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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Gas diffusion through variably-water-saturated zeolitic tuff: Implications for transport following a subsurface nuclear event

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the characterization of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Without accurate transport models, it is nearly impossible to distinguish between xenon signatures originating from civilian nuclear facilities and UNEs. Understanding xenon transport time through the earth is a key parameter for interpreting measured xenon isotopic ratios. One of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport time is accounting for the effect of variable water saturation of geological media. In this study, we utilize bench-scale laboratory experiments to characterize the diffusion of krypton, xenon, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) through intact zeolitic tuff under different saturations. Here, we demonstrate that the water in rock cores with low partial saturation dramatically affects xenon transport time compared to that of krypton and SF6 by blocking sites in zeolitic tuff that preferentially adsorb xenon. This leads to breakthrough trends that are strongly influenced by the degree of the rock saturation. Xenon is especially susceptible to this phenomenon, a finding that is crucial to incorporate in subsurface gas transport models used for nuclear event identification. We also find that the breakthrough of SF6 diverges significantly from that of noble gases within our system. When developing field scale models, it is important to understand how the behavior of xenon deviates from chemical tracers used in the field, such as SF6 (Carrigan et al., 1996). These new insights demonstrate the critical need to consider the interplay between rock saturation and fission product sorption during transport modeling, and the importance of evaluating specific interactions between geomedia and gases of interest, which may differ from geomedia interactions with chemical tracers.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Unconfined Compression Results on Core from Boreholes U-15n#12 and U-15n#13, NNSS in support of SPE

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) serves as the geologic setting for a Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program. The SPE provides ground truth data to create and improve strong ground motion and seismic S-wave generation and propagation models. The NNSS was chosen as the test bed because it provides a variety of geologic settings ranging from relatively simple to very complex. Each series of SPE testing will comprise the setting and firing of explosive charges (source) placed in a central borehole at varying depths and recording ground motions in instrumented boreholes located in two rings around the source, positioned at different radii. Modeling using advanced simulation codes will be performed both before and after each test to predict ground response and to improve models based on acquired field data, respectively. A key component in the predictive capability and ultimate validation of the models is the full understanding of the intervening geology between the source and the instrumented boreholes including the geomechanical behavior of the site's rock/structural features. This report summarizes unconfined compression testing (UCS) from coreholes U-15n#12 and U-15n#13 and compares those datasets to UCS results from coreholes U-15n and U-15n#10. U-15n#12 corehole was drilled at -60° to the horizontal and U-15n#13 was drilled vertically in granitic rock (quartz monzonite) after the third SPE shot. Figure 1 illustrates at the surface, U 15n#12 and U-15n#13 coreholes were approximately 30 meters and 10 meters from the central SPE borehole (U-15n) respectively. Corehole U-15n#12 intersects the central SPE borehole (U 15n) at a core depth of 174 feet (approximately 150 feet vertical depth). The location of U 15n#12 and U-15n#13 is the site of the first, second and third SPE's, in Area 15 of the NNSS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unconfined Compression Results on Core from Borehole U-15n#10, NNSS, in support of SPE

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) serves as the geologic setting for a Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program. The SPE provides ground truth data to create and improve strong ground motion and seismic S-wave generation and propagation models. The NNSS was chosen as the test bed because it provides a variety of geologic settings ranging from relatively simple to very complex. Each series of SPE testing will comprise the setting and firing of explosive charges (source) placed in a central borehole at varying depths and recording ground motions in instrumented boreholes located in two rings around the source, positioned at different radii. Modeling using advanced simulation codes will be performed both before and after each test to predict ground response and to improve models based on acquired field data, respectively. A key component in the predictive capability and ultimate validation of the models is the full understanding of the intervening geology between the source and the instrumented boreholes including the geomechanical behavior of the site's rock/structural features. This memorandum reports on an initial phase of unconfined compression testing from corehole U-15n#10. Specimens tested came from the U-15n#10 core hole, which was drilled at -60° to the horizontal in granitic rock (quartz monzonite) after the second SPE shot (SPE-2). Figure 1 illustrates at the surface, the core hole was approximately 90 feet from the central SPE borehole. Corehole U 15n#10 intersects the central SPE borehole (U-15n) at a core depth of 170 feet (approximately 150 feet vertical depth) which is within the highly damaged zone of SPE-2. The U-15n#10 location is the site of the first, second and third SPE's, in Area 15 of the NNSS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sediment oxygen profiles in a super-oxygenated antarctic lake

