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DOE OSTI2019

H β and H γ Absorption-line Profile Inconsistencies in Laboratory Experiments Performed at White Dwarf Photosphere Conditions

The spectroscopic method relies on hydrogen Balmer absorption lines to infer white dwarf (WD) masses. These masses depend on the choice of atmosphere model, hydrogen atomic line shape calculation, and which Balmer series members are included in the spectral fit. In addition to those variables, spectroscopic masses disagree with those derived using other methods. Here we present laboratory experiments aimed at investigating the main component of the spectroscopic method: hydrogen line shape calculations. These experiments use X-rays from Sandia National Laboratories’ Z-machine to create a uniform ~15 cm 3 hydrogen plasma and a ~4 eV backlighter that enables recording high-quality absorption spectra. The large plasma, volumetric X-ray heating that fosters plasma uniformity, and the ability to collect absorption spectra at WD photosphere conditions are improvements over past laboratory experiments. Analysis of the experimental absorption spectra reveals that electron density (n e ) values derived from the Hγ line are ~34% ± 7.3% lower than from Hβ. Two potential systematic errors that may contribute to this difference were investigated. A detailed evaluation of self-emission and plasma gradients shows that these phenomena are unlikely to produce any measurable Hβ–Hγ n e difference. WD masses inferred with the spectroscopic method are proportional to the photosphere density. Hence, the measured Hβ–Hγ n e difference is qualitatively consistent with the trend that WD masses inferred from their Hβ line are higher than that resulting from the analysis of Hβ and Hγ. In conclusion, this evidence may suggest that current hydrogen line shape calculations are not sufficiently accurate to capture the intricacies of the Balmer series.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Aemulus Project. V. Cosmological Constraint from Small-scale Clustering of BOSS Galaxies

We analyze clustering measurements of BOSS galaxies using a simulation-based emulator of two-point statistics. We focus on the monopole and quadrupole of the redshift-space correlation function, and the projected correlation function, at scales of 0.1 ~ 60 h -1 Mpc. Although our simulations are based on wCDM with general relativity (GR), we include a scaling parameter of the halo velocity field, γ f , defined as the amplitude of the halo velocity field relative to the GR prediction. We divide the BOSS data into three redshift bins. After marginalizing over other cosmological parameters, galaxy bias parameters, and the velocity scaling parameter, we find fσ 8 (z = 0.25) = 0.413 ± 0.031, fσ 8 (z = 0.4) = 0.470 ± 0.026, and fσ 8 (z = 0.55) = 0.396 ± 0.022. Compared with Planck observations using a flat Lambda cold dark matter model, our results are lower by 1.9σ, 0.3σ, and 3.4σ, respectively. These results are consistent with other recent simulation-based results at nonlinear scales, including weak lensing measurements of BOSS LOWZ galaxies, two-point clustering of eBOSS LRGs, and an independent clustering analysis of BOSS LOWZ. All these results are generally consistent with a combination of ${\gamma }_{f}^{1/2}{\sigma }_{8}\approx 0.75$. We note, however, that the BOSS data is well fit assuming GR, i.e., γf = 1. We cannot rule out an unknown systematic error in the galaxy bias model at nonlinear scales, but near-future data and modeling will enhance our understanding of the galaxy–halo connection, and provide a strong test of new physics beyond the standard model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Tale of Two Disks: Mapping the Milky Way with the Final Data Release of APOGEE

We present new maps of the Milky Way disk showing the distribution of metallicity ([Fe/H]), α-element abundances ([Mg/Fe]), and stellar age, using a sample of 66,496 red giant stars from the final data release (DR17) of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. We measure radial and vertical gradients, quantify the distribution functions for age and metallicity, and explore chemical clock relations across the Milky Way for the low-α disk, high-α disk, and total population independently. The low-α disk exhibits a negative radial metallicity gradient of -0.06 ± 0.001 dex kpc -1 , which flattens with distance from the midplane. The high-α disk shows a flat radial gradient in metallicity and age across nearly all locations of the disk. The age and metallicity distribution functions shift from negatively skewed in the inner Galaxy to positively skewed at large radius. Significant bimodality in the [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] plane and in the [Mg/Fe]–age relation persist across the entire disk. The age estimates have typical uncertainties of ~0.15 in log(age) and may be subject to additional systematic errors, which impose limitations on conclusions drawn from this sample. Nevertheless, these results act as critical constraints on galactic evolution models, constraining which physical processes played a dominant role in the formation of the Milky Way disk. We discuss how radial migration predicts many of the observed trends near the solar neighborhood and in the outer disk, but an additional more dramatic evolution history, such as the multi-infall model or a merger event, is needed to explain the chemical and age bimodality elsewhere in the Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the DR6 CMB Lensing Power Spectrum and Its Implications for Structure Growth

