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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Non-isothermal effects on SO2 absorption by water droplets. I - Model development. II - Results and discussion

An analytic model of SO2 absorption in a falling water droplet is developed and a simulation of SO2 washout is performed. Nonisothermic effects on drop growth, droplet physical parameters, reaction rates, and multicomponent diffusion are treated in the model. The gas-liquid interface is assumed to be at equilibrium, and interfacial resistance is negligible. Raindrops are simulated as falling from a 2 km height through an atmospheric region containing SO2. The droplets decrease in size from evaporation and cooling, and their slightly basic pH aids SO2 absorption. The simulation indicates higher SO2 absorption at higher altitudes, and desorption may occur at ground level. Isothermal effects are concluded to be significant, and quantification of effects will depend on further modelling.

Reda, M.↗

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

Magnetic Reconnection in Different Environments: Similarities and Differences

Depending on the specific situation, magnetic reconnection may involve symmetric or asymmetric inflow regions. Asymmetric reconnection applies, for example, to reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause, whereas reconnection in the nightside magnetotail tends to involve more symmetric geometries. A combination of review and new results pertaining to magnetic reconnection is being presented. The focus is on three aspects: A basic, MHD-based, analysis of the role magnetic reconnection plays in the transport of energy, followed by an analysis of a kinetic model of time dependent reconnection in a symmetric current sheet, similar to what is typically being encountered in the magnetotail of the Earth. The third element is a review of recent results pertaining to the orientation of the reconnection line in asymmetric geometries, which are typical for the magnetopause of the Earth, as well as likely to occur at other planets.

Reconnection↗

Spatial dependences in the distant solar wind: Pioneers 10 and 11

Pioneer 10, 11 observations of the solar wind and magnetic field between 1 and 20 AU are reviewed. Spatial dependences, which are emphasized, must be inferred in the presence of large temporal variations including solar cycle effects. The separation of spatial and temporal dependences is achieved principally through the use of multipoint observations including baseline measurements at 1 AU. Measurements of the solar wind parameters (radial speed, flux, proton temperature) and of the magnetic field magnitude and components are compared with two theories, the Parker theory which assumes radial, azimuthally symmetric flow and the Goldstein-Jokipii theory which includes effects associated with stream-stream interactions. The observed radial gradients in the proton density and velocity and the magnetic field are consistent with the Parker model. A qualitative dependence of field magnitude on heliomagnetic latitude, i.e., referred to the observed location of the heliospheric current sheet, was derived. The field strength was found to decrease with distance from the current sheet.

Smith, E. J.↗

Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

Modeling↗

Numerical Model for Isothermal and Non-Isothermal Crystallization of Liquids and Glasses

A new numerical model of isothermal and non-isothermal first order phase transformations, such as the crystallization of liquids and glasses, is presented. This model computes directly the volume fraction transformed, taking into account time-dependent nucleation rates and cluster-size-dependent growth velocities. The model is applied to the crystallization of lithium disilicate glass, using the appropriate kinetic and thermodynamic parameters. The model is used (1) to determine the validity of common methods for computing the volume fraction transformed as a function of time in isothermal experiments when a time-dependent nucleation rate is expected, (2) to simulate non-isothermal differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) studies of glass devitrification as a function of scan rate, and (3) to compute the effect of preannealing on the DSC peak parameters. A novel behavior of the nucleation rate with scan rate is predicted, arising because the relaxation of the cluster distribution cannot be described by a single relaxation time. Comparisons of the calculations with experimental data on this glass demonstrate the validity of the model.

Kelton, K. F.↗

Cosmic-ray-modified supernova remnant shocks

The evolution of cosmic-ray-modified SNRs during the early Sedov phase is investigated using the time-dependent, two-fluid model for diffusive shock acceleration. Consideration is given to the sensitivity of net acceleration efficiency to model assumptions regarding density structure of the external medium as well as time dependence in the diffusion coefficient and the cosmic-ray adiabatic index. Of the model assumptions explored, the greatest sensitivity was found to time variations in the specific heat ratio to cosmic rays. It was found that if tau is greater than or approximately equal to few times 100, dynamically significant cosmic-ray pressures are produced early in the Sedov inefficient cosmic-ray accelerators. For the SNR models under consideration, the total energy channeled into the cosmic rays can be of order 10 percent of the initial blast energy for both the uniform density and inverse-square density interstellar medium models.

Jones, T. W.↗

Lidar observation of marine mixed layer

Marine mixed layer is known to play an important role in the transportation of pollution exiting ship funnels. The application of a diffusion model is critically dependent upon a reliable estimate of a lid. However, the processes that form lids are not well understood, though considerable progress toward marine boundary layer has been achieved. This report describes observations of the marine mixed layer from the course Ise-wan to Nii-jima with the intention of gaining a better understanding of their structure by a shipboard lidar. These observations were made in the summer of 1991. One interesting feature of the observations was that the multiple layers of aerosols, which is rarely numerically modeled, was encountered. No attempt is yet made to present a systematic analysis of all the data collected. Instead we focus on observations that seem to be directly relevant to the structure of the mixed layer.

