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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Operational Benefits of Meeting California's Energy Storage Targets

In October 2013, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) finalized procurement targets and other requirements to its jurisdictional utilities for a minimum of 1,325 MW of 'viable and cost-effective' energy storage systems by 2020. The goal of this study is to explore several aspects of grid operations in California and the Western Interconnection resulting from meeting the CPUC storage targets. We perform this analysis using a set of databases and grid simulation tools developed and implemented by the CPUC, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the California Energy Commission (CEC) for the CPUC's Long-term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The 2014 version of this database contains information about generators, storage, transmission, and electrical demand, for California in the year 2024 for both 33% and 40% renewable energy portfolios. We examine the value of various services provided by energy storage in these scenarios. Sensitivities were performed relating to the services energy storage can provide, the capacity and duration of storage devices, export limitations, and negative price floor variations. Results show that a storage portfolio, as outlined by the CPUC, can reduce curtailment and system-wide production costs for 33% and 40% renewable scenarios. A storage device that can participate in energy and ancillary service markets provides the grid with the greatest benefit; the mandated storage requirement of 1,325 MW was estimated to reduce the total cost of production by about 78 million per year in the 33% scenario and 144 million per year in the 40% scenario. Much of this value is derived from the avoided start and stop costs of thermal generators and provision of ancillary services. A device on the 2024 California grid and participating in only ancillary service markets can provide the system with over 90% of the value as the energy and ancillary service device. The analysis points to the challenge of new storage providing regulation reserve, as the added storage could provide about 75% of the regulation up requirement for all of California, which would likely greatly reduce regulation prices and potential revenue. The addition of storage in California decreases renewable curtailment, particularly in the 40% RPS case. Following previous analysis, storage has a mixed impact on emissions, generally reducing emissions, but also creating additional incentives for increased emissions from out-of-state coal generations. Overall, storage shows significant system cost savings, but analysis also points to additional challenges associated with full valuation of energy storage, including capturing the operational benefits calculated here, but also recovering additional benefits associated avoided generation, transmission, and distribution capacity, and avoided losses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Demand-Side Resources on Electric Transmission Planning

Will demand resources such as energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and distributed generation (DG) have an impact on electricity transmission requirements? Five drivers for transmission expansion are discussed: interconnection, reliability, economics, replacement, and policy. With that background, we review the results of a set of transmission studies that were conducted between 2010 and 2013 by electricity regulators, industry representatives, and other stakeholders in the three physical interconnections within the United States. These broad-based studies were funded by the US Department of Energy and included scenarios of reduced load growth due to EE, DR, and DG. While the studies were independent and used different modeling tools and interconnect-specific assumptions, all provided valuable results and insights. However, some caveats exist. Demand resources were evaluated in conjunction with other factors, and limitations on transmission additions between scenarios made understanding the role of demand resources difficult. One study, the western study, included analyses over both 10- and 20-year planning horizons; the 10-year analysis did not show near-term reductions in transmission, but the 20-year indicated fewer transmission additions, yielding a 36percent capital cost reduction. In the eastern study the reductions in demand largely led to reductions in local generation capacity and an increased opportunity for low-cost and renewable generation to export to other regions. The Texas study evaluated generation changes due to demand, and is in the process of examining demand resource impacts on transmission.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, parametric studies, and selection of system codes. The Cladding and Core Materials and Fuel Concepts task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment Task Force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (INL), while the Cladding Task Force will be chaired by a representative from France (Marie Moatti, Electricite de France [EdF]) and the Fuels Task Force will be chaired by a representative from Japan (Masaki Kurata, Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA]). This report provides an overview of the Systems Assessment Task Force charter and status of work accomplishment.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Development of an Agent-based Model to Analyze Contemporary Helium Markets

