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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

(Project 18-15502) Reducing Uncertainty in Radionuclide Transport Prediction Using Multiple Environmental Tracers (Final Report)

In order to successfully site and design a nuclear waste disposal facility, DOE scientists are required to show safe containment of the radioactive waste for up to 1 million years. A significant hurdle to accurately and convincingly demonstrating disposal safety is predicting the fate of radioactive elements once they enter the groundwater system surrounding the repository. These predictions are often made with computer models, which contain accurate physics of groundwater movement and chemical reactions that occur during groundwater flow. As computer power increases, the physics and chemistry of these computer simulators can become more and more realistic and the physically based error decreases. However, the ability of these computer models to provide accurate predictions in a specific place, over long time periods, requires the scientists and engineers to know the subsurface properties of the Earth that control groundwater movement. In particular, groundwater scientists and engineers need to know the groundwater fluid velocity, which can change over time and strongly vary with location within the groundwater system. Because the Earth’s subsurface cannot be directly seen, and can only be sampled at drilling locations, the properties of the groundwater system are never known completely, and computer models of groundwater transport will always have some amount of uncertainty. This project’s principal goal was to use chemicals and isotope “tracers”, which have been introduced to the groundwater system by natural processes over long time periods, to help inform computer models of the groundwater velocity and subsurface properties. The goal was to calculate how much better predictions of groundwater transport were when these “tracers” were used to inform the computer models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state thermal hydraulic analyses. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as MITR-II. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model common fabrication parameters and other key reactor analysis uncertainties required for research and test reactor thermal hydraulic analyses. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux or departure from nucleate boiling or onset of flow instability; but additional margin is obtained by basing the limiting safety settings on avoiding onset of nucleate boiling. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one lateral stripe of a fuel element. The stripes run the length of the fuel, from the bottom to the top. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each element in the core.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

5-10 Years Cross-cutting Priorities on the Topic of Nuclear Data Covariances and Uncertainty Quantification for Users

The goal of this meeting was to draft a whitepaper on prioritized nuclear data covariance and uncertainty quantification needs impacting users for the next 5 to 10 years. These needs are described herein in an actionable context (i.e., a high-level plan is given to address them), and are feasible for the community to tackle the need (i.e., high-level idea of funding is provided). It should be noted that each of these proposed projects are ideal for training new nuclear data evaluators who are also integrated into application needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Spectroscopy Based On-Line, Real-Time Monitoring to Reduce Composition Uncertainties: Enhanced sensitivity through optimization of Raman Parameters

Optical spectroscopy-based on-line monitoring of Hanford processing streams can enable real-time characterization of chemical composition of process streams and batches, ultimately enabling and enhancing process control. It can provide immediate feedback on process conditions and has the potential to reduce the needed number of grab sample collections, thereby reducing times and costs associated with laboratory processing. Here we discuss the utilization of Raman spectroscopy to quantify multiple target analytes that are common within Hanford tanks and waste processing streams. Analytes include: nitrate, nitrite, carbonate, chromate, sulfate, phosphate, hydroxide, oxalate, ammonia, and aluminate. Most notably in this work, Raman applications to low-concentration streams are explored and optimized. Raman instrument specifications are compared; specifically, the impact of utilizing three different Raman excitation wavelengths, 405, 532, and 671 nm, is discussed. Also, Raman data collection parameters such as collection time and spectral averaging are measured and discussed. Finally, optical libraries of chemical targets were collected using optimized collection parameters and chemometric models were built to automate quantification of chemical targets. These models were validated through application to simulants and real Hanford process samples. Chemometric models performed well on both training and validation sets, suggesting these approaches can be successfully applied to on-line and real-time monitoring of low concentration Hanford processing streams. The use of the combine Raman wave lengths with the enhanced chemometric models for the low concentration streams significantly improved the chemical detection levels and significantly reduced uncertainties of those measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detector Related Uncertainties in ICARUS

Neutrinos are hard to study. Cosmic Rays are easier, so they can be used to understand the detector. The ratio of the Monte Carlo simulations and the experimental data gives insights into uncertainties stemming from the detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

UQ4QM: Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Materials (Chemical Dynamics Initiative Final Report)

The Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Materials (UQ4QM) LDRD project focused on developing solutions for strategic two project areas the Chemical Dynamics Initiative (CDi) Use Case 3. This included data-driven approaches toward understanding heterogeneous data, such as multi-fidelity data or data with unknown spatial or temporal perturbations. The applications were varied but the project aims pursued solutions which were amenable to common UQ approaches in order to maximize impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the Nomenclature Around Uncertainty [Slides]

This presentation finds that defining the marginal probability density function (PDF) for nuclear data is important. Additionally, the vocabulary of “means and covariances” and new GNDS 2.0 formats are limited to Gaussian (normal) representations— always incorrect—but clearly of practical significance when uncertainties are large (>40%). Finally, the Triage Solution: declare our current data as containing best estimate (mode) plus variance for a truncated normal or lognormal.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainties in ICARUS

This paper explores the challenges in neutrino detection and emphasizes the importance of understanding the ICARUS neutrino detector. It delves into the use of cosmic rays to bridge the gap between experimental and theoretical data, offering insights into the behavior of different components of neutrino detectors. This procedure sheds light on the intricate aspects of cosmic ray detection in ICARUS, contributing to an increased understanding of how this detector's uncertainties operate. More can be learned about neutrino physics in future experiments through this understanding.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Interaction Uncertainties on Neutrino-Nucleus Cross Section Measurements

