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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Securing Inverter Communication: Proactive Intrusion Detection and Mitigation System to Tap, Analyze, and Act

The electric grid has undergone rapid, revolutionary changes in recent years; from the addition of advanced smart technologies to the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) to increased interconnectivity and communications. However, these added communications, access interfaces, and third-party software to enable autonomous control schemes and interconnectivity also expand the attack surface of the grid. To address the gap of DER cybersecurity and secure the grid-edge to motivate a holistic, defense-in-depth approach, a proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) device was developed to secure PV smart inverter communications. The PIDMS was developed as a distributed, flexible bump-in-the-wire (BITW) solution for protecting PV smart inverter communications. Both cyber (network traffic) and physical (power system measurements) are processed using network intrusion monitoring tools and custom machinelearning algorithms for deep packet analysis and cyber-physical event correlation. The PIDMS not only detects abnormal events but also deploys mitigations to limit or eliminate system impact; the PIDMS communicates with peer PIDMSs at different locations using the MQTT protocol for increased situational awareness and alerting. The details of the PIDMS methodology and prototype development are detailed in this report as well as the evaluation results within a cyber-physical emulation environment and subsequent industry feedback.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
DOE OSTI2022

PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.

Liu, Siyan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grid-Interactive Electric Vehicle and Building Coordination Using Coupled Distributed Control: Preprint

As an increasing number of controllable devices are introduced onto the grid, they can individually provide ancillary services in support of grid stability. However, the goals of each device differ due to their type and individual objectives, causing instances where they may conflict. To reduce the chances of these devices contributing to grid instability, these devices must effectively communicate in a cooperative manner to both meet their own needs while providing services to the grid. Previous work demonstrates that the NALD (Network Lasso-ADMM - Limited Communication - DMPC) algorithm allows coordination between two subsystems that use different control algorithms (building and charging stations) to provide services to the grid and individually optimize their performance in a specific scenario. The ideal NALD algorithm should be generalized to allow plug-and-play capabilities across devices of differing characteristics. This paper takes a step toward generalizability by updating the electric vehicle charging objective and re-defining the communication scheme compared to prior work to generalize the coordination and, as a result, improve the performance of the NALD algorithm.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY CONSERVATION, C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-temperature warm dense hydrogen as a test of quantum protons driven by orbital-free density functional theory electronic forces

We consider a steady-state (but transient) situation in which a warm dense aggregate is a two-temperature system with equilibrium electrons at temperature Te, ions at Ti, and Te ≠ Ti. Such states are achievable by pump–probe experiments. For warm dense hydrogen in such a two-temperature situation, we investigate nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) on structure and thermodynamic properties, thereby delineating the limitations of ordinary ab initio molecular dynamics. We use path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations driven by orbital-free density functional theory (OFDFT) calculations with state-of-the-art noninteracting free-energy and exchange-correlation functionals for the explicit temperature dependence. We calibrate the OFDFT calculations against conventional (explicit orbitals) Kohn–Sham DFT. We find that when the ratio of the ionic thermal de Broglie wavelength to the mean interionic distance is larger than about 0.30, the ionic radial distribution function is meaningfully affected by the inclusion of NQEs. Moreover, NQEs induce a substantial increase in both the ionic and electronic pressures. This confirms the importance of NQEs for highly accurate equation-of-state data on highly driven hydrogen. For Te > 20 kK, increasing Te in the warm dense hydrogen has slight effects on the ionic radial distribution function and equation of state in the range of densities considered. In addition, we confirm that compared with thermostatted ring-polymer molecular dynamics, the primitive PIMD algorithm overestimates electronic pressures, a consequence of the overly localized ionic description from the primitive scheme.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Online Sequential RVFLNs for Data Modeling of Dynamic Time-Varying Systems with Application of an Ironmaking Blast Furnace