Perennially ice-covered lakes are found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. In contrast to temperate lakes that have diurnal photic periods, antarctic (and arctic) lakes have a yearly photic period. An unusual feature of the antarctic lakes is the occurrence of O2 at supersaturated levels in certain portions of the water column. Here we report the first sediment O2 profiles obtained using a microelectrode from a perennially ice-covered antarctic lake. Sediment cores collected in January and October 1987 from Lake Hoare in Taylor Valley show oxygenation down to 15, and in some cases, 25 cm. The oxygenation of sediments several centimeters below the sediment-water interface is atypical for lake sediments and may be characteristic of perennially ice-covered lakes. There is a significant difference between the observed January and October sediment O2 profiles. Several explanations may account for the difference, including seasonality. A time-dependent model is presented which tests the feasibility of a seasonal cycle resulting from the long photoperiod and benthic primary production in sediments overlain by a highly oxygenated water column.

NASA Center ARC↗

A continuum meshfree method for sandbox-style numerical modeling of accretionary and doubly vergent wedges

Here, in this study, we introduce and utilize GEOSPH, a Lagrangian particle-based continuum Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code to simulate the deformation of geologic materials in sandbox-style experiments using an elastoplastic constitutive model. Due to the meshfree nature of SPH, our proposed framework is capable of handling the large deformations characteristic of sandbox-style experiments. SPH is also able to capture strain localization and discontinuities, allowing us to resolve faulting patterns emerging in the sandbox experiments. We successfully validate our SPH implementation against the benchmark experiments of Buiter and co-workers, and then apply SPH to understand the deformational processes occurring in doubly vergent orogens resultant from the S-point experimental setup and from finitely high wedge-like indenter backstops of different inclinations. We find that the topographic slope of the prowedge results from the competing processes of vertical uplift due to the indenter and forward thrusting, while the topographic slope of the retrowedge is a product of repeated shallow slope failure. Our findings show that SPH is a promising numerical method which should be added to the current palette of computational tools used by structural geologists for solving problems relating to tectonics and crustal deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Task 5 Field Scale Stress Modeling Scripts and Data

Project data and Matlab scripts for Task 5 of the project “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO2 Storage”. Project includes the static earth models, grids and other data used for simulation and calibration of the two case studies addressed in the project, referred to herein as the “FutureGen2” model (Illinois) and the “Perch” model (Otsego county, Michigan). Large Dataset, please contact EDXSupport@netl.doe.gov

FutureGen2↗

Mechanical Testing Results on Core from Borehole U-15n, NNSS, in support of SPE

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) will serve as the geologic setting for a Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program. The SPE will provide ground truth data to create and improve strong ground motion and seismic S-wave generation and propagation models. The NNSS was chosen as the test bed because it provides a variety of geologic settings ranging from relatively simple to very complex. Each series of SPE testing will comprise the setting and firing of explosive charges (source) placed in a central bore hole at varying depths and recording ground motions in instrumented bore holes located in two rings around the source positioned at different radii. Modeling using advanced simulation codes will be performed both a priori and after each test to predict ground response and to improve models based on acquired field data, respectively. A key component in the predictive capability and ultimate validation of the models is the full understanding of the intervening geology between the source and the instrumented bore holes including the geomechanical behavior of the site rock/structural features. This report presents a limited scope of work for an initial phase of primarily unconfined compression testing. Samples tested came from the U-15n core hole, which was drilled in granitic rock (quartz monzonite). The core hole was drilled at the location of the central SPE borehole, and thus represents material in which the explosive charges will be detonated. The U-15n location is the site of the first SPE, in Area 15 of the NNSS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanisms Leading to Co-Existence of Gas Hydrate in Ocean Sediments [Part 1 of 2]

