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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Model Predictions and Performance Test Data for a Prototype Thermal Energy Storage Module

Although model predictions of thermal energy storage (TES) performance have been explored in previous investigations, relevant test data that enable experimental validation of performance models have been limited. This is particularly true for high-performance TES designs that facilitate fast input and extraction of energy. In this paper, we present a summary of experimental tests of a high-performance TES unit using lithium nitrate trihydrate phase change material as a storage medium. Performance data are presented for complete dual-mode cycles consisting of extraction (melting) followed by charging (freezing). These tests simulate the cyclic operation of a TES unit for asynchronous cooling in a variety of applications. Finally, the model analysis is found to agree reasonably well, within 10%, with the experimental data except for conditions very near the initiation of freezing, a consequence of subcooling that is required to initiate solidification.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) for inspection and calibration for cylindrical wavefront interferometry

High-accuracy metrology is vitally important in manufacturing ultra-high-quality free-form mirrors designed to manipulate X-ray light with nanometer-scale wavelengths. However, surface topography measurements are instrument dependent, and without the knowledge of how the instrument performs under the practical usage conditions, the measured data contain some degree of uncertainty. Binary Pseudo Random Array (BPRA) “white noise” artifact are effective and useful for characterizing the Instrument Transfer Function (ITF) of surface topography metrology tools and wavefront measurement instrument. BPRA artifact contains features with all spatial frequencies in the instrument bandpass with equal weight. As a result, power spectral density of the patterns has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the ITF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range. The application examples include electron microscopes, x-ray microscopes, interferometric microscopes, and large field-of-view Fizeau Interferometers. Furthermore, we will introduce the application of BPRA method to characterizing the ITF of Cylindrical Wavefront Interferometry (CWI), by developing the BPRA artifact which matches the radius of curvature of the cylindrical wavefront. The data acquisition and analysis procedures for different applications of the ITF calibration technique developed are also discussed.

Munechika, K↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical signature characterization with hyperspectral imagery: novel deep learning model architectures and physically-motivated data augmentation techniques

The high spectral resolution afforded by Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) sensors is poised to bring unprecedented advancements to signature characterization applications. Thus far, much of the research in the machine learning field devoted to HSI applications has focused on a few specific tasks like land-use land-cover classification. In land classification tasks, spatial information is very important, and model architectures are often designed to leverage spatial contexts. However, it is unclear how well these spatially-tuned models will translate to tasks where spectral information is critical, like the detection and characterization of chemicals. In this work, we compare spectral models (inputs are 1D spectra) and spatial-spectral models (inputs are 3D cubes) in the context of predicting chemical concentration maps. We find that spatial-spectral models perform the best, though we find a wide range in performance across the different architectures tested. Additionally, we find that model performance is impacted by the availability of training data, particularly in scenarios where the training data doesn't fully capture the true variance of real-world conditions. We find that data augmentation can help mitigate sparse coverage of observed parameter space (e.g., seasonal or geographic variability in ground cover), and present augmentation strategies that are tailored to hyperspectral data.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attend and Decode: 4D fMRI Task State Decoding Using Attention Models

Source code for Brain Attend and Decode paper. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a neuroimaging modality that captures the blood oxygen level in a subject's brain while the subject either rests or performs a variety of functional tasks under different conditions. Given fMRI data, the problem of inferring the task, known as task state decoding, is challenging due to the high dimensionality (hundreds of million sampling points per datum) and complex spatio-temporal blood flow patterns inherent in the data. In this work, we propose to tackle the fMRI task state decoding problem by casting it as a 4D spatiotemporal classification problem. We present a novel architecture called Brain Attend and Decode (BAnD), that uses residual convolutional neural networks for spatial feature extraction and self-attention mechanisms for temporal modeling. We achieve significant performance gain compared to previous works on a 7-task benchmark from the large-scale Human Connectome Project-Young Adult (HCP-YA) dataset. We also investigate the transferability of BAnD's extracted features on unseen HCP tasks, either by freezing the spatial feature extraction layers and retraining the temporal model, or finetuning the entire model. The pre-trained features from BAnD are useful on similar tasks while finetuning them yields competitive results on unseen tasks/conditions.

