Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “impact study”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,099 records · Page 61

The Effect of Electrolyte Additives upon the Lithium Kinetics of Li-Ion Cells Containing MCMB and LiNi(x)Co(1-x)O2 Electrodes and Exposed to High Temperatures

With the intent of improving the performance of lithium-ion cells at high temperatures, we have investigated the use of a number of electrolyte additives in experimental MCMB- Li(x)Ni(y)Co(1-y)O2 cells, which were exposed to temperatures as high as 80 C. In the present work, we have evaluated the use of a number of additives, namely vinylene carbonate (VC), dimethyl acetamide (DMAc), and mono-fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC), in an electrolyte solution anticipated to perform well at warm temperature (i.e., 1.0M LiPF6 in EC+EMC (50:50 v/v %). In addition, we have explored the use of novel electrolyte additives, namely lithium oxalate and lithium tetraborate. In addition to determining the capacity and power losses at various temperatures sustained as a result of high temperature cycling (cycling performed at 60 and 80 C), the three-electrode MCMB-Li(x)Ni(y)Co(1-y)O2 cells (lithium reference) enabled us to study the impact of high temperature storage upon the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film characteristics on carbon anodes (MCMB-based materials), metal oxide cathodes, and the subsequent impact upon electrode kinetics.

High Temperture Resilience↗

Thermochemical Ablation Analysis of the Orion Heatshield

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle will one day carry astronauts to the Moon and beyond, and Orion's heatshield is a critical component in ensuring their safe return to Earth. The Orion heatshield is the structural component responsible for absorbing the intense heating environment caused by re-entry to Earth's atmosphere. The heatshield is primarily composed of Avcoat, an ablative material that is consumed during the re-entry process. Ablation is primarily characterized by two processes: pyrolysis and recession. The decomposition of in-depth virgin material is known as pyrolysis. Recession occurs when the exposed surface of the heatshield reacts with the surrounding flow. The Orion heatshield design was changed from an individually filled Avcoat honeycomb to a molded block Avcoat design. The molded block Avcoat heatshield relies on an adhesive bond to keep it attached to the capsule. In some locations on the heatshield, the integrity of the adhesive bond cannot be verified. For these locations, a mechanical retention device was proposed. Avcoat ablation was modelled in CHAR and the in-depth virgin material temperatures were used in a Thermal Desktop model of the mechanical retention device. The retention device was analyzed and shown to cause a large increase in the maximum bondline temperature. In order to study the impact of individual ablation modelling parameters on the heatshield sizing process, a Monte Carlo simulation of the sizing process was proposed. The simulation will give the sensitivity of the ablation model to each of its input parameters. As part of the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on material properties were required for Avcoat. Several properties were difficult to acquire uncertainties for: the pyrolysis gas enthalpy, non-dimensional mass loss rate (B´c), and Arrhenius equation parameters. Variability in the elemental composition of Avcoat was used as the basis for determining the statistical uncertainty in pyrolysis gas enthalpy and B´c. A MATLAB program was developed to allow for faster, more accurate and automated computation of Arrhenius reaction parameters. These parameters are required for a material model to be used in the CHAR ablation analysis program. This MATLAB program, along with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data, was used to generate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for Avcoat. In addition, the TGA fitting program was developed to provide Arrhenius parameters for the ablation model of the gap filler material, RTV silicone.

Sixel, William↗

Experimental Study of Characteristics of Micro-Hole Porous Skins for Turbulent Skin Friction Reduction

Characteristics of micro-hole porous skins for the turbulent skin friction reduction technology called the micro-blowing technique (MBT) were assessed experimentally at Mach 0.4 and blowing fractions from zero to 0.005. The objective of this study was to provide guidelines for the selection of porous plates for MBT. The hole angle, pattern, diameter, aspect ratio, and porosity were the parameters considered for this study. The additional effort to angle and stagger the holes was experimentally determined to be unwarranted in terms of skin friction benefit; therefore, these parameters were systematically eliminated from the parametric study. The impact of the remaining three parameters was evaluated by fixing two parameters at the reference values while varying the third parameter. The best hole-diameter Reynolds number was found to be around 400, with an optimum aspect ratio of about 6. The optimum porosity was not conclusively discerned because the range of porosities in the test plates considered was not great enough. However, the porosity was estimated to be about 15 percent or less.