Although U.S. helium demand has remained relatively flat since 2009, exports of helium have increased significantly since then, driven primarily by demand for electronic and semiconductor manufacturing in Asia. In the midst of this global demand shift, the Helium Act dictates a new procedure for pricing and distributing the gas through a reserve that historically functioned as a loose “oligarchy.” The new procedure requires prices to be determined by the open market through auctions and a survey of market prices, as opposed to increasing prices according to the consumer price index. Response to these changes has caused temporary shortages, price increases, and a significant increase in the development of the helium extraction technologies used to produce helium from formerly marginal sources. Technologies are being developed and refined to extract helium from formerly low-yielding natural gas fields containing much lower amounts of helium than the previously considered economic threshold of 0.3%. Combining these transformative policies with the potential for new and significant global supplies from Qatar, Algeria, and Russia could lead to new and unforeseen market behaviors and reactions from global helium markets. The objective of the project is to analyze the global helium markets.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

On the Path to SunShot. Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

Net-energy metering (NEM) has helped drive the rapid growth of distributed PV (DPV) but has raised concerns about electricity cost shifts, utility financial losses, and inefficient resource allocation. These concerns have motivated real and proposed reforms to utility regulatory and business models. This report explores the challenges and opportunities associated with such reforms in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Most of the reforms to date address NEM concerns by reducing the benefits provided to DPV customers and thus constraining DPV deployment. Eliminating NEM nationwide, by compensating exports of PV electricity at wholesale rather than retail rates, could cut cumulative DPV deployment by 20% in 2050 compared with a continuation of current policies. This would slow the PV cost reductions that arise from larger scale and market certainty. It could also thwart achievement of the SunShot deployment goals even if the initiative's cost targets are achieved. This undesirable prospect is stimulating the development of alternative reform strategies that address concerns about distributed PV compensation without inordinately harming PV economics and growth. These alternatives fall into the categories of facilitating higher-value DPV deployment, broadening customer access to solar, and aligning utility profits and earnings with DPV. Specific strategies include utility ownership and financing of DPV, community solar, distribution network operators, services-driven utilities, performance-based incentives, enhanced utility system planning, pricing structures that incentivize high-value DPV configurations, and decoupling and other ratemaking reforms that reduce regulatory lag. These approaches represent near- and long-term solutions for preserving the legacy of the SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Winnebago Tribe Solar Project

The strategy of the Solar Project was to reduce fuel use within two years by a roof mounted photovoltaic system. The police/fire building is completely powered by electricity. The renewable energy system we have selected has a power capacity of 23kW and the ability to export 44.3 MWh. We anticipate 32.55% kWh energy savings, an excess of the required 30% reduction, in the building’s total fuel use based on the most current 12 months of data (2012). The solar electric system is a grid-tie, ballast mounted on a flat roof over the police/fire station. The solar electric system includes 280 Watt modules for a nominal total of 22.80 kW. Approximately 84 modules are ballast mounted to the flat roof facing south.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Lower East Fork Poplar Creek Mercury Sources

