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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Fractal analysis of Venus topography in Tinatin Planitia and Ovda Regio

A one-dimensional fractal analysis is applied to Magellan altimetry data for two 20 x 20 deg equatorial regions on Venus. For the Ovda Regio, highlands the power spectra of the altimetry data correlate well with power law (fractal) statistics over the full range of wavelengths considered 36-703 km; the mean fractal dimension is D(Ovda) = 1.64. For the Tinatin Planitia lowlands, the power spectra consistently show a rollover at long wavelengths, (greater than 200 km), the long-wavelength topography in this region either never developed or has subsequently relaxed. The mean of the best fit fractal dimension for Tinatin is D(Tinatin) = 1.41. The measure of roughness (RA) correlates well with variations in relief, especially at short wavelengths (about 50 km). The quantitative analysis of Venus topography can be applied on a global scale. The one-dimensional method can be extended to two-dimensional space, yielding two-dimensional maps of regional D and RA, allowing a more complete use of regional two-dimensional altimetry data.

Kucinskas, Algis B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique pattern of interaction with the visual environment. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as a piloting an aircraft, where activities with distinct visual signatures might be things like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these hypothetical activities. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as delta. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration delta, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to integer counts by multiplying by delta divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. The method has been applied to approximately 100 hours of eye movement data collected from pilots in a high-fidelity B747 flight simulator, and the results have been compared to synthetic data in which the each activity is represented as first-order Markov process with random probabilities assigned to the AOIs. Randomly-generated synthetic activities can require thousands of fixations to be discriminated with statistical significance, while the human data can be clustered using averaging windows of some 10's of seconds, suggesting that the actual activities are much more narrowly focused than random Markov models.

activity analysis↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Applied Sciences' DEVELOP National Program: Summer 2010 Florida Agriculture

The main agricultural areas in South Florida are located within the fertile land surrounding Lake Okeechobee. The Atlantic Watershed monthly rainfall anomalies showed a weak but statistically significant correlation to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). No other watershed s anomalies showed significant correlations with ONI or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During La Nina months, less sea breeze days and more disturbed days were found to occur compared to El Nino and neutral months. The increase in disturbed days can likely by attributed to the synoptic pattern during La Nina, which is known to be favorable for tropical systems to follow paths that affect South Florida. Overall, neither sea breeze rainfall patterns nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida s main agricultural areas were found to be strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation during our study time.

Cooley, Zachary C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Computational simulation of the creep-rupture process in filamentary composite materials

A computational simulation of the internal damage accumulation which causes the creep-rupture phenomenon in filamentary composite materials is developed. The creep-rupture process involves complex interactions between several damage mechanisms. A statistically-based computational simulation using a time-differencing approach is employed to model these progressive interactions. The finite element method is used to calculate the internal stresses. The fibers are modeled as a series of bar elements which are connected transversely by matrix elements. Flaws are distributed randomly throughout the elements in the model. Load is applied, and the properties of the individual elements are updated at the end of each time step as a function of the stress history. The simulation is continued until failure occurs. Several cases, with different initial flaw dispersions, are run to establish a statistical distribution of the time-to-failure. The calculations are performed on a supercomputer. The simulation results compare favorably with the results of creep-rupture experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Slattery, Kerry T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing tension metrics with dark energy survey and Planck data

ABSTRACT Quantifying tensions – inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments – has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the dark energy survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 3 × 2pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in ∼2.3σ tension under the ΛCDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Light-Element Reactions in the Resolved Resonance Region

Light-element reactions at low energies in the resolved resonance region are important for a range of applications in basic and applied sciences including nuclear reactors, nonproliferation, cultural heritage, forensics and environmental control, rare event investigations and nuclear astrophysics. In this paper, we report on an effort to evaluate charged-particle cross sections in the resolved resonance region and produce evaluated nuclear data files for further processing and inclusion in evaluated data libraries. We discuss the open issues in R-matrix calculations as we extend to higher energies, such as dealing with the rapidly growing number of open channels and merging with the regime of smooth cross sections described by the statistical model, and present attempts to address these issues in neutron-induced reactions relevant to nuclear reactor applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey II: measurements in Fourier space with optimal weights

