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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Multiwell Fiber Optic Sensing Reveals Effects of CO2 Flow on Triggered Seismicity

Induced seismicity is one of the main risks for gigaton-scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (⁠CO 2 ⁠). Thus, passive seismic monitoring is often recommended as a necessary component of the monitoring systems for CO 2 storage projects, with a particular forcus on risk mitigation. We present the first field study, CO2CRC Otway Project Stage 3 (Victoria, Australia), where distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enabled high-precision tracking of the induced seismicity triggered by a small CO 2 injection and also informed the reservoir models. In 610 days of passive seismic monitoring of the Stage 3 injection, we detected 17 microseismic events (maximum moment magnitude Mw 0.1) using five deep boreholes equipped with enhanced-sensitivity optical fiber. The DAS array has sensitivity sufficient for detection and location of induced events with M w ~ ₋2 in a monitoring borehole located up to 1500 m away. Thanks to the dense spatial sampling by the DAS, we were able to estimate the focal mechanisms for events with M w > ₋1.5; although the monitoring boreholes provided very limited angular coverage. The main cluster of the events has the same location and source mechanism as the one triggered by the previous CO 2 injection at the Otway Project site, Stage 2C. Surprizingly, the Stage 2C and Stage 3 events closely followed the actual movement of the CO 2 saturation plume front (not the pressure front), as observed using controlled-source reflection seismic images. The nature of the plume-fault interaction remains unclear, but some alteration of the fault gouge by CO 2 might be responsible for the faults’ reactivation by the pressure perturbation. Importantly, the seismogenic fault could not be identified in the seismic images and was only revealed by DAS observations, which also demonstrated the signature of fluid–rock interaction, that may control the CO 2 flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Elucidating algal-bacterial community interactions by tracking volatile biomarkers (Final Report)

This feasibility study project aimed to lay further groundwork for studying and understanding how microorganisms interact with each other at the molecular level using model algal-bacterial co-cultures. A better understanding of such interactions is critical to optimizing and operating biotic platforms for a number of applications, including bioenergy, algal bioproducts and agriculture, and carbon capture. Here we explored the feasibility of characterizing and following these interactions by identifying and tracking volatile metabolites and biomarkers in the complex gaseous headspace of such cultures. We set up an experimental platform using a co-culture of Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Marinobacter subspecies 3-2 as a model system, used solid-phase microextraction fibers for volatile collection at various time points throughout culture growth, and employed gas chromatography mass spectrometry-based instrumentation available at LLNL for compound identification and quantification. We found that it is feasible to determine volatile profiles from the growth of Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Marinobacter subspecies 3-2 using our methodology and monitor profile changes over time. We also observed that volatiles distinguishing between cultures of the individual species and the co-cultures could be detected. We expect that results of this project will feed into the ongoing LLNL’s DOE BER funded Biofuels Scientific Focus Area (SFA) on algal-bacterial interactions and pave the way for future expanded volatile studies supported by DOE. The approach and technologies developed here would also be applicable and transferable to other microbial communities under study, such as cyanobacteria, rhizosphere communities and biofilms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of Bio-Compatible Fluorescent Sensor

The development for biocompatible fluorescent sensors is used to understand the movement and fracking of wild boar at SRS. Current fracking methods for wild boar include physical tagging, camera monitoring, and foot tracks in the soil. None of these methods are highly effective in determining the path and habits of the animals as it depends on live imaging, soil consistency (lack of rain), and potentially a gps system is tagged properly. This system allows fracking using an additive digested by the animal and released in the urine that will fluoresce when excited with a particular laser. This method helps determine the actual movements of the animals and even provide a potential prediction model based on their routine. We partnered with Ft. Gordon to utilize their animal testing expertise in determining the best material and pathway for these materials to be excreted.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

