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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical tests for closure of plate motion circuits

Two methods, one based on a chi-square test and the second on an F-ratio test, of testing for the plate motion circuit closures are described and evaluated. The chi-square test is used to evaluate goodness of fit, and it is assumed that the assigned errors are accurate estimates of the true errors in the data. The F-ratio test is used to compare variances of distributions, and it is assumed that the relative values of assigned error are accurate. The two methods are applied to the data of Minster and Jordan (1978) on the motion of the three plates that meet at the Galapagos Triple Junction, and the motion of the three plates that meet at the Indian Ocean Triple Junction. It is noted that the F-ratio plate circuit closure test is more useful than the chi-square test for identifying systematic misfits in data because the chi-square test overestimates the errors of plate motion data.

Gordon, Richard G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Adaptive methods in computational fluid dynamics

A review is conducted of the basic components of adaptive methods applicable to very complex problems in fluid dynamics. Attention is given to ways of changing the structure of an approximation to reduce error, techniques for estimating the evolution of error in a CFD calculation, and the range of algorithms that are currently available for mesh-changing functions. Available numerical results which demonstrate the viability of these approaches are discussed.

Oden, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Nonlinear Observers for Gyro Calibration Coupled with a Nonlinear Control Algorithm

Nonlinear observers for gyro calibration are presented. The first observer estimates a constant gyro bias. The second observer estimates scale factor errors. The third observer estimates the gyro alignment for three orthogonal gyros. The observers are then combined. The convergence properties of all three observers, and the combined observers, are discussed. Additionally, all three observers are coupled with a nonlinear control algorithm. The stability of each of the resulting closed loop systems is analyzed. Simulated test results are presented for each system.

Thienel, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2003

Nonlinear Observers for Gyro Calibration

Nonlinear observers for gyro calibration are presented. The first observer estimates a constant gyro bias. The second observer estimates scale factor errors. The third observer estimates the gyro alignment for three orthogonal gyros. The convergence properties of all three observers are discussed. Additionally, all three observers are coupled with a nonlinear control algorithm. The stability of each of the resulting closed loop systems is analyzed. Simulated test results are presented for each system.

Thienel, Julie↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Is There A Relationship Between Cornered-Hat Methods and A Residual Approach to Estimate System Uncertainty?

Recently a relationship has been established between a now traditional residual diagnostic used to estimate observation, background and analysis error covariances of interest to data assimilation and the three-cornered hat (3CH) method. An existing extension of the traditional residual diagnostic uses residuals from a fixed lag-1 Kalman smoother to retrieve system (model) error covariance. It is thus natural to ask if an additional relationship can be established between this extended residual method and some form of cornered--hat method. The answer might seem straightforward. Unlike in the standard residual estimation case, attempting to estimate model error amounts to estimating the statistics of a residual quantity itself. As shown in this presentation, in such cases the 3CH method becomes trivial: the sought out uncertainty can be derived directly from the covariance of the residual quantity at hand. In the particular case of estimating model error, one of the corners would have to be composed of vectors providing estimates of model error; these are not typically available in practice. Therefore, at first glance the present work finds no relationship between the lag-1 smoother residual diagnostic for system error estimation and cornered--hat methods. However, the work suggests that a two-tiered 3CH might be all that is necessary for system uncertainty to be obtained with 3CH.

Ricardo Todling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a more realistic representation of NASA CERES-derived surface radiative fluxes during polar night: a comparison with the MOSAiC field campaign

The Arctic is one of the most sensitive regions of Earth to climate change, and yet remains one of the more difficult regions to both observe and simulate. The high latitude of the Arctic gives it some unusual features compared with much of Earth, such as large and variable sea ice cover, extensive mixed phase cloud cover, and the polar day/night cycle. These features significantly influence the radiative environment of the Arctic as well as the ability to observe it. The remoteness of the Arctic from most of civilization makes large volumes of in situ observations difficult to collect, and so satellite observations are a critical tool for observing the region, such as those from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). But validating the satellite radiative flux estimates is difficult because of the lack of in situ measurements. A useful remedy is utilizing measurements from field campaigns, such as the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition during 2019-2020. The extensive high-quality surface radiative flux and meteorological measurements collected from MOSAiC provide a useful check on flux retrievals from CERES instruments. Previous work compared MOSAiC and CERES surface radiative fluxes during the 2020 melt season (April-September). Errors in CERES fluxes were related to errors in estimated atmospheric optical depth and surface albedo. We conduct a similar assessment of CERES surface flux retrievals using MOSAiC data, but for the months of October through March instead. As this time period is mostly during polar night and twilight, the focus of the study is on longwave surface fluxes. To better understand the reasons for errors in CERES fluxes, we use the large set of meteorological measurements also collected by MOSAiC, including surface temperature, thermodynamic vertical profiles, surface turbulent fluxes, and cloud properties. For example, one notable possible source of error in the CERES estimate of surface downwelling longwave flux is the estimate of cloud base height when compared with MOSAiC W-band radar measurements – an overestimate of cloud base height yields an underestimate of the downwelling flux on the order of tens of W m2.

