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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Novel experimental probes of QCD in SIDIS and e + e - annihilation (Final Technical Report)

The research addressed with this award seeks to advance our understanding of the structure and dynamics underlying the properties of visible matter. In our current understanding the nucleons (protons and neutrons) are not fundamental but are comprised of quarks and gluons, which are collectively called partons. A static quark picture fails to explain the properties of the nucleons, such as their mass and intrinsic spin, which are thought to emerge dynamically from the quark-gluon interactions via the strong force. In this work, novel observables employing correlations of particles produced in the scattering of high energy electrons off protons at the CLAS12 experiment at Jefferson Lab were analyzed to probe quark-gluon interactions. The ultimate goal of this line of inquiry is to be able to describe the properties of protons and neutrons from first principles, similar to how studying the hydrogen atom has led to the formulation of the theory of Quantum Electrodynamics. Because quarks cannot be observed directly but only as part of more complex composite particles, a smaller, complimentary part of this work was the analysis of particle production in electron-positron annihilation at the Belle II experiment to understand the production of particles from initial quarks. This takes advantage of the fact that in e + e - annihilation the initial quark dynamics is known, unlike in the scattering of nucleons. Several new applications using Machine Learning algorithms for event tagging and reconstruction to support this program were developed as part of this award. In addition, we had a significant role in the development of the physics program for the future Electron-Ion Collider, which is a new collider to be build in the US within the next decade.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Design, Construction and Testing of the Straw Tracking Detectors for the E989 Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab.

The requirement of science, to stretch the boundaries and our understanding of the standard model,is the driving force for the continuous development of our knowledge of the building blocks of theUniverse. Experiments are designed, built and tested to support the theories of the mathematiciansof the physics community and the theorists help interpret the experimental results, looking foravenues of new physics. However, as is known in both science and human nature, nothing is everperfect - there is always room for improvement.The E989 Muon g-2 Collaboration experiment at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (otherwiseknown as Fermilab), aims to quantify the muon anomalous magnetic moment to unprecedentedprecision and looks to increase the accuracy of the measurement by fourfold of the predecessorexperiment - E821 at Brookhaven. The discrepancy between the theoretical prediction of theanomalous magnetic moment of the muon and the experimental results, has given tantalisingindication of new physics, prompting an ”upgrade” for systematic accuracy on the E821.The particular focus of this thesis details the design, construction and quality testing of the strawtracking modules for the E989 experiment. The author was one of the dedicated technicians whobuilt and tested the tracker modules at the University of Liverpool High Energy Physics (HEP)department, she built and quality tested the modules, wrote the procedural document for the buildand subsequently was involved in the Run I startup, shut down and data taking shifts (for Run Iand Run II) which contributed to the recent release of the first unblinded data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Multistep Coulomb excitation of Ni 64 : Shape coexistence and nature of low-spin excitations

Here, the structure of 64 Ni, the heaviest stable Ni isotope, has been investigated via high-statistics, multistep safe Coulomb excitation to search for shape coexistence, a phenomenon recently observed in neutron-rich 66 Ni and 70 Ni as well as in doubly magic, N = 40, 68 Ni. The study was motivated by recent, state-of-the-art Monte Carlo shell-model calculations (MCSM), where a Hamiltonian with effective interactions incorporating the monopole tensor force predicts the existence of shape coexistence, also in the lower-mass 62,64 Ni isotopes. A set of transition and static E2 matrix elements for both yrast and near-yrast structures was extracted from the differential Coulomb excitation cross sections. From comparisons between the new results and MCSM as well as other shell-model calculations, a clearer picture of the structure of 64 Ni emerges. Specifically, the low-spin states are shown to be dominated by proton and neutron excitations mainly within the fp shell, with minimal contribution from the g 9/2 shape-driving neutron orbital. The agreement between experimental data and MCSM results indicates a small oblate deformation for the $0$$^{+}_{2}$ level and a spherical shape for the $0$$^{+}_{3}$ state. In addition, the small upper limit determined for the B(E2) probability of a transition associated with the decay of the recently observed 3463-keV, $0$$^{+}_{4}$ state agrees with its proposed assignment to a prolate shape, herewith providing first evidence for triple shape coexistence in a stable Ni isotope.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1