Yamagishi, Susumu↗

Phased array feed design technology for Large Aperture Microwave Radiometer (LAMR) Earth observations

An assessment of the potential and limitations of phased array antennas in space-based geophysical precision radiometry is described. Mathematical models exhibiting the dependence of system and scene temperatures and system sensitivity on phased array antenna parameters and components such as phase shifters and low noise amplifiers (LNA) are developed. Emphasis is given to minimum noise temperature designs wherein the LNA's are located at the array level, one per element or subarray. Two types of combiners are considered: array lenses (space feeds) and corporate networks. The result of a survey of suitable components and devices is described. The data obtained from that survey are used in conjunction with the mathematical models to yield an assessment of effective array antenna noise temperature for representative geostationary and low Earth orbit systems. Practical methods of calibrating a space-based, phased array radiometer are briefly addressed as well.

Schuman, H. K.↗

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗

Paradigm Shift in Data Content and Informatics Infrastructure Required for Generalized Constitutive Modeling of Materials Behavior

Materials property information such as composition and thermophysical/mechanical properties abound in the literature. Oftentimes, however, the corresponding response curves from which these data are determined are missing or at the very least difficult to retrieve. Further, the paradigm for collecting materials property information has historically centered on (1) properties for materials comparison/selection purposes and (2) input requirements for conventional design/analysis methods. However, just as not all materials are alike or equal, neither are all constitutive models (and thus design/ analysis methods) equal; each model typically has its own specific and often unique required materials parameters, some directly measurable and others indirectly measurable. Therefore, the type and extent of materials information routinely collected is not always sufficient to meet the current, much less future, needs of the materials modeling community. Informatics has been defined as the science concerned with gathering, manipulating, storing, retrieving, and classifying recorded information. A key aspect of informatics is its focus on understanding problems and applying information technology as needed to address those problems. The primary objective of this article is to highlight the need for a paradigm shift in materials data collection, analysis, and dissemination so as to maximize the impact on both practitioners and researchers. Our hope is to identify and articulate what constitutes "sufficient" data content (i.e., quality and quantity) for developing, characterizing, and validating sophisticated nonlinear time- and history-dependent (hereditary) constitutive models. Likewise, the informatics infrastructure required for handling the potentially massive amounts of materials data will be discussed.

Arnold, S. M.↗

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

On the Determination of Ejecta Structure and Explosion Asymmetry from the X-ray Knots of Cassiopeia A

We present a detailed analysis of Chandra X-ray spectra from individual ejecta knots in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A. The spectra are fitted to give the electron temperature T(sub e), and (single) ionization age n(sub e)t. These quantities are compared with the predictions of self similar hydrodynamic models incorporating time dependent ionization and radiation losses, and Coulomb electron-ion equilibration behind the reverse shock, for a variety of different ejecta density profiles described by a uniform density core and a power law envelope. We find that the ejecta close to the 'jet' region in the NE, but not actually in the jet itself, have a systematically shallower outer envelope than ejecta elsewhere in the remnant, and we interpret this as being due to more energy of the initial explosion being directed in this polar direction as opposed to equatorially. The degree of asymmetry we infer is at the low end of that generally modelled in asymmetric core-collapse simulations, and may be used to rule out highly asymmetric explosion models.

Laming, J. Martin↗

Stellar coronae - What can be predicted with minimum flux models?

In order to determine the possible errors of various minimum flux corona (MFC) predictions, MFC models are compared with a grid of detailed coronal models covering a range of two orders of magnitude in coronal heating and damping length values. The MFC concept is totally unreliable in the prediction of mass loss and the relative importance of various kinds of energy losses, and MFC predictions for the mass loss rate and energy losses due to stellar wind can be wrong by many orders of magnitude. It is suggested that for future applications, the unreliable MFC formulas should be replaced by a grid of related models accounting for the coronal dependence on damping length, such as the models underlying the present study.

Hammer, R.↗

The design of a model-following control system for helicopters

The design of an explicit model-following control system is described and the results of a ground-based simulation experiment investigating the performance and limitations of this control system for a hingeless-rotor and a teetering-rotor helicopter are reported. The explicit model was a linear, decoupled model such that the pilot commanded pitch attitude with the longitudinal cyclic, roll attitude with the lateral cyclic, yaw rate with the pedals, and earth-fixed vertical velocity with the collective. A new model-following performance criterion was developed to optimize the control-law design and to evaluate the model-following performance. The results of the simulation indicate that the performance of the model-following control system is dependent on the dynamics of the explicit model and on the limitations of the actuating system. Increases in the bandwidth of the explicit model placed higher demands on the control system and resulted in degraded model-following performance. Significant improvements in model-following performance were achieved when a control-law switching feature, which was designed to account for position- or rate-limited actuators, was included in the control system. The excellent overall model-following performance obtained for these two radically different helicopters indicates the flexibility and versatility of this control technique.