J. Brant Dodson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the inter-species power balance in JET plasmas

Most auxiliary heating methods provide heating to more than one particle species (electrons, ions, impurities) in a fusion plasma. This can lead to substantial temperature differences between species, depending on conditions such as heating power to the different species and collisionality, with temperature differences between species limited by inter-species thermal equipartition and transport. The analysis of the steady-state electron-ion and impurity-ion power balances presented in this paper are used for consistency-checking experimental ion and electron temperature measurements and for inferring the main ion temperature from measured impurity temperatures. As ion temperature measurements by charge exchange spectroscopy (CXS) based on impurity ions have become more difficult and time-consuming since the installation of the ITER-like wall (ILW) with Be and W PFC's, knowing the maximum sustainable temperature difference between ions and electrons, |T i -T e | allows rejecting erroneous measurements. It also obviates the need for an ion temperature measurement, if an electron temperature measurement is available and |T i - T e | cannot be larger than the combined errors of the underlying measurements. A power balance analysis is also required for estimating the errors of the ion and electron heat fluxes prior to any species-resolved transport analysis. The ion-impurity temperature differences are usually found to be small due to strong thermal equipartition between ion species. However, they can approach 10% in JET-ILW low density, high power discharges, such the ones under development for a future JET deuterium–tritium campaign (Joffrin et al 2019 Nucl. Fusion). This has a generally small, but not always negligible effect on the calculation of fusion reaction rates, which depend on main ion temperatures. An important outcome of this analysis is that temperature differences between impurity species are always much smaller than between the impurities and hydrogenic species and can usually be neglected. The article presents two methods for calculating the impurity-to-main ion temperature ratio. Finally, this analysis leads to a method for the reconstruction ion temperature profiles from ion temperature data available at only one or a small number of spatial locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fusion techniques using distributed Kalman filtering for detecting changes in systems

A comparison is made of the performances of two detection strategies that are based on different data fusion techniques. The strategies detect changes in a linear system. One detection strategy involves combining the estimates and error covariance matrices of distributed Kalman filters, generating a residual from the used estimates, comparing this residual to a threshold, and making a decision. The other detection strategy involves a distributed decision process in which estimates from distributed Kalman filters are used to generate distributed residuals which are compared locally to a threshold. Local decisions are made and these decisions are then fused into a global decision. The performances of each of these detection schemes are compared, and it is concluded that better performance is achieved when local decisions are made and then fused into a global decision.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detection of the Pairwise Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect with BOSS DR11 and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

We present a new measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Using 600 square degrees of overlapping sky area, we evaluate the mean pairwise baryon momentum associated with the positions of 50,000 bright galaxies in the BOSS DR11 Large Scale Structure catalog. A non-zero signal arises from the large-scale motions of halos containing the sample galaxies. The data fits an analytical signal model well, with the optical depth to microwave photon scattering as a free parameter determining the overall signal amplitude. We estimate the covariance matrix of the mean pairwise momentum as a function of galaxy separation, using microwave sky simulations, jackknife evaluation, and bootstrap estimates. The most conservative simulation-based errors give signal-to-noise estimates between 3.6 and 4.1 for varying galaxy luminosity cuts. We discuss how the other error determinations can lead to higher signal-to-noise values, and consider the impact of several possible systematic errors. Estimates of the optical depth from the average thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal at the sample galaxy positions are broadly consistent with those obtained from the mean pairwise momentum signal.