The fuel characterization models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) have recently been extended to include a new U-Pu-Zr metal fuel model, MFUEL. MFUEL is equipped with mechanistic physics based models to predict the pre-transient characterization and transient response of metal fuel, with emphasis on fuel melting, cladding failure, and the metal fuel’s impact on core reactivity. The MFUEL model will be available in the full version of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 5.7, which is scheduled to be released in June 2023. Fast reactor fuel pins that operated in EBR-II and FFTF with low smear density U-Zr and U-Pu-Zr metal fuels and irradiation resistant ferritic-martensitic cladding showed significant advantages in achieving high burnups and assuring inherent safety characteristics during anticipated transients, design basis events, and beyond design basis events. For safety analysis, a fuel performance model must be able to predict (1) Fuel pin mechanics and compositional and dimensional changes, (2) Clad failure, and (3) Fuel pin thermal resistance. Achieving these high level goals accurately is strongly related to the model performance of individual physical processes taking place within a fuel pin during its lifetime. Metal fuels typically operate above the mid-point temperature of melting during normal, as well as off-normal, conditions. At these elevated temperatures, the availability of thermal activation provides a driving force for various diffusional processes leading to complex phase transformations, micro-structure evolution, significant amounts of fuel swelling, interconnected porosity formation, excessive amounts of fission gas release, and fuel clad chemical interactions. Clad failure in fast reactors primarily occurs as a result of creep rupture augmented by clad wastage formation. The reaction is driven by thermal creep induced dislocation motion, grain boundary cavity nucleation, growth and breakup of grain boundaries. The high level complexity and limited available data requires introducing physics-based modeling approaches to gain extrapolation ability and sensitivity with respect to various conditions. The objective of this report is to perform validation of MFUEL using the experimental data for (1) Normal operation EBR-II fuel behavior, (2) Normal operation PHENIX fuel behavior, (3) HT9 Pressure tube ramp-and-hold creep rupture tests, (4) Whole Pin Furnace (WPF) creep strain, creep rupture and eutectic tests, (5) Fuel Behavior Test Apparatus (FBTA) eutectic tests, and (6) TREAT M5-7 OverPower tests up to clad failure. Section-2 includes a brief description of the MFUEL models. A detailed description of the MFUEL physics-based, semi-empirical models will be presented in the SAS V 5.7 theory manual. Section-3, 4, and 5 describes the validation effort for the pre-transient irradiation, furnace transients, and TREAT M-Series transients, respectively.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigation of Point-Contact Strategies for CFD Simulations of Pebble-Bed Reactor Cores

This study numerically investigated the effects of various contact strategies on the thermal hydraulic behavior within a structured bed of 100 explicitly modeled pebbles. Four contact strategies and two thermal hydraulic conditions were considered. The strategies to avoid contact singularities include decreasing the pebble diameter, increasing the pebble diameter, bridging the pebble surfaces near the contact region, and capping the pebble surfaces near the contact region. One strategy, Strategy 3a, which involves bridging with a cylinder equal to 10% of the pebble diameter, was selected as the baseline strategy because it addressed the contact singularity while minimizing the geometric changes that affect the bed porosity. The two thermal hydraulic conditions were full-power operation (Case 1) and pressurized loss of forced cooling or PLOFC (Case 2). Simulations of the conjugate heat transfer within the structured bed were performed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach with the realizable k-ϵ turbulence model and two-layer all y + wall treatment. The thermal-fluid quantities of interest were compared between the contact strategies for each case. In Case 1, the hydraulic behavior was sensitive to the contact strategy, with large differences in the pressure drop (30%) and volume-average velocity (4%). The thermal behavior was not sensitive, with less than a 0.5% difference across the strategies. To better understand the separate effects of each heat transfer mode, Case 2 was divided into the following subcases: conduction (Case 2a); conduction/radiation (Case 2b); and conduction/radiation/convection (Case 2c). Case 2a represents an early phase of the PLOFC transient. Case 2b represents an intermediate phase of the PLOFC transient, with the pebble temperatures sufficiently high for the radiative heat transfer to be non-negligible. Case 2c represents a late phase of the PLOFC transient after the establishment of the natural circulation of the heat transfer fluid. For Case 2, large differences in the contact strategy were observed only in Case 2a with only conduction. The difference in the maximum pebble temperature was 23% in Case 2a, 2% in Case 2b, and 0.3% in Case 2c.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fuel Behavior Implications of Reactor Design Choices in Pressurized Water SMRs