Hwang, Danny P.↗

The Cr Redox Record of fO2 Variation in Angrites. Evidence for Redox Conditions of Angrite Petrogenesis and Parent Body

Angrites represent some of the earliest stages of planetesimal differentiation. Not surprisingly, there is no simple petrogenetic model for their origin. Petrogenesis has been linked to both magmatic and impact processes. Studies demonstrated that melting of chondritic material (e.g. CM, CV) at redox conditions where pure iron metal is unstable (e.g., IW+1 to IW+2) produced angrite-like melts. Alternatively, angrites were produced at more reducing conditions (<IW) with their exotic melt compositions resulting from carbonates in the source or from nebular condensation. Clearly, understanding what role fO2 plays in producing angrite magmas is critical for deciphering their petrogenesis and extending our understanding of primordial melting of asteroids. Calculations for the fO2 conditions of angrite crystallization are limited, and only preliminary attempts been made to understand the changes in fO2 that occurred during petrogenesis. Many of the angrites have phase assemblages which provide conflicting signals about redox conditions during crystallization (e.g., Fe metal and a Fe-Ti oxide with potential Fe3+. There have been several estimates of fO2 for angrites. Most notably, experiments examined the variation of DEu/DGd with fO2, between plagioclase and fassaitic pyroxene in equilibrium with an angrite melt composition. They used their observations to estimate the fO2 of crystallization to be approximately IW+0.6 for angrite LEW 86010. This estimate is only a "snapshot" of fO2 conditions during co-crystallization of plagioclase and pyroxene. Preliminary XANES analyses of V redox state in pyroxenes from D'Orbigny reported changes in fO2 from IW-0.7 during early pyroxene crystallization to IW+0.5 during latter episodes of pyroxene crystallization [15]. As this was a preliminary report, it presented limited information concerning the effects of pyroxene orientation and composition on the V valence measurements, and the effect of melt composition on valence and partitioning behavior of V. A closer examination of fO2 as recorded by Cr valence state in olivine will allow us to test models for primordial melting of chondritic material to produce the angrite parent melts. Here, we report the our initial stages of examining the origin and conditions of primordial melting on the angrite parent body and test some of the above models by integrating an experimental study of Cr and V valence partitioning between olivine [OL] and an angrite melt, with micro-scale determinations of Cr and V oxidation state in OL in selected "volcanic" angrites.

Shearer, Charles K.↗

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to- model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

histories↗

Shape Effect Analysis of Aluminum Projectile Impact on Whipple Shields

The informed design with respect to hypervelocity collisions involving micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) is influential to the success of space missions. For an orbit comparable to that of the International Space Station, velocities for MMOD can range from 1 to 15 km/s, with an average velocity around 10 km/cu s. The high energy released during collisions at these speeds can result in damage to a spacecraft, or worst-case, loss of the spacecraft, thus outlining the importance of methods to predict the likelihood and extent of damage due to an impact. Through experimental testing and numerical simulations, substantial work has been conducted to better understand the effects of hypervelocity impacts (HVI) on spacecraft systems and shields; however, much of the work has been focused on spherical impacting particles. To improve environment models for the analysis of MMOD, a large-scale satellite break-up test was performed at the Arnold Engineering and Development Complex to better understand the varied impactor geometries that could be generated from a large impact. As a part of the post-experiment analysis, an undertaking to characterize the irregular fragments generated is currently being performed by the University of Florida under the management of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC). DebriSat was a representative, modern LEO satellite that was catastrophically broken up in a HVI test. The test chamber was lined with a soft-catch system of foam panels that captured the fragments after impact. Initial predictions put the number of fragments larger than 2mm generated from the HVI at roughly 85,000. The number of fragments thus far extracted from the foam panels has exceeded 100,000, with that number continuously increasing. The shapes of the fragments vary dependent upon the material. Carbon-fiber reinforced polymer pieces, for instance, are abundantly found as thin, flat slivers. The characterization of these fragments with respect to their mass, size, and material composition needs to be summarized in a form that can be used in MMOD analysis. The mechanism that brings these fragment traits into MMOD analysis is through ballistic limit equations (BLE) that have been developed largely for a few types of materials1. As a BLE provides the failure threshold for a shield or spacecraft component based on parameters such as the projectile impact velocity and size, and the target's materials, thickness, and configuration, it is used to design protective shields for spacecraft such as Whipple shields (WS) to an acceptable risk level. The majority of experiments and simulations to test shields and validate BLEs have, heretofore, largely used spheres as the impactor, not properly reflecting the irregular shapes of MMOD. This shortfall has motivated a numerical impact analysis study of HVI involving non-spherical geometries to identify key parameters that environment models should provide.