Ng, BrendaM.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Second Annual Progress Report on Correlation Between Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Neutron-Irradiated Ferritic-Martensitic and Austenitic Steels

Ferritic-martensitic steels G92-2b (an optimized Grade 92 heat), NF616 and T91, and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Selected G92-2b samples were irradiated up to 14.66 dpa in the HFIR at two temperature ranges: 400–496.7°C and 683.3– 720°C. NF616 and T91 were irradiated in the ATR up to 8.16 dpa with the irradiation temperatures ranged from 241°C to 447.5°C. Alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples were irradiated in both the HFIR and the ATR. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples had HFIR irradiation to 1.28 dpa at 580°C and ATR irradiation up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurements, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the Low Activation Materials Design and Analysis (LAMDA) laboratory. Radiation-hardening of G92-2b was observed at the lower doses and lower irradiation temperatures (400- 496.7°C), with GB03 (0.52 dpa at 400°C) and GB04 (7.44 dpa at ~490°C) showing ~12% and ~8% hardening, respectively. Softening by ~14% was observed for GB05 (14.66 dpa at 496.7°C). Radiationsoftening of G92-2b was more prevalent at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with GB10 (0.46 dpa at 683.3°C), GB11 (7.44 dpa at ~720°C), and GB12 (14.63 dpa at ~720°C) showing ~8%, ~8%, and ~40% softening, respectively. Radiation-hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed with the hardness increased by ~37% to ~65% depending on the irradiation doses and irradiation temperatures. Within the studied irradiation conditions of NF616 and T91, samples with a higher dose had a larger hardness after irradiation. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in this work showed radiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800H-TMP tended to have slightly smaller radiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography results of G92-2b sample GB03, GB10, and GB11, together with the previously characterized fractography of GB04, GB05, and GB12, indicated that the ductility of G92-2b was maintained up to 14.66 dpa at the lower irradiation temperatures of 400-496.7°C, while some loss of ductility (less necking) was observed for higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-720°C. This agrees with the previously reported tensile test results of G92-2b, where the elongation of G92-2b was reduced at higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures. Dimple sizes increased at higher doses, which are more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-~720°C. The fractography of NF616 sample D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for sample D2, while ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in various irradiation conditions showed ductile failure with obvious necking. Dimples were observed, with some of them containing large Ti-rich particles, in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. Electron backscatter diffraction characterization of GB12 indicated the recovery of the lath structure, which was generally replaced by an equiaxed grain structure. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization showed the presence of frequent M 23 C 6 (M = primarily Cr), MX (M = primarily V), spherical Nb(C,N) precipitates, and occasional Laves phase precipitates in the G92-2b samples. MX precipitates with sizes of 20-30 nm were observed at boundaries of smaller grains, indicating the pinning effect of the V-rich precipitates. The lath structure recovery was more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with decreased densities of line dislocations and M23C6 precipitates. The irradiated T91 (TA04) showed the growth of M23C6 precipitates to 101 ± 40 nm from the initial 68 ± 22 nm in the unirradiated condition. Dislocation loops of both {100} and {111} types were present in TA04. TEM characterization was also performed on the irradiated 800H (N4, N5, N6, and AR2) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5, P6, and HG1). Accumulation of M 23 C 6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all the xii 800H/800H-TMP samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in the irradiated 800H-TMP. Some Ti(C,N) precipitates are embedded in the M 23 C 6 precipitates, maintaining specific orientation relationships between the precipitates and between the precipitate and matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all the 800H/800H-TMP samples, with EDS Si maps tending to have a lower contrast in 800H-TMP samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, supported by a Rapid Turnaround Examination project under Nuclear Science User Facilities. The results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the γ’ precipitates. Dislocation loops also formed in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. The density and the average size of dislocation loops were quantified to be in the order of 10 22 – 10 23 m -3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively, in the ATR-irradiated 800H/800H-TMP samples. The loop densities in irradiated 800H were higher than that in irradiated 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report on partially complete post-irradiation-examination of the INL samples