De Bernardis, F.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Applications of parameter estimation in the study of spinning airplanes

Spinning airplanes offer challenges to estimating dynamic parameters because of the nonlinear nature of the dynamics. In this paper, parameter estimation techniques are applied to spin flight test data for estimating the error in measuring post-stall angles of attack, deriving Euler angles from angular velocity data, and estimating nonlinear aerodynamic characteristics. The value of the scale factor for post-stall angles of attack agrees closely with that obtained from special wind-tunnel tests. The independently derived Euler angles are seen to be valid in spite of steep pitch angles. Estimates of flight derived nonlinear aerodynamic parameters are evaluated in terms of the expected fit error.

W Taylor, L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

Stoddard, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Stability and Control Estimation Flight Test Results for the SR-71 Aircraft With Externally Mounted Experiments

A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique is used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center SR-71A airplane and for configurations that include experiments externally mounted to the top of the fuselage. This research is being done as part of the envelope clearance for the new experiment configurations. Flight data are obtained at speeds ranging from Mach 0.4 to Mach 3.0, with an extensive amount of test points at approximately Mach 1.0. Pilot-input pitch and yaw-roll doublets are used to obtain the data. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, and compares the derivatives for the three configurations tested. The experimental configurations studied generally show acceptable stability, control, trim, and handling qualities throughout the Mach regimes tested. The reduction of directional stability for the experimental configurations is the most significant aerodynamic effect measured and identified as a design constraint for future experimental configurations. This report also shows the significant effects of aircraft flexibility on the stability and control derivatives.

Moes, Timothy R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests have been designed to estimate the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution that was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method uses both independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a coefficient-by-coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors have been further analyzed using a method based on eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis, which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite data sets and independent altimetric, resonant satellite, and surface gravity data sets all confirm essentially the same error assessment. The calibration test results yield very stable calibration factors, which vary only by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests performed. Based on these calibrated error estimates, GEM-T1 is a significantly improved solution, which to degree and order 8 is twice as accurate as earlier satellite derived models like GEM-L2. Also, by being complete to degree and order 36, GEM-T1 is more complete and has significantly reduced aliasing effects that were present in previous models.

Lerch, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Estimation of the probability of error without ground truth and known a priori probabilities

The probability of error or, alternatively, the probability of correct classification (PCC) is an important criterion in analyzing the performance of a classifier. Labeled samples (those with ground truth) are usually employed to evaluate the performance of a classifier. Occasionally, the numbers of labeled samples are inadequate, or no labeled samples are available to evaluate a classifier's performance; for example, when crop signatures from one area from which ground truth is available are used to classify another area from which no ground truth is available. This paper reports the results of an experiment to estimate the probability of error using unlabeled test samples (i.e., without the aid of ground truth).

Havens, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Methods of correction for the 'wet' atmosphere in estimating baseline lengths from VLBI

The error in VLBI estimates of baseline length caused by unmodelled variations in the propagation path through the atmosphere is greater for longer baselines. Series of estimates of baseline lengths obtained using different methods to correct for the propagation delay caused by atmospheric water vapor are presented and discussed. The main methods are use of data from: a water-vapor radiometer (WVR) and Kalman-filtering of the VLBI data themselves to estimate the propagation delay. Since the longest timespan of WVR data associated with geodetic VLBI experiments was obtained at the Onsala Space Observatory in Sweden, results are presented for the following three baselines: (1) Onsala-Wettzell, FRG (920 km), (2) Onsala-Haystack/Westford, MA (5600 km), and (3) Onsala-Owens Valley (7914 km).

Elgered, G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Gupta, Rajan↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the sea-state bias of the Geosat altimeter

The sea-state bias in a satellite altimeter's range measurement is caused by the influence of ocean waves on the radar return pulse; it results in an estimate of sea level that is too low according to some function of the wave height. This bias is here estimated for Geosat by correlating collinear differences of altimetric sea-surface heights with collinear differences of significant wave heights (H1/3). Corrections for satellite orbit error are estimated simultaneously with the sea-state bias. Based on twenty 17-day repeat cycles of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission, the solution for the sea-state bias is 2.6 + or - 0.2 percent of H1/3. The least-squares residuals, however, show a correlation with wind speed U, so the traditional model of the bias has been supplemented with a second term: H1/3 + alpha-2H1/3U. This second term produces a small, but statistically significant, reduction in variance of the residuals. Both systematic and random errors in H1/3 and U tend to bias the estimates of alpha-1 and alpha-2, which complicates comparisons of the results with ground-based measurements of the sea-state bias.

Ray, Richard D.↗