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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
A preliminary study has shown that the use of a high-strength composite fiber cloth material may greatly reduce fabrication and deployment costs of a subsea offshore pipeline. The problem is to develop an inexpensive submerged pipeline that can safely and economically transport large quantities of fresh water, oil, and natural gas underwater for long distances. Above-water pipelines are often not feasible due to safety, cost, and environmental problems, and present, fixed-wall, submerged pipelines are often very expensive. The solution is to have a submerged, compliant-walled tube that when filled, is lighter than the surrounding medium. Some examples include compliant tubes for transporting fresh water under the ocean, for transporting crude oil underneath salt or fresh water, and for transporting high-pressure natural gas from offshore to onshore. In each case, the fluid transported is lighter than its surrounding fluid, and thus the flexible tube will tend to float. The tube should be ballasted to the ocean floor so as to limit the motion of the tube in the horizontal and vertical directions. The tube should be placed below 100-m depth to minimize biofouling and turbulence from surface storms. The tube may also have periodic pumps to maintain flow without over-pressurizing, or it can have a single pump at the beginning. The tube may have periodic valves that allow sections of the tube to be repaired or maintained. Some examples of tube materials that may be particularly suited for these applications are non-porous composite tubes made of high-performance fibers such as Kevlar, Spectra, PBO, Aramid, carbon fibers, or high-strength glass. Above-ground pipes for transporting water, oil, and natural gas have typically been fabricated from fiber-reinforced plastic or from more costly high-strength steel. Also, previous suggested subsea pipeline designs have only included heavy fixed-wall pipes that can be very expensive initially, and can be difficult and expensive to deploy for long distances. A much less expensive Kevlar pipeline can be coiled up on a ship s deck and deployed in the water as the ship moves. Support ships can be used to drop sand into conduits below the uninflated tube, so that the tube remains in place when more buoyant fresh water later fills the tubes.
An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.
This paper provides new analysis of the economics of low-cost propellant launch coupled with dry hardware re-use, and of the thermal control of the liquid hydrogen once on-orbit. One conclusion is that this approach enables an overall reduction in the cost-permission by as much as a factor of five as compared to current approaches for human exploration of the moon, Mars, and near-Earth asteroids.
Structural optimization with a flutter constraint for a vehicle designed to fly in the transonic regime is a particularly difficult task. In this speed range, the flutter boundary is very sensitive to aerodynamic nonlinearities, typically requiring high-fidelity Navier-Stokes simulations. However, the repeated application of unsteady computational fluid dynamics to guide an aeroelastic optimization process is very computationally expensive. This expense has motivated the development of methods that incorporate aspects of the aerodynamic nonlinearity, classical tools of flutter analysis, and more recent methods of optimization. While it is possible to use doublet lattice method aerodynamics, this paper focuses on the use of an unsteady high-fidelity aerodynamic reduced order model combined with successive transformations that allows for an economical way of utilizing high-fidelity aerodynamics in the optimization process. This approach is applied to the common research model wing structural design. As might be expected, the high-fidelity aerodynamics produces a heavier wing than that optimized with doublet lattice aerodynamics. It is found that the optimized lower skin of the wing using high-fidelity aerodynamics differs significantly from that using doublet lattice aerodynamics.
A new concept study was initiated to examine the framework needed to gradually develop an economical and sustainable lunar infrastructure using a public private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnership agreements between NASA and industry teams to develop cis-lunar and surface capabilities for mutual benefit while sharing cost and risk in the development phase and then allowing for transfer of operation of these infrastructure services back to its industry owners in the execution phase. These infrastructure services may include but are not limited to the following: lunar cargo transportation, power stations, energy storage devices, communication relay satellites, local communication towers, and surface mobility operations.
