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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Feature extraction of multispectral data

A method is presented for feature extraction of multispectral scanner data. Non-training data is used to demonstrate the reduction in processing time that can be obtained by using feature extraction rather than feature selection.

Crane, R. B.↗

Spin prediction techniques

The NASA Langley Research Center has the responsibility to advance the state-of-the-art in the area of stall/spin technology. This includes the development and validation of experimental and analytical techniques for the prediction of stall/spin characteristics. As a part of this effort, a rotary balance facility located in the Langley spin tunnel was developed two and a half years ago to rapidly identify an airplane's aerodynamic characteristics in a rotational flow environment. On-line rotary balance data plots and on-line predicted steady spin modes permit the designer to develop, on site, a configuration highly resistant to spins, or one which has good spin characteristics, i.e., no spin equilibrium conditions possible with lateral-directional controls neutral, if the airplane is to be used for acrobatic maneuvers or training. The rotary balance data are also used to compute time histories of a spin's incipient, developed, and recovery phases. These spin analysis techniques and their correlation with spin tunnel model and full-scale flight results are discussed herein.

Bihrle, W., Jr.↗

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes): A New Ozonesonde Data Set for the Earth Science Community

In the past several years, new tropical tropospheric ozone data products have been developed from TOMS and other satellites. Global chemical-transport models have been developed for interpretation of satellite data and to predict future ozone levels in the troposphere and stratosphere. However, the lack of ozone profile measurements for validation and evaluation of these data sets and models is critical in regions like the tropics. In 1998 NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, in partnership with NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab) and other nations, began a 2-year project to collect weekly ozonesonde measurements at southern hemisphere tropical sites and make the data available to the scientific community at a single electronic location: http://code9lQ.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data services/Shadoz/shadoz hmpq2.htmi A summary of data from the SHADOZ sites will be presented: Ascension Island, Fiji, Tahiti, Galapagos, American Samoa, Natal (Brazil), Reunion Island, Watukosek (Java), Nairobi and Irene, South Africa. SHADOZ is designed to meet other needs: (1) Provide the first climatology of tropical ozone along the equatorial zone for the wave-one pattern in total ozone; (2) Supplement field project observations. (3) Guide algorithm development for future satellite instruments; (4) Train scientists and educators in southern hemisphere tropical locations. From time to time, intensive tropical campaigns are making data available to SHADOZ. Data from the first half of 1999 will include INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment), SOWER (Stratospheric Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region) at Christmas Island (2N, 157W), and a cruise from Norfolk, Virginia to Cape Town and Mauritius on NOAA's RN 'Ronald H Brown.'

Witte, J. C.↗

Interoperability Trends in Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Space Operations for the 21st Century

No other space operations in the 21 st century more comprehensively embody the challenges and dependencies of interoperability than EVA. This discipline is already functioning at an W1paralleled level of interagency, inter-organizational and international cooperation. This trend will only increase as space programs endeavor to expand in the face of shrinking budgets. Among the topics examined in this paper are hardware-oriented issues. Differences in design standards among various space participants dictate differences in the EVA tools that must be manufactured, flown and maintained on-orbit. Presently only two types of functional space suits exist in the world. However, three versions of functional airlocks are in operation. Of the three airlocks, only the International Space Station (ISS) Joint Airlock can accommodate both types of suits. Due to functional differences in the suits, completely different operating protocols are required for each. Should additional space suit or airlock designs become available, the complexity will increase. The lessons learned as a result of designing and operating within such a system are explored. This paper also examines the non-hardware challenges presented by interoperability for a discipline that is as uniquely dependent upon the individual as EVA. Operation of space suits (essentially single-person spacecrafts) by persons whose native language is not that of the suits' designers is explored. The intricacies of shared mission planning, shared control and shared execution of joint EVA's are explained. For example, once ISS is fully functional, the potential exists for two crewmembers of different nationality to be wearing suits manufactured and controlled by a third nation, while operating within an airlock manufactured and controlled by a fourth nation, in an effort to perform tasks upon hardware belonging to a fifth nation. Everything from training issues, to procedures development and writing, to real-time operations is addressed. Finally, this paper looks to the management challenges presented by interoperability in general. With budgets being reduced among all space-faring nations, the need to expand cooperation in the highly expensive field of human space operations is only going to intensify. The question facing management is not if the trend toward interoperation will continue, but how to best facilitate its doing so. Real-world EVA interoperability experience throughout the ShuttlelMir and ISS Programs is discussed to illustrate the challenges and

