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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Improving solar panel durability through novel panel designs and advanced manufacturing equipment

Work in the project was spread across 4 main themes:1) Improved Understanding of Why Cracks Form and Cause Degradation in Solar Cells: We developed a finite element model which correlated well with experimental determined deflection vs load profiles and which predicted stress profiles vs load level and temperature. These profiles helped to guide brace designs and showed the high stress levels seen in the silicon near the interconnect wire locations as the temperature is cooled below -30C, likely forming "invisible" microcracks. Experiments showed how for polymer backsheet modules, a brief exposure to such low temperatures made modules extremely sensitive to propagation of these microcracks at relatively low load levels, and how thicker and softer encapsulant helped to reduce this crack sensitivity. We showed for some modules that most cracks that are seen under loading had their origin at short, hard to see, V-cracks from soldering damage, and how the shunting from cells with high densities of cracks reduces energy delivery more than Pmax. 2) Improved Durability Testing Methods With Respect to Cracked Cells: We lobbied the PV community throughout the project that IEC 61215 was insufficient to probe the sensitivity of module Pmax degradation due to cracks in that in did not have a test leg that included a crack creation step (static loading) followed by a crack opening step (cyclic loading and/or thermal cycling). We published extensively on how pre- existing cracks opened up with cyclic loading. The new IEC TS 63209-1 ED1 test sequence now include our recommendations, and this should lead to improved module designs and reduced risk for investors. We also published recommendations for a new "Cold Climate Test" sequence to probe the sensitivity of modules to degradation from short microcracks formed when modules see temperatures below -30C followed by front side loading. We participated in several USTAG meetings related to cracked cells, EL testing, and mechanical load testing and provided input to the group to improve new standards under consideration. We also showed how the act of performing an EL test can affect the test results due to heating from the injected current. 3) New Module Designs and Related Manufacturing Methods & Equipment: We demonstrated reduced crack sensitivity on encapsulated cell coupons the benefits of building protective compressive stress into the cells by laminating them in a bent state and then allowing the coupon to flatten out after lamination. Our attempts to scale this to the module level with a more manufacturable sequence did not demonstrate the same positive effects, but we hope that others will follow up with other variations on this bent lamination or bent cooling concept to make more durable modules. 4) New Module Mounting Designs: We explored a range of bracing concepts which pressed on the backsheet to slightly bow the glass outward and place cells in a state of protective compressive stress and to reduce the deflection under front side loads. These successfully reduced cell cracking and crack opening, but high static loads permanently deformed cost-effective braces, after which they provided little benefit. We settled on an elegant & effective solution – the RailPad, where lightweight bracing elements are placed between the mounting rail(s) and the backsheet, and the existing strength of the rails is used to prevent module deflection under load. New construction and retrofit designs were made, and test sites were implemented in FL and MA. We applied for RailPad patent protection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Computational and Experimental Validation of Fractal-Fin, Dimpled Solar Heat Collector

A 3 foot x 3 foot x 3 foot aluminum solar collector was manufactured using computer numerical control. The interior of the device included six triangular dimpled fins for enhanced heat transfer. The interior vertical wall on the south side was also dimpled. The solar collector working fluid was based on water, and the collector consisted solely of passive heat transfer mechanisms (no moving parts), making it ideal for off-the-grid and rural applications. Two types of heat transfer experiments were conducted. One experiment had external flat heaters attached on the top and the front side, while the other four sides were insulated. Except for the bottom surface, the second experiment had all its exterior surfaces sprayed with black solar paint to collect as much solar heat as possible. Temperature data as a function of time was collected using 14 thermocouples spread strategically throughout the solar collector. In addition, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted using the dynamic Smagorinsky large eddy simulation turbulence model. The first simulation considered that both the top and front surfaces were exposed to a fixed temperature of 313.7 K (105 °F), while the remaining four surfaces were insulated. For the second simulation, all conditions were the same, except that the temperature for both heated surfaces was raised to 350 K (170.3 °F). The two temperatures are expected to bound the solar collector operational temperature during the late- Spring, Summer, and early-Fall months. The solar collector design, experimental data, CFD output, and a discussion of five manufacturing approaches and costs are documented in this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Arctic Aerosol Sources and Mixing States Field Campaign Report

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than anywhere else on Earth, with rapidly shrinking sea ice extent transforming the region. Depending on chemical and physical properties, atmospheric aerosols directly scatter and/or absorb radiation, serve as cloud droplet and/or ice crystal nuclei, and/or reduce the reflectiveness of the snow surface, thereby altering the atmospheric energy budget. There is a wide spread in the magnitude of simulated arctic aerosol radiative forcing, and significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Increasing local natural and anthropogenic emissions are significant, with uncertain climate impacts due to complex feedbacks. Model evaluations, however, are limited by the dearth of arctic aerosol observations available and an inadequate understanding of arctic aerosol processes. The majority of previous arctic aerosol observations have been made through intensive spring/summer field campaigns, with few intensive measurement studies focused on the fall-winter transition, a period when freeze-up is occurring later and thinning sea ice is resulting in wintertime ice fracturing. Aerosol monitoring at arctic coastal stations has provided knowledge of long-term seasonal trends in aerosol concentrations. The completed ARM field campaign addresses observational and knowledge gaps through detailed aerosol size and chemical composition measurements during the fall-winter transition in the coastal Arctic and through the entire annual cycle in the central Arctic. The observations are improving our understanding of the sources and processes controlling the aerosol population in the rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales: Research Performance Progress Report (RPPR-1)