ACES: Infrastructure As Code. Model Optimization and Performance Capability

Infrastructure as Code (IaC) refers to managing infrastructure (networks, physical/virtual machines, storage, and connection topology) in a descriptive model/language, rather than configuring it manually or using interactive configuration tools. Just like source code can be compiled to generate the same binary code, IaC enables generating the same environment every time it is applied. IaC is a key DevOps practice and is generally used in conjunction with continuous integration (CI) and continuous delivery (CD). In CI, all code changes are merged into a mainline branch and validated multiple times a day as developers check in their changes to the source code. In CD on the other hand, code changes are automatically packaged for a new release-to-production on a regular basis. This typically enables teams to deliver software changes much more quickly and often. Developing and managing the ACES platform using (IaC) is vital for the robust deployment and continued sustainment of this foundational computing capability. IaC and DevOps practices will help us solve many of the common challenges often encountered in developing and maintaining compute infrastructure. First, it will make the provisioning, deployment, and maintenance of the compute infrastructure across multiple environments much more efficient. Second, these processes help make the overall system much more stable by continuously testing new changes as they are introduced to the system. Third, it allows us to be much more confident of the security controls in place since they can be tested as part of the CI process and all new changes can be audited and tracked. Finally, IaC enables the ACES Platform to be adaptable to the emerging technologies due to its ability to spin up different test beds to evaluate and incorporate these technologies. This document addresses common infrastructure-management challenges, describes what happens if they are not addressed, and highlights the value of utilizing IaC to tackle them. Finally, we will provide a high-level overview of the IaC and DevOps practices being utilized by the ACES Platform team.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Intelligent Process Visualization through Nuclear Operation Process Modeling, Reasoning, and Object Detection from Field Videos (Final Report)

This report is a deliverable for the “Final Report” task of DOE NEET Project 19-16790, "Context-Aware Safety Information Display for Nuclear Field Workers." This project's overall goal is to test the hypothesis that integrating computer vision and process reasoning methods will enable proactive visualization of the safe operation and maintenance processes of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) for field workers. Augmented Reality (AR) glasses adopting such proactive safety information visualization techniques can significantly increase personnel safety and reduce the NPP’s operating costs. The current practice of monitoring NPPs requires workers to switch between digital models, data, and physical workspaces in identifying relevant but potentially occluded objects and in assessing the risks of operation and maintenance processes. On the other hand, frequently changed field conditions require field workers to report to supervisors for real-time guidance. Such guidance is essential to ensure that changing conditions will not invalidate or endanger the work order and other ongoing processes that may jeopardize NPP operations. Additionally, incorrect recognition of equipment objects can result in communication errors and safety problems. AR techniques can assist engineers in viewing the physical workspaces with objects labeled with detailed operation procedures and safety reminders during field operations. The project team developed an “Intelligent Context-Aware Safety Information Display” (ICAD) for supporting Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) field workers in achieving safe and efficient execution of a series of operational tasks in uncertain and changing workspaces of an NPP. Before designing the ICAD-AR prototype, the project team synthesized NPP operational knowledge models through literature review studies, surveys, interviews with domain experts, and knowledge modeling. The project team conducted an extensive study of the operational procedures of various NPPs, and digital technologies that can support the safe and efficient execution of those procedures in different NPP operational contexts. This literature review helped the project team conduct surveys and interviews with nuclear engineers and field workers to identify three categories of information. The NPP knowledge modeling efforts reveal that the three categories of information identified have different levels of importance in a typical procedure of carrying out a series of tasks to achieve a specific NPP operation goal (e.g., shutdown, mode changes). These three categories of information include 1) Workspace dynamics – the changing spatial arrangements of workspaces, tools, protection equipment, and supporting materials, 2) Workflow prognostics – the dynamic dependencies between different parts of an NPP that functionally support and influence each other in terms of safety and efficiency, and 3) Hazards – objects and spaces that contain hazardous materials or physical conditions that can pose risks to workers or mechanical systems. The project team has profiled the importance levels of these categories of information into a knowledge model. This knowledge model specifies what types of information are more critical for a given task in a given workspace so that computers can automatically identify critical objects and sensors in a scene for delivering context-ware safety information to field workers through AR devices. Significant research development of this project results in technical research outcomes and a prototyping system that illustrates the technical feasibility of establishing an ICAD-AR system supporting the proactive safety information display for nuclear field workers. This final report summarizes the project team’s technological achievements in the past three years. Overall, the project team completed the development and integration of five techniques into a prototype ICAD Augmented Reality (ICAD-AR) system and demonstrated the developed system’s real-time execution in a mechanical room. The project team completed the analysis of using this prototype in other types of workspaces based on 3D image data and digital design models collected from two additional workspaces (a water treatment plant and a flow loop training facility). The integrated techniques include 1) Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms supporting the generation and updates of nuclear fieldwork process models based on text analysis of work packages and operation manuals; 2) sensor log analysis for predicting control actions in given sensor reading contexts; 3) computer vision algorithms for automatic localization and navigation of workers; 4) object detection algorithms for identifying task-related objects and correlated sensors for safety checking; 5) AR technique as a platform for supporting the integration. The testing results of these five techniques have shown that 1) the sensor log analysis model can predict the next control action with an accuracy of 0.883; 2) the trained natural language processing model can extract more than 80% of the critical information from paper-based procedures (PBPs); 3) the navigation algorithm with the integration of Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) and Non-Recursive Bayesian Filter methods make operator’s trajectory estimation resilient to drift error; 4) the computer vision algorithm can detect task-specific and safety-critical objects with an average accuracy of 95.3%. The project team used work procedures collected from a flow loop training facility and two datasets collected from two mechanical rooms simulating the workspaces of NPPs to demonstrate the technical capabilities of the developed ICAD-AR prototype. The demonstration validated the technical feasibility of establishing the ICAD-AR system for nuclear field workers and identified the challenges in 1) automatic text analysis of work packages; 2) use of limited samples of sensor logs for predicting the proper timings of control actions; 3) reliably tracking workers and their task progress in mechanical rooms with many similar objects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality in Recently Constructed U.S. Homes: Measured Data From Select Southeastern States