Miller, Gerald E.↗

Next-generation Strategies for Human Lunar Sorties

The science community has had success in remote field experiences using two distinctly different models for humans-in-the-loop: the Apollo Science Support team (science backroom), and the robotic exploration of Mars. In the Apollo experience, the science team helped train the crew, designed geologic traverses, and made real-time decisions by reviewing audio and video transmissions and providing recommendations for geologic sampling. In contrast, the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) and Mars Science Lab (MSL) missions have been conducted entirely robotically, with significant time delays between science- driven decisions and remote field activities. Distinctive operations methods and field methodologies were developed for MER/MSL [1,2] because of the reliance on the "backroom" science team (rather than astronaut crew members) to understand the surroundings. Additionally, data are relayed to the team once per day, giving the team many hours or even days to assimilate the data and decide on a plan of action.

Cohen, B. A.↗

A Structured, Model-Based Systems Engineering Methodology for Operations System Design

Two widely accepted techniques for lowering the cost and risk of developing systems are (1) the use of a defined systems engineering (SE) process or methodology and (2) the reuse of existing (previously built) system components. The first technique is represented, for example, in materials published by NASA (e.g., NASA Systems Engineering Handbook) or by professional societies such as INCOSE (International Council on Systems Engineering). Well-formed SE techniques provide value by establishing the proper scope of the system (e.g., requirements), and by identifying and resolving problems relatively early in project lifecycles, when fixes are less expensive. The second technique (reuse) is applied most commonly to hardware and software; it seeks to avoid replicating design and implementation costs while also reducing risk by placing proven capabilities into operational use. In this paper, we outline a methodology combining these two techniques and extending reuse beyond hardware and software to foundational aspects of a Mission Operation System’s (MOS) design. We describe the system design artifacts that result (e.g., requirements, design documentation), as well as the reusable patterns and elements of the design, and their interrelationships. This approach is enabled by model-based systems engineering (MBSE) techniques and tools and is currently available in SysML form as a plug-in to MagicDraw. Additionally, usage of a rigorous MBSE approach allows for training materials and tutorials to be packaged within the overall model itself. The results of such an approach include decreased cost and risk during the design phase, improved ability of the MOS development team to investigate trade spaces and identify impacts to important flight-ground trade studies. Such results extend into decreased costs and risk in later phases due to improved design, decreased need for late fixes or development of "glue-ware" or scripts to fill unanticipated gaps in functionality, and improved ability to identify and plan testing and other validation activities. Finally, lower operational costs can be expected, both due to improved quality of the MOS, increased ease of maintaining updated knowledge of system configuration, and the fact that training and procedural materials are also updated at the same time as accepted system changes.

Bindschadler, Duane L.↗

An Automated Approach to Labelling Datasets in Earth Science Publications

NASA Data Active Archive Centers, orDAACs, ingest, store, and distribute dataacquired from satellites, ground systems as well asreanalysis models. Many authors use this datain their research. However, most of the datasets usedin Earth Science Publications are not citedcorrectly or not cited at all. Thus, there is no directlink between the datasets used and thescientific publications which reference them. Thisleads to issues with reproducibility of theresults, attribution of the research results, anddiscovery of new datasets. This project began byexploring various methods of automatically labellingGoddard Earth Sciences Data andInformation Services Center (GES DISC) datasets usingSupervised Machine Learning and EarthData Search Common Metadata Repository (CMR) queries.The ultimate goal was to create alibrary of citations that utilized automated citationlabeling to directly link the researchpublications to the data they use. Supervised MachineLearning approaches struggled due to thelimited amount of labelled training data to learnfrom. Increasing the volume of training data isdifficult as it requires subject matter experts todevote time to manually reviewing journalarticles and determining the datasets used. The CMRqueries were inconsistent because theunderlying metadata is continuously being updated.Thus, it is hard to generalize theeffectiveness of the CMR results as they are dependenton the internal state of CMR. Theseapproaches helped inform the decision to transitionthe project into using a Knowledge Graph.Another key aspect of this project focused on theautomated extraction of features (platform,instrument, variables, etc) and explicit citationsfrom within Earth Science Publications. Theseautomated extractions were used to classify researchpapers based on their platform/instrumentcouples. This information was input into the CitationManagement System for GES DISC. Theseplatform/instrument couples also provide an additionalfacet that can be searched on the GESDISC website.

