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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Recommendations on the Prediction of Thermal Hazard Distances from Large Liquefied Natural Gas Pool Fires on Water for Solid Flame Models

The objective of this work is to provide recommendations on predicting thermal hazard distances resulting from large liquefied natural gas (LNG) pool fires on water. The recommendations pertain to an integral model approach and its pertinent parameters such as burn rate, flame height, surface emissive power (SEP), and transmissivity. These recommendations are based upon knowledge gained from conducting experiments of LNG pool fires on water at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico in 2009 in addition to earlier, smaller scale tests. The 83 diameter meter test resulted in a 56 m diameter pool fire which is the largest LNG pool fire test performed on water or land to date.

Luketa, Anay Josephine↗

Uncertainty analysis for techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction with centralized upgrading to produce fuel blendstocks

Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising technology for producing transportation fuels with much lower greenhouse gases emissions than petroleum-based fuels. However, its techno-economic and life cycle assessment are primarily based on laboratory scale testing data, subject to considerable uncertainties, and even bias, due to knowledge gaps. Here, a preliminary uncertainty analysis of key economic measures was conducted based on the 2019 state-of-technology model for biocrude production. Building on the preliminary analysis, this work presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis in both economic and environmental measures of the entire supply chain of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction to fuel blendstocks including biocrude upgrading based on the 2021 state-of-technology model. The analysis includes the most recent developments in hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude upgrading technologies and Monte Carlo simulation based on an integrated model system including an improved reactor yield model, reduced-order process model, discounted cash flow economic model and simplified life-cycle assessment model. The estimated biocrude yield ranges from 42.2% to 52.4% with a median of 47.3%. The estimated fuel yield ranges from 34.7% to 42.7% with a median of 38.7%. The estimated minimum fuel selling price ranges from $\$ $2.28/gge to $\$ $3.45/gge with a median of $\$ $2.80/gge. Relative to petroleum-derived diesel, the estimated reduction in supply chain greenhouse gas emissions ranges from 73.4% to 81.8% with a median of 77.7%. Compared to the 2019 state-of-technology analysis, a significant improvement in biocrude selectivity and economic measures and reduction in uncertainties were achieved due to the incorporation of additional continuous experimental data sets, technology development and de-risking, and improvement in model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deep learning-assisted modeling for χ (2) nonlinear optics

Modeling second-order (χ(2)) nonlinear optical processes remains computationally expensive due to the need to resolve fast field oscillations and simulate wave propagation using methods such as the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). This can become a bottleneck in real-time applications, such as high-repetition-rate laser systems requiring rapid feedback and control. We present a long short-term memory-based surrogate model trained on SSFM simulations generated from a start-to-end model of the photocathode drive laser at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory’s Linac Coherent Light Source II. The model achieves over 250× speedup while maintaining high fidelity, enabling future real-time optimization and laying the foundation for data-integrated modeling frameworks and digital twins of laser systems.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

Lagrangian photochemical modeling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex. I - Comparison with AAOE observations

Results from the Lagrangian photochemical model integrated along computed air parcel trajectories intersected by the ER-2 aircraft are presented and compared with AAOE observations. According to the model, the BrO observations made from the ER-2 within the dehydrated denitrified region are consistent with there being approximately 5 parts per trillion by volume of BrO(y) at 428 K in spring. Within the high ClO region, ozone destruction rates are expected to exceed 2 percent/d with approximately 80 percent due to the ClO dimer mechanism.

Jones, R. L.↗

Mechanism-based modeling of thermal and irradiation creep behavior: An application to ferritic/martensitic HT9 steel

In this work, the creep behavior of HT9 steel in both thermal and irradiation environments is predicted using an integrated modeling framework. Multiple physical mechanisms such as diffusional creep and dislocation climb are incorporated into crystal plasticity calculations using the Visco-Plastic Self-Consistent (VPSC) approach. Climb velocities are informed by mean field rate theory laws in place of empirical power law formulations. More interestingly, the climb velocities explicitly consider the contribution of irradiation-induced point defects, i.e., stress induced preferential absorption (SIPA) effect. The developed expressions are shown to apply under conventional thermal creep and to the more complex irradiation conditions as well. This physically-informed, mechanism-based model is used to simulate the creep strain evolution of HT9 pressurized tubes under various loading conditions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the experimental behavior of this material reported in the literature is well described by this theoretical framework. The role of each relevant mechanism is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of the Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-Loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) for Dynamic Systems Analysis