In this project we have sought to explain the co-existence of gas and hydrate phases in sediments within the gas hydrate stability zone. We have focused on the gas/brine interface at the scale of individual grains in the sediment. The capillary forces associated with a gas/brine interface play a dominant role in many processes that occur in the pores of sediments and sedimentary rocks. The mechanical forces associated with the same interface can lead to fracture initiation and propagation in hydrate-bearing sediments. Thus the unifying theme of the research reported here is that pore scale phenomena are key to understanding large scale phenomena in hydrate-bearing sediments whenever a free gas phase is present. Our analysis of pore-scale phenomena in this project has delineated three regimes that govern processes in which the gas phase pressure is increasing: fracturing, capillary fingering and viscous fingering. These regimes are characterized by different morphology of the region invaded by the gas. On the other hand when the gas phase pressure is decreasing, the corresponding regimes are capillary fingering and compaction. In this project, we studied all these regimes except compaction. Many processes of interest in hydrate-bearing sediments can be better understood when placed in the context of the appropriate regime. For example, hydrate formation in sub-permafrost sediments falls in the capillary fingering regime, whereas gas invasion into ocean sediments is likely to fall into the fracturing regime. Our research provides insight into the mechanisms by which gas reservoirs are converted to hydrate as the base of the gas hydrate stability zone descends through the reservoir. If the reservoir was no longer being charged, then variation in grain size distribution within the reservoir explain hydrate saturation profiles such as that at Mt. Elbert, where sand-rich intervals containing little hydrate are interspersed between intervals containing large hydrate saturations. Large volumes (of order one pore volume) of gaseous and aqueous phases must be transported into the gas hydrate stability zone. The driver for this transport is the pressure sink induced by a reduction in occupied pore volume that accompanies the formation of hydrate from gas and water. Pore-scale imbibition models and bed-scale multiphase flow models indicate that the rate-limiting step in converting gas to hydrate is the supply of water to the hydrate stability zone. Moreover, the water supply rate is controlled by capillarity-driven flux for conditions typical of the Alaska North Slope. A meter-scale laboratory experiment confirms that significant volumes of fluid phases move into the hydrate stability zone and that capillarity is essential for the water flux. The model shows that without capillarity-driven flux, large saturations of hydrate cannot form. The observations of thick zones of large saturation at Mallik and Mt Elbert thus suggest that the primary control on these systems is the rate of transport of gaseous and aqueous phases, driven by the pressure sink at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. A key finding of our project is the elucidation of "capillary fracturing" as a dominant gas transport mechanism in low-permeability media. We initially investigate this phenomenon by means of grain-scale simulations in which we extended a discrete element mechanics code (PFC, by Itasca) to incorporate the dynamics of first single-phase and then multiphase flow. A reductionist model on a square lattice allows us to determine some of the fundamental dependencies of the mode of gas invasion (capillary fingering, viscous fingering, and fracturing) on the parameters of the system. We then show that the morphology of the gas-invaded region exerts a fundamental control on the fabric of methane hydrate formation, and on the overpressures caused by methane hydrate dissociation. We demonstrate the existence of the different invasion regimes by means of controlled laboratory experiments in a radial cell. We collapse the behavior in the form of a phase diagram fully characterized by two dimensionless groups: a modified capillary number and a "fracturing number" that reflects the balance between the pressure forces that act to open conduits in the granular pack, and frictional forces that resist it. We use all this small-scale knowledge to propose simple mechanistic models of gas migration and hydrate formation at the geologic bed scale. We propose that methane transport in lake and oceanic sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other methane-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanisms Leading to Co-Existence of Gas Hydrate in Ocean Sediments [Part 2 of 2]