Carrasquilla, Maria J.↗

Understanding the Effects of Collisional Evolution and Spacecraft Impact Experiments on Comets and Asteroids

Comets and asteroids have endured impacts from other solar system bodies that result in outcomes ranging from catastrophic collisions to regolith evolution due to micrometeorid bombardment of the surface ices and refactory components. Experiments designed to better understand these relics of solar system formation have been conducted on Earth in a laboratory setting, as well as in space through, e.g., the Deep Impact Mission to Comet Tempel 1. Deep Impact fired a high-speed impactor into the roughly 6 km nucleus of the comet. The ejecta plume generated by the impact was studied by both spacecraft instrumentation and groundbased telescopes.

Lederer, S.M.↗

Monitoring Orbital Precession of EO-1 Hyperion With Three Atmospheric Correction Models in the Libya-4 PICS

Spaceborne spectrometers require spectral-temporal stability characterization to aid in validation of derived data products. Earth Observation 1 (EO-1) began orbital precession in 2011 after exhausting onboard fuel resources. In the Libya-4 pseudo-invariant calibration site (PICS), this resulted in a progressive shift from a mean local equatorial crossing time of approximately10:00 A.M. in 2011 to approximately 8:30 A.M. in late 2015. Here, we studied precession impacts to Hyperion surface reflectance products using three atmospheric correction approaches from 2004 to 2015. Combined difference estimates of surface reflectance were less than 5 percent in the visible near infrared (VNIR) and less than 10 percent for most of the shortwave infrared (SWIR). Combined coefficient of variation estimates in the VNIR ranged from 0.025 to 0.095, and in the SWIR it ranged from 0.025 to 0.06, excluding bands near atmospheric absorption features. Reflectances produced with different atmospheric models were correlated (R squared) in VNIR from 0.25 to 0.94 and in SWIR from 0.12 to 0.88 (p value (calculated probability) less than 0.01). The uncertainties in all the models increased with a terrain slope up to 15 degrees and selecting dune flats could reduce errors. We conclude that these data remain a valuable resource over this period for sensor intercalibration despite orbital decay.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

High-Contrast Coronagraph Performance in the Presence of DM Actuator Defects

Deformable Mirrors (DMs) are critical elements in high contrast coronagraphs, requiring precision and stability measured in picometers to enable detection of Earth-like exoplanets. Occasionally DM actuators or their associated cables or electronics fail, requiring a wavefront control algorithm to compensate for actuators that may be displaced from their neighbors by hundreds of nanometers. We have carried out experiments on our High-Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) to study the impact of failed actuators in partial fulfillment of the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph optical model validation milestone. We show that the wavefront control algorithm adapts to several broken actuators and maintains dark-hole contrast in broadband light.

adaptive optics↗

Coupled Aerosol-Cloud Systems over Northern Vietnam during 7-SEAS BASELInE: A Radar and Modeling Perspective

The 2013 7-SEASBASELInE campaign over northern Southeast Asia (SEA) provided, for the first time ever, comprehensive ground-based W-band radar measurements of the low-level stratocumulus (Sc) systems that often exist during the spring over northern Vietnam in the presence of biomass-burning aerosols. Although spatially limited, ground-based remote sensing observations are generally free of the surface contamination and signal attenuation effects that often hinder space-borne measurements of these low-level cloud systems. Such observations permit detailed measurements of structures and lifecycles of these clouds as part of a broader effort to study potential impacts of these coupled aerosol-cloud systems on local and regional weather and air quality. Introductory analyses of the W-band radar data show these Sc systems generally follow a diurnal cycle, with peak occurrences during the nighttime and early morning hours, often accompanied by light precipitation. Preliminary results from idealized simulations of Sc development over land based on the observations reveal the familiar response of increased numbers and smaller sizes of cloud droplets, along with suppressed drizzle formation, as aerosol concentrations increase. Slight reductions in simulated W-band reflectivity values also are seen with increasing aerosol concentrations and result primarily from decreased droplet sizes. As precipitation can play a large role in removing aerosol from the atmosphere, and thereby improving air quality locally, quantifying feedbacks between aerosols and cloud systems over this region are essential, particularly given the negative impacts of biomass burning on human health in SEA. Such an endeavor should involve improved modeling capabilities along with comprehensive measurements of time-dependent aerosol and cloud profiles.

aerosol cloud interactions↗

Production of Peroxy Nitrates in Boreal Biomass Burning Plumes over Canada During the BORTAS Campaign

The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3 and total peroxy nitrates (sigma)PNs, (sigma)ROONO2. The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of (sigma)PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions.In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of (sigma)PNs, where as minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order react Pions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of (sigma)PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of (sigma)PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average (sigma)PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign,fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3;but (1)(sigma)PN production is amplified significantly more thanO3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the (sigma)PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the (sigma)PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.