The human population and economy are now limited by the land area, materials and energy available on Earth. As explained by Malthus, human effort can increase this population limit only gradually and linearly at any fixed level of technology. The unexpected exponential increase in population since Malthus time is due to the even greater exponential increase in agricultural and industrial productivity due to modern technology. Current opinion is divided between the limiters who see fast approaching unavoidable limits to growth and growthers who expect continuing innovation and expansion. Given the minimum energy and food needed to support each human, the population of Earth is necessarily bounded. The past human exponential expansions were based on the invention of agriculture and industry. Continued expansion could occur with future colonization of the solar system. The initial occupation of near-Earth space would probably be for immediate military and economic gains rather than to escape the limits to growth on Earth. Space habitats could exploit solar system energy, materials, and living space, first in the Earth-moon system and later throughout the solar system. Space habitats would be supported by robotic power stations, mining, manufacturing, and transportation. These could travel to the stars with the addition of propulsion and nuclear power. Human expansion into the galaxy would allow continuing exponential growth and could establish a vast interconnected galactic civilization.
This database, the Mars Colony Architecture Model (MCAM), is then linked to a variety of “downsteam” analytic models. In particular, we integrated an Extraction Process (i.e., “Mining”) Model, an Infrastructure and Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) Model, and an Economics Integration Model. The Extraction Process Model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. For each mined resource, which may involve multiple cooperating In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) systems in a given architecture, the Extraction Process Model computes the production rate as a function of the systems’ technical parameters and the local Mars environment. As with our earlier work, this model focuses on the extraction and processing of Mars water/ice.
To support and enable future human missions to the surface of the Moon, a new plan was formulated to gradually develop an economical, evolvable and sustainable lunar infrastructure using a public/private partnerships between NASA and industry to share cost and risk in the development phase and ultimately transfer operation of these infrastructure services to its industry owners. These infrastructure services may include but are not limited to the following: lunar cargo transportation, power stations, energy storage devices, communication towers and relay satellites, and resource extraction operations. The plan is called the Commercial Orbital Transfer Services (COTS) Program, using NASA's well-proven Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Program acquisition model.
The reduced gravity environment of space provides a unique opportunity to further our understanding of various materials phenomena involving the molten, fluidic and gaseous states as well as life science applications where, contrary to earlier beliefs, microgravity induces changes in single cells and simple organisms; not only in large organisms with a complex overall response to gravity (or lack thereof). The potential breadth of commercial opportunities in microgravity thus spans over many verticals of the private sector with applications ranging from fiber optics, high-resolution crystals, microencapsulation, 3D organs to perfume and color dyes. Overall, products manufactured in microgravity hold the promise to have key properties surpassing their best terrestrial counterparts. Commercialization, also known as taking a new technology to market, is a journey in itself where the business, economic, market and technological components must align to generate a successful outcome. A business perspective is very different than technology maturation. In order for a technology to be ready for commercialization, it must not only be mature, but it must also have a compelling business case, and the means to scale up production must be identified and practical. Creating a robust economy in Earths orbit (Fig 1) is especially challenging because of the complexity (high risks, lack of standardization) involved in predicting future growth. This complexity can easily overwhelm the fact that many of the products have an attractive touch of space which aids with branding and marketing.This paper reviews the types of added value that can be extracted from space, with an emphasis on the microgravity environment. In addition, lessons learned from past commercialization efforts will be reviewed. While past efforts have yielded some point successes, they have as a whole failed to precipitate a sustainable LEO based market
In this paper, we extend an economical third-order nodal-gradient cell-centered finite-volume method, originally developed for tetrahedral grids, to mixed-element grids. It is shown that the efficient quadratic interpolation formula essential to eliminating second derivatives from a third-order accurate discretization can be easily extended to an arbitrary cell type. For the surface flux integration, we consider a split-face approach, where a quadrilateral face is split into two triangles, and the third-order method for tetrahedra is directly applied. Also, we derive a second-derivative-free, high-order, volume quadrature formula for an arbitrary cell. Numerical results are presented for accuracy verification and applications with three-dimensional nontetrahedral grids.