In this project we have sought to explain the co-existence of gas and hydrate phases in sediments within the gas hydrate stability zone. We have focused on the gas/brine interface at the scale of individual grains in the sediment. The capillary forces associated with a gas/brine interface play a dominant role in many processes that occur in the pores of sediments and sedimentary rocks. The mechanical forces associated with the same interface can lead to fracture initiation and propagation in hydrate-bearing sediments. Thus the unifying theme of the research reported here is that pore scale phenomena are key to understanding large scale phenomena in hydrate-bearing sediments whenever a free gas phase is present. Our analysis of pore-scale phenomena in this project has delineated three regimes that govern processes in which the gas phase pressure is increasing: fracturing, capillary fingering and viscous fingering. These regimes are characterized by different morphology of the region invaded by the gas. On the other hand when the gas phase pressure is decreasing, the corresponding regimes are capillary fingering and compaction. In this project, we studied all these regimes except compaction. Many processes of interest in hydrate-bearing sediments can be better understood when placed in the context of the appropriate regime. For example, hydrate formation in sub-permafrost sediments falls in the capillary fingering regime, whereas gas invasion into ocean sediments is likely to fall into the fracturing regime. Our research provides insight into the mechanisms by which gas reservoirs are converted to hydrate as the base of the gas hydrate stability zone descends through the reservoir. If the reservoir was no longer being charged, then variation in grain size distribution within the reservoir explain hydrate saturation profiles such as that at Mt. Elbert, where sand-rich intervals containing little hydrate are interspersed between intervals containing large hydrate saturations. Large volumes (of order one pore volume) of gaseous and aqueous phases must be transported into the gas hydrate stability zone. The driver for this transport is the pressure sink induced by a reduction in occupied pore volume that accompanies the formation of hydrate from gas and water. Pore-scale imbibition models and bed-scale multiphase flow models indicate that the rate-limiting step in converting gas to hydrate is the supply of water to the hydrate stability zone. Moreover, the water supply rate is controlled by capillarity-driven flux for conditions typical of the Alaska North Slope. A meter-scale laboratory experiment confirms that significant volumes of fluid phases move into the hydrate stability zone and that capillarity is essential for the water flux. The model shows that without capillarity-driven flux, large saturations of hydrate cannot form. The observations of thick zones of large saturation at Mallik and Mt Elbert thus suggest that the primary control on these systems is the rate of transport of gaseous and aqueous phases, driven by the pressure sink at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. A key finding of our project is the elucidation of ?capillary fracturing? as a dominant gas transport mechanism in low-permeability media. We initially investigate this phenomenon by means of grain-scale simulations in which we extended a discrete element mechanics code (PFC, by Itasca) to incorporate the dynamics of first singlephase and then multiphase flow. A reductionist model on a square lattice allows us to determine some of the fundamental dependencies of the mode of gas invasion (capillary fingering, viscous fingering, and fracturing) on the parameters of the system. We then show that the morphology of the gas-invaded region exerts a fundamental control on the fabric of methane hydrate formation, and on the overpressures caused by methane hydrate dissociation. We demonstrate the existence of the different invasion regimes by means of controlled laboratory experiments in a radial cell. We collapse the behavior in the form of a phase diagram fully characterized by two dimensionless groups: a modified capillary number and a ?fracturing number? that reflects the balance between the pressure forces that act to open conduits in the granular pack, and frictional forces that resist it. We use all this small-scale knowledge to propose simple mechanistic models of gas migration and hydrate formation at the geologic bed scale. We propose that methane transport in lake and oceanic sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other methane-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗

Geomechanical Simulation of Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Model Calibration.

