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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Modeling Atmosphere-Ocean Radiative Transfer: A PACE Mission Perspective

The research frontiers of radiative transfer (RT) in coupled atmosphere-ocean systems are explored to enable new science and specifically to support the upcoming Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission. Given (i) the multitude of atmospheric and oceanic constituents at any given moment that each exhibits a large variety of physical and chemical properties and (ii) the diversity of light-matter interactions (scattering, absorption, and emission), tackling all outstanding RT aspects related to interpreting and/or simulating light reflected by atmosphere-ocean systems becomes impossible. Instead, we focus on both theoretical and experimental studies of RT topics important to the science threshold and goal questions of the PACE mission and the measurement capabilities of its instruments. We differentiate between (a) forward (FWD) RT studies that focus mainly on sensitivity to influencing variables and/or simulating data sets, and (b) inverse (INV) RT studies that also involve the retrieval of atmosphere and ocean parameters. Our topics cover (1) the ocean (i.e., water body): absorption and elastic/inelastic scattering by pure water (FWD RT) and models for scattering and absorption by particulates (FWD RT and INV RT); (2) the air-water interface: variations in ocean surface refractive index (INV RT) and in whitecap reflectance (INV RT); (3) the atmosphere: polarimetric and/or hyperspectral remote sensing of aerosols (INV RT) and of gases (FWD RT); and (4) atmosphere-ocean systems: benchmark comparisons, impact of the Earth's sphericity and adjacency effects on space-borne observations, and scattering in the ultraviolet regime (FWD RT). We provide for each topic a summary of past relevant (heritage) work, followed by a discussion (for unresolved questions) and RT updates.

Chowdhary, Jacek↗

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spin-orbit density wave induced hidden topological order in URu2Si2

The conventional order parameters in quantum matters are often characterized by ‘spontaneous’ broken symmetries. However, sometimes the broken symmetries may blend with the invariant symmetries to lead to mysterious emergent phases. The heavy fermion metal URu2Si2 is one such example, where the order parameter responsible for a second-order phase transition at Th517.5 K has remained a long-standing mystery. Here we propose via ab-initio calculation and effective model that a novel spin-orbit density wave in the f-states is responsible for the hidden-order phase in URu2Si2. The staggered spin-orbit order spontaneously breaks rotational, and translational symmetries while time-reversal symmetry remains intact. Thus it is immune to pressure, but can be destroyed by magnetic field even at T 5 0 K, that means at a quantum critical point. We compute topological index of the order parameter to show that the hidden order is topologically invariant. Finally, some verifiable predictions are presented.

MATERIALS PHYSICS↗

Surface tension of spherical drops from surface of tension

The determination of surface tension of curved interfaces is a topic that raised many controversies during the last century. Explicit liquid-vapor interface modelling (ELVI) was unable up to now to reproduce interfacial behaviors in drops due to ambiguities in the mechanical definition of the surface tension. In this work, we propose a thermodynamic approach based on the location of surface of tension and its use in the Laplace equation to extract the surface tension of spherical interfaces from ELVI modelling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗

Semiclassical approaches to nuclear dynamics

The extended Gutzwiller trajectory approach is presented for the semiclassical description of nuclear collective dynamics, in line with the main topics of the fruitful activity of V.G. Solovjov. Within the Fermi-liquid droplet model, the leptodermous effective surface approximation was applied to calculations of energies, sum rules, and transition densities for the neutron–proton asymmetry of the isovector giant-dipole resonance and found to be in good agreement with the experimental data. By using the Strutinsky shell correction method, the semiclassical collective transport coefficients, such as nuclear inertia, friction, stiffness, and moments of inertia, can be derived beyond the quantum perturbation approximation of the response function theory and the cranking model. The averaged particle-number dependences of the low-lying collective vibrational states are described in good agreement with the basic experimental data, mainly due to the enhancement of the collective inertia as compared to its irrotational flow value. Shell components of the moment of inertia are derived in terms of the periodic-orbit free-energy shell corrections. A good agreement between the semiclassical extended Thomas–Fermi moments of inertia with shell corrections and the quantum results is obtained for different nuclear deformations and particle numbers. Shell effects are shown to be exponentially dampted out with increasing temperature in all the transport coefficients.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity

Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility is a desirable property of scientific discovery. Yet seemingly science also progresses despite irreproducible results, indicating that the relationship between reproducibility and other desirable properties of scientific discovery is not well understood. These properties include early discovery of truth, persistence on truth once it is discovered, and time spent on truth in a long-term scientific inquiry. We build a mathematical model of scientific discovery that presents a viable framework to study its desirable properties including reproducibility. In this framework, we assume that scientists adopt a model-centric approach to discover the true model generating data in a stochastic process of scientific discovery. We analyze the properties of this process using Markov chain theory, Monte Carlo methods, and agent-based modeling. We show that the scientific process may not converge to truth even if scientific results are reproducible and that irreproducible results do not necessarily imply untrue results. The proportion of different research strategies represented in the scientific population, scientists’ choice of methodology, the complexity of truth, and the strength of signal contribute to this counter-intuitive finding. Important insights include that innovative research speeds up the discovery of scientific truth by facilitating the exploration of model space and epistemic diversity optimizes across desirable properties of scientific discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating Interface Growth and Defect Generation in CZT – Simulation State of the Art and Known Gaps