We present new measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing over 9400 deg of the sky. These lensing measurements are derived from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) CMB data set, which consists of five seasons of ACT CMB temperature and polarization observations. We determine the amplitude of the CMB lensing power spectrum at 2.3% precision (43σ significance) using a novel pipeline that minimizes sensitivity to foregrounds and to noise properties. To ensure that our results are robust, we analyze an extensive set of null tests, consistency tests, and systematic error estimates and employ a blinded analysis framework. Our CMB lensing power spectrum measurement provides constraints on the amplitude of cosmic structure that do not depend on Planck or galaxy survey data, thus giving independent information about large-scale structure growth and potential tensions in structure measurements. The baseline spectrum is well fit by a lensing amplitude of A lens = 1.013 ± 0.023 relative to the Planck 2018 CMB power spectra best-fit ΛCDM model and A lens = 1.005 ± 0.023 relative to the ACT DR4 + WMAP best-fit model. From our lensing power spectrum measurement, we derive constraints on the parameter combination $S^{CMBL}_{8}$ ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.25 of $S^{CMBL}_{8}$ = 0.818 ± 0.022 from ACT DR6 CMB lensing alone and $S^{CMBL}_{8}$ = 0.813 ± 0.018 when combining ACT DR6 and Planck NPIPE CMB lensing power spectra. These results are in excellent agreement with ΛCDM model constraints from Planck or ACT DR4 + WMAP CMB power spectrum measurements. Our lensing measurements from redshifts z ~ 0.5–5 are thus fully consistent with ΛCDM structure growth predictions based on CMB anisotropies probing primarily z ~ 1100. We find no evidence for a suppression of the amplitude of cosmic structure at low redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reconnaissance with JWST of the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch in Distance Ladder Galaxies: From Irregular Luminosity Functions to Approximation of the Hubble Constant

Abstract We study stars in the J-regions of the asymptotic giant branch (JAGB) of near-infrared color–magnitude diagrams in the maser host NGC 4258 and four hosts of six Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): NGC 1448, NGC 1559, NGC 5584, and NGC 5643. These clumps of stars are readily apparent near 1.0 < F150W − F277W < 1.5 andm F150W = 22–25 mag with James Webb Space Telescope NIRCam photometry. Various methods have been proposed to assign an apparent reference magnitude to this recently proposed standard candle, including the mode, median, sigma-clipped mean, or a modeled luminosity function parameter. We test the consistency of these by measuring intrahost variations, finding differences of up to ∼0.2 mag that significantly exceed statistical uncertainties. Brightness differences appear intrinsic, and are further amplified by the nonuniform shape of the JAGB luminosity function, also apparent in the LMC and SMC. We follow a “many methods” approach to measure consistently JAGB magnitudes and distance moduli to the SN Ia host sample calibrated by NGC 4258. We find broad agreement with distance moduli measured from Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch, and Miras. However, the SN host mean distance modulus estimated via the JAGB method necessary to estimateH 0 differs by ∼0.19 mag among the above definitions, the result of different levels of luminosity function asymmetry. The methods yield a full range of 71−78 km s −1 Mpc −1 , i.e., a fiducial result ofH 0 = 74.7 ± 2.1(stat) ± 2.3(sys, ±3.1 if combined in quadrature) km s −1 Mpc −1 , with systematic errors limited by the differences in methods. Future work may seek to standardize and refine this promising tool further, making it more competitive with established distance indicators.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Measurement of the Largest-scale CMB E -mode Polarization with CLASS

We present measurements of large-scale cosmic microwave background E-mode polarization from the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor 90 GHz data. Using 115 det-yr of observations collected through 2024 with a variable-delay polarization modulator, we achieved a polarization sensitivity of 82 μK arcimin, comparable to Planck at similar frequencies (100 and 143 GHz ). The analysis demonstrates effective mitigation of systematic errors and addresses challenges to large-angular-scale power recovery posed by time-domain filtering in maximum-likelihood map-making. A novel implementation of the pixel-space transfer matrix is introduced, which enables efficient filtering simulations and bias correction in the power spectrum using the quadratic cross-spectrum estimator. Overall, we achieved an unbiased time-domain filtering correction to recover the largest angular scale polarization, with the only power deficit, arising from map-making nonlinearity, being characterized as <3%. Through cross-correlation with Planck, we detected the cosmic reionization at 99.4% significance and measured the reionization optical depth τ = $0.053^{+0.018}_{-0.019}$, marking the first ground-based attempt at such a measurement. At intermediate angular scales (ℓ > 30), our results, both independently and in cross-correlation with Planck, remain fully consistent with Planck’s measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