Hilbert, K. B.↗

Strong Sensitivity of the Isotopic Composition of Methane to the Plausible Range of Tropospheric Chlorine

The C-13 isotopic ratio of methane, δC-13 of CH4, provides additional constraints on the CH4 budget to complement the constraints from CH4 observations. The interpretation of δC-13 observations is complicated, however, by uncertainties in the methane sink. The reaction of CH4 with Cl is highly fractionating, increasing the relative abundance of 13CH4, but there is currently no consensus on the strength of the tropospheric Cl sink. Global model simulations of halogen chemistry differ strongly from one another in terms of both the magnitude of tropospheric Cl and its geographic distribution. This study explores the impact of the inter-model diversity in Cl fields on the simulated δC-13 of CH4. We use a set of GEOS global model simulations with different predicted Cl fields to test the sensitivity of the δC-13 of CH4 to the diversity of Cl output from chemical transport models. We find that δC-13 is highly sensitive to both the amount and geographic distribution of Cl. Simulations with Cl providing 0.28% or 0.66% of the total CH4 loss bracket the δC-13 observations for a fixed set of emissions. Thus, even when Cl provides only a small fraction of the total CH4 loss and has a small impact on total CH4, it provides a strong lever on δC-13. Consequently, it is possible to achieve a good representation of total CH4 using widely different Cl concentrations, but the partitioning of CH4 loss between the OH and Cl reactions leads to strong differences in isotopic composition depending on which model’s Cl field is used. Comparing multiple simulations, we find that altering the tropospheric Cl field leads to approximately a 0.5‰ increase in δ(13)CH4for each percent increase in how much CH4 is oxidized by Cl. The geographic distribution and seasonal cycle of Cl also impacts the hemispheric gradient and seasonal cycle of δC-13. The large effect of Cl on δC-13 compared to total CH4 broadens the range of CH4 source mixtures that can be reconciled with δC-13 observations. Stronger constraints on tropospheric Cl are necessary to improve estimates of CH4 sources from δC-13 observations.

Global model simulations of halogen chemistry↗

A Framework for Preliminary Design of Aircraft Structures Based on Process Information

This report discusses the general framework and development of a computational tool for preliminary design of aircraft structures based on process information. The described methodology is suitable for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) activities associated with integrated product and process development (IPPD). The framework consists of three parts: (1) product and process definitions; (2) engineering synthesis, and (3) optimization. The product and process definitions are part of input information provided by the design team. The backbone of the system is its ability to analyze a given structural design for performance as well as manufacturability and cost assessment. The system uses a database on material systems and manufacturing processes. Based on the identified set of design variables and an objective function, the system is capable of performing optimization subject to manufacturability, cost, and performance constraints. The accuracy of the manufacturability measures and cost models discussed here depend largely on the available data on specific methods of manufacture and assembly and associated labor requirements. As such, our focus in this research has been on the methodology itself and not so much on its accurate implementation in an industrial setting. A three-tier approach is presented for an IPPD-MDO based design of aircraft structures. The variable-complexity cost estimation methodology and an approach for integrating manufacturing cost assessment into design process are also discussed. This report is presented in two parts. In the first part, the design methodology is presented, and the computational design tool is described. In the second part, a prototype model of the preliminary design Tool for Aircraft Structures based on Process Information (TASPI) is described. Part two also contains an example problem that applies the methodology described here for evaluation of six different design concepts for a wing spar.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

Carbon Dioxide Clouds at High Altitude in the Tropics and in an Early Dense Martian Atmosphere

We use a time dependent, microphysical cloud model to study the formation of carbon dioxide clouds in the Martian atmosphere. Laboratory studies by Glandor et al. show that high critical supersaturations are required for cloud particle nucleation and that surface kinetic growth is not limited. These conditions, which are similar to those for cirrus clouds on Earth, lead to the formation of carbon dioxide ice particles with radii greater than 500 micrometers and concentrations of less than 0.1 cm(exp -3) for typical atmospheric conditions. Within the current Martian atmosphere, CO2 cloud formation is possible at the poles during winter and at high altitudes in the tropics during periods of increased atmospheric dust loading. In both cases, temperature perturbations of several degrees below the CO2 saturation temperature are required to nucleate new cloud particles suggesting that dynamical processes are the most common initiators of carbon dioxide clouds rather than diabatic cooling. The microphysical cloud model, coupled to a two-stream radiative transfer model, is used to reexamine the impact of CO2 clouds on the surface temperature within a dense CO2 atmosphere. The formation of carbon dioxide clouds leads to a warmer surface than what would be expected for clear sky conditions. The amount of warming is sensitive to the presence of dust and water vapor in the atmosphere, both of which act to dampen cloud effects. The radiative warming associated with cloud formation, as well as latent heating, work to dissipate the clouds when present. Thus, clouds never last for periods much longer than several days, limiting their overall effectiveness for warming the surface. The time average cloud optical depth is approximately unity leading to a 5-10 K warming, depending on the surface pressure. However, the surface temperature does not rise about the freezing point of liquid water even for pressures as high as 5 bars, at a solar luminosity of 75% the current value.

Colaprete, Anthony↗