A finite element numerical analysis model has been constructed that consists of a realistic mesh capturing the geometries of Bayou Choctaw (BC) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site and multi - mechanism deformation ( M - D ) salt constitutive model using the daily data of actual wellhead pressure and oil - brine interface. The salt creep rate is not uniform in the salt dome, and the creep test data for BC salt is limited. Therefore, the model calibration is necessary to simulate the geomechanical behavior of the salt dome. The cavern volumetric closures of SPR caverns calculated from CAVEMAN are used for the field baseline measurement. The structure factor, A 2 , and transient strain limit factor, K 0 , in the M - D constitutive model are used for the calibration. The A 2 value obtained experimentally from the BC salt and K 0 value of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt are used for the baseline values. T o adjust the magnitude of A 2 and K 0 , multiplication factors A2F and K0F are defined, respectively. The A2F and K0F values of the salt dome and salt drawdown skins surrounding each SPR cavern have been determined through a number of back fitting analyses. The cavern volumetric closures calculated from this model correspond to the predictions from CAVEMAN for six SPR caverns. Therefore, this model is able to predict past and future geomechanical behaviors of the salt dome, caverns, caprock , and interbed layers. The geological concerns issued in the BC site will be explained from this model in a follow - up report .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Local-scale stratigraphy of grooved terrain on Ganymede

The surface of the Jovian satellite, Ganymede, is divided into two main units, dark terrain cut by arcuate and subradial furrows, and light terrain consisting largely of areas with pervasive U-shaped grooves. The grooved terrain may be subdivided on the basis of pervasive morphology of groove domains into four terrain types: (1) elongate bands of parallel grooves (groove lanes); (2) polygonal domains of parallel grooves (grooved polygons); (3) polygonal domains of two orthogonal groove sets (reticulate terrain); and (4) polygons having two to several complexly cross-cutting groove sets (complex grooved terrain). Reticulate terrain is frequently dark and not extensively resurfaced, and grades to a more hummocky terrain type. The other three grooved terrain types have almost universally been resurfaced by light material during their emplacement. The sequence of events during grooved terrain emplacement has been investigated. An attempt is made to integrate observed geologic and tectonic patterns to better constrain the relative ages and styles of emplacement of grooved terrain types. A revised model of grooved terrain emplacement is proposed and is tested using detailed geologic mapping and measurement of crater density.

Murchie, Scott L.↗

Modeling variability in porescale multiphase flow experiments

Microfluidic devices and porescale numerical models are commonly used to study multiphase flow in biological, geological, and engineered porous materials. In this work, we perform a set of drainage and imbibition experiments in six identical microfluidic cells to study the reproducibility of multiphase flow experiments. We observe significant variations in the experimental results, which are smaller during the drainage stage and larger during the imbibition stage. We demonstrate that these variations are due to sub-porescale geometry differences in microcells (because of manufacturing defects) and variations in the boundary condition (i.e.,fluctuations in the injection rate inherent to syringe pumps). Computational simulations are conducted using commercial software STAR-CCM+, both with constant and randomly varying injection rate. Stochastic simulations are able to capture variability in the experiments associated with the varying pump injection rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multidisciplinary research in the space sciences

Research activities were carried out in the following areas during this reporting period: (1) astrophysics; (2) climate and atmospheric modeling; and (3) climate applications of earth observations & geological studies. An ultra-low-noise 115 GHz receiver based upon a superconducting tunnel diode mixer has been designed and constructed. The first laboratory tests have yielded spectacular results: a single-sideband noise temperature of 75 K considerably more sensitive than any other receiver at this frequency. The receiver will replace that currently in use on the Columbia-GISS CO Sky Survey telescope. The 1.2 meter millimeter-wave telescope at Columbia University has been used to complete two large-scale surveys of molecular matter in the part of the inner galaxy which is visible from the Northern hemisphere (the first galactic quadrant); one of the distant galaxy and one of the solar neighborhood. The research conducted during the past year in the climate and atmospheric modeling programs has been focused on the development of appropriate atmospheric and upper ocean models, and preliminary applications of these models. Principal models are a one-dimensional radiative-convective model, a three-dimensional global climate model, and an upper ocean model. During the past year this project has focused on development of 2-channel satellite analysis methods and radiative transfer studies in support of multichannel analysis techniques.

