducted in the eastern North Atlantic. Using the assumption that PM1 were internally mixed (i.e., bulk PM1), we determined that PM1 pH ranged from 0.3–8.6, with a mean pH of 5.0 ± 2.3. The pH depended on both Hair+ and Wi. Hair+ was controlled primarily by the NVCs/SO42− molar ratio, while Wi was controlled by the SO42− mass concentration and RH. Changes in pH with altitude were driven primarily by changes in SO42−. Since aerosols in marine atmospheres are rarely internally mixed, the scenario where non-sea salt species and sea-salt species were present in two separate aerosol modes in the PM1 (i.e., completely externally mixed) was also considered. Smaller pH values were predicted for the aerosol mode comprised only of non-sea salt species compared to the bulk PM1 (difference of around 1 unit on average). This was due to the exclusion of sea-salt species (especially hygroscopic alkaline NVCs) in this aerosol mode, which led to increases in Hair+ values and decreases in Wi values. This result demonstrated that assumptions of aerosol mixing states can impact aerosol pH predictions substantially, which will have important implications for evaluating the nature and magnitude of pH-dependent atmospheric processes that occur in the marine boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model

Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ~2 km, as opposed to ~0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ~1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Formation and fate of freshwater on an ice floe in the Central Arctic

The melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer is a significant source of relatively fresh meltwater. The fate of this freshwater, whether in surface melt ponds or thin layers underneath the ice and in leads, impacts atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions and their subsequent coupled evolution. Here, we combine analyses of datasets from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (June–July 2020) for a process study on the formation and fate of sea ice freshwater on ice floes in the Central Arctic. Our freshwater budget analyses suggest that a relatively high fraction (58 %) is derived from surface melt. Additionally, the contribution from stored precipitation (snowmelt) outweighs by 5 times the input from in situ summer precipitation (rain). The magnitude and rate of local meltwater production are remarkably similar to those observed on the prior Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign, where the cumulative summer freshwater production totaled around 1 m during both. A relatively small fraction (10 %) of freshwater from melt remains in ponds, which is higher on more deformed second-year ice (SYI) compared to first-year ice (FYI) later in the summer. Most meltwater drains laterally and vertically, with vertical drainage enabling storage of freshwater internally in the ice by freshening brine channels. In the upper ocean, freshwater can accumulate in transient meltwater layers on the order of 0.1 to 1 m thick in leads and under the ice. The presence of such layers substantially impacts the coupled system by reducing bottom melt and allowing false bottom growth; reducing heat, nutrient, and gas exchange; and influencing ecosystem productivity. Regardless, the majority fraction of freshwater from melt is inferred to be ultimately incorporated into the upper ocean (75 %) or stored internally in the ice (14 %). Terms such as the annual sea ice freshwater production and meltwater storage in ponds could be used in future work as diagnostics for global climate and process models. For example, the range of values from the CESM2 climate model roughly encapsulate the observed total freshwater production, while storage in melt ponds is underestimated by about 50 %, suggesting pond drainage terms as a key process for investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Powering the Blue Economy: Economics of Marine Renewable Energy Systems

This presentation, part of the Policy and Innovation Drivers Shaping the Market for Marine Renewable Energy panel of the 2020 Marine Renewable Energy Conference: On and Off the Grid, moderated by Leslie-Ann McGee, Assistant Director of the Consortium for Marine Robotics at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Program Manager, Cape Cod Blue Economy Foundation, delves into government policies incentivizing technological advances, collaborative models for technology development, market trends, and permitting hurdles. Panelists include: Jennifer Garson, Senior Advisor, U.S. Dept. of Energy Lead for the Powering the Blue Economy Initiative; Henry Jeffrey, Chairman of the Technology Collaboration Programme for Ocean Energy Systems, University of Edinburgh; Alf Carroll, SBIR Blackbelt and Ocean Energy SME, Raytheon Technologies; Walter Schurtenberger, Founder, Hydrokinetic Energy Corp.; and Dale "Scott" Jenne, Engineer, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multimodal imaging of oil-in-water bilgewater emulsion and biofilms