This report summarizes a 3-year research project undertaken to better understand the nature and magnitude of mercury (Hg) fluxes in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC). This project addresses the requirements of Action Plan 1 in the 2011 Oak Ridge Reservation-wide Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Five Year Review (FYR). The Action Plan is designed to address a twofold 2011 FYR issue: (1) new information suggests mobilization of mercury from the upper and lower EFPC streambeds and stream banks is the primary source of mercury export during high-flow conditions, and (2) the current Record of Decision did not address the entire hydrologic system and creek bank or creek bed sediments. To obtain a more robust watershed-scale understanding of mercury sources and processes in lower EFPC (LEFPC), new field and laboratory studies were coupled with existing data from multiple US Department of Energy programs to develop a dynamic watershed and bioaccumulation model. LEFPC field studies for the project focused primarily on quantification of streambank erosion and an evaluation of mercury dynamics in shallow groundwater adjacent to LEFPC and potential connection to the surface water. The approach to the stream bank study was innovative in using imagery from kayak floats’ surveys from the headwaters to the mouth of EFPC to estimate erosion, coupled with detailed bank soil mercury analyses. The goal of new field assessments and modeling was to generate a more holistic and quantitative understanding of the watershed and the sources, flux, concentration, transformation, and bioaccumulation of inorganic mercury (IHg) and methylmercury (MeHg). Model development used a hybrid approach that dynamically linked a spreadsheet-based physical and chemical watershed model to a systems dynamics, mercury bioaccumulation model for key fish species. The watershed model tracks total Hg and MeHg fluxes and concentrations by examining upstream inputs, floodplain runoff, floodplain leaching, bank soil erosion, and periphyton matrix dynamics. The bioaccumulation model tracks the feeding, growth, and mercury assimilation of representative individual fish through their typical life span using key inputs of fish size, water temperature, and diet. The LEFPC watershed was divided into five modeling reaches, and fluxes and concentrations are assessed at this spatial scale. Following are the key findings of the field and laboratory studies and the watershed and bioaccumulation modeling: • The greatest flux of total mercury (HgT) in LEFPC is related to stormflow transport of Hg-contaminated solids entering the creek because of bank erosion in the upper reaches of the creek. • The second greatest flux originates from upper EFPC (Station 17 representing the exit stream sampling point near the boundary of the Y-12 Complex), and appears to control base flow fluxes. • The observed increase in MeHg concentration and flux from upstream to downstream is related primarily to instream methylation by periphyton and other biological activity. • A meaningful substantial reduction of the HgT flux in LEFPC would require addressing the flux of HgT originating from bank erosion and from Station 17. • Actions to reduce LEFPC floodplain leaching and runoff would not produce much of an impact on HgT or MeHg concentrations or fluxes unless other major sources are eliminated first. This project addresses the Action Plan goal to evaluate the role of LEFPC bank soil sources and to consider the entire EFPC hydrologic system. Model conclusions are dependent on the data available at the time of this assessment. However, a robust understanding and quantification for some mercury-related parameters and relationships is still lacking; there is a continued need for field data collection and modeling improvements. Model predictions should be viewed cautiously, with comparisons of the magnitude of predictions between scenarios being more valid than absolute predictions of concentrations or fluxes. With continued updates and refinement, the watershed-scale model can be a useful, valuable tool for future EFPC research prioritization, technology development, and remedial decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilization of UV Curing Technology to Significantly Reduce the Manufacturing Cost of LIB Electrodes

Previously identified novel binders and associated UV curing technology have been shown to reduce the time required to apply and finish electrode coatings from tens of minutes to less than one second. This revolutionary approach can result in dramatic increases in process speeds, significantly reduced capital (a factor of 10 to 20) and operating costs, reduced energy requirements, and reduced environmental concerns and costs due to the virtual elimination of harmful volatile organic solvents and associated solvent dryers and recovery systems. The accumulated advantages of higher speed, lower capital and operating costs, reduced footprint, lack of VOC recovery, and reduced energy cost is a reduction of 90% in the manufacturing cost of cathodes. When commercialized, the resulting cost reduction in Lithium batteries will allow storage device manufacturers to expand their sales in the market and thereby accrue the energy savings of broader utilization of HEVs, PHEVs and EVs in the U.S., and a broad technology export market is also envisioned.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE-INES New Planet Bioenergy Technical Report Final Public Version 7-22-16

INEOS Bio and New Planet Energy Florida formed a joint venture company called INEOS New Planet BioEnergy (“INPB”) in 2009. This venture’s intent was to demonstrate at commercial scale INEOS Bio’s third-generation technology (the “Bio Process”) that converts a variety of lignocellulosic feedstocks into bioethanol and renewable electricity. INPB applied for and was awarded a $50,000,000 Department of Energy (“DOE”) grant in 2009 to support the construction of the commercial demonstration plant. The grant was a cost-sharing arrangement requiring at least 50% equity participation by the grantee. INPB completed construction of the Indian River BioEnergy Center in Vero Beach, Florida in June, 2012. The facility is designed to produce 8 million gallons per year of fuel-grade bioethanol and 6MW of electrical power, with upwards of 2MW exported to the electrical grid. Construction of the Indian River BioEnergy Center was completed on-time and within its capital budget of $121 million.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models that considered effects of oil price changes, but did not account for effects of oil price levels. Gasoline prices were rarely examined. The tests conducted in this report evaluate gasoline instead of oil.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

