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DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive Basis-Set Testing of Extended Symmetry-Adapted Perturbation Theory and Assessment of Mixed-Basis Combinations to Reduce Cost

Hybrid or “extended” symmetry-adapted perturbation theory (XSAPT) replaces traditional SAPT’s treatment of dispersion with better performing alternatives while at the same time extending two-body (dimer) SAPT to a many-body treatment of polarization using a self-consistent charge embedding procedure. The present work presents a systematic study of how XSAPT interaction energies and energy components converge with respect to the choice of Gaussian basis set. Errors can be reduced in a systematic way using correlation-consistent basis sets, with aug-cc-pVTZ results converged within <0.1 kcal/mol. Similar (if slightly less systematic) behavior is obtained using Karlsruhe basis sets at much lower cost, and we introduce new versions with limited augmentation that are even more efficient. Pople-style basis sets, which are more efficient still, often afford good results if a large number of polarization functions are included. The dispersion models used in XSAPT afford much faster basis-set convergence as compared to the perturbative description of dispersion in conventional SAPT, meaning that “compromise” basis sets (such as jun-cc-pVDZ) are no longer required and benchmark-quality results can be obtained using triple-ζ basis sets. The use of diffuse functions proves to be essential, especially for the description of hydrogen bonds. As a result, the “δ(Hartree–Fock)” correction for high-order induction can be performed in double-ζ basis sets without significant loss of accuracy, leading to a mixed-basis approach that offers 4× speedup over the existing (cubic scaling) XSAPT approach.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Concordant Mode Approach (CMA): Vibrational Analysis of New and Upgraded Intermolecular Benchmarks for Noncovalent Bonding

The Concordant Mode Approach (CMA) is a novel method that offers tremendous potential for increasing the system size and the level of theory attainable in quantum chemical computations of molecular vibrational frequencies. To investigate the extension of CMA to intermolecular vibrations, computations with coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples theory [CCSD(T)] using two augmented correlation-consistent polarized-valence triple-ζ basis sets (aug-cc-pVTZ or h-aug-ccpVTZ) were performed on 17 prototypical loosely bound complexes of hydrogen-bonded, dispersion, and mixed character. These Level A results provide new and upgraded benchmarks for noncovalent bonding and a severe test for CMA vibrational analyses. The Level A target frequencies were recovered remarkably well using second-order Møller−Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) with h-aug-cc-pVTZ for generating the underlying (Level B) normal modes of the CMA scheme. Employing this Level B within the lowest-rung CMA-0A method reproduces the 435 benchmark frequencies with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.23 cm −1 and a corresponding standard deviation (σ) of 0.84 cm −1 ; strikingly, the corresponding subset of 106 interfragment frequencies exhibits MAE = 0.34 cm −1 and σ = 0.90 cm −1 . Subsequent application of the higher-rung CMA-2A scheme eliminates all outliers and reduces the overall MAE to a minuscule 0.08 cm −1 with the inclusion of only 3.0% of the off-diagonal couplings not accounted for by CMA-0A. Accordingly, the highly efficient CMA methodology proves to be robust even for vibrations on flat potential energy surfaces.

Aromatic compounds↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of energy density functionals with deformed nuclei

Nuclear density functional theory is the prevalent theoretical framework for accurately describing nuclear properties at the scale of the entire chart of nuclides. Given an energy functional and a many-body scheme (e.g., single- or multireference level), the predictive power of the theory depends strongly on how the parameters of the energy functionals have been calibrated with experimental data. Expanded algorithms and computing power have enabled recent optimization protocols to include data in deformed nuclei in order to optimize the coupling constants of the energy functional. The primary motivation of this work is to test the robustness of such protocols with respect to some of the technical and numerical details of the underlying calculations, especially when the calibration explores a large parameter space. To this end, we quantify the effect of these uncertainties on both the optimization and statistical emulation of composite objective functions. We also emphasize that Bayesian calibration can provide better estimates of the theoretical errors used to define objective functions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Challenges of Troubleshooting