Edward Jahoda↗

The State of NOS3

The NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3) showcases some of the Jon McBride Software Testing and Research (JSTAR) laboratories technologies on an open-source platform. NOS3 is a software digital twin providing a virtualized platform inside which you have your traditional flight software, ground software, environmental simulators, and middleware to keep all pieces in sync. NOS3 leverages the core Flight System (cFS), OpenC3 COSMOS, and NASA GSFC’s 42 software as the baseline to which additional research technologies can be developed. Current technologies to be demonstrated include NOS3 Igniter, constellation support, NASA JPL’s SYNOPSIS integration, and NASA GSFC’s OnAir. NOS3 Igniter is a GUI in which you can configure, build, and run your simulation. This along with improvements to the documentation and training available open source aims to reduce the ramp up time with new users and improve accessibility. As constellations introduce another level of complexity, it is important to ensure the baseline design reference mission covers all the basics required and allows users to experiment, understand, and test at all levels of the system. The Science Yield improvement via Onboard Prioritization and Summary of Information Systems (SYNOPSIS) is an open-source tool developed by NASA JPL to enable data prioritization and planning. GSFC’s Onboard Artificial Intelligence Research (OnAIR) enables custom algorithm development written in python to interface with the flight software allowing scientists to develop what they need for the next generation of missions and easily interface back to the traditional flight software. During the presentation, a review and demonstration of the above technologies is planned along with a roadmap.

NOS3↗

Lunar Browser Utilization of Machine Learning for Trajectory Solution Production

This paper describes the application of machine learning tools to produce Earth-Moon spacecraft trajectories with applications to NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) and Artemis Human Landing System (HLS) programs. Existing trajectory solutions are used to train and test machine learning models to predict essential details of a trajectory sequence from Earth-launch to Low-Lunar Orbit, populating a database of solutions with future launch dates. The machine learning model will implement hyperparameter optimization for further re-training to improve model performance. Accurate predictive models decrease the time required to produce solutions and are readily implemented in the Lunar Browser tool.

Trajectory Design↗

A Systematic Evidence Based Performance Approach to Regulation of Nuclear Sites in England and Wales - 20058

The Environment Agency for England has developed a systematic evidence-based approach to pursue our strategic environmental objectives for the regulation of nuclear sites. We use an annual evidence review process to ensure effective and efficient targeting of limited resources to achieve those objectives. Over the last 8 years, we have been developing and refining this approach to ensure risk-based and value driven regulation. The approach comprises nuclear site and nuclear sector review processes known as Site Environment Review (SER) and Nuclear Environment Review (NER). This approach complements our regulation of nuclear site permit holders under the Environmental Permitting Regulations (EPR). We deliver our regulation of nuclear sites in England and Wales alongside the Office for Nuclear Regulation. The SER process involves the lead regulator for each nuclear site assessing the permit holder's environmental performance across 14 themes, set within the context of the site's main activities and associated waste disposals. Our themes include environmental leadership, resources and climate change, radioactive waste management, facility management and decommissioning, groundwater, and environmental radiological protection. We use evidence from site inspections and working within our subject matter groups to grade current and predicted future environmental performance. We are particularly interested in sustainability and the application of Best Available Techniques (BAT) to prevent the creation, and minimise the disposal, of radioactive wastes. We use risk analysis (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) to examine performance against our strategic environmental objectives, which are set out, in our 5-year Nuclear Delivery Plan (NDP). The output supports the targeting of our resources at each nuclear site. We consult the relevant permit holders on the SER priorities and use their feedback to refine our plans. We expect all permit holders to take account of our priorities when considering their own programmes of work, objectives and plans. The NER process brings together what we learn and achieve through regulation across the sector. It provides input to planning priorities, supported by qualitative and semi-quantitative evidence. It covers the 28 nuclear sites in England and Wales and spans the same 14 environmental themes. During the process we collate, compile and summarise evidence from the SERs and other sources such as inspection reports and evidence from our other nuclear work programmes. The output is the NER annual report. This provides a snapshot of the status of the nuclear sector and gives insights to enable us to regulate more efficiently and effectively. It also takes account of cross-cutting issues and risks such as changes in international standards, domestic policy, regulatory framework, domestic standards and guidance, learning from experience such as incidents, events and good practice, and innovation, research and development. It provides graphics that illustrate the grading of environmental performance for the nuclear sector across the fourteen environmental themes. This analysis allows benchmarking of nuclear site's environmental performance and the visualisation provides a convenient comparison of performance across themes, sites, and over time. We use this intelligence to inform our investment in training and development of our staff, and our cross-cutting engagement on strategic issues with government, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and other corporate organisations. Adopting this approach can provide benefits with organisational reputation, stakeholder participation and ensuring value from the public investment. This paper describes the history of the SER/NER process, a selection of outputs from the process and ideas for improvement. The paper will be of interest to other regulators and organisations across the world that are interested in supporting continuous improvement. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A physics-informed and hierarchically regularized data-driven model for predicting fluid flow through porous media

