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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Latent Pitfalls in Microstructure-Based Modeling for Thermally Aged 9Cr-1Mo-V Steel (Grade 91)

A case study was conducted on a mechanistic model development that predicted tensile strength deterioration with thermal aging of 9Cr-1Mo-V steel in supporting the 60-year design life expected for advanced nuclear reactors. For property prediction beyond practical testing times, mechanistic modeling is highly desired, as it taps into the physics of structure–property relationships and therefore can generate reliable results for extrapolation. Meanwhile, as mechanistic models are often complicated, reflecting the intricacy of microstructure and strengthening mechanisms, pitfalls that are difficult to detect often exist. Here, this paper discusses latent pitfalls that are common in mechanistic modeling or specific in this 9Cr-1Mo-V case development through using the American Society of Mechanical Engineers verification and validation in computational solid mechanics (ASME V&V 10) standard for evaluating credibility of modeling in materials engineering. Suggestions are also made for enhancing reliability of microstructure-based modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Major Effects of Nonmetallic Inclusions on the Fatigue Life of Disk Superalloy Demonstrated

The fatigue properties of modern powder metallurgy disk alloys can vary because of the different steps of materials and component processing and machining. Among these variables, the effects of nonmetallic inclusions introduced during the powder atomization and handling processes have been shown to significantly degrade low-cycle fatigue life. The levels of inclusion contamination have, therefore, been reduced to less than 1 part per million in state-of-the-art nickel disk powder-processing facilities. Yet the large quantities of compressor and turbine disks weighing from 100 to over 1000 lb have enough total volume and surface area for these rare inclusions to still be present and limit fatigue life. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects on fatigue life of these inclusions, as part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project. Inclusions were carefully introduced at elevated levels in a nickel-base disk superalloy, U720, produced using powder metallurgy processing. Multiple strain-controlled fatigue tests were then performed on extracted test specimens at 650 C. Analyses were performed to compare the low-cycle fatigue lives and failure initiation sites as functions of inclusion content and fatigue conditions. Powder of the nickel-base superalloy U720 was atomized in argon at Special Metals Corporation, Inc., using production-scale high-cleanliness powder-processing facilities and handling practices. The powder was then passed through a 270-mesh screen. One portion of this powder was set aside for subsequent consolidation without introduced inclusions. Two other portions of this powder were seeded with alumina inclusions. Small, polycrystalline soft (Type 2) inclusions of about 50 mm diameter were carefully prepared and blended into one powder lot, and larger hard (Type 1) inclusions of about 150 mm mean diameter were introduced into the other seeded portion of powder. All three portions of powder were then sealed in separate containers, hot isostatically pressurized, extruded, forged into subscale disks, and heat treated. Low-cycle-fatigue specimens were then extracted, machined, and tested. Fatigue tests were performed at 650 C in closed-loop servohydraulic testing machines using induction heating and axial extensometers. All tests were continued to failure, and fractographic evaluations were performed on all specimens to determine the crack initiation sites. A large majority of the failures in specimens with introduced inclusions occurred at cracks initiating from inclusions at the specimen surface, as shown for each type of inclusion in the following bar chart. The inclusions significantly reduced fatigue life from unseeded material levels, as shown in the bar chart. These effects were found to depend on the strain range, strain ratio, and inclusion size. Tests at lower strain ranges and higher strain ratios resulted in larger effects of inclusions on life. Inclusion effects on life were thereby maximized in tests at the lowest strain range of 0.6 percent and the most positive strain ratio of 0.5. Under these conditions, small Type 2 inclusions reduced life substantially-- about 20 times, whereas large Type 1 inclusions dramatically reduced life 100 times. These results clearly demonstrate that it is essential to include the effects of inclusions for realistic predictions of disk fatigue life. Important issues, including temperature dependence, crack initiation versus propagation, surface treatments, realistic disk features and machining, and realistic disk spin testing will be addressed to accurately model inclusion effects on disk fatigue life. Fatigue life varied from well over 105 cycles for no inclusions to a little over 103 cycles for 100-micrometer inclusions. A single crack initiating at a surface-connected seeded inclusion caused failure in each case.