In a world where the increasing complexity of modern industrial processes brings difficulties for accurate mathematical modeling, taking advantage of data has become an efficient solution to complex dynamic process modeling issue. In this paper, we develop a novel robust online sequential version of random vector functional-link networks (RVFLNs) for data-driven modeling of dynamic time-varying system and applied it in a blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process. First, to overcome the time-varying dynamics of process and to enable the RVFLNs to learn online with avoiding data saturation, an improved online sequential version of RVFLNs (OS-RFVLNs) is first presented by online sequential learning with forgetting factor. This improved OS-RVFLNs algorithm is not only suitable for the real-time and large data transfer situation, but also can adjust the sensitivity of the algorithm to different samples with the help of the introduced forgetting factor. Second, since the output weights of the improved OS-RVFLNs as well as other RVFLNs algorithms are obtained by the least squares approach, a robustness problem may occur when the training dataset is contaminated with various outliers. To solve this problem, a Cauchy distribution weighted M-estimator is introduced to improve the robustness of the improved OS- RVFLNs. For this proposed robust OS-RVFLNs (R-OS- RVFLNs), since the weights of different outlier data are properly determined by the Cauchy distribution function, their corresponding contribution on modeling can be properly distinguished. Thus robust and better modeling results can be achieved. Experiments using actual industrial data of BF ironmaking process and comparative studies have demonstrated that the proposed method produces a better estimation accuracy and stronger robustness than other methods.

Blast furnace (BF), Modelling, Dynamic systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tracking the ancestry of known and ‘ghost’ homeologous subgenomes in model grass Brachypodium polyploids

Unraveling the evolution of plant polyploids is a challenge when their diploid progenitor species are extinct or unknown or when genome sequences of known progenitors are unavailable. Existing subgenome identification methods cannot adequately infer the homeologous genomes that are present in the allopolyploids if they do not take into account the potential existence of unknown progenitors. We addressed this challenge in the widely distributed dysploid grass genus Brachypodium, which is a model genus for temperate cereals and biofuel grasses. We used a transcriptome-based phylogeny and newly designed subgenome detection algorithms coupled with a comparative chromosome barcoding analysis. Our phylogenomic subgenome detection pipeline was validated in Triticum allopolyploids, which have known progenitor genomes, and then used to infer the identities of three subgenomes derived from extant diploid species and four subgenomes derived from unknown diploid progenitors (ghost subgenomes) in six Brachypodium polyploids (B. mexicanum, B. boissieri, B. retusum, B. phoenicoides, B. rupestre and B. hybridum), of which five contain undescribed homeologous subgenomes. The existence of the seven Brachypodium progenitor genomes in the polyploids was confirmed by their karyotypic barcode profiles. Comparative phylogenomics of nuclear versus plastid trees allowed us to formulate hypothetical homoploid hybridizations and allo- and autopolyploidization scenarios that could have generated the six Brachypodium polyploids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Neural Network Algorithm for CMC Microstructure Characterization and Variability Quantification

Microstructure characterization and variability quantification are crucial for understanding ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) mechanical behavior and deformation mechanisms across length scales. Traditionally, analyses of the micrographs obtained from microscopy are labor-intensive. However, with the vast improvement in computer vision (CV) and deep learning (DL), an automated algorithm can be designed to extract essential microstructure variability from micrographs which can then be used to construct a statistically representative volume element (SRVE). The DL-based algorithm spans the taxonomy of microstructure analyses, including semantic segmentation of microstructure constituents, secondary phases, matrix/fiber interface, and defects, and quantifying the microstructure variability in terms of probability distributions. In this work, C/SiNC and SiC/SiNC CMCs microstructures are semantically segmented through a deep convolutional neural network, followed by variability quantification through the implementation of a fully connected regression layer, hence forming a deep regression network. The deep regression network operates in a feedforward regime, in which the neuron output signal traverses through the network in a unidirectional manner. The weight tensor associated with each layer is updated through a backpropagation stochastic gradient descent approach. The input gray-scale image obtained through in-house scanning electron microscope and confocal microscope micrographs is augmented through affine transformations to increase the training set size, which is then processed through four strided convolutional layers. This compresses the image resolution by half at each layer while increasing the image depth by applying different filters (image encoding). The class activation maps (CAMs) corresponding to the applied filters highlight the key architectural features and assist with the semantic segmentation of the microstructure.