Accelerator-based neutrino facilities represent forefront scientific endeavors, employing state-of-the-art techniques to investigate the properties of neutrinos and unveil signals of physics beyond the standard model. Neutrino-nucleus interactions constitute one of the biggest systematics in these experiments. As neutrino-nucleus cross section measurement statistics have started to surge in recent years, it's becoming vital to control systematics in these measurements. This presentation explores the pivotal role of neutrino interaction uncertainties, including nuclear effects and modeling approximations, in achieving precise neutrino cross-section measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Monolithic Tungsten Target Block Fatigue

The current STS spallation target design consists of 21 water cooled, tantalum clad, monolithic tungsten blocks. The target wheel assembly rotates such that each target block receives a direct proton pulse every 1.4 seconds (21 blocks / 15 Hz pulses). The quasi-steady heating induced by the repetitive beam pulses creates a significant mean stress distribution in the target. On top of this, the rapid energy deposition from a proton pulse induces dynamic stress waves that are of the same order of magnitude as the mean stresses. Over the design goal of 5,000 operational hours per year for a decade, each target must withstand over 130 million repetitions of these dynamic stress events. The fatigue life prediction of the target blocks is a complex sequence of simulations that depend upon a set of input parameters. For the tungsten block, the end goal is the fatigue factor-of-safety (FOS). This study documents a new structural analysis routine using software available to U.S. national laboratories (e.g. CUBIT, Sierra Multiphysics, Dakota) that enables more rapid target fatigue analysis. The increased throughput is amenable to parameter sensitivity and uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of input parameters (ultimate strength, fatigue strength, density, elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, thermal conductivity, coefficient of thermal expansion, specific heat, flow rate) with expected ranges are documented based on literature data, recent experimental testing, and engineering judgement. UQ bounds the resulting fatigue FOS at [0.5, 3.4] using epistemic interval analysis. These bounds are expected to be wider due to model effects (discretization) and beam effects (focus, offset) that were not included. Parameter sensitivity underscores the importance of ultimate strength and fatigue strength of irradiated tungsten on the fatigue calculations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Flux Isotope Reactor Uncertainty Factors

This report provides a brief summary of the uncertainty factors used for High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) steady-state heat transfer analyses. These factors are mainly used in the HFIR Steady-State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) to perform core thermal margin evaluations that determine safe reactor operation. The attempt to classify these factors stems from the assumption that the current approach is characterized by an excess of conservatism, thereby restricting reactor performance. The work documented herein was of a limited scope and pertained mainly to factors’ description and initial grouping based on their functional use. Suggestions are provided for further evaluation for the low-enriched uranium (LEU) to the uranium silicide dispersion fuel (U 3 Si 2 -Al).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-conformity Scores for High-Quality Uncertainty Quantification from Conformal Prediction

High-quality uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical component of enabling trust in deep learning (DL) models and is especially important if DL models are to be deployed in high-consequence applications. Conformal prediction (CP) methods represent an emerging nonparametric approach for producing UQ that is easily interpretable and, under weak assumptions, provides a guarantee regarding UQ quality. This report describes the research outputs of an Exploratory Express Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. This project focused on how best to implement CP methods for DL models. This report introduces new methodology for obtaining high-quality UQ from DL models using CP methods, describes a novel system of assessing UQ quality, and provides experimental results that demonstrate the quality of the new methodology and utility of the UQ quality assessment system. Avenues for future research and discussion of potential impacts at Sandia and in the wider research community are also given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) Code Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Electron Number Albedo in Various Materials

In the 1970’s and 1980’s, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories produced electron albedo data for a range of materials. Since that time, the electron albedo data has been used for a wide variety of purposes including the validation of Monte Carlo electron transport codes. This report was compiled to examine the electron albedo experiment results in the context of Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) validation. The report presents tables and figures that could provide insight into the underlying model form uncertainty present in the ITS code. Additionally, the report provides data on potential means to reduce these model form errors by highlighting potential refinements in the cross-section generation process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yttrium solid phase equation of state with uncertainty quantification

We discuss the development of an equation of state (EOS) for solid yttrium up to roughly 80 GPa. The EOS makes use of different experimental datasets, including measurements of the isobaric density, isobaric specific heat, room temperature isotherm, and principal shock Hugoniot. The fitting procedure is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), where we fit model parameters for both the cold curve and ion thermal models simultaneously. The results show close agreement with experimental data and provide meaningful uncertainty estimates on the model parameters. This work serves as a first step towards a multiphase EOS for yttrium, which will include higher pressure solid phases (> 80 GPa), as well as modeling of the liquid phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty, and Surrogates, and CCSI2 Toolset Capabilities

This poster will present key features and capabilities of the CCSI2 software platform to relevant technical and research audience members at the 2024 FECM / NETL Carbon Management Research Project Review Meeting. Attendees will learn about available process models in the CCSI2 Toolset, as well as design of experiments and machine learning features in the Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty, and Surrogates (FOQUS) software to support pilot plant work.

Paul, Brandon↗