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}^\mathrm{local} $from the clustering of 343 708 quasars with redshifts 0.8 < z < 2.2 distributed over 4808 deg2 from the final data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), the largest volume spectroscopic survey up to date. Our analysis is performed in Fourier space, using the power spectrum monopole at very large scales to constrain the scale-dependent halo bias. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis pipeline with EZ-mock catalogues that simulate the eBOSS DR16 target selection. We carefully assess the impact of systematics on our measurement, exploiting a novel neural network scheme for cleaning the DR16 sample as well as test multiple contamination removal methods. We estimate the bias due to the overcorrection of the systematic removal to be sub-dominant compared to the statistical uncertainty. We find fNL = −12 ± 21 (68 per cent confidence) for the main clustering sample including quasars with redshifts between 0.8 and 2.2, after applying redshift weighting techniques, designed for non-Gaussianity measurement from large scales structure, to optimize our analysis, which improve our results by 37 per cent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient method for estimation of fission fragment yields of $\textit{r}$-process nuclei

Background: More than half of all the elements heavier than iron are made by the rapid neutron capture process (or $\textit{r}$ process). For very-neutron-rich astrophysical conditions, such at those found in the tidal ejecta of neutron stars, nuclear fission determines the $\textit{r}$-process endpoint, and the fission-fragment yields shape the final abundances of 110 ≤ $\textit{A}$ ≤ 170 nuclei. The knowledge of fission-fragment yields of hundreds of nuclei inhabiting very-neutron-rich regions of the nuclear landscape is thus crucial for the modeling of heavy-element nucleosynthesis. Purpose: In this study, we propose a model for the fast calculation of fission-fragment yields based on the concept of shell-stabilized prefragments defined with help of the nucleonic localization functions. Methods: To generate realistic potential-energy surfaces and nucleonic localizations, we apply Skyrme density-functional theory. In this work, the distribution of the neck nucleons among the two prefragments is obtained by means of a statistical model. Results: We benchmark the method by studying the fission yields of 178 Pt, 240 Pu, 254 Cf, and 254,256,258 Fm and show that it satisfactorily explains the experimental data. We then make predictions for 254 Pu and 290 Fm as two representative cases of fissioning nuclei that are expected to significantly contribute during the $\textit{r}$-process nucleosynthesis occurring in neutron-star mergers. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient alternative to microscopic approaches based on the evolution of the system in a space of collective coordinates all the way to scission. It can be used to carry out global calculations of fission-fragment distributions across the $\textit{r}$-process region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying concordance of correlated cosmological data sets

We develop estimators of agreement and disagreement between correlated cosmological data sets. These account for data correlations when computing the significance of both tensions and excess confirmation while remaining statistically optimal. We discuss and thoroughly characterize different approaches commenting on the ones that have the best behavior in practical applications. We complement the calculation of their statistical distribution within the Gaussian model with one estimator that takes non-Gaussianities fully into account. To illustrate the use of our techniques, we apply these estimators to supernovae measurements of the distance-redshift relation, absolutely calibrated by the local distance ladder. The suite of best estimators that we discuss finds results that are in excellent agreement between estimators and find no indications of significant internal inconsistencies in this data set above the 1% probability threshold. Furthermore, this shows the robustness of local determinations of the Hubble constant to features in the distance-redshift relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydropower Biological Evaluation Toolset Best Practice Guide

Field studies using live fish are necessary for the evaluation of turbine biological performance, but they cannot determine the specific hydraulic conditions or physical stresses experienced by the fish, the locations where deleterious conditions occur, or the specific causes of the biological response. Using the Sensor Fish (SF) sensing technology, this deficiency can be overcome because the SF can be released independently or concurrently with live fish directly into operating infrastructure, and it takes high-frequency measurements of hydraulic conditions such as pressure, acceleration, and rotation acting on a body in situ during downstream passage. The Hydropower Biological Evaluation Tools (HBET; Hou et al. 2018) software package, developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), is designed to assemble, organize, and process data collected by the PNNL-developed SF and by live fish. HBET was developed specifically to design SF field studies, process the raw data, and analyze the processed data efficiently and scientifically. Its objectives are to facilitate SF studies focused on characterizing hydraulic conditions and to apply SF data for evaluating the impacts on fish from passage through hydro-structures. HBET allows users to design new studies, analyze data, perform statistical analyses, and evaluate predicted biological responses. It can be used by researchers, turbine designers, hydropower operators, and regulators to evaluate hydro-structures to enhance environmental sustainability in a cost-effective manner.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Adaptive line by line encoder for image transmission.