Ferritic-martensitic steels (NF616 and T91), and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and their microstructures and mechanical properties were characterized. Ferritic-martensitic steels were irradiated up to 8.16 dpa in the irradiation temperatures ranging from 241 °C to 447.5 °C. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples were also irradiated up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurement, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the LAMDA lab. Radiation-induced hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed in the hardness measurements which show ~37% to ~65% increases, depending on irradiation dose and irradiation temperature. Within the irradiation conditions studied in this work, samples with a higher dose had a higher hardness. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP in this work showed irradiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800HTMP tended to have slightly smaller irradiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography of NF616 samples D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for the sample D2, yet obvious ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H samples N4 (7.27 dpa at 359°C), N5 (3.9 dpa at 451.5°C), and N6 (9.01 dpa at 431°C), and alloy 800H-TMP samples P4 (7.36 dpa at 359°C), P5 (3.95 dpa at 451.5°C), and P6 (9.12 dpa at 431°C) indicated that all samples failed in a ductile mode, with obvious necking. Dimples were observed where large Ti-containing particles were observed for the samples. TEM characterization was performed on alloy 800H (N4, N5, N6) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5 and P6). Accumulation of M23C6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in alloy 800H-TMP. M23C6 precipitates were found to have the cube-on-cube orientation relationship with the matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, and their results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the clustering behavior. Due to the low irradiation temperature (up to 451.5°C), dislocation loops formed in all samples, with the density and the average size of dislocation loops in the order of 1022 – 1023 m-3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively. The loop densities in alloy 800H were higher than that in alloy 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SNL will be able to provide well-calibrated models to weapons systems analysts by integrating an engine for constitutive model calibration with the GRANTA materials database

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have integrated the GRANTA materials database with the MatCal calibration engine to calibrate material models from characterization data. GRANTA is gaining acceptance across the NNSA Tri-lab complex and is being populated with weapons-specific test data by Sandia experimentalists. To use that data to create material models for use by weapons systems analysts, MatCal has been enabled import calibration data and test conditions from GRANTA to quickly and reproducibly produce a calibrated set of parameters for a given constitutive model. The team is currently working to store the parameters characterizing material behavior in GRANTA to make them accessible by all weapons analysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Data-driven Platform for Subsurface Energy Production

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Specification for Select Experiments Conducted at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Thermal Stratification Test Facility

The Department of Energy (DOE)-Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) supported the creation and operation of the Thermal Stratification Test Facility (TSTF) at the University of Wisconsin Madison (UWM) as part of a larger effort to understand thermal stratification behavior in liquid-metal-cooled reactors. The TSTF was designed to simulate transients in a reactor plenum that are known to cause thermal stratification. High-reliability and high-resolution measurements of the flow and temperature were collected for use as experimental benchmarks to support validation efforts for computational models. The results of these tests contribute to the greater understanding of thermal stratification behavior of liquid sodium under various configurations and operating conditions. The six TSTF tests selected for benchmarking are a set of forced circulation tests at a fixed flow rate with different Upper Internal Structure (UIS) configurations in the test section (no UIS, solid UIS, and a UIS with flow area of 4, 8, 12, and 100%). This report provides a complete description of the benchmark problems, including all key test facility details, descriptions of each test condition, and measured data for comparison with modeled results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutron spectral measurements at the BNL NSLS-II synchrotron facility

During the first week of August 2022, Tim Gildea of Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (LANL) RP-SVS group performed a series of neutron spectral measurements at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) 3GeV facility located at Brookhaven National Lab (BNL)1 . These measurements were conducted under Memorandum Purchase Order (MPO) 413911 with the objective of gaining an accurate understanding of the photoneutron fields generated under normal and selected fault conditions. The spectral data collected during the course of the study was analyzed at LANL and the results form the basis of this report.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2022