Little data is available that quantifies IAQ or associates contaminant levels with air exchange in U.S. homes. To address this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building America Program conducted a study to characterize IAQ in U.S. homes constructed since 2013, along with presence, functionality, and occupant use of control measures. Specific objectives of this study effort included: Measuring time-integrated concentrations and temporal profiles of established contaminants of concern; monitoring the use of ventilation equipment; and tracking activities that impact air pollutant emissions and removal processes in typical homes in various climate zones; Characterizing the prevalence, type, and installed performance of mechanical ventilation equipment in new homes; exploring regional variations in system designs and performance; Investigating associations between contaminant levels and the presence of control measures including whole-house mechanical ventilation (WHMV). The study engaged research teams to collect data at a regional level. This report introduces the study protocol and presents and discusses high-level results obtained from Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) data collection efforts in the southeastern U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model

Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geothermal play fairway analysis, part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TIC 278956474: Two Close Binaries in One Young Quadruple System Identified by TESS

We have identified a quadruple system with two close eclipsing binaries in Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. The object is unresolved in Gaia and appears as a single source at parallax 1.08 ± 0.01 mas. Both binaries have observable primary and secondary eclipses and were monitored throughout TESS Cycle 1 (sectors 1–13), falling within the TESS Continuous Viewing Zone. In one eclipsing binary (P = 5.488 days), the smaller star is completely occluded by the larger star during the secondary eclipse; in the other (P = 5.674 days) both eclipses are grazing. Using these data, spectroscopy, speckle photometry, spectral energy distribution analysis, and evolutionary stellar tracks, we have constrained the masses and radii of the four stars in the two eclipsing binaries. The Li i equivalent width indicates an age of 10–50 Myr and, with an outer period of 858{sub −5}{sup +7} days, our analysis indicates this is one of the most compact young 2 + 2 quadruple systems known.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reversible long-range domain wall motion in an improper ferroelectric

Reversible ferroelectric domain wall movements beyond the 10 nm range associated with Rayleigh behavior are usually restricted to specific defect-engineered systems. Here, we demonstrate that such long-range movements naturally occur in the improper ferroelectric ErMnO 3 during electric-field-cycling. We study the electric-field-driven motion of domain walls, showing that they readily return to their initial position after having traveled distances exceeding 250 nm. By applying switching spectroscopy band-excitation piezoresponse force microscopy, we track the domain wall movement with nanometric spatial precision and analyze the local switching behavior. Phase field simulations show that the reversible long-range motion is intrinsic to the hexagonal manganites, linking it to their improper ferroelectricity and topologically protected structural vortex lines, which serve as anchor point for the ferroelectric domain walls. Our results give new insight into the local dynamics of domain walls in improper ferroelectrics and demonstrate the possibility to reversibly displace domain walls over much larger distances than commonly expected for ferroelectric systems in their pristine state, ensuring predictable device behavior for applications such as tunable capacitors or sensors.