Sandia will construct a cold flow receiver test platform in order to characterize falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales. While Sandia has extensive experience in R&D of falling particle curtain receivers, most have been at pilot scale and smaller - on the order of 1 MW th with characteristic dimensions of nominally 1-2 m to adequately collect solar energy from the heliostat field at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF). However, scaling up receivers to commercially relevant scales (25 MW th and above) will require a thorough understanding of particle curtain dynamics at larger scales, especially longer drop heights, for design certainty. The goal of this project will be to construct a cold falling particle curtain test rig capable of simulating particle characteristics that are expected in a commercial scale CSP plant, namely the drop height, curtain thickness, and particle mass flow rate (normalized by length of curtain). This will enable data collection on curtain opacity and spread, both of which are correlated to receiver efficiency and reliable construction, for commercially relevant scales. It will also permit validation of numerical models that will enable detailed receiver characterization and design past currently validated scales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Characterizing falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales: Research Performance Progress Report (RPPR-1)

Sandia will construct a cold flow receiver test platform in order to characterize falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales. While Sandia has extensive experience in R&D of falling particle curtain receivers, most have been at pilot scale and smaller - on the order of 1 MWth with characteristic dimensions of nominally 1-2 m to adequately collect solar energy from the heliostat field at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF). However, scaling up receivers to commercially relevant scales (25 MWth and above) will require a thorough understanding of particle curtain dynamics at larger scales, especially longer drop heights, for design certainty. The goal of this project will be to construct a cold falling particle curtain test rig capable of simulating particle characteristics that are expected in a commercial scale CSP plant, namely the drop height, curtain thickness, and particle mass flow rate (normalized by length of curtain). This will enable data collection on curtain opacity and spread, both of which are correlated to receiver efficiency and reliable construction, for commercially relevant scales. It will also permit validation of numerical models that will enable detailed receiver characterization and design past currently validated scales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

3C 279 - The case for 'superluminal' expansion

The compact extragalactic radio source 3C 279 was observed with the Haystack-Goldstone interferometer (wavelength approximately 3.8 cm) during six separate sessions spread between October 1970 and April 1972. The fringe amplitudes from each of these observation sessions were consistent with a two-component model of the brightness distribution of the source. The position angle of the line joining the components remained at 38 + or - 2 deg, while the angular separation between the components increased nearly linearly at the rate of 0.5 + or 0.1 milliarcsec/yr during this period. The corresponding apparent expansion speed is (21 + or - 4)c, for H = 50 km/s per Mpc and q = 0.05

Cotton, W. D.↗

Topographic and volcanic asymmetry around the Red Sea - Constraints on rift models

This paper describes a model which explains the topographic and volcanic asymmetry around the Red Sea. The model involves asthenospheric upwelling beneath a lithosphere of laterally variable strength in which a weak zone (e.g., a suture or a region with quartz-bearing lower crust) may have controlled the location of rifting. In this model, Tertiary volcanism in Saudi Arabia marks the location of initial upwelling, and uplift is due to crustal thickening associated with magmatic underplating and crustal intrusion. The model predicts that the incipient crustal rift and the locus of mantle upwelling will tend to align as rifting continues and stable seafloor spreading develops, implying relative migration of the lithosphere and asthenosphere.

Dixon, Timothy H.↗

Diffusive redistribution of water vapor in the solar nebula revisited

Stevenson and Lunine presented a model for enhancing the abundance of solid material in the region of the solar nebula at the water condensation point. This was used to provide a means to produce a much more rapid formation of Jupiter than the standard solar nebula models. However, they underestimated the drag induced sun-ward radial drift of the planetesimals of interest. Reanalysis reveals that these particles would spread over the inner solar system and might influence the formation of the asteroids.