This paper presents a new deep learning data-driven model for predicting structure dependent pore-fluid velocity fields in rock. The model is based on a Convolutional Auto-Encoder (CAE) artificial neural network capable of learning from image data generated by direct numerical simulations of fluid flow through pore-structures, such as by Lattice Boltzmann or molecular dynamics methods. The main novelty of the model in comparison to previous CAE-based data-driven approaches consists of three parts. The first is a methodology for decomposing the full-domain of the porous media into sub-regions, or “sub-domains”, in order to reduce the overall size of the CAE, batch process the sub-domains in parallel, and enable the CAE to learn local and generalizable nonlinear mappings of pore-fluid velocities. The second consists of embedding the finite difference solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes and continuity equations into convolutional layers prior to the CAE in order to provide the CAE with knowledge of fluid dynamics physics (PhyFlow). The third main novelty is that the training of the CAE is regularized with a hierarchical loss function that encourages the learning of fluid flow patterns (in a way similar to ranked modes in principal component analysis), ranking from most to least important. This is shown to increase the stability in learning, reduce over-fitting, and promote interpretability of the CAE neural network layers (HierCAE). The comprehensive new data-driven model, which we call the PhyFlow-HierCAE model, is shown to exhibit improved accuracy and generalizability of flow field predictions over conventional CAE models, attributable to the embedded physical knowledge and the hierarchical regularization, as well as realize orders of magnitude speed-ups in computation times as a surrogate for the direct numerical simulations. Examples of training and forward predictions on unseen pore-structures are provided and evaluated for data from Lattice Boltzmann and molecular dynamics simulations of pore-fluid flow. The model is shown to be a fast and accurate emulator (or “surrogate”) for predicting effective permeability of unseen pore-structures based on learning from relatively small direct numerical simulation datasets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Recreation Embedded State Tuning for Optimal Readiness and Effectiveness (RESTORE)

Physiological self-regulation training is a behavioral medicine intervention that has demonstrated capability to improve psychophysiological coping responses to stressful experiences and to foster optimal behavioral and cognitive performance. Once developed, these psychophysiological skills require regular practice for maintenance. A concomitant benefit of these physiologically monitored practice sessions is the opportunity to track crew psychophysiological responses to the challenges of the practice task in order to detect shifts in adaptability that may foretell performance degradation. Long-duration missions will include crew recreation periods that will afford physiological self-regulation training opportunities. However, to promote adherence to the regimen, the practice experience that occupies their recreation time must be perceived by the crew as engaging and entertaining throughout repeated reinforcement sessions on long-duration missions. NASA biocybernetic technologies and publications have developed a closed-loop concept that involves adjusting or modulating (cybernetic, for governing) a person's task environment based upon a comparison of that person's physiological responses (bio-) with a training or performance criterion. This approach affords the opportunity to deliver physiological self-regulation training in an entertaining and motivating fashion and can also be employed to create a conditioned association between effective performance state and task execution behaviors, while enabling tracking of individuals psychophysiological status over time in the context of an interactive task challenge. This paper describes the aerospace spin-off technologies in this training application area as well as the current spin-back application of the technologies to long-duration missions - the Recreation Embedded State Tuning for Optimal Readiness and Effectiveness (RESTORE) concept. The RESTORE technology is designed to provide a physiological self-regulation training countermeasure for maintaining and reinforcing cognitive readiness, resilience under psychological stress, and effective mood states in long-duration crews. The technology consists of a system for delivering physiological self-regulation training and for tracking crew central and autonomic nervous system function; the system interface is designed to be experienced as engaging and entertaining throughout repeated training sessions on long-duration missions. Consequently, this self-management technology has threefold capability for recreation, behavioral health problem prophylaxis and remediation, and psychophysiological assay. The RESTORE concept aims to reduce the risk of future manned exploration missions by enhancing the capability of individual crewmembers to self-regulate cognitive states through recreation-embedded training protocols to effectively deal with the psychological toll of long-duration space flight.