biomass burning↗

Materials Science Corrosion Internship Overview

The overarching purpose of this semester-long internship at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) was to study the impacts of corrosion regarding the development of ground support equipment (GSE), launch support structures, and flight hardware in aid of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion program. Environmental corrosion is known as one of the largest material degradation issues for any structure comprised of metal on the Space Coast and requires the initiation of special protective measures for proper corrosion mitigation. The four (4) projects to be described were conducted with NASA Civil Servants and NASA Contractors who provided necessary resources to ensure the highest quality of data acquisition and knowledge transfer. The main objective shared between all four (4) of the following projects was to assess the modes by which corrosion takes place in multiple environments as well as the methods by which these modes of corrosion can be reduced for the enhancement of the mechanical, structural, and chemical compatibility of those respective environments with different candidate metals. A multitude of test methods were performed over the duration of this internship to assess the corrosive properties of these different candidate metals.

Ground Systems Development and Operations↗

Closed Loop Guidance Trade Study for Space Launch System Block-1B Vehicle

NASA is currently building the Space Launch System (SLS) Block-1 launch vehicle for the Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) test flight. The design of the next evolution of SLS, Block-1B, is well underway. The Block-1B vehicle is more capable overall than Block-1; however, the relatively low thrust-to-weight ratio of the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) presents a challenge to the Powered Explicit Guidance (PEG) algorithm used by Block-1. To handle the long burn durations (on the order of 1000 seconds) of EUS missions, two algorithms were examined. An alternative algorithm, OPGUID, was introduced, while modifications were made to PEG. A trade study was conducted to select the guidance algorithm for future SLS vehicles. The chosen algorithm needs to support a wide variety of mission operations: ascent burns to LEO, apogee raise burns, trans-lunar injection burns, hyperbolic Earth departure burns, and contingency disposal burns using the Reaction Control System (RCS). Additionally, the algorithm must be able to respond to a single engine failure scenario. Each algorithm was scored based on pre-selected criteria, including insertion accuracy, algorithmic complexity and robustness, extensibility for potential future missions, and flight heritage. Monte Carlo analysis was used to select the final algorithm. This paper covers the design criteria, approach, and results of this trade study, showing impacts and considerations when adapting launch vehicle guidance algorithms to a broader breadth of in-space operations.

Von der Porten, Paul↗

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

integrated demand management↗

Global Assimilation of Loon Stratospheric Balloon Observations

Accurate analyses of stratospheric winds are important for determining realistic constituent transport and providing improved diagnostic studies and forecasts of the stratosphere. This study examines impacts on global meteorological analyses resulting from using winds derived from Loon superpressure balloons in the lower stratosphere (hereafter Loon winds) as additional input observations to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system. To fully investigate the impacts of assimilating the Loon winds, two steps are taken: (1) comparison of the GEOS analysis winds with Loon winds (Control experiment) and (2) examination of the impacts of assimilating the Loon winds into the GEOS data assimilation system (Loon experiment). The time period selected is June–August 2014 when over 150 Loon balloons were launched, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the middle latitudes, the Loon winds and Control winds agree well (Loon balloon zonal wind observation minus forecast, O − F, root‐mean‐square (RMS) values of ~2.75 m/s) and assimilating the Loon winds has a small impact (O − F RMS values unchanged). In the tropics, the Loon observations and Control analysis winds differ more than in middle latitudes (zonal wind O − F RMS ~3.75 m/s) and assimilating the Loon winds improves the zonal wind O − F RMS by ~1 m/s. In selected cases where the Loon observations and Control analysis differ greatly (O − F RMS values greater than 10 m/s), assimilating Loon winds significantly decreases the zonal wind O − F RMS by 5 m/s. These decreases in O − F RMS values show that the 6‐hr forecasts are improved at the Loon balloon observation locations. While satellites routinely measure Earth's global temperatures from space, in situ wind measurements are relatively scarce, consisting mainly of a network of ground‐based weather balloons. Since only a limited number of the weather balloons even reach stratospheric altitudes, there is a need for additional stratospheric observations. One option for addition wind information is the use of experimental superpressure balloons (SPBs). SPBs can remain in the stratosphere for many months traveling with the winds and hence, by reporting their changing positions, providing in situ wind observations. These SPBs experiments are generally limited in terms of time period and number of balloons. However, over the past few years Loon has been launching hundreds of SPBs (hereafter called Loon balloons) providing a more consistent set of observations of wind in the stratosphere. Here we assimilate some of the Loon balloon winds into the NASA GEOS global data assimilation system. The data assimilation system combines all observations with an atmospheric model to produce global analysis of winds and temperatures. Results show that including the Loon balloon wind information noticeably affects the global analysis as well as forecasts with the largest impact in the tropics. These results provide direction to future model and analysis improvements.

L. Coy↗

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