Small pressurized water reactors (PWRs) can feature boron free operation, natural circulation mode, reduced height assemblies and/or long refueling cycles. This paper attempts to explore core design optimization for each of these design evolutions. In consequence, five core design layouts are developed incorporating boron free operation with continuous control rods insertion, natural circulation with low burnup/low power density design, natural circulation with high burnup/low power density design, forced circulation with standard core power density design, and forced circulation with high power density design. These cores’ performance is compared to a standard 4-loop PWR. The design process aims to improve the fuel cycle cost under safety constraints through core design optimization using CASMO4E/SIMULATE3 reactor physics codes and FRAPCON4.1 fuel performance assessment tool. Core modeling assumes standard 17x17 PWR fuel assemblies loaded with low enriched uranium (LEU) up to 5wt% or LEU+ (i.e., below 10wt% enrichment) pellets with gadolinium oxide (Gd2O3) as the burnable poison. Satisfactory core and fuel performances are obtained for all the designed cores under steady state and considered overpower transients. For low power density operation, long cycle lengths are achieved reaching a 2.5- and a 5-year cycles and peak rod-average burnup is pushed to 83 MWd/kgU. Other cycle lengths are maintained at 18 months. Boron free operation exhibits the ability to achieve longer cycle lengths at the cost of higher peaking factors leading to high local power and fuel temperatures which prevents sizable power uprates and is deemed uneconomical. Fuel assembly height reduction allows coolant velocity retrofit which enables higher core power density without violating structural integrity of the fuel assembly. As a result, a core power density of 123 kW/l is reached where total cladding hoop strain becomes the limiting parameter.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pattern of global spin alignment of ϕ and K*0 mesons in heavy-ion collisions

The strong force, as one of the four fundamental forces at work in the universe, governs interactions of quarks and gluons, and binds together the atomic nucleus. Notwithstanding decades of progress since Yukawa first developed a description of the force between nucleons in terms of meson exchange 1 , a full understanding of the strong interaction remains a major challenge in modern science. One remaining difficulty arises from the non-perturbative nature of the strong force, which leads to the phenomenon of quark confinement at distance scales on the order of the size of the proton. Here we show that in relativistic heavy-ion collisions, where quarks and gluons are set free over an extended volume, two species of produced vector (spin-1) mesons, namely φ and K∗0 , emerge with a surprising pattern of global spin alignment. In particular, the global spin alignment for φ is unexpectedly large, while that for K∗0 is consistent with zero. The observed spin-alignment pattern and magnitude for the φ cannot be explained by conventional mechanisms, while a model with strong force fields2, 3 accommodates the current data. This is the first time that the strong force field is experimentally supported as a key mechanism that leads to global spin alignment. We extract a quantity proportional to the intensity of the field of the strong force. Within the framework of the Standard Model, where the strong force is typically described in the quark and gluon language of Quantum Chromodynamics, the field being considered here is an effective proxy description. This is a qualitatively new class of measurement, which opens a new avenue for studying the behaviour of strong force fields via their imprint on spin alignment.

Abdallah, M. S.↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of the Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment Test Section

Tritium, a radionuclide produced through neutron capture by lithium and other elements (beryllium and fluoride) in molten salts, presents unique challenges to radionuclide release. This is true for both fusion energy breeder blankets and molten salt fission reactors. The fundamental understanding of tritium transport is crucial to the safe design and operation of these reactors. The Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment (MSTTE), currently under construction at Idaho National Laboratory, aims to investigate tritium transport phenomena using a forced-convection fluoride salt loop. This loop is designed to study various transport mechanisms, such as permeation through metals and gas-liquid interactions, and is intended to support future research on tritium extraction units. A critical aspect of the MSTTE loop design is ensuring a fully developed velocity profile before the fluid reaches the permeation test section where measurements are made. This study employs computational fluid dynamics to model the salt flow behavior within the MSTTE permeation test section. A realizable k-ε turbulent model with enhanced wall treatment is used to simulate the single-phase, vertical upward flow of molten salt FLiNaK under isothermal conditions. The simulation results indicated flow distortion and underdeveloped profiles at all planned flow rates within the test section due to the 85-deg sharp bend. To address this issue, a reduced diameter with a reducer and expander and a flow conditioner are investigated to achieve fully developed flow. The analysis showed that the flow conditioner successfully corrected the flow profile, achieving fully developed behavior at a flow rate of 50 liters per minute (LPM). In conclusion, this research enhances our understanding of flow dynamics in molten salt systems and contributes to optimizing tritium transport control technologies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Aluminum-Based Superconducting Tunnel Junction Sensors for Nuclear Recoil Spectroscopy