Gabb, Timothy P.↗

Transient Three-Dimensional Analysis of Nozzle Side Load in Regeneratively Cooled Engines

Nozzle side loads are potentially detrimental to the integrity and life of almost all launch vehicles. the lack of a detailed prediction capability results in reducing life and increased weight for reusable nozzle systems. A clear understanding of the mechanism that contribute to side loads during engine startup, shutdown, and steady-state operations must be established. A CFD based predictive tool must be developed to aid the understanding of side load physics and development of future reusable engine.

ng, Ten-See↗

Stress-life interrelationships associated with alkaline fuel cells

A review is presented concerning the interrelationships between applied stress and the expected service life of alkaline fuel cells. Only the physical, chemical, and electrochemical phenomena that take place within the fuel cell stack portion of an overall fuel cell system will be discussed. A brief review will be given covering the significant improvements in performance and life over the past two decades as well as summarizing the more recent advances in understanding which can be used to predict the performance and life characteristics of fuel cell systems that have yet to be built.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗

Stress-life interrelationships associated with alkaline fuel cells

A review is presented concerning the interrelationships between applied stress and the expected service life of alkaline fuel cells. Only the physical, chemical, and electrochemical phenomena that take place within the fuel cell stack portion of an overall fuel cell system will be discussed. A brief review will be given covering the significant improvements in performance and life over the past two decades as well as summarizing the more recent advances in understanding which can be used to predict the performance and life characteristics of fuel cell systems that have yet to be built.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗

Glass-contact refractory of the nuclear waste vitrification melters in the United States: a review of corrosion data and melter life

The performance of the refractory lining in glass melters used for nuclear waste vitrification is critical to the melter reliability for long-term continuous operation. Monofrax® K-3, a high Cr 2 O 3 fused cast refractory material, has been widely used to build the liners of nuclear waste glass melters in the United States. Corrosion behaviour of Monofrax® K-3 refractory has been evaluated based on crucible-scale testing, inspection of the refractory components following scaled melter testing, and inspections of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter refractory after service. The literature generally consists of empirical models based on short-term testing to describe refractory corrosion dependence on glass composition. Corrosion data from tests with longer testing times, at various temperatures, in the presence of molten salts, and with different redox reactions in the plenum atmosphere exist, may be insufficient to provide accurate refractory service life estimates. Additionally, the corrosion data collected under actual and scaled melter operating conditions are limited. Recommendations to achieve more direct correlation between the laboratory refractory corrosion data predictions and the observed melter service life are discussed to allow for more accurate predictions of the useful life of melter refractory linings.

Jin, Tongan↗

Advances in Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Analyses for Metallic Aircraft Structures

This paper reviews some of the advances that have been made in stress analyses of cracked aircraft components, in the understanding of the fatigue and fatigue-crack growth process, and in the prediction of residual strength of complex aircraft structures with widespread fatigue damage. Finite-element analyses of cracked metallic structures are now used to determine accurate stress-intensity factors for cracks at structural details. Observations of small-crack behavior at open and rivet-loaded holes and the development of small-crack theory has lead to the prediction of stress-life behavior for components with stress concentrations under aircraft spectrum loading. Fatigue-crack growth under simulated aircraft spectra can now be predicted with the crack-closure concept. Residual strength of cracked panels with severe out-of-plane deformations (buckling) in the presence of stiffeners and multiple-site damage can be predicted with advanced elastic-plastic finite-element analyses and the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. These advances are helping to assure continued safety of aircraft structures.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Advances in Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Analyses for Aircraft Structures

This paper reviews some of the advances that have been made in stress analyses of cracked aircraft components, in the understanding of the fatigue and fatigue-crack growth process, and in the prediction of residual strength of complex aircraft structures with widespread fatigue damage. Finite-element analyses of cracked structures are now used to determine accurate stress-intensity factors for cracks at structural details. Observations of small-crack behavior at open and rivet-loaded holes and the development of small-crack theory has lead to the prediction of stress-life behavior for components with stress concentrations under aircraft spectrum loading. Fatigue-crack growth under simulated aircraft spectra can now be predicted with the crack-closure concept. Residual strength of cracked panels with severe out-of-plane deformations (buckling) in the presence of stiffeners and multiple-site damage can be predicted with advanced elastic-plastic finite-element analyses and the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. These advances are helping to assure continued safety of aircraft structures.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗

Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

centrifugal pump↗

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability ]or a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

Bonacuse, P. J.↗

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components Under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability for a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