This one-year, study topic project will survey and investigate the known state-of-the-art of modeling and simulation methods suitable for performing fine-scale, fully 3-D modeling, of the growth of CZT crystals at the melt-solid interface, and correlating physical growth and post-growth conditions with generation and incorporation of defects into the solid CZT crystal. In the course of this study, this project will also identify the critical gaps in our knowledge of modeling and simulation techniques in terms of what would be needed to be developed in order to perform accurate physical simulations of defect generation in melt-grown CZT. The transformational nature of this study will be, for the first time, an investigation of modeling and simulation methods for describing microstructural evolution during crystal growth and the identification of the critical gaps in our knowledge of such methods, which is recognized as having tremendous scientific impacts for future model developments in a wide variety of materials science areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence: May 2-3, 2018 Workshop Summary

In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Learning Operators for Structure-Informed Surrogate Models

This report summarizes the work performed under the author's two-year John von Neumann LDRD project, which involves the non-intrusive surrogate modeling of dynamical systems with remarkable structural properties. After a brief introduction to the topic, technical accomplishments and project metrics are reviewed including peer-reviewed publications, software releases, external presentations and colloquia, as well as organized conference sessions and minisymposia. The report concludes with a summary of ongoing projects and collaborations which utilize the results of this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development and Assessment of CTFFuel

This milestone report documents an approach that seeks to develop a standalone fuel solver to simulate steady-state and transient thermo-mechanical responses of light-water reactor fuel rods and assess its temperature predictions against analytical solutions, and a well-known and validated fuel performance code. This manuscript focuses on five major topics: (1) development of the CTFFuel, (2) discussion of the newly implemented fuel deformation models in dynamic gap conductance model of CTFFuel, (3) enabling the dynamic gap conductance model in VERA-CS, (4) verification of the solid conduction solution and comparison of the CTFFuel with respect to the workhorse code, CTF, and (5) benchmark of the thermal conductivity degradation using the burnup dependent fuel thermal conductivity models and benchmark of the fuel centerline temperature using the dynamic gap conductance model with Halden measurements and FRAPCON-4.0 simulation results. CTFFuel temperature predictions are compared to predictions from FRAPCON-4.0 for UO 2 , UO 2 +Gd 2 O 3 and MOX fuels through reactor’s life. The main motivation is to understand discrepancies between CTFFuel and FRAPCON-4.0’s temperature predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-driven Explosions of Stripped High-mass Stars: Synthetic Light Curves and Spectra of Stripped-envelope Supernovae with Broad Light Curves

Stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe) represent a significant fraction of core-collapse supernovae, arising from massive stars that have shed their hydrogen and, in some cases, helium envelopes. The origins and explosion mechanisms of SESNe remain a topic of active investigation. In this work, we employ radiative-transfer simulations to model the light curves and spectra of a set of explosions of single, solar-metallicity, massive Wolf–Rayet stars with ejecta masses ranging from 4 to 11 M ⊙ , which were computed from a turbulence-aided and neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. We analyze these synthetic observables to explore the impact of varying ejecta mass and helium content on observable features. We find that the light curve shape of these progenitors with high ejecta masses is consistent with observed SESNe with broad light curves but not the peak luminosities. The commonly used analytic formula based on rising bolometric light curves overestimates the ejecta mass of these high-initial-mass progenitor explosions by a factor of up to 2.6. In contrast, the calibrated method by Haynie et al., which relies on late-time decay tails, reduces uncertainties to an average of 20% within the calibrated ejecta mass range. Spectroscopically, the He I 1.083 μm line remains prominent even in models with as little as 0.02 M ⊙ of helium. However, the strength of the optical He I lines is not directly proportional to the helium mass but instead depends on a complex interplay of factors such as the 56 Ni distribution, composition, and radiation field. Thus, producing realistic helium features requires detailed radiative transfer simulations for each new hydrodynamic model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ion velocity distributions in the high-latitude ionosphere

The theory and observations relating to ion velocity distributions in the high-latitude F region are reviewed. The review covers three basic aspects, including methods for calculating ion velocity distributions, experimental evidence for the existence of non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions, and the ionospheric consequences of non-Maxwellian distributions. Specific topics covered include closed form solutions to Boltzmann's equation for a simple collision model, series solutions to the Boltzmann equation for more general collision models, retarding potential analyzer measurements, excitation of VLF electrostatic emissions, ion-neutral reaction rates, and transport effects.

St-Maurice, J.-P.↗

Compact galactic X-ray sources; Proceedings of the Workshop, Washington, D.C., April 20, 21, 1979

The current status and future prospects regarding the study of compact galactic X-ray sources are reviewed; key questions addressable by X-ray observations are outlined, and various proposed types of missions are evaluated in terms of their ability to address these questions. Subjects discussed include degenerate dwarfs and cataclysmic variables, bursters, neutron stars, black holes, and erratic variables, transients, and patrol programs. Specific topics include future X-ray observations of magnetic binaries, the thermonuclear-flash model for X-ray burst sources, neutron star X-ray sources, prospects for experimental research on black holes in binary systems, and compact X-ray source observations after Explorer with the LAMAR.

Lamb, F.↗

NASA/USAF research in structural dynamics

Research in the structural dynamics of large space structures is discussed. The problems of structural response are emphasized. Dynamic modeling, structural members, finite element techniques, axial loads, and vibration tests are among the topics discussed.

Pinson, L. D.↗

Research opportunities in muscle atrophy

Muscle atrophy in a weightless environment is studied. Topics of investigation include physiological factors of muscle atrophy in space flight, biochemistry, countermeasures, modelling of atrophied muscle tissue, and various methods of measurement of muscle strength and endurance. A review of the current literature and suggestions for future research are included.

Herbison, G. J.↗