The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH 2 ) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) region near the normal boiling point. Hydrogen storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (~1,000 m 2 /g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH 2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 36% over a simple tank filled with GH 2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH 2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at improved densities, but testing is ongoing. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce green GH 2 . The TEA compares pure hydrogen produced at a small scale for a 25 MW power system and at a large scale in a 500 MW power system. The system allowed for hydrogen imports and exports at a set price with a tank sized for 10 hours of power production. The two power producing technologies are a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and hydrogen fuel cells. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) are developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. The results are shown for current costs using a 2021 benchmark and DOE projections for cost improvements by 2030. The TEA showed that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR has an LCOH of about 1.4 to 2 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production LCOH is about 5.2 to 5.5 USD per kg. The LCOS of conventional GH 2 systems is estimated to be $210/MWh and cost of storage for LH 2 systems is $205/MWh for fuel cell systems and $249/MWh for CCGT systems. CFC improved the LCOS of all these systems to $198/MWh, $191/MWh and $233/MWh respectively. The LCOE also improved with conventional systems between $171/MWh and $228/MWh improved by CFC to between $167/MWh and $212/MWh. Using projections for improvement in costs following DOE’s goals by 2030, green hydrogen improved to as low as $78/MWh LCOS and LCOE for conventional cases. CFC improved over conventional storage with the lowest LCOS being $62/MWh and the lowest LCOE being $73/MWh. These results correspond to an LCOH of $2/kg. Finally, the TEA shows how LCOE is improved for hydrogen conditioning and storage over conventional systems and caverns in the 10 to 50 hour range.
Electrochemical batteries, which serve as electric energy storage devices, are becoming increasingly popular among residential buildings that incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to help meet their energy needs. Battery economics are affected by performance degradation over time, and managing this degradation can help extend the battery's lifespan. The tradeoff between operational costs/benefits and managing battery degradation is of significant research interest. One of the key factors for assessing battery degradation is the dispatch strategy used to control the charging and discharging of the battery. Conventional dispatch strategies typically use simple rule-based methods, and these overly aggressive charging/discharging cycles can significantly reduce a battery’s life span. Our research seeks to develop optimized dispatch strategies for grid-connected PV homes with a goal of extending battery life while simultaneously taking into consideration utility costs and occupant comfort. To achieve this goal, we adapted lithium-ion battery life- and cyclic-degradation models for use in high-fidelity building simulations, so whole-building and grid-interactive controllers can dispatch the batteries along with other flexible loads. With the help of a co-simulation platform, we performed a simulation study to compute the optimized dispatch strategies for relevant operating conditions brought about by changing geographical locations, weather conditions, and utility pricing. Comparing the optimized strategies with the conventional strategies resulted in a >50% decrease in capacity degradation and >10% average reduction in operational costs during the months of January and July in Fort Collins, Colorado; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon.
REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations in California where PV is already installed. Costs include production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams included in the optimization are the sale of hydrogen, Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale electricity use optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations analyzed, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). This report also explores other aspects of hydrogen systems including optimal renewable sizing and resulting energy mixture to the electrolyzer, value of renewable premiums, competition with incumbent technologies, cost sensitivity to a variety of parameters.
In this paper, a new approach is proposed to solve a multi-objective economic-emission scheduling problem in microgrids (MGs) by simultaneously minimizing the energy and emission costs of the MG with various distributed energy resources (DERs). The proposed approach is an extension of a computationally effective multiobjective optimization technique, Pareto concavity elimination transformation (PaCcET). The proposed approach, referred to as Fuzzified-PaCcET, employs a fuzzy logic controller to dynamically revise crossover and mutation rates in the original PaCcET leading to the faster convergence of the solution. The proposed approach finds the best Pareto front, also referred to as a Non-dominated set (NDS) of solutions, instead of finding a single optimal solution. In order to find the solutions on concave areas of the Pareto front, an iterative objective space transformation is performed in the PaCcET algorithm to allow a linear combination of objective functions (in the transformed objective space). The proposed Fuzzified-PaCcET-based scheduling is implemented on a MG with various dispatchable and non-dispatchable DERs to find the set of optimal solutions according to the total fuel cost of DERs, as well as the most optimum environmental cost. In order to extract the best compromise solution (BCS) among NDS of solutions, a fuzzy-based method is implemented. The comparison of the simulation results of the Fuzzified-PaCcET with that of PaCcET shows that Fuzzified-PaCcET can generate better solution with less computational burden.
Summary of results from the H2@Scale technical and economic potential report and a mention of the LA100 study put in the context of arctic sustainable energy.
As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The integration of renewable power and storage to support future carbon-free utility has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable generation into the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.