Troubleshooting work presents electrical and other workers with a challenging combination of physical hazards, working conditions, and time pressure, which can lead to unwanted outcomes if not carefully managed.Summaries of several incidents in which workers were injured or at risk of injury while performing troubleshooting work are presented, identifying organizational weaknesses and error precursors that contributed to each incident.The primary challenges include:Deranged equipment. Equipment that needs troubleshooting is not in a normal operating condition. Actions that are safe when the equipment is in a normal state may not be safe in the deranged state.Work planning and control. The steps taken in troubleshooting are most often determined by the results of the immediately previous diagnostic test, making effective work planning challenging.Multiple types of hazards. Most equipment will present a troubleshooting worker with several types of hazards, including hazardous energy as defined in 29 CFR 1910.147. Portions of the troubleshooting activity may be infeasible without these hazards present.Time pressure. Restoring operation of failed equipment often involves an explicit or implicit sense of urgency.Equipment design and construction. The physical construction of the equipment in large part will determine to which hazards troubleshooters may be exposed. It will also determine which hazards may be encountered while performing the servicing needed to restore the equipment or system to operation.There are effective methods for addressing each challenge, most of which require a combination of advance preparation and management commitment.

Mertz, David E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Angle Assessment for Upper Limb Rehabilitation: A Novel Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-Based Approach

The accurate measurement of joint angles during patient rehabilitation is crucial for informed decision making by physiotherapists. Presently, visual inspection stands as one of the prevalent methods for angle assessment. Although it could appear the most straightforward way to assess the angles, it presents a problem related to the high susceptibility to error in the angle estimation. In light of this, this study investigates the possibility of using a new approach to angle calculation: a hybrid approach leveraging both a camera and LiDAR technology, merging image data with point cloud information. This method employs AI-driven techniques to identify the individual and their joints, utilizing the cloud-point data for angle computation. The tests, considering different exercises with different perspectives and distances, showed a slight improvement compared to using YOLO v7 for angle calculation. However, the improvement comes with higher system costs when compared with other image-based approaches due to the necessity of equipment such as LiDAR and a loss of fluidity during the exercise performance. Therefore, the cost–benefit of the proposed approach could be questionable. Nonetheless, the results hint at a promising field for further exploration and the potential viability of using the proposed methodology.

Klein, Luan C. (ORCID:000000016306574X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power capture and power take-off load of a self-balanced dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter

Wave energy converters are an important part of future renewable energy infrastructure. Predicting their power matrix, capture width ratio, and power take-off loads at a targeted site is required for performance assessment before deployment. Because their testing is very expensive, numerical modeling and simulations play a significant role in those assessments. Linear potential flow theory has limited accuracy under large amplitude wave forcing. More accurate predictions can be obtained by using higher-fidelity models, which are computationally expensive. We present a framework for multi-fidelity numerical simulations to determine the hydrodynamic response, wave capture capability, and power take-off load of a full-scale dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter. This design exploits out-of-phase motion by setting the distance between the flaps to half the wavelength of the most occurring wave. The simulations are validated using a 1:10 model experiments in a wave tank. Based on these validations, it was determined that Euler simulations provide an acceptable prediction with 90% reduction in computational time with only 11% error. Utilizing Euler simulations at full-scale, the results demonstrate that the annual electrical energy output is 1.79 GWh under regular wave conditions. Here, one significant improvement over single-flap designs is the capture width ratio which exceeds unity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Perturbation theory models for LSST-era galaxy clustering: Tests with subpercent mock catalog measurements in Fourier and configuration space

Here, we analyze the clustering of galaxies using the z = 1.006 snapshot of the CosmoDC2 simulation, a high-fidelity synthetic galaxy catalog designed to validate analysis methods for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present sub-percent measurements of the galaxy auto-correlation and galaxy-dark matter cross correlations in Fourier space and configuration space for a magnitude-limited galaxy sample. At these levels of precision, the statistical errors of the measurement are comparable to the systematic effects present in the simulation and measurement procedure; nevertheless, using a hybrid-PT model, we are able to model non-linear galaxy bias with 0.5% precision up to scales of k max = 0.5 h/Mpc and r min = 4 Mpc/h. While the linear bias parameter is measured with 0.01% precision, other bias parameters are determined with considerably weaker constraints and sometimes bimodal posterior distributions. We compare our fiducial model with lower dimensional models where the higher-order bias parameters are fixed at their co-evolution values and find that leaving these parameters free provides significant improvements in our ability to model small scale information. We also compare bias parameters for galaxy samples defined using different magnitude bands and find agreement between samples containing equal numbers of galaxies. Finally, we compare bias parameters between Fourier space and configuration space and find moderate to significant tension between the two approaches. Although our model is often unable to fit the CosmoDC2 galaxy samples within the 0.1% precision of our measurements, our results suggest that the hybrid-PT model used in this analysis is capable of modeling non-linear galaxy bias within the percent level precision needed for upcoming galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of the energetic particle redistribution by an improved critical gradient model and analysis of the transport threshold