Bilgewater emulsions, consisting of oil and surfactant mixtures in water, affect many aquatic species. Thus development of methods and techniques to treat or mitigate the formation and undesired consequences of shipboard emulsions are urgently needed. This work presents new results of the evolution of the bilgewaer chemical and physical properties using in situ imaging. A Navy O/W emulsion consisting of three oils and a detergent mixture was used as the synthetic bilgewater model [1, 2]. Synthetic oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion droplets were seled in a vacuum compatible microfluidic sample holder and imaged using a suite of tools including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), confocal laser scanning microscopy, and optical microscopy, highlighting the advantage of multiscale analysis and its applications in waste reduction and treatment in the environment. The transferrable and vacuum compatible microfluidic interface, System for Analysis at the Liquid Vacuum Interface (SALVI), was used in this study. SALVI enabled surface analysis of liquids and liquid-solid interactions using ToF-SIMS and SEM [3, 4]. Its detection window is an aperture of 2 ?m in diameter open to vacuum, permitting direct detection of the liquid surface. Liquid is withheld by surface tension within the aperture. The interface is composed of a silicon nitride membrane and polydimethylsiloxane microchannel [3, 4]. A variety of samples including complex liquid mixtures, ionic liquids, single mammalian cells, live biofilms, and solid-electrolyte interface have been analyzed using in situ imaging [5, 6]. The feasibility of using SALVI for in situ SEM imaging of nanoparticles and colloids in liquid was recently demonstrated [7]. This paper shows new findings of multimodal imaging and analysis of synthesized emulsion particles in water. Figure 1 depicts a schematic of multimodal in situ imaging of bilgewater emulsion using SEM and ToF-SIMS. Furthermore, we study the interactions of microbes and bilgewater emulsion. Microbes play an important role in the ocean. We hypothesize that microbes release organics that can act as surfactants that affect bilgewater formation or weakening. We present the first systematic study of emulsions and biofilms and investigate the effects of biofilms on bilgewater emulsions. Pseudomonas was selected as a model strain. Biofilms were cultured in a microchannel to allow culture [8]. Once a thick layer of biofilms was formed, the medium solution was changed to a mixture consisting of 50 % bilgewater emulsion. Dispersed biofilms were collected at 24 hrs. and 48 hrs. after emulsions were introduced into the channel. Bilgewater emulsions, biofilms, and mixtures of bilgewater emulsions and biofilms were analyzed using multiple in situ and ex situ techniques as described earlier. Our findings indicate that biofilms change the chemical makeup of the emulsion surface compositions and emulsion droplet size distribution, confirming the hypothesis that extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) related components released from biofilms can function as surfactants and change the oil-in-water interfaces.

bilgewater, multimodal imaging, biofilms↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Subglacial hydrology is a leading control on basal friction and the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. At low discharge, subglacial water flows through high-pressure, sheet-like systems that lead to low effective pressures. However, at high discharge, subglacial water melts the overlying ice into localized channels that efficiently remove water from the bed, thereby increasing effective pressure and basal friction. Recent observations suggest channelized subglacial flow exists beneath Thwaites Glacier, yet it remains unclear if stable channelization is feasible in West Antarctica, where surface melting is nonexistent and water at the bed is limited. Here, we use the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model to run a suite of over 130 subglacial hydrology simulations of Thwaites Glacier across a wide range of physical parameter choices to assess the likelihood of channelization. We then narrow our range of viable simulations by comparing modeled water thicknesses to previously observed radar specularity content, which indicates flat, spatially extensive water bodies at the bed. In all of our data-compatible simulations, stable channels reliably form within 100–200 km of the grounding line and reach individual discharge rates of 35–110 m3 s−1 at the ice–ocean boundary. While only one to two channels typically form across the 200 km width of the glacier in our simulations, their high efficiency drains water across the entire lateral extent of the glacier. We posit the large catchment size of Thwaites Glacier, its funnel-like geometry, and high basal melt rates together accumulate enough water to form stable channels. No simulations resembled observed specularity content when channelization was disabled. Our results suggest channelized subglacial hydrology has two consequences for Thwaites Glacier dynamics: (i) amplifying submarine melting of the terminus and ice shelf while (ii) simultaneously raising effective pressure within 100 km of the grounding line and increasing basal friction. The distribution of effective pressure implied from our modeling differs from parameterizations typically used in large-scale ice sheet models, suggesting the development of more process-based parameterizations may be necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Passive Microwave Radiometry and Active Radar Sounding as Complementary Tools for Geophysical Investigations of Icy Ocean Worlds