The BeEST experiment is searching for sub-MeV sterile neutrinos by measuring nuclear recoil energies from the decay of 7 Be implanted into superconducting tunnel junction (STJ) sensors. The recoil spectra are affected by interactions between the radioactive implants and the sensor materials. We are therefore developing aluminum-based STJs (Al-STJs) as an alternative to existing tantalum devices (Ta-STJs) to investigate how to separate material effects in the recoil spectrum from potential signatures of physics beyond the Standard Model. Three iterations of Al-STJs were fabricated. The first had electrode thicknesses similar to existing Ta-STJs. They had low responsivity and reduced resolution, but were used successfully to measure 7 Be nuclear recoil spectra. The second iteration had STJs suspended on thin SiN membranes by backside etching. These devices had low leakage current, but also low yield. The final iteration was not backside etched, and the Al-STJs had thinner electrodes and thinner tunnel barriers to increase signal amplitudes. These devices achieved 2.96 eV FWHM energy resolution at 50 eV using a pulsed 355 nm (~3.5 eV) laser. These results establish Al-STJs as viable detectors for systematic material studies in the BeEST experiment.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multiphysics Analyses of the Protected and Unprotected Loss of Forced Cooling Accidents in the HTR-PM

Here, we present the multiphysics simulation results for the protected pressurized and depressurized loss of forced cooling (PLOFC and DLOFC) events in the High-Temperature gas-cooled Reactor--Pebble-bed Module (HTR-PM) equilibrium core using the Griffin-Pronghorn coupled code system. Additionally, this paper discusses the strategy for estimating the spontaneous fission neutron source needed for unprotected events and re-criticality calculations. The solutions of the protected PLOFC and DLOFC events were verified against similar solutions obtained for temperature evolutions from the open literature. Both the average and maximum pebble surface temperatures behaved as expected during the DLOFC and remained below 1800 K. The PLOFC results are highly dependent on the ability to resolve the natural circulation in the core, which is impacted by the mesh resolution in Pronghorn. Furthermore, we present the results of the unprotected DLOFC transient to predict the timing of the re-criticality event, which occurred 47 hours after the onset of the transient, and the new steady-state power of 1.3 MW.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of Hybrid Gas–Dust Outbursts Observed at 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

Cometary outbursts offer a valuable window into the composition of comet nuclei with their forceful ejection of dust and volatiles in explosive events, revealing the interior components of the comet. Understanding how different types of outbursts influence the dust properties and volatile abundances, to better interpret what signatures can be attributed to primordial composition and what features are the result of processing, is an important task best undertaken with a multi-instrument approach. The European Space Agency Rosetta mission to 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko carried a suite of instruments capable of carrying out this task in the near-nucleus coma with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution. In this work, we discuss two outbursts that occurred 2015 November 7 and were observed by three instruments on board: the Alice ultraviolet spectrograph, the Visual Infrared and Thermal Imaging Spectrometer, and the Optical, Spectroscopic, and Infrared Remote Imaging System. Together, the observations show that mixed gas and dust outbursts can have different spectral signatures representative of their initiating mechanisms, with the first outburst showing indicators of a cliff collapse origin and the second more representative of fresh volatiles being exposed via a deepening fracture. This analysis opens up the possibility of remote spectral classification of cometary outbursts with future work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Intrinsic thermal conductivity of ZrC from low to ultrahigh temperatures: A critical revisit