NREL's bottom-up cost models can be used to assess the minimum sustainable price (MSP) and modeled market price (MMP) of PV and storage systems having various configurations. MSP can be used to estimate future potential cost-reduction opportunities for PV and PV-plus-storage systems, thus helping guide research and development aimed at advancing cost-effective system configurations. MMP can be used to understand the cost of systems under recent market conditions. The MSP data in this annual benchmarking report will be used to inform the formulation of, and track progress toward, the Solar Energy Technologies Office's Government Performance and Reporting Act cost targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

W-4 W88 Systems Engineering Summer 2023 Project [Slides]

The purpose is to create a simple, streamlined process to produce reports on out of tolerance conditions with CMM data. The methods are to develop the code or process within MATLAB to import the data (import tool can be used) and to develop the code to be able to plot the data of interest. The end states are to use MATLAB to analyze CMM data from the PA and document the process for a user with some knowledge of MATLAB and an engineering background.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Implicit Approach to Phase Field Modeling of Solidification for Additively Manufactured Alloys [Slides]

We are leveraging modern algorithms and computational science to provide a route to predictive simulation of microstructure evolution on emerging exascale architectures. We are utilizing the fastest supercomputers in the world for modeling and simulation of microstructure evolution for generation of data under AM conditions. Solidification conditions in AM can be tailored for the reliable design of materials to specific performance requirements. Developing computational tools to further characterize alloys and correlate the processing-structure-properties-performance (PSPP) relationship.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methodological guidelines on concrete degradation based on predictive models and the release of MOSAIC for industry use

In light-water reactors (LWRs), the concrete biological shield (CBS) designates the concrete structure directly facing the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The primary function of the CBS is to protect equipment and personnel from the neutron and gamma radiation exiting the RPV. Most CBSs in operation in the United States also provide structural support to the RPV. Based on a long-term structural analysis, the structural integrity of the CBS to transfer the in-service passive load to the foundation, dynamic loading during an earthquake, and thermal loading during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) must be maintained. Based on test reactor data for accelerated conditions, the mechanical properties of irradiated concrete are affected when exposed to neutron fluence higher than ≈ 10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV). At 80 years of operation, the fluence estimates at the surface of the CBS range between 1×10 19 and 7×10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV): the fluence value depends mostly on the design. Although fluence attenuates through the CBS by virtue of the shielding properties of concrete, about 5% to 10% of the CBS wall depth is affected by high fluence. The main degradation mechanism is the so-called radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) caused by the amorphization of aggregate-forming minerals. RIVE causes large deformation of up to 18% in pure quartz, and it also reduces the structural properties of concrete. The structural effects of long-term exposure to fast neutron irradiation in LWRs was studied in the report entitled “Assessment of the Effect of the Irradiation-Induced Degradation on the In-Service Structural Performance of the Concrete Biological Shields” (M3LW-23OR0403013). This report illustrates that (1) irradiation-induced damage expands further than the region subject to a cumulative fluence of 10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV) to reach the steel reinforcement location, and (2) the irradiation-induced damage region shows no substantial residual bearing capacity and should not be accounted for in the integrity assessment of the CBS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-Dalhousie Field Campaign Report

This project supported the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), which aimed to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific coastal region of La Jolla, California. Given the frequent anthropogenic aerosols emitted into this region, characterization of this important coastal cloud region and the aerosol impact on the cloud characteristics will improve the understanding of aerosol indirect effects and its representation in global climate models. This specific project deployed the fog droplet monitor (FM-120, Droplet Measurement Technologies) at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Mt. Soledad site from 16 February 2023 to 15 February 2024. This instrument measured droplet number size spectra between 2 and 50 microns, from which droplet number concentration, liquid water content, and effective diameter were calculated. These measurements will be used to characterize the seasonal variability of clouds at Mt. Soledad and investigate differences in cloud properties under regional polluted and clean marine conditions. The collected data will soon be posted as part of the digital collection for EPCAPE data hosted by the University of California, San Diego (Russell et al. 2023).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