MAMA User Guide v2.0.1

Morphological signatures of bulk SNM materials have significant promise, but these potential signatures are not fully utilized. This document describes software tools, collectively called the MAMA (Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution) software that can help provide robust and accurate quantification of morphological features in bulk material microscopy images (Optical, SEM). Although many of the specific tools are not unique to Mama, the software package has been designed specifically for nuclear material morphological analysis, and is at a point where it can be easily adapted (by Los Alamos or by collaborators) in response to new, different, or changing forensics needs. The current release of the MAMA software only includes the image quantification, descriptions, and annotation functionality. Only limited information on a sample, its pedigree, and its chemistry are recorded inside this part of the software. This was decision based on initial feedback and the fact that there are several analytical chemistry databases being developed within the community. Currently MAMA is a standalone program that can export quantification results in a basic text format that can be imported into other programs such as Excel and Access. There is also a basic report generating feature that produces HTML formatted pages of the same information. We will be working with collaborators to provide better integration of MAMA into their particular systems, databases and workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Flexible and Scalable Data Fusion using Proactive Schemaless Information Services

Exascale data environments are fast approaching, driven by diverse structured and unstructured data such as system and application telemetry streams, open-source information capture, and on-demand simulation output. Storage costs having plummeted, the question is now one of converting vast stores of data to actionable information. Complicating this problem are the low degrees of awareness across domain boundaries about what potentially useful data may exist, and write-once- read-never issues (data generation/collection rates outpacing data analysis and integration rates). Increasingly, technologists and researchers need to correlate previously unrelated data sources and artifacts to produce fused data views for domain-specific purposes. New tools and approaches for creating such views from vast amounts of data are vitally important to maintaining research and operational momentum. We propose to research and develop tools and services to assist in the creation, refinement, discovery and reuse of fused data views over large, diverse collections of heterogeneously structured data. We innovate in the following ways. First, we enable and encourage end-users to introduce customized index methods selected for local benefit rather than for global interaction (flexible multi-indexing). We envision rich combinations of such views on application data: views that span backing stores with different semantics, that introduce analytic methods of indexing, and that define multiple views on individual data items. We specifically decline to build a big fused database of everything providing a centralized index over all data, or to export a rigid schema to all comers as in federated query approaches. Second, we proactively advertise these application-specific views so that they may be programmatically reused and extended (data proactivity). Through this mechanism, both changes in state (new data in existing view collected) and changes in structure (new or derived view exists) are made known. Lastly, we embrace found data heterogeneity by coupling multi-indexing to backing stores with appropriate semantics (as opposed to a single store or schema).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Flexible and Scalable Data Fusion using Proactive, Schemaless Information Services

Exascale data environments are fast approaching, driven by diverse structured and unstructured data such as system and application telemetry streams, open-source information capture, and on-demand simulation output. Storage costs having plummeted, the question is now one of converting vast stores of data to actionable information. Complicating this problem are the low degrees of awareness across domain boundaries about what potentially useful data may exist, and write-once-read- never issues (data generation/collection rates outpacing data analysis and integration rates). Increasingly, technologists and researchers need to correlate previously unrelated data sources and artifacts to produce fused data views for domain-specific purposes. New tools and approaches for creating such views from vast amounts of data are vitally important to maintaining research and operational momentum. We propose to research and develop tools and services to assist in the creation, refinement, discovery and reuse of fused data views over large, diverse collections of heterogeneously structured data. We innovate in the following ways. First, we enable and encourage end-users to introduce customized index methods selected for local benefit rather than for global interaction (flexible multi-indexing). We envision rich combinations of such views on application data: views that span backing stores with different semantics, that introduce analytic methods of indexing, and that define multiple views on individual data items. We specifically decline to build a big fused database of everything providing a centralized index over all data, or to export a rigid schema to all comers as in federated query approaches. Second, we proactively advertise these application-specific views so that they may be programmatically reused and extended (data proactivity). Through this mechanism, both changes in state (new data in existing view collected) and changes in structure (new or derived view exists) are made known. Lastly, we embrace found data heterogeneity by coupling multi-indexing to backing stores with appropriate semantics (as opposed to a single store or schema).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

The Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) Model Version 9

The Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model dispatches power plants in a region to meet the electricity demands for any single given year up to 2030. It uses publicly available sources of data describing electric power units such as the National Energy Modeling System and hourly demands from utility submittals to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that are projected to a future year. The model simulates a single region of the country for a given year, matching generation to demands and predefined net exports from the region, assuming no transmission constraints within the region. ORCED can calculate a number of key financial and operating parameters for generating units and regional market outputs including average and marginal prices, air emissions, and generation adequacy. By running the model with and without changes such as generation plants, fuel prices, emission costs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, distributed generation, or demand response, the marginal impact of these changes can be found.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regional Feedstock Partnership Summary Report: Enabling the Billion-Ton Vision

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Sun Grant Initiative established the Regional Feedstock Partnership (referred to as the Partnership) to address information gaps associated with enabling the vision of a sustainable, reliable, billion-ton U.S. bioenergy industry by the year 2030 (i.e., the Billion-Ton Vision). Over the past 7 years (2008–2014), the Partnership has been successful at advancing the biomass feedstock production industry in the United States, with notable accomplishments. The Billion-Ton Study identifies the technical potential to expand domestic biomass production to offset up to 30% of U.S. petroleum consumption, while continuing to meet demands for food, feed, fiber, and export. This study verifies for the biofuels and chemical industries that a real and substantial resource base could justify the significant investment needed to develop robust conversion technologies and commercial-scale facilities. DOE and the Sun Grant Initiative established the Partnership to demonstrate and validate the underlying assumptions underpinning the Billion-Ton Vision to supply a sustainable and reliable source of lignocellulosic feedstock to a large-scale bioenergy industry. This report discusses the accomplishments of the Partnership, with references to accompanying scientific publications. These accomplishments include advances in sustainable feedstock production, feedstock yield, yield stability and stand persistence, energy crop commercialization readiness, information transfer, assessment of the economic impacts of achieving the Billion-Ton Vision, and the impact of feedstock species and environment conditions on feedstock quality characteristics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Technical Feasibility Study for Zero Energy K-12 Schools

This technical feasibility study provides documentation and research results supporting a possible set of strategies to achieve source zero energy K-12 school buildings as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) zero energy building (ZEB) definition (DOE 2015a). Under this definition, a ZEB is an energy-efficient building in which, on a source energy basis, the actual annual delivered energy is less than or equal to the on-site renewable exported energy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Impacts of Changes to Nevada's Net Metering Policy on the Financial Performance and Adoption of Distributed Photovoltaics

As the adoption of distributed photovoltaics (DPV) has continued to rapidly increase, a national conversation has begun about the efficacy of full-retail net metering as a means of achieving the diverse objectives of electricity pricing. This conversation has prompted studies that have primarily focused on the total costs and benefits of DPV. To compliment those studies, we here characterize the potential impacts of tariff design on the customer-economics and adoption of DPV, where recent changes in Nevada are taken as a case study. We show that an increase in fixed charges more strongly impacts the payback period of small systems, and a decrease in credit for exported electricity more strongly impacts the payback period of large systems. We project that these combined changes will reduce DPV adoption in Nevada; total capacity in 2030 was projected to reach up to 363 MW, with 226 MW having already been installed at the end of the second quarter of 2016. In contrast, if full retail net metering had continued, DPV capacity was projected to reach up to 1,280 MW at the end of 2030, which would account for an estimated 6.5% of the total sales of electricity by NV Energy at that time. We project that the DPV systems will decrease the gross revenue from bill collection by $48 million per year under the new tariffs, whereas the decrease in gross revenue could have reached $255 million per year if full retail net metering had been continued. Although these results are given in the context of Nevada, the trends shown are intended to help information similar upcoming decisions in other states.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