The aircraft engine design process seeks to achieve the best overall system-level performance, weight, and cost for a given engine design. This is achieved by a complex process known as systems analysis, where steady-state simulations are used to identify trade-offs that should be balanced to optimize the system. The steady-state simulations and data on which systems analysis relies may not adequately capture the true performance trade-offs that exist during transient operation. Dynamic Systems Analysis provides the capability for assessing these trade-offs at an earlier stage of the engine design process. The concept of dynamic systems analysis and the type of information available from this analysis are presented in this paper. To provide this capability, the Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) was developed. This tool aids a user in the design of a power management controller to regulate thrust, and a transient limiter to protect the engine model from surge at a single flight condition (defined by an altitude and Mach number). Results from simulation of the closed-loop system may be used to estimate the dynamic performance of the model. This enables evaluation of the trade-off between performance and operability, or safety, in the engine, which could not be done with steady-state data alone. A design study is presented to compare the dynamic performance of two different engine models integrated with the TTECTrA software.

systems analysis↗

Incorporating Beam Attenuation Calculations into an Integrated Data Analysis Model for Ion Effective Charge

Here, we have created a forward model for charge-exchange impurity density measurements that incorporates neutral beam attenuation measurements self-consistently for the purpose of determining the ion-effective charge Z eff . The model is constructed within an integrated data analysis framework to include a self-consistent calculation of neutral beam attenuation due to multiple impurity species into the measurement of a single impurity density. The model includes measurements of the beam Doppler-shift spectrum and shine-through particle flux to determine the neutral beam particle density which is attenuated by ion collisions. Synthetic data are generated from the diagnostic forward model using statistical and calibration uncertainties. These “noisy” data are used in the analysis to evaluate how accurately Z eff is determined. Methods of experimental design are employed to calculate the information gained from different diagnostic combinations. The analysis shows that while attenuation measurements alone do not provide a unique impurity density measurement in the case of a multispecies inhomogeneous plasma, they do provide an effective measurement of the Z eff profile and place constraints on the impurity density profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Technology Development Life Cycle Processes

This report and set of appendices are a collection of memoranda originally drafted in 2009 for the purpose of providing motivation and the necessary background material to support the definition and integration of engineering and management processes related to technology development. At the time there was interest and support to move from Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Level One (ad hoc processes) to Level Three. As presented herein, the material begins with a survey of open literature perspectives on technology development life cycles, including published data on “what went wrong.” The main thrust of the material presents a rational exposé of a structured technology development life cycle that uses the scientific method as a framework, with further rigor added from adapting relevant portions of the systems engineering process. The material concludes with a discussion on the use of multiple measures to assess technology maturity, including consideration of the viewpoint of potential users.

Beck, David Franklin↗

Numerical simulation of polar lows and comma clouds using simple dry models

Linear and nonlinear numerical channel models are used to simulate polar low/comma cloud evolution. The basic state of the model is idealized and can be specified analytically. It has strong horizontal as well as vertical wind shear and implicitly includes the effect of sensible heat fluxes from the lower boundary. This is done by having a layer of reduced stability present in the lower troposphere. The results of the linear model study are presented and used to provide input for the nonlinear model integration. It is shown that, given sufficient horizontal resolution, many features of polar low/comma clouds can be simulated by the nonlinear primitive equations model and the idealized basic state, in particular a rapidly growing disturbance with a wavelength on the order of 1000 km.

Mudrick, Stephen E.↗

The Impact of ARM on Climate Modeling

Climate models are among humanity's most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability, and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of the Earth down to one hundred kilometers or smaller, and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. The atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). In an AGCM, calculations are done on a three-dimensional grid, which in some of today's climate models consists of several million grid cells. For each grid cell, about a dozen variables are time-stepped as the model integrates forward from its initial conditions. These so-called prognostic variables have special importance because they are the only things that a model remembers from one time step to the next; everything else is recreated on each time step by starting from the prognostic variables and the boundary conditions. The prognostic variables typically include information about the mass of dry air, the temperature, the wind components, water vapor, various condensed-water species, and at least a few chemical species such as ozone. A good way to understand how climate models work is to consider the lengthy and complex process used to develop one. Lets imagine that a new AGCM is to be created, starting from a blank piece of paper. The model may be intended for a particular class of applications, e.g., high-resolution simulations on time scales of a few decades. Before a single line of code is written, the conceptual foundation of the model must be designed through a creative envisioning that starts from the intended application and is based on current understanding of how the atmosphere works and the inventory of mathematical methods available.