Juno Microwave Radiometer (MWR) observations of Europa and Ganymede offer critical insights into the icy shells of these moons ahead of NASA's Europa Clipper and ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) missions. Both missions are equipped with active radar sounders designed to address key unknowns such as ice shell thickness, thermal state, and composition. In this study, we explore how passive microwave radiometry and active radar sounding can constrain ice shell properties, focusing on Europa. Using modeled microwave brightness temperature observations at 0.6 and 1.2 GHz alongside simulated radar attenuation rate observations, we show that each instrument can independently produce robust ice shell thickness constraints under idealized conditions. We then relax these assumptions, quantifying how uncertainties from non-ideal properties—including convective layers, freezing-point depression, and chloride-doped ice—affect thickness estimates. Finally, we demonstrate how combining observations from these complementary techniques breaks degeneracies between ice shell properties, enabling more robust constraints than either method alone. This approach will maximize the science return of Europa Clipper and JUICE, advancing our understanding of the thermophysical structure and habitability of icy ocean worlds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Equations of State of Magnesite: Implication for the Complex Mid‐Lower Mantle Seismic Scatterers

Abstract Magnesite (MgCO 3 ) entering the lower mantle together with the subducted oceanic crust is an important carbon carrier. The reaction between magnesite and mantle minerals has been documented, but its influence on the density and velocity profiles of lower mantle remains unexplored. To decipher the deep carbon transportation and its associated effect, here we determined the thermal equations of state of magnesite up to 120 GPa and 2600 K using X‐ray diffraction in laser‐heated diamond anvil cells. The obtained thermal elastic parameters of magnesite facilitated a comprehensive understanding on the influence of magnesite‐SiO 2 reaction, variation of carbon and SiO 2 content, and temperature on the origin of lower‐mantle scatterers at 1,000–1,800 km depth. Our modeling revealed that the depth of the lower‐mantleV S scatterers is mainly controlled by the Al 2 O 3 content in SiO 2 , while its magnitude depends on the SiO 2 content. Along normal geotherm, the magnesite‐SiO 2 reaction would occur before the post‐stishovite transition, consuming substantial SiO 2 in the subducted oceanic crust. Depending on the amount of residual SiO 2 , the post‐stishovite transition can produce a 2.5–5.2 (2)%V S reduction, compatible with the observed seismic scatterers in Izu‐Bonin and Mariana subduction zones. Along slab geotherm, this reaction occurs after the post‐stishovite transition, generating a greaterV S reduction of 4.4–6.4 (4)%. We thus propose that the reaction between sinking MgCO 3 and SiO 2 in the slab is one of the potential factors influencing the magnitude of the lower‐Vs scatterers at 1,000–1,900 km depth. Our results provide new insights into the deep‐mantle carbonate transportation influencing regional geophysics.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-specific Cloud Vertical Overlap Characteristics from Radar and Lidar Observations at the ARM sites

Climate and numerical weather prediction models require assumptions to represent the vertical distribution of subgrid-scale clouds, which have radiative transfer implications. In this study, nearly 25 years of ground-based radar and lidar observations of vertical cloud profiles at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are utilized to derive cloud vertical overlap characteristics from the Cloud Type (CLDTYPE) data product. Here, the cloud vertical overlap characteristics are further separated by cloud regime by considering seven cloud types (i.e., low cloud, congestus, deep convection, altocumulus, altostratus, cirrostratus, and cirrus) as well as periods of shallow cumulus. The decorrelation length scale (i.e., exponential transition from maximum to random overlap with layer separation) is found to vary by cloud regime, ranging between 0.04 km for cirrostratus paired with cirrus to 4.58 km for low cloud paired with cirrus at SGP. Cloud vertical overlap characteristics are also considered for other ARM sites including the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) sites amongst other shorter term ARM deployments globally. The decorrelation length scale ranged globally from 1.03 km in the Arctic Ocean to 3.06 km in Manacapuru, Brazil. Globally, the decorrelation length scale by cloud regime exhibited similarities (e.g., for cirrus paired with cirrus) and differences (e.g., congestus paired with cirrus). The results could help inform development of cloud vertical overlap assumptions within operational numerical weather prediction models and potentially improve prediction of radiative fluxes for weather, climate, and renewable energy forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