RCSED—A Value-added Reference Catalog of Spectral Energy Distributions of 800,299 Galaxies in 11 Ultraviolet, Optical, and Near-infrared Bands: Morphologies, Colors, Ionized Gas, and Stellar Population Properties

We present RCSED, the value-added Reference Catalog of Spectral Energy Distributions of galaxies, which contains homogenized spectrophotometric data for 800,299 low- and intermediate-redshift galaxies (0.007<z<0.6) selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic sample. Accessible from the Virtual Observatory (VO) and complemented with detailed information on galaxy properties obtained with state-of-the-art data analysis, RCSED enables direct studies of galaxy formation and evolution over the last 5 Gyr. We provide tabulated color transformations for galaxies of different morphologies and luminosities, and analytic expressions for the red sequence shape in different colors. RCSED comprises integrated k-corrected photometry in up to 11 ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared bands published by the GALEX, SDSS, and UKIDSS wide-field imaging surveys; results of the stellar population fitting of SDSS spectra including best-fitting templates, velocity dispersions, parameterized star formation histories, and stellar metallicities computed for instantaneous starburst and exponentially declining star formation models; parametric and non-parametric emission line fluxes and profiles; and gas phase metallicities. We link RCSED to the Galaxy Zoo morphological classification and galaxy bulge+disk decomposition results of Simard et al. We construct the color–magnitude, Faber–Jackson, and mass–metallicity relations; compare them with the literature; and discuss systematic errors of the galaxy properties presented in our catalog. RCSED is accessible from the project web site and via VO simple spectrum access and table access services using VO-compliant applications. We describe several examples of SQL queries to the database. Finally, we briefly discuss existing and future scientific applications of RCSED and prospective catalog extensions to higher redshifts and different wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Advanced N -body Model for Interacting Multiple Stellar Systems

We construct an advanced model for interacting multiple stellar systems in which we compute all trajectories with a numerical N -body integrator, namely the Bulirsch–Stoer from the SWIFT package. We can then derive various observables: astrometric positions, radial velocities, minima timings (TTVs), eclipse durations, interferometric visibilities, closure phases, synthetic spectra, spectral energy distribution, and even complete light curves. We use a modified version of the Wilson–Devinney code for the latter, in which the instantaneous true phase and inclination of the eclipsing binary are governed by the N -body integration. If all of these types of observations are at one’s disposal, a joint χ {sup 2} metric and an optimization algorithm (a simplex or simulated annealing) allow one to search for a global minimum and construct very robust models of stellar systems. At the same time, our N -body model is free from artifacts that may arise if mutual gravitational interactions among all components are not self-consistently accounted for. Finally, we present a number of examples showing dynamical effects that can be studied with our code and we discuss how systematic errors may affect the results (and how to prevent this from happening).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Design, Integration, and Testing of the Small Aperture Telescopes

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a cosmic microwave background survey experiment that includes small-aperture telescopes (SATs) observing from an altitude of 5200 m in the Atacama Desert in Chile. The SO SATs will cover six spectral bands between 27 and 280 GHz to search for primordial B-modes to a sensitivity of σ(r) = 0.002, with quantified systematic errors well below this value. Each SAT is a self-contained cryogenic telescope with a 35° field of view, 42 cm diameter optical aperture, 40 K half-wave plate, 1 K refractive optics, and <0.1 K focal plane that holds >12,000 transition edge sensor detectors. We describe the nominal design of the SATs and present details about the integration and testing for one operating at 93 and 145 GHz.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

ON THE DEPENDENCE OF TYPE Ia SNe LUMINOSITIES ON THE METALLICITY OF THEIR HOST GALAXIES

The metallicity of the progenitor system producing a type Ia supernova (SN Ia) could play a role in its maximum luminosity, as suggested by theoretical predictions. We present an observational study to investigate if such a relationship exists. Using the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope (WHT) we have obtained intermediate-resolution spectroscopy data of a sample of 28 local galaxies hosting SNe Ia, for which distances have been derived using methods independent of those based on SN Ia parameters. From the emission lines observed in their optical spectra, we derived the gas-phase oxygen abundance in the region where each SN Ia exploded. Our data show a trend, with an 80% of chance not being due to random fluctuation, between SNe Ia absolute magnitudes and the oxygen abundances of the host galaxies, in the sense that luminosities tend to be higher for galaxies with lower metallicities. This result seems likely to be in agreement with both the theoretically expected behavior and with other observational results. This dependence M{sub B}–Z might induce systematic errors when it is not considered when deriving SNe Ia luminosities and then using them to derive cosmological distances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measuring the Viewing Angle of GW170817 with Electromagnetic and Gravitational Waves