Broecker, W. S.↗

A palaeomagnetic perspective of Precambrian tectonic styles

The considerable success derived from palaeomagnetic studies of Phanerozoic rocks with respect to the tectonic styles of continental drift and plate tectonics, etc., have not been repeated by the many palaeomagnetic studies of Precambrian rocks. There are 30 years of research with results covering the major continents for Precambrian times that overlap considerably yet there is no concensus. There is good evidence that the usual assumptions employed by palaeomagnetism are valid for the Precambrian. The exisence of magnetic reversals during the Precambrian, for instance, is difficult to explain except in terms of a geomagnetic field that was predominantly dipolar in nature. It is a small concession to extend this notion of the Precambrian geomagnetic field to include its alignment with the Earth's spin axis and the other virtues of an axial geocentric dipole that characterize the recent geomagnetic field. In terms of greenstone terranes it is obvious that tectonic models postulated to explain these observations are paramount in understanding Precambrian geology. What relevance the current geographical relationships of continents have with their Precambrian relationships remains a paradox, but it would seem that the ensialic model for the development of greenstone terranes is favored by the Precambrian palaeomagnetic data.

Schmidt, P. W.↗

Physical and Numerical Models of Pore-Scale Trapping of CO2

Numerical simulations of deep geological carbon sequestration are being used to design field-scale implementations, predict their long-term performance, and evaluate associated risks. However, conventional field-scale simulators are unable to explicitly resolve the pore-scale processes that exert significant control on the migration and fate of supercritical CO2 in the subsurface. A combination of physical and numerical experiments with explicit pore-scale resolution are being performed in order to identify conditions under which continuum model approximations may fail, and to propose alternative simulation approaches that can be used in such cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Simulation of M9 Megathrust Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We estimate ground motions in the Pacific Northwest urban areas during M9 subduction scenario earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by simulating wave propagation from an ensemble of kinematic source descriptions. Velocities and densities in our computational mesh are defined by integrating the regional Cascadia Community Velocity Model (CVM) v1.6 (Stephenson et al. P-and S-wave velocity models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone for 3D earthquake ground motion simulations—update for open-file report 2007–1348, US Geological Survey, 2017) including the ocean water layer with a local velocity model of the Georgia basin (Molnar, Predicting earthquake ground shaking due to 1D soil layering and 3D basin structure in SW British Columbia, Canada, 2011), including additional near-surface velocity information. We generate six source realizations, each consisting of a background slip distribution with correlation lengths, rise times and rupture velocities consistent with data from previous megathrust earthquakes (e.g., 2011 M 9 Tohoku or 2010 M 8.8 Maule). We then superimpose M ~ 8 subevents, characterized by short rise times and high stress drops on the background slip model to mimic high-frequency strong ground motion generation areas in the deeper portion of the rupture (Frankel, Bull Seismol Soc Am 107(1):372–386, 2017). The wave propagation is simulated using the discontinuous mesh (DM) version of the AWP finite difference code. We simulate frequencies up to 1.25 Hz, using a spatial discretization of 100 m in the fine grid, resulting in surface grid dimensions of 6540 × 10,728 mesh points. At depths below 8 km, the grid step increases to 300 m. We obtain stable and accurate results for the DM method throughout the simulation time of 7.5 min as verified against a solution obtained with a uniform 100 m grid spacing. Peak ground velocities (PGVs) range between 0.57 and 1.0 m/s in downtown Seattle and between 0.25 and 0.54 m/s in downtown Vancouver, while spectral accelerations at 2 s range between 1.7 and 3.6 m/s 2 and 1.0 and 1.3 m/s 2 , respectively. These long-period ground motions are not significantly reduced if plastic Drucker-Prager yielding in shallow cohesionless sediments is taken into account. Effects of rupture directivity are significant at periods of ~ 10 s, but almost absent at shorter periods. We find that increasing the depth extent of the subducting slab from the truncation at 60 km in the Cascadia CVM version 1.6 to ~ 100 km increases the PGVs by 15% in Seattle and by 40% in Vancouver.

finite difference method↗