A simple adaptive algorithm is applied to the line by line encoding of images. Among its desirable properties the algorithm includes a control of encoding errors independently of the image statistics. This block transform encoder, because of its adaptive nature gives rise to nonstationary errors and end of block effects. Two methods are proposed to reduce these effects and thus improve the subjective quality of reconstructed images. The performance of the algorithm is image dependent and several illustrative examples are given.

Algazi, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The HST quasar absorption line key project. 9: An emission-line study of PG 2251+113

We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and quasi-simultaneous ground-based observations of the z = 0.3252 QSO PG 2251+113. We find a correlation between line widths and the critical density for de-excitation of the forbidden emission lines observed in this object. We can show that this correlation also applies to the semiforbidden and possibly also the permitted lines which arise in the broad emission-line region. While this result was predicted from statistical studies, it has never previously been shown to hold in detail in any individual object. This relationship between the narrow and broad emission-line regions may help constrain dynamical models of both regions. We examine the implications of this result for a simple radial infall model of the emitting gas developed to explain the origin of narrow-line profiles.

Espey, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗
NASA NTRS2002

Artificial Aging Effects on Cryogenic Fracture Toughness of the Main Structural Alloy for the Super Lightweight Tank

In 1996, Marshall Space Flight Center developed a multistep heating rate-controlled (MSRC) aging technique that significantly enhanced cryogenic fracture toughness (CFT) and reduced the statistical spread of fracture toughness values in alloy 2195 by controlling the location and size of strengthening precipitate T1. However, it could not be readily applied to flight-related hardware production, primarily because large-scale production furnaces are unable to maintain a heating rate of 0.6 C (1 F)/hr. In August 1996, a new program was initiated to determine whether the MSRC aging treatment could be further modified to facilitate its implementation to flight hardware production. It was successfully redesigned into a simplified two-step aging treatment consisting of 132 C (270 F)/20 hr + 138 C (280 F)/40 hr. Results indicated that two-step aging can achieve the same yield strength levels as those produced by conventional aging while providing greatly improved ductility. Two-step aging proved to be very effective at enhancing CFT, enabling previously rejected materials to meet simulated service requirements. Cryogenic properties are improved by controlling T1 nucleation and growth so that they are promoted in the matrix and suppressed in the subgrain boundaries.

Chen, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Workload Characterization of CFD Applications Using Partial Differential Equation Solvers

Workload characterization is used for modeling and evaluating of computing systems at different levels of detail. We present workload characterization for a class of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) applications that solve Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). This workload characterization focuses on three high performance computing platforms: SGI Origin2000, EBM SP-2, a cluster of Intel Pentium Pro bases PCs. We execute extensive measurement-based experiments on these platforms to gather statistics of system resource usage, which results in workload characterization. Our workload characterization approach yields a coarse-grain resource utilization behavior that is being applied for performance modeling and evaluation of distributed high performance metacomputing systems. In addition, this study enhances our understanding of interactions between PDE solver workloads and high performance computing platforms and is useful for tuning these applications.

Waheed, Abdul↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quantitative Thermochemical Measurements in High-Pressure Gaseous Combustion

We present our strategic experiment and thermochemical analyses on combustion flow using a subframe burst gating (SBG) Raman spectroscopy. This unconventional laser diagnostic technique has promising ability to enhance accuracy of the quantitative scalar measurements in a point-wise single-shot fashion. In the presentation, we briefly describe an experimental methodology that generates transferable calibration standard for the routine implementation of the diagnostics in hydrocarbon flames. The diagnostic technology was applied to simultaneous measurements of temperature and chemical species in a swirl-stabilized turbulent flame with gaseous methane fuel at elevated pressure (17 atm). Statistical analyses of the space-/time-resolved thermochemical data provide insights into the nature of the mixing process and it impact on the subsequent combustion process in the model combustor.

Kojima, Jun J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