Hamza, Mohamed H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler in UQTk

Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) is a variant of a class of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms known as tempering-based methods. In this report, the implementation of TMCMC in the Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit is investigated through the sampling of high-dimensional distributions, multi-modal distributions, and nonlinear manifolds. Furthermore, the Bayesian model evidence estimates obtained from TMCMC are tested on problems with known analytical solutions and shown to provide consistent results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation of realistic input parameters for simulating atmospheric point-spread functions at astronomical observatories

High-fidelity simulated astronomical images are an important tool in developing and measuring the performance of image-processing algorithms, particularly for high precision measurements of cosmic shear – correlated distortions of images of distant galaxies due to weak gravitational lensing caused by the large-scale mass distribution in the Universe. For unbiased measurements of cosmic shear, all other sources of correlated image distortions must be modeled or removed. One such source is the correlated blurring of images due to optical turbulence in the atmosphere, which dominates the point-spread function (PSF) for ground-based instruments. In this work, we leverage data from weather forecasting models to produce wind speeds and directions, and turbulence parameters, that are realistically correlated with altitude. To study the resulting correlations in the size and shape of the PSF, we generate simulated images of the PSF across a ~10 square-degree field of view – the size of the camera focal plane for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile – using weather data and historical seeing for a geographic location near the Observatory. We make quantitative predictions for two-point correlation functions (2PCF) that are used in analyses of cosmic shear. We observe a strong anisotropy in the two-dimensional 2PCF, which is expected based on observations in real images, and study the dependence of the orientation of the anisotropy on dominant wind directions near the ground and at higher altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Angular Dependence of Drell-Yan in the SeaQuest Experiment using Deep Neural Network-Based Reconstruction

The SeaQuest and SpinQuest experiments at Fermilab were designed to probe the internal dynamics of protons and neutrons via the angular dependence of muons created by colliding 120 GeV protons into stationary targets. To do this, it is necessary to translate the detector data into coherent information about the particles detected in the experiment. This dissertation describes the development and implementation of QTracker, a neural network-based algorithm designed to reconstruct muons. The application of QTracker to experimental data yields improved reconstruction of muon tracks, allowing for a more precise investigation of the transverse momentum distributions and angular modulations in the Drell-Yan process. This work highlights the potential of neural network-based methods to advance particle tracking and enhance our understanding of nucleon structure.

Conover, Arthur↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability and Diversity Load Model Tool [SWR-20-03]

The motivation for the development of this tool and the underlying algorithms and methods was to enable the development of high-temporal resolution, realistic time-series data for quasi-static time-series (QSTS) analysis of distribution systems. Often, aggregated load profile data for a distribution circuit is available (e.g. feeder loading data collected via SCADA at the utility substation) and, while this data is typically accurate it masks the considerable variability of the 100’s or 1000’s of individual loads connected on the circuit. This tool was developed to model both the increased variability expected for these individual loads (e.g. the load of a single distribution transformer connected to 8-12 houses) and the expected diversity between loads on the circuit. It is important to note that the difference in variability and diversity, in the context of this tool, is that variability modeling only adds representative variability due to disaggregated load characteristics (e.g. the presence in the load profile of loads turning off and on like an air conditioner/oven) while the average energy profile remains the same as the user supplied power profile. Diversity modeling generates multiple individual load profiles which, in aggregate, sum to the user supplied power profile. Diversity is effectively variability in the energy usage over longer periods of time than seen in the variability model. Put another way, variability modeling supplies the expected variability due to the operation of various end-use loads and diversity modeling supplies the usage differences due to human behavior, schedules, etc. This load modeling tool was developed for use in generating data for distribution systems. Modeling is summarized by two major functions: 1) taking low resolution load profiles and adding intra-seconds variability onto the profiles, and 2) taking a user supplied load profile and distribution factors and adding both diversity and variability to the user supplied profile.

Zhu, Xiangqi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