atmospheric circulation↗

Evaluating the Impact of Tritium Permeation Membrane Performance and Direct Internal Recycling on Fusion Fuel Cycle Efficiency Using TMAP8

An efficient fuel cycle is vital to sustainable and cost-effective energy generation in fusion systems. Since tritium is not widely available, fusion systems must breed their own tritium for sustainable fusion deuterium-tritium reactions. An inefficient fuel cycle increases the tritium inventory needed for operations, which increases costs, constraints on tritium management systems, and safety concerns. A fuel cycle model is a powerful tool for understanding tritium inventories and flow rates across all systems in the fuel cycle. By simplifying the technical details into time-dependent tritium flow rates and inventories, the model can simulate the entire fuel cycle with high computational efficiency, even for technologies that are still under development. It can therefore quantify the impact of new tritium management technologies on fuel cycle efficiency. To evaluate the impact of key components on reducing tritium inventory, we are using and expanding an existing fuel cycle models based on latest advancements in fuel cycle research. The new model integrates Tritium Permeation Membrane (TPM) and Direct Internal Recycling (DIR) to enhance tritium transport from blanket breeders and plasma exhaust. These fuel cycle models are implemented in TMAP8 (Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8), a MOOSE-based open-source application designed to provide cutting-edge capabilities for tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling. The study aims to demonstrate the extensibility of existing fuel cycle modeling capability in TMAP8 and to offer a proof-of-principle design for future fusion plant systems. The presentation will cover the performance of fuel cycle modeling capabilities available in TMAP8, highlight advancements in fuel cycle research, and present a sensitivity analysis of these models. The results underline potential approaches and technology solutions to lower tritium inventory requirements, highlighting their role in shaping the future of fusion energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

One System Overview - 16579

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of River Protection (ORP) is responsible for managing and completing the River Protection Project mission, which is to 'safeguard the nuclear waste stored in Hanford's 177 underground tanks, and to manage the waste safely and responsibly until it can be treated in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant for final disposition'. The Office of River Protection's work scope is currently performed through two primary contracts: - The Tank Operations Contract, held by Washington River Protection Solutions LLC, (WRPS) includes the construction, operation, and maintenance activities necessary to safely store, retrieve, and transfer tank wastes; provide supplemental tank waste treatment; provide storage and/or disposal of primary and secondary waste streams; design, construction and commissioning of the Low-Activity Waste Pretreatment System; and support ORP to integrate Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) completion and startup with Tank Farms operations. - The WTP Contract, held by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI), includes the design, construction, and commissioning of a Pretreatment Facility, two vitrification facilities (one for high-level waste and one for low-activity waste), a dedicated analytical laboratory, and supporting facilities to treat radioactive tank wastes by immobilizing them into a stable glass waste form. One System was established as a means to improve the integration between the tank farms and the WTP project to support its safe and successful startup. One System's scope and purpose focus on mission integration consistent with DOE's plans to treat tank waste in phases, starting with direct feed of the low-activity waste stream to the WTP's Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Vitrification Facility (referred to as DFLAW). The One System organization now has four major focus areas: - Flowsheet Integration? Integrated River Protection Project (RPP) flowsheet development and management; developing a gaps, risks, and opportunities management plan and technical roadmap; and waste feed qualification. - Mission Analysis and Planning? Strategic planning, system planning, and modeling integration. - WTP Startup, Commissioning, and Operations Integration? Interface Control Document (ICD) management, coordinating facilities startup-to-commissioning-to-operations, contract directives and standards identification, and DFLAW program integration. - Project Integration and Controls? Integrated schedule, metrics/dashboards monitoring, and One System risk register. ORP established the DFLAW Program Office in February 2015 as one of its key performance goals. ORP staff, along with contractor managers, have identified roles and responsibilities for the each of the four major focus areas. One System has established an Executive Council and Governance Board to drive program progress and make decisions on DFLAW. This approach allows appropriate government and contractor senior management involvement in the DFLAW Program. Monthly critical path analysis on the integrated DFLAW schedule is being performed. Interface control documents specific to DFLAW have been developed, and system planning and modeling tools are being used to help define the DFLAW flowsheet. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

AToM (Advanced Tokamak Modeling)

This final report for the AToM project documents the contributions from General Atomics over the period 1 September 2014 to 31 August 2017. This includes significant progress on the development of tokamak integrated modeling frameworks (OMFIT and IPS), and development of new workflows for computing plasma profile (temperature, density, etc) evolution. Significant effort was also carried out in the high-performance computing arena, by adding the COGENT edge-simulation code to the AToM portfolio, and performing optimization of the CGYRO plasma turbulence code. Issues of data management and user outreach are also documented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Iterative reconstruction using a Monte Carlo based system transfer matrix for dedicated breast positron emission tomography