The joint detection of gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 ushered in a new era of multi-messenger astronomy. Joint GW–EM observations can be used to measure the parameters of the binary with better precision than either observation alone. Here, we use joint GW–EM observations to measure the viewing angle of GW170817, the angle between the binary's angular momentum and the line of sight. We combine a direct measurement of the distance to the host galaxy of GW170817 (NGC 4993) of 40.7 ± 2.36 Mpc with the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo GW data and find that the viewing angle is ${32}_{-13}^{+10}\,\pm 1.7$ degrees (90% confidence, statistical, and systematic errors). We place a conservative lower limit on the viewing angle of ≥13°, which is robust to the choice of prior. This measurement provides a constraint on models of the prompt γ-ray and radio/X-ray afterglow emission associated with the merger; for example, it is consistent with the off-axis viewing angle inferred for a structured jet model. Lastly, we provide for the first time the full posterior samples from Bayesian parameter estimation of LIGO/Virgo data to enable further analysis by the community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. III. Data Processing and Calibration

We present the calibration and reduction of Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm radio wavelength observations of the supermassive black hole candidate at the center of the radio galaxy M87 and the quasar 3C 279, taken during the 2017 April 5–11 observing campaign. These global very long baseline interferometric observations include for the first time the highly sensitive Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA); reaching an angular resolution of 25 μas, with characteristic sensitivity limits of ~1 mJy on baselines to ALMA and ~10 mJy on other baselines. The observations present challenges for existing data processing tools, arising from the rapid atmospheric phase fluctuations, wide recording bandwidth, and highly heterogeneous array. In response, we developed three independent pipelines for phase calibration and fringe detection, each tailored to the specific needs of the EHT. The final data products include calibrated total intensity amplitude and phase information. They are validated through a series of quality assurance tests that show consistency across pipelines and set limits on baseline systematic errors of 2% in amplitude and 1° in phase. The M87 data reveal the presence of two nulls in correlated flux density at ~3.4 and ~8.3 Gλ and temporal evolution in closure quantities, indicating intrinsic variability of compact structure on a timescale of days, or several light-crossing times for a few billion solar-mass black hole. These measurements provide the first opportunity to image horizon-scale structure in M87.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

PSR J0030+0451 Mass and Radius from NICER Data and Implications for the Properties of Neutron Star Matter

Neutron stars are not only of astrophysical interest, but are also of great interest to nuclear physicists because their attributes can be used to determine the properties of the dense matter in their cores. One of the most informative approaches for determining the equation of state (EoS) of this dense matter is to measure both a star's equatorial circumferential radius R e and its gravitational mass M. Here we report estimates of the mass and radius of the isolated 205.53 Hz millisecond pulsar PSR J0030+0451 obtained using a Bayesian inference approach to analyze its energy-dependent thermal X-ray waveform, which was observed using the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). This approach is thought to be less subject to systematic errors than other approaches for estimating neutron star radii. We explored a variety of emission patterns on the stellar surface. In this work, our best-fit model has three oval, uniform-temperature emitting spots and provides an excellent description of the pulse waveform observed using NICER. The radius and mass estimates given by this model are ${R}_{e}={13.02}_{-1.06}^{+1.24}$ km and $M={1.44}_{-0.14}^{+0.15}\,{M}_{\odot }$ (68%). The independent analysis reported in the companion paper by Riley et al. explores different emitting spot models, but finds spot shapes and locations and estimates of R e and M that are consistent with those found in this work. We show that our measurements of R e and M for PSR J0030+0451 improve the astrophysical constraints on the EoS of cold, catalyzed matter above nuclear saturation density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

An ecosystem-scale perspective of the net land methanol flux: synthesis of micrometeorological flux measurements

We present field observations made in June 2011 downwind of Dallas-Fort Worth, TX, and evaluate the role of stabilized Criegee radicals (sCIs) in gaseous sulfuric acid (H2SO4) production. Zero-dimensional model calculations show that sCI from BVOCs composed the majority of the sCIs. The main uncertainty associated with an evaluation of H2SO4 production from the sCI reaction channel is the lack of experimentally determined reaction rates for sCIs formed from isoprene ozonolysis with SO2. In general, the maximum of H2SO4 production from the sCI channel is found in the late afternoon as ozone increases towards the late afternoon. The sCI channel, however, contributes minor H2SO4 production compared with the conventional OH channel. Finally, The production and the loss rates of H2SO4 are compared. The application of the recommended mass accommodation coefficient causes significant overestimation of H2SO4 loss rates compared with H2SO4 production rates. On the other hand, the application of a lower experimental value for the mass accommodation coefficient provides good agreement between the loss and production rates of H2SO4. The results suggest that the recommended coefficient for the H2O surface may not be suitable for this relatively dry environment.