Pope, Alan T.↗

Deep learning closure models for large-eddy simulation of flows around bluff bodies

Near-wall flow simulation remains a central challenge in aerodynamics modelling: Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes predictions of separated flows are often inaccurate, and large-eddy simulation (LES) can require prohibitively small near-wall mesh sizes. A deep learning (DL) closure model for LES is developed by introducing untrained neural networks into the governing equations and training in situ for incompressible flows around rectangular prisms at moderate Reynolds numbers. The DL-LES models are trained using adjoint partial differential equation (PDE) optimization methods to match, as closely as possible, direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. They are then evaluated out-of-sample – for aspect ratios, Reynolds numbers and bluff-body geometries not included in the training data – and compared with standard LES models. The DL-LES models outperform these models and are able to achieve accurate LES predictions on a relatively coarse mesh (downsampled from the DNS mesh by factors of four or eight in each Cartesian direction). We study the accuracy of the DL-LES model for predicting the drag coefficient, near-wall and far-field mean flow, and resolved Reynolds stress. A crucial challenge is that the LES quantities of interest are the steady-state flow statistics; for example, a time-averaged velocity component $\langle {u}_i\rangle (x) = \lim _{t \rightarrow \infty } ({1}/{t}) \int _0^t u_i(s,x)\, {\rm d}s$ . Calculating the steady-state flow statistics therefore requires simulating the DL-LES equations over a large number of flow times through the domain. It is a non-trivial question whether an unsteady PDE model with a functional form defined by a deep neural network can remain stable and accurate on $t \in [0, \infty )$ , especially when trained over comparatively short time intervals. Our results demonstrate that the DL-LES models are accurate and stable over long time horizons, which enables the estimation of the steady-state mean velocity, fluctuations and drag coefficient of turbulent flows around bluff bodies relevant to aerodynamics applications.

Mechanics↗

Generating Control Commands From Gestures Sensed by EMG

An effort is under way to develop noninvasive neuro-electric interfaces through which human operators could control systems as diverse as simple mechanical devices, computers, aircraft, and even spacecraft. The basic idea is to use electrodes on the surface of the skin to acquire electromyographic (EMG) signals associated with gestures, digitize and process the EMG signals to recognize the gestures, and generate digital commands to perform the actions signified by the gestures. In an experimental prototype of such an interface, the EMG signals associated with hand gestures are acquired by use of several pairs of electrodes mounted in sleeves on a subject s forearm (see figure). The EMG signals are sampled and digitized. The resulting time-series data are fed as input to pattern-recognition software that has been trained to distinguish gestures from a given gesture set. The software implements, among other things, hidden Markov models, which are used to recognize the gestures as they are being performed in real time. Thus far, two experiments have been performed on the prototype interface to demonstrate feasibility: an experiment in synthesizing the output of a joystick and an experiment in synthesizing the output of a computer or typewriter keyboard. In the joystick experiment, the EMG signals were processed into joystick commands for a realistic flight simulator for an airplane. The acting pilot reached out into the air, grabbed an imaginary joystick, and pretended to manipulate the joystick to achieve left and right banks and up and down pitches of the simulated airplane. In the keyboard experiment, the subject pretended to type on a numerical keypad, and the EMG signals were processed into keystrokes. The results of the experiments demonstrate the basic feasibility of this method while indicating the need for further research to reduce the incidence of errors (including confusion among gestures). Topics that must be addressed include the numbers and arrangements of electrodes needed to acquire sufficient data; refinements in the acquisition, filtering, and digitization of EMG signals; and methods of training the pattern- recognition software. The joystick and keyboard simulations were chosen for the initial experiments because they are familiar to many computer users. It is anticipated that, ultimately, interfaces would utilize EMG signals associated with movements more nearly natural than those associated with joysticks or keyboards. Future versions of the pattern-recognition software are planned to be capable of adapting to the preferences and day-today variations in EMG outputs of individual users; this capability for adaptation would also make it possible to select gestures that, to a given user, feel the most nearly natural for generating control signals for a given task (provided that there are enough properly positioned electrodes to acquire the EMG signals from the muscles involved in the gestures).

Wheeler, Kevin R.↗

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

SMD↗