P J Bonacuse↗

Algorithmic Detection of Elemental Biosignatures

Machine learning models that classify a sample as indicative or non-indicative of life could play an important role in life-detection missions. Their predictions result from agnostic algorithms and thereby add redundancy to judgements resulting from human expertise. Additionally, their important features can reveal the most informative measurements within the operational constraints of a life-detection mission. The Ladder of Life Detection (Neveu 2018) identifies the need for an understanding of how combinations of multiple biosignatures affect overall confidence. The present work provides a starting point to answer this need, and future work will expand the data types to obtain even more predictive combinations of features. Elemental abundance was chosen as a starting set of features due to its availability in diverse sample types, which are needed to train a generalizable model. A standardized dataset was collected, including 35 non-indicative, e.g., lunar rock, basalt; 19 indicative mixed, e.g., seawater, agricultural soil; 46 indicative non-alive, e.g., coal, chalk; and 10 indicative alive, e.g., biofilm, bacteria. This dataset could be valuable for complementary biosignature research. The samples were standardized to the same limit of detection of a simulated mission scenario. Four classification models were used: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB). To obtain feature importances, KNN was run on three principal components of the training data and LR and SVM were run with L1 and L2 regularization. The performances and feature importances of the six model variants on 40:60 train to validation ratios were assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. ROC AUC and mean accuracy scores ranged between 82% - 94%, with sensitivity greater than specificity. For indicative of life predictors, all models had C and Ca as strong and Cl as medium; a majority of models had N, K, and P as medium. For non-indicative of life predictors, all models had Si as strong, and a majority of models had Mg, Al, and Ti as medium. Varied elements were Fe (slightly non-indicative), H (slightly indicative), O (widely varied), Na, Mn, and S. These results serve as a proof of concept and suggest important elemental signals beyond merely the CHNOPS of Earth-based life.

Algorithmic↗

Development of Prognostic Models Using Plant Asset Data

The recent growth of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies provides opportunities for leveraging data-driven algorithms to address the problems of diagnostics and prognostics in the nuclear power industry. The use of machine learning and other statistical methods as prognostic models is of particular interest in the nuclear industry to accurately predict future equipment or plant state given a set of measurements. Such predictive capability will enable predictive assessment of component condition and remaining life and allow for condition-based predictive maintenance. The resulting optimization of maintenance scheduling and reduction in unnecessary maintenance activities will lower overall maintenance costs and improve the economics of nuclear power. This report discusses the various aspects of data processing and model development that are likely to influence the performance of prognostic models. Data from a boiling-water reactor was used to evaluate several prognostic models to identify key considerations for developing such models to predict data-driven plant state and equipment degradation condition. Preliminary results indicate the need for data sets that are relevant to the problem at hand and contain signatures that may be correlated to the prediction problem. Assuming such data exist, development of prognostic models using data-driven methods requires an understanding of the various sources of influence on the prediction accuracy (such as the model architecture, data preprocessing approaches, and potentially external factors influencing the equipment or plant system under assessment). Ongoing research is evaluating these factors in greater detail and examining techniques for calculating prediction uncertainty bounds.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Thermal barrier coating life modeling in aircraft gas turbine engines

Analytical models for predicting ceramic thermal barrier coating (TBC) spalling life in aircraft gas turbine engines are presented. Electron beam-physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) and plasma sprayed TBC systems are discussed. An overview of the following TBC spalling mechanisms is presented: metal oxidation at the ceramic-metal interface, ceramic-metal interface stress singularities at edges and corners, ceramic-metal interface stresses caused by radius of curvature and interface roughness, material properties and mechanical behavior, temperature gradients, component design features and object impact damage. TBC spalling life analytical models are proposed based on observations of TBC spalling and plausible failure theories. TBC spalling was assumed to occur when the imposed stresses exceed the material strength (at or near the ceramic-metal interface). TBC failure knowledge gaps caused by lack of experimental evidence and analytical understanding are noted. The analytical models are considered initial engineering approaches that capture observed TBC failure trends.

Nissley, David M.↗

Reliable machine prognostic health management in the presence of missing data

Prognostics and health management enables the prediction of future degradation and remaining useful life (RUL) for in-service systems based on historical and contemporary data, showing promise for many practical applications. One major challenge for prognostics is the common occurrence of missing values in time-series data, often caused by disruptions in sensor communication or hardware/software failures. Another major concern is that the sufficient prior knowledge of critical component degradation with a clear failure threshold is often not readily available in practice. These issues can significantly hinder the application of advanced signal and data analysis methods and consequently degrade the health management performance. In this article, we propose a novel data-driven framework that is capable of providing accurate and reliable predictions of degradation and RUL. In this approach, one-hot health state indicators are appended to the historical time series so that the model learns end-of-life automatically. A modified gate recurrent unit based variational autoencoder is employed in generative adversarial networks to model the temporal irregularity of the incomplete time series. Furthermore, experiments on multivariate time-series datasets collected from real-world aeroengines verify that significant performance improvement can be achieved using the proposed model for robust long-term prognostics.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