Based on the theory of critical gradient model (CGM) and following the simulation method proposed by Waltz et al., a combination of TGLFEP and EPtran code is employed to predict the energetic particle (EP) transport induced by Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). To be consistent with the experiment, recent improvements to the simulation method include consideration of threshold evolution and orbit loss due to finite orbit width. The revised CGM is applied to simulate two DIII-D experimental discharges (#142111 and #153071). It well reproduces the experimental profiles with multiple unstable AEs and large-scale EP transport. Discharge #142111 had previously been simulated using a nonlinear MHD-kinetic code MEGA with a transport mechanism based on stochasticity induced by overlapping AE. By comparing the simulated EP profiles, we find that the AE transport threshold is approximated by both the MEGA nonlinear stability threshold and the proposed CGM threshold (error <5% for single n and <17% for multiple n simulation). Both of them are larger than the linear stability threshold of the most unstable AE mode by a quantity of the order of the flux needed to sustain EP transport by the background turbulence. Additionally, we have also applied the improved CGM to simulate the α particle redistribution for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor steady state scenario. Because of the clear separation between the AE unstable region and the loss cone, only a moderate α particle loss of ~9.6% is predicted.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly detection for MPC forecast in Fleet of Water Heaters

Among residential devices, water heaters consume 20% of home energy use in the United States. Water heaters possess the capability to store energy within their reservoirs, enabling the ability to decouple energy use from hot water use. This capability can be used to reduce energy usage and costs while also supporting grid services. This requires accurate forecasting of the parameters of the water heater such as upper and lower temperatures. In this study, we analyzed the performance and behavior of a water heater model used in the real-world to predict a control mechanism that is implemented in a smart residential neighborhood. The model forecasts are accurate in most cases but not all. In such scenarios, error correction of the model is necessary to further improve model predictive control accuracy. Anomaly detection is the first step of error correction. This study complements existing research by grouping time series data into two clusters one with anomalies and another without anomalies. To achieve this task, we explored and compared multiple unsupervised machine learning algorithms to perform clustering. Among these algorithms, Ward clustering has the lowest running time and identified the highest number of anomalies for the upper temperature limit. The proposed approach is tested based on the data collected in a neighborhood with 46 townhomes located in Atlanta, GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote Sensing-Based Estimation of Advanced Perennial Grass Biomass Yields for Bioenergy

A sustainable bioeconomy would require growing high-yielding bioenergy crops on marginal agricultural areas with minimal inputs. To determine the cost competitiveness and environmental sustainability of such production systems, reliably estimating biomass yield is critical. However, because marginal areas are often small and spread across the landscape, yield estimation using traditional approaches is costly and time-consuming. This paper demonstrates the (1) initial investigation of optical remote sensing for predicting perennial bioenergy grass yields at harvest using a linear regression model with the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and (2) evaluation of the model’s performance using data from five U.S. Midwest field sites. The linear regression model using midsummer GNDVI predicted yields at harvest with R2 as high as 0.879 and a mean absolute error and root mean squared error as low as 0.539 Mg/ha and 0.616 Mg/ha, respectively, except for the establishment year. Perennial bioenergy grass yields may be predicted 152 days before the harvest date on average, except for the establishment year. The green spectral band showed a greater contribution for predicting yields than the red band, which is indicative of increased chlorophyll content during the early growing season. Although additional testing is warranted, this study showed a great promise for a remote sensing approach for forecasting perennial bioenergy grass yields to support critical economic and logistical decisions of bioeconomy stakeholders.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction of Charged Particle Tracks in Realistic Detector Geometry Using a Vectorized and Parallelized Kalman Filter Algorithm