Wohlfahrt, G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory and field assessment of mid-infrared absorption (MIRA) instrument performance for methane and ethane dry mole fractions

Concurrent measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) can be used to identify and separate methane sources, as ethane is present in thermogenic sources (e.g., oil and natural gas) but not in biogenic sources (e.g., agriculture). In this study, we evaluated the performance of multiple Aeris MIRA Ultra instruments (Versions 1 and 2) through controlled laboratory tests and tower-based deployments under field conditions. The systems were modified with an external pump, flow control, a Nafion dryer, and a custom-built auxiliary box to automate the system and transmit near real-time data. We determined the best calibration approach for our application, given practical limitations, to be a full calibration cycle (with ambient and high calibration cylinders) about once per day and an ambient calibration cylinder sampled hourly. Measurement uncertainty was assessed, including the uncertainty due to instrument noise as a function of calibration frequency, uncertainty in the water vapor correction, and cylinder assignment uncertainty. Instrument noise was the dominant source of uncertainty for C 2 H 6 , while the water vapor correction dominated the CH 4 uncertainty. For Version 2 systems with hourly calibrations and a Nafion dryer with counterflow, the mean total uncertainty, including both systematic errors and noise, of hourly averages was 0.8–3.0 ppb CH 4 and 0.35–0.37 ppb C 2 H 6 . Laboratory intercomparisons showed network compatibility within 1.2 ppb CH 4 and 0.23 ppb C 2 H6, and a collocated deployment with a NOAA Picarro system agreed within 1.8 ppb CH 4 . Instrument noise varied substantially amongst the instruments, with errors reaching up to 11 ppb CH 4 and 2 ppb C 2 H 6 for hourly means, with similar variability indicated in a 50 h cylinder test. With appropriate engineering and calibration, the Aeris MIRA Ultra has the potential to distinguish regional methane emission sources in many field settings.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Impact of numerical choices on water conservation in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1)

Abstract. The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Several sources of water conservation error have been identified during the development of the version 1 (V1) model. The largest errors result from the numerical coupling between the resolved dynamics and the parameterized sub-grid physics. A hybrid coupling using different methods for fluid dynamics and tracer transport provides a reduction of water conservation error by a factor of 50 at 1∘ horizontal resolution as well as consistent improvements at other resolutions. The second largest error source is the use of an overly simplified relationship between the surface moisture flux and latent heat flux at the interface between the host model and the turbulence parameterization. This error can be prevented by applying the same (correct) relationship throughout the entire model. Two additional types of conservation error that result from correcting the surface moisture flux and clipping negative water concentrations can be avoided by using mass-conserving fixers. With all four error sources addressed, the water conservation error in the V1 model becomes negligible and insensitive to the horizontal resolution. The associated changes in the long-term statistics of the main atmospheric features are small. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to show that the magnitudes of the conservation errors in early V1 versions decrease strongly with temporal resolution but increase with horizontal resolution. The increased vertical resolution in V1 results in a very thin model layer at the Earth's surface, which amplifies the conservation error associated with the surface moisture flux correction. We note that for some of the identified error sources, the proposed fixers are remedies rather than solutions to the problems at their roots. Future improvements in time integration would be beneficial for V1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bias correcting regional scale Earth system model projections: novel approach using empirical mode decomposition

Bias correction is a crucial step in using Earth system model outputs for assessments, as it adjusts systematic errors by comparing the model to observations. However, standard methods – ranging from mean-based linear scaling to distribution-based quantile mapping typically treat bias correction as a single-scale process, overlooking the fact that biases can manifest differently across daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this study, we propose a novel, timescale-aware bias-correction approach built on Empirical Mode Decomposition. By decomposing the meteorological signal into multiple oscillatory components and aggregating them to represent distinct timescales, we apply targeted corrections to each component, thereby preserving both short- and long-term structure in the data. Experimental illustrations show that the timescale-aware EMDBC framework matches the performance of conventional quantile-delta mapping (QDM) at the native daily scale and achieves progressively larger bias reductions at bi-weekly, seasonal, and annual scales. As a result, the proposed approach offers a more robust path to accurate and reliable Earth system projections, strengthening their utility for resilience and adaptation planning.

Ganguli, Arkaprabha [Argonne National Laboratory (↗