Zahn, Manuel [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Techn↗

Robust Adaptive Control for Large-scale Inverter-based Resources with Partial and Complete Loss of Inverters

This article proposes an approach to address the current and the aggregated active power control challenge for large-scale inverter-based resources subjected to partially or completely loss of inverters and grid voltage variations. To address this problem, a distributed active power mechanism is proposed which generates desired inverters current. Then an adaptive mechanism distributes the voltage control input automatically between inverters in response to the partial or complete loss of inverters. An L2-gain-based controller is designed for each inverter to track the desired current and rejects the grid voltage disturbance. Here, simulation results show a significant robust tracking for collective active power and current.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Accelerating the Lagrangian Particle Tracking in Hydrologic Modeling to Continental-Scale

Unprecedented climate change and anthropogenic activities have induced increasing ecohydrological problems, which have motivated the development of large-scale modeling for solutions. Water age/quality is as important as water quantity for understanding the water cycle. However, current scientific progress in tracking water parcels at large-scale with high spatiotemporal resolutions is far behind that in water balance/quantity owing to the lack of powerful tools. EcoSLIM is a particle tracking model that works with the hydrologic model ParFlow-CLM, which couples surface-subsurface hydrology with land surface processes. Here, we demonstrate a parallel framework to accelerate EcoSLIM to continental-scale on a distributed, multi-GPU platform with CUDA-Aware MPI. In tests from catchment-, to regional-, and then to continental-scale using 25-million to 1.6-billion particles, EcoSLIM shows significant speedup and excellent parallel performance. The parallel framework is portable to atmospheric and oceanic particle tracking models, where parallelization is inadequate and a standard parallel framework is absent. Parallelized EcoSLIM is a promising tool to accelerate our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the upscaling of subsurface hydrology to Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-dimensional charge density wave in the dual heavy fermion system UPt 2 Si 2

Heavy fermion liquids offer via their Kondo lattice diverse possibilities for exotic ground states. Using variable-temperature atomic pair distribution function analysis, we study the local atomic structure of the "dual" heavy fermion liquid UPt 2 Si 2 , which exhibits antiferromagnetism consistent with localized 5f-electron states and transport properties characteristic to itinerant 5f-"spd" hybridized electron systems. We show that UPt 2 Si 2 exhibits periodic lattice distortions (PLDs) involving both uranium and platinum atoms that are characteristic to three-dimensional charge density waves. Here, the temperature evolution of the PLDs tracks that of the transport and magnetic properties, suggesting the presence of little-known 5f-electron-lattice interactions. We argue that PLDs in heavy fermion liquids in general, and in particular in UPt 2 Si 2 , appear as new degrees of freedom that entangle competing electronic states and, as such, must be accounted for when their rich physics is considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CFD simulations of electric motor end ring cooling for improved thermal management

Proper thermal management of an electric motor for vehicle applications extends its operating range. One cooling approach is to impinge Automatic Transmission Fluid (ATF) onto the rotor end ring. Increased ATF coverage correlates to enhanced heat transfer. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analytical tools provide a mechanism to assess motor thermal management prior to hardware fabrication. The complexity of the fluid flow (e.g., jet atomization, interface tracking, wall impingement) and heat transfer makes these simulations challenging. Computational costs are high when solving these flows on high-speed rotating meshes. Typically, a Volume-of Fluid (VOF) technique (i.e., two-fluid system) is used to resolve ATF dynamics within this rotating framework. Suitable numerical resolution of the relevant physics for thin films under strong inertial forces at high rotor speeds is computationally expensive, further increasing the run times. In this work, a numerical study of rotor-ring cooling by ATF is presented using a patent automated Cartesian cut-cell based method coupled with Automatic Mesh Refinement (AMR). This approach automatically creates the Cartesian mesh on-the-fly and can effectively handle complex rotating geometries by adaptively refining the mesh based on local gradients in the flow field which results in better resolution of the air-ATF interface. A Single non-inertial Reference Frame (SRF) approach is used to account for the rotating geometry and to further improve the overall computational efficiency. Quasi-steady state conditions are targeted in the analysis of the results. Important physics such as ATF jet structure, velocity detail near the air-jet interface, ATF coverage/accumulation on the ring surface, and cooling capacity are presented for a low-resolution Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), high-resolution RANS, and high-resolution Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) models. Computations are scaled over hundreds of cores on a supercomputer to maximize turnaround time. Each numerical approach is shown to capture the general trajectory of the oil jet prior to surface impingement. The high-resolution LES simulation, however, is superior in capturing small scale details and heat transfer between the free jet and surrounding air.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MEGASIM: Lifetimes and Resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids—The Death of Primordial ETAs?