One of the most computationally challenging problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is finding and fitting particle tracks during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material e ects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filterbased methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD and SIMT architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. Previously we observed significant parallel speedups, with physics performance comparable to CMS standard tracking, on Intel Xeon, Intel Xeon Phi, and (to a limited extent) NVIDIA GPUs. While early tests were based on artificial events occurring inside an idealized barrel detector, we showed subsequently that our mkFit software builds tracks successfully from complex simulated events (including detector pileup) occurring inside a geometrically accurate representation of the CMS-2017 tracker. Here, we report on advances in both the computational and physics performance of mkFit, as well as progress toward integration with CMS production software. Recently we have improved the overall eciency of the algorithm by preserving short track candidates at a relatively early stage rather than attempting to extend them over many layers. Moreover, mkFit formerly produced an excess of duplicate tracks; these are now explicitly removed in an additional processing step. We demonstrate that with these enhancements, mkFit becomes a suitable choice for the first iteration of CMS tracking, and eventually for later iterations as well. We plan to test this capability in the CMS High Level Trigger during Run 3 of the LHC, with an ultimate goal of using it in both the CMS HLT and oine reconstruction for the HL-LHC CMS tracker.

Cerati, Giuseppe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kβ X-ray Emission Spectra Analysis Using Bayesian Optimization

The Kβ X-ray emission spectrum of 3 d transition metals is rich with electronic and structural information due to strong exchange interactions with the valence shell of the metal, and has become crucial for understanding their spin and oxidation states. The spectrum is commonly treated using crystal-field multiplet theory, a semi-empirical theory that uses tunable parameters to control the strength of the effects present in X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). However, determining the experimental values of these parameters remains a challenge. We present a methodology that applies Bayesian optimization to crystal-field multiplet theory to determine parameter values. The algorithm is tested on the X-ray emission spectra of a collection of Mn, Co, and Ni oxides. We are able to find optimal values for the four most impactful parameters: Slater−Condon reduction factors F dd , F pd , and G pd , and crystal field splitting 10 Dq . The algorithm produces significantly improved accuracy compared to current analysis methods, and probes interparameter dependencies by modeling the error landscape. This advancement enhances XES analysis by offering an approach of obtaining quantitative electronic structural information on 3 d transition metal valence shells, facilitating applications across various scientific fields.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient Storage Model Parameter Optimization Using the Simulated Annealing Method

Hyporheic exchange in streams is critical to ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling along river corridors, especially for slowly moving or small stream systems. The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used for modeling of hyporheic exchange. TSM calibration, for hyporheic exchange, is typically used to estimate four parameters, including the mass exchange rate coefficient, the dispersion coefficient, stream cross-sectional area, and hyporheic zone cross-sectional area. Prior studies have raised concerns regarding the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem for the TSM, that is, the occurrence of different parameter vectors resulting in TSM solution that reproduces the observed in-stream tracer break through curve (BTC) with the same error. This leads to practical non-identifiability in determining the unknown parameter vector values even when global-optimal values exist, and the parameter optimization becomes practically non-unique. To address this problem, we applied the simulated annealing method to calibrate the TSM to BTCs, because it is less susceptible to local minima-induced non-identifiability. A hypothetical (or synthetic) tracer test data set with known parameters was developed to demonstrate the capability of the simulated annealing method to find the global minimum parameter vector, and it identified the “hypothetically-true” global minimum parameter vector even with input data that were modified with up to 10% noise without increasing the number of iterations required for convergence. The simulated annealing TSM was then calibrated using two in-stream tracer tests conducted in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. In conclusion, simulated annealing was determined to be appropriate for quantifying the TSM parameter vector because of its search capability for the global minimum parameter vector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comment on the paper “Physical characterization of Bis(2,2-dinitropropyl) acetal and Bis(2,2-dinitropropyl) formal” by Alexander Edgar, Justine Yang, Manuel Chavez, Michelle Yang & Dali Yang

Errors are noted in the construction of the binary phase diagram in the paper “Physical characterization of Bis(2,2-dinitropropyl) acetal and Bis(2,2-dinitropropyl) formal” by Alexander Edgar, Justine Yang, Manuel Chavez, Michelle Yang & Dali Yang. The authors of that paper misinterpret differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) thermal features. All of the DSC data show features consistent with samples that are supercooled during testing. Such samples do not show solidus points and may not show liquidus points, rendering the constructed phase diagram invalid.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