Current phonon transport theory based on ground-state calculations has been successful in predicting thermal conductivity at room and medium temperatures but may misrepresent behavior at high temperatures. Here, in this work, we predict the thermal conductivity (κ) of ZrC including electronic and phonon contributions from 300 to 3500 K, by including high-order phonon scattering; lattice expansion; temperature-dependent (TD) second-, third-, and fourth-order force constants (2FC, 3FC, and 4FC); and interband phonon conduction by using first principles. For the phonon transport, we find that four-phonon scattering (4ph) significantly reduces the phonon thermal conductivity (κ ph ), by as much as ~75% at 3500 K. After including 4ph scattering and all other factors, κ ph shows a ~T –1.5 rather than ~T –1 dependence. TD 2FC decreases three-phonon scattering rates but increases 4ph rates by decreasing and increasing the scattering phase spaces, respectively. For 4ph phase space, the TD 2FC flattens phonon bands, and allows more redistribution-4ph processes (1 + 2 → 3 + 4) to happen. The combination effect of TD 2FC and TD 4FC reduces 4ph rates of acoustic modes but increases those of optical modes. The TD 3FC and 4FC decrease the phonon scattering cross section and increase the κ ph significantly (by 52% at 3500 K). The contribution from interband (Wigner) phonon conduction is small, even at ultrahigh temperatures. For electronic thermal transport, we find that it is sensitive to and can be changed by 20% by the TD lattice constants. The Lorenz number varies from 1.6 to 3.3 × 10 –8 WΩK –2 at different temperatures. The theoretical prediction in the literature overpredicts κph (e.g., ~28%) and underpredicts the κ el (e.g., ~38%), resulting in an overall underprediction of κ (~26% at 1500 K). The impacts of grain size and defects are found to be strong, leading to the lower observed thermal conductivity in experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Benchmarking the AirSquared All-Metal Scroll Pump Against the Normetex 15 - Preliminary report

Tritium operations require specialized equipment for material compatibility, safety, and waste considerations. Non-metallic pump materials (polymer, oil, or grease) on a tritium-wetted surface can absorb tritium and/or undergo isotope exchange between tritium and more common protium, creating tritiated compounds that can result in material property modification via beta-radiolysis, inventory loss, reduced performance and special waste considerations, all of which increase the operating cost for a facility. Vacuum pumps move gas via a pressure differential between volumes of an operation. Several types of all-metal vacuum pumps exist for this application including metal bellows, diaphragm and scroll pumps. A metal bellows pump incorporates only metal components at the wetted surfaces. The common metal bellows pump employed in tritium facilities, the MB601 (Senior Metal Bellows, Sharon, PA, USA) creates a gas-motive force with a vacuum pressure between 30-40 torr. These pumps can efficiently move gas from one process step to another, as long as sub-30 torr pressures are not required. However, for higher vacuum demand, an all-metal scroll pump can be used with the bellows pump serving as a “backing” pump. This configuration typically provides an achievable vacuum of less than 20 mTorr. All-metal scroll pumps are a technology uniquely applicable to tritium gas handling. The industry standard all-metal scroll pump for glovebox-scale tritium operations is the Normetex 15 m 3 /hr, typically referred to as the Normetex 15 (Normetex Pompes, Pont Audemer, France). However, the final Normetex pumps were manufactured in 2012, rendering them no longer available. Eumeca SaRL (formerly Normetex) has developed and is marketing a scroll pump based on the design of the Normetex 15. A US company, AirSquared (Broomfield, Colorado), has developed and is marketing a potential alternative to the Normetex 15. The Gas Transfer Systems group (Q-7) of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) procured serial number 0001 of the AirSquared All Metal Vacuum Scroll pump model number V16H034A-C01 in 2019. The LANL Hydrogen Processing Laboratory (HPL) has been evaluating the performance of the pump compared to a Normetex pump as a potential replacement in tritium and fusion facilities requiring this type of pump.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Generation of the TSL for Zirconium Hydrides from Ab Initio Methods

Zirconium hydride (ZrHx) is a moderator material used in TRIGA and other reactors that may exist in multiple phases with varying stoichiometry, which include the δ phase and the ϵ phase. Current ENDF/B-VIII.0 ZrHx thermal scattering law (TSL) evaluations do not distinguish between phases. These sub-libraries were generated with the LEAPR module of NJOY using historic phonon spectra derived from a central force model and assume incoherent elastic scattering for both bound hydrogen and zirconium, which neglects the effects of crystal structures important for scattering from zirconium bound in ZrHx. In this work, the TSLs for hydrogen and zirconium bound in δ-ZrHx and ϵ-ZrH2 were generated from phonon spectra derived from modern ab initio lattice dynamics methods and ab initio molecular dynamics. Subsequently, TSLs for hydrogen and zirconium in ZrHx and ZrH2 were generated using the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) code. The built-in generalized coherent elastic routine was used to generate the previously neglected elastic contribution from zirconium for this material. The present TSLs provide both a re-evaluation of the current ZrH sub-libraries and expansion of the set of TSLs available for the examination of neutrons in systems with zirconium hydride, permitting explicit treatment of δ and ϵ phases.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