Abstract We present an analysis of lifetimes and resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids (ETAs) in the MEGASIM data set. Trojan asteroids co-orbit the Sun with a planet, but remain bound to the Lagrange points, L4 (60° leading the planet) or L5 (60° trailing). In the circular three-body approximation, the stability of a Trojan asteroid depends on the ratio of the host planet mass and the central mass. For the inner planets, the range of stability becomes increasingly small, so perturbations from the planets have made primordial Trojans rare. To date, there have been just two ETAs (2010 TK 7 and 2020 XL 5 ), several Mars Trojans, and a Venus Trojan discovered. The estimated lifetimes of the known inner system Trojans are shorter than a million years, suggesting they are interlopers rather than members of a stable and long-lasting population. With the largest ETA n -body simulation to date, we are able to track their survival across a wide initialized parameter space. We find that the remaining fraction of ETAs over time is well fit with a stretched exponential function that, when extrapolated beyond our simulation run time, predicts zero ETAs by 2.33 Gyr. We also show correlations between ETA ejections and the periods of the Milankovitch cycles. Though Earth’s orbital dynamics dominate the instabilities of ETAs, we provide evidence that ETA ejections are linked to resonances found in the variation of the orbital elements of many if not all of the planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Safe Operations at Roadway Junctions: Intelligent Roadway Infrastructure as Functional Interlocking

Automated vehicle (AV) technology is quickly maturing, and the corresponding infrastructure systems that evaluate traffic and communicate to vehicles requires sophisticated sensing and perception technologies, referred to as intelligent roadway infrastructure (IRI), to complement emerging AV capabilities. IRI provides signals to vehicles, indicating right-of-way for vehicles and communicating to approaching AVs that no other vehicle is failing to yield. This capability, denoted as safety-affirmative signaling, provides a green light or a green arrow as appropriate and affirms through communication links to connected vehicles when it is safe to proceed. About 36% of collisions occur at intersections, with most occurring upon left turns (22.2%) or crossing over (12.6%), and only a small percentage (1.2%) while turning right at an intersection. Of all intersection crashes about half (52.5%) of those vehicles were traveling through a signalized intersection 2. Safety-affirmative signaling would guarantee safety of AV fleet vehicles, by providing the interlocking principle, a term from automated train control that only allows progression through a railway intersection after affirming no opportunity for a crash exists. IRI through safety-affirmative signaling would bring performance and safety to complex roadway intersections where AV transit fleet service is most needed, as well as safety benefits to traditional, non-automated vehicles and vulnerable road users. The implementation of IRI has functional, programmatic, and technical challenges. Research work performed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in an integrative approach encapsulating these themes, and termed infrastructure perception and control (IPC) is motivated by improved performance (travel time), improved safety (reduced collisions), and improved energy efficiency (less fuel burned and minimized production of greenhouse gases). IPC is intended not only for roadway and intersection applications but also in extension to inform complementary buildings and grid systems to enable better co-management, as vehicles and their charging needs become increasingly integrated into the built environment. The NREL IPC project presents an open-source framework, architecture, and supporting technology to implement IRI, addressing critical issues such as fusion of data, reliability, standardization of data interfaces, and confidence of detection. The framework is informed by previous experience in U.S. Department of Defense research technology, specifically in the use of radar to detect, identify, and track aerial threats. These principles combined with multi-sensor fusion provides for a complete digital twin with known and measurable confidence and accuracy from which safety-affirmative signaling can be developed and deployed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