To maximize sensitivity, it is desirable that ring Positron Emission Tomography (PET) systems dedicated for imaging the breast have a small bore. Unfortunately, due to parallax error this causes substantial degradation in spatial resolution for objects near the periphery of the breast. In this work, a framework for computing and incorporating an accurate system matrix into iterative reconstruction is presented in an effort to reduce spatial resolution degradation towards the periphery of the breast. The GATE Monte Carlo Simulation software was utilized to accurately model the system matrix for a breast PET system. A strategy for increasing the count statistics in the system matrix computation and for reducing the system element storage space was used by calculating only a subset of matrix elements and then estimating the rest of the elements by using the geometric symmetry of the cylindrical scanner. To implement this strategy, polar voxel basis functions were used to represent the object, resulting in a block-circulant system matrix. Simulation studies using a breast PET scanner model with ring geometry demonstrated improved contrast at 45% reduced noise level and 1.5 to 3 times resolution performance improvement when compared to MLEM reconstruction using a simple line-integral model. The GATE based system matrix reconstruction technique promises to improve resolution and noise performance and reduce image distortion at FOV periphery compared to line-integral based system matrix reconstruction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

IES↗

Final Technical Report for Grant No. DE-FC02-01ER54648, SciDAC Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions

Harnessing the energy that is released in fusion reactions would provide a safe and abundant source of power to meet the growing energy needs of the world population. The next step toward the development of fusion as a practical energy source is the construction of ITER, a device capable of producing and controlling the high performance plasma required for self-sustaining fusion reactions, or “burning” plasma. The input power required to drive the ITER plasma into the burning regime will be supplied primarily with a combination of external power from radio frequency waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies and energetic ions from neutral beam injection sources, in addition to internally-generated Ohmic heating from the induced plasma current that also serves to create the magnetic equilibrium for the discharge. Since the success of the ITER project depends critically on the ability to create and maintain burning plasma conditions, it is absolutely necessary to have physics-based models that can accurately simulate the RF processes that affect the dynamical evolution of the ITER discharge. The Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions (CSWPI) is a multi-institutional collaboration that has conducted ongoing research aimed at developing: (1) Coupled core-to-edge simulations that will lead to an increased understanding of parasitic losses of the applied RF power in the boundary plasma between the RF antenna and the core plasma; (2) Development of models for core interactions of RF waves with energetic electrons and ions (including fusion alpha particles and fast neutral beam ions) that include a more accurate representation of the particle dynamics in the combined equilibrium and wave fields; and (3) Development of improved algorithms that will take advantage of massively parallel computing platforms at the petascale level and beyond to achieve the needed physics, resolution, and/or statistics to address these issues. This research reported in this final technical report is focused on further verification and validation of simulation models for interactions of RF waves with energetic particles in the core with a long term goal of assessing their readiness for inclusion in integrated modeling frameworks and utilizing the world’s largest supercomputers to quantitatively predict the detailed electric field structure in the vicinity of the launching structures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improved Understanding of Coupled Water and Carbon Cycle Processes through Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area(s): This white paper addresses how explainable machine learning (ML) algorithms can improve insights gained from complex data (Focal Area 3). We will also address how ML approaches related to sensor compression and low energy AI hardware can be used for efficient data acquisition (Focal Area 1). Science Challenge: We will focus on the coupled water cycle and carbon cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Thus, our approaches will be centered around several data-model integration challenges indicated in EESD strategic plans for two science focus areas: Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Hydrobiogeochemistry. We can use AI to correct systematic model errors due to biases in either data or model structure/processes. Error patterns in model predictions usually vary by region, model, season etc. But there are systematic patterns in them. e.g., soil moisture tends to be overestimated in the arid western continental United States underestimated in wetter eastern USA; some land surface models tend to underestimate moisture in wet seasons and overestimate in dry seasons. Moreover, the consequences of extreme events (e.g., drought, extreme flooding, storm surges associated with tropical storms, hurricanes) on carbon cycle processes are not well represented in ecosystem and Earth system models. Redox-sensitive processes (e.g., rapid oxidation/reduction of iron and other redox-sensitive elements in soil microsites subjected to fluctuated hydrology) in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces further challenge model predictions of hot-spots (and hot-moments) due to poor understanding of underlying mechanisms. Thus, AI/ML approaches can be used to learn patterns in the data and model errors and use them to build model equations and correct process-based model errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