Sears, William D.↗

Coupling of volatile transport and internal heat flow on Triton

Recently Brown et al. (1991) showed that Triton's internal heat source could amount to 5-20% of the absorbed insolation on Triton, thus significantly affecting volatile transport and atmospheric pressure. Subsequently, Kirk and Brown (1991a) used simple analytical models of the effect of internal heat on the distribution of volatiles on Triton's surface, confirming the speculation of Brown et al. that Triton's internal heat flow could strongly couple to the surface volatile distribution. To further explore this idea, we present numerical models of the permanent distribution of nitrogen ice on Triton that include the effects of sunlight, the two-dimensional distribution of internal heat flow, the coupling of internal heat flow to the surface distribution of nitrogen ice, and the finite viscosity of nitrogen ice. From these models we conclude that: (1) The strong vertical thermal gradient induced in Triton's polar caps by internal heat-flow facilitates viscous spreading to lower latitudes, thus opposing the poleward transport of volatiles by sunlight, and, for plausible viscosities and nitrogen inventories, producing permanent caps of considerable latitudinal extent; (2) It is probable that there is a strong coupling between the surface distribution of nitrogen ice on Triton and internal heat flow; (3) Asymmetries in the spatial distribution of Triton's heat flow, possibly driven by large-scale, volcanic activity or convection in Triton's interior, can result in permanent polar caps of unequal latitudinal extent, including the case of only one permanent polar cap; (4) Melting at the base of a permanent polar cap on Triton caused by internal heat flow can significantly enhance viscous spreading, and, as an alternative to the solid-state greenhouse mechanism proposed by Brown et al. (1990), could provide the necessary energy, fluids, and/or gases to drive Triton's geyser-like plumes; (5) The atmospheric collapse predicted to occur on Triton in the next 20 years (Spencer, 1990) may be plausibly avoided because of the large latitudinal extent expected for permanent polar caps on Triton.

Brown, Robert H.↗

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document: Cloud Analyses and Determination of Improved Top of Atmosphere Fluxes (Subsystem 4) - Volume 3

The theoretical bases for the Release 1 algorithms that will be used to process satellite data for investigation of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) are described. The architecture for software implementation of the methodologies is outlined. Volume 3 details the advanced CERES methods for performing scene identification and inverting each CERES scanner radiance to a top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux. CERES determines cloud fraction, height, phase, effective particle size, layering, and thickness from high-resolution, multispectral imager data. CERES derives cloud properties for each pixel of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) visible and infrared scanner and the Earth Observing System (EOS) moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer. Cloud properties for each imager pixel are convolved with the CERES footprint point spread function to produce average cloud properties for each CERES scanner radiance. The mean cloud properties are used to determine an angular distribution model (ADM) to convert each CERES radiance to a TOA flux. The TOA fluxes are used in simple parameterization to derive surface radiative fluxes. This state-of-the-art cloud-radiation product will be used to substantially improve our understanding of the complex relationship between clouds and the radiation budget of the Earth-atmosphere system.

Source record↗

Influence of Ohio River Valley Emissions on Fine Particle Sulfate Measured from Aircraft over Large Regions of the Eastern United States and Canada during INTEX-NA

Aircraft measurements of fine inorganic aerosol composition were made with a particle-into-liquid sampler coupled to dual ion chromatographs (PILS-IC) as part of the NASA INTEX-NA study. The sampling campaign, which lasted from 1 July to 14 August 2004, centered over the eastern United States and Canada and showed that sulfate was the dominant inorganic species measured. The highest sulfate concentrations were observed at altitudes below 2 km, and back trajectory analyses showed a distinct difference between air masses that had or had not intercepted the Ohio River valley (ORV) region. Air masses encountered below 2 km with a history over the ORV had sulfate concentrations that were higher by a factor of 3.2 and total sulfur (S) concentrations higher by 2.5. The study's highest sulfate concentrations were found in these air masses. The sulfur of the ORV air masses was also more processed with a mean sulfate to total sulfur molar ratio of 0.5 compared to 0.3 in non-ORV measurements. Results from a second, independent trajectory model agreed well with those from the primary analysis. These ORV-influenced air masses were encountered on multiple days and were widely spread across the eastern United States and western Atlantic region.

Hennigan, Christopher J.↗

Evaluating Soil Moisture Retrievals from ESA's SMOS and NASA's SMAP Brightness Temperature Datasets

Two satellites are currently monitoring surface soil moisture (SM) using L-band observations: SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), a joint ESA (European Space Agency), CNES (Centre national d'tudes spatiales), and CDTI (the Spanish government agency with responsibility for space) satellite launched on November 2, 2009 and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive), a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite successfully launched in January 2015. In this study, we used a multilinear regression approach to retrieve SM from SMAP data to create a global dataset of SM, which is consistent with SM data retrieved from SMOS. This was achieved by calibrating coefficients of the regression model using the CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Donnes) SMOS Level 3 SM and the horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperatures (TB) at 40 deg incidence angle, over the 2013 - 2014 period. Next, this model was applied to SMAP L3 TB data from Apr 2015 to Jul 2016. The retrieved SM from SMAP (referred to here as SMAP_Reg) was compared to: (i) the operational SMAP L3 SM (SMAP_SCA), retrieved using the baseline Single Channel retrieval Algorithm (SCA); and (ii) the operational SMOSL3 SM, derived from the multiangular inversion of the L-MEB model (L-MEB algorithm) (SMOSL3). This inter-comparison was made against in situ soil moisture measurements from more than 400 sites spread over the globe, which are used here as a reference soil moisture dataset. The in situ observations were obtained from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN; https:ismn.geo.tuwien.ac.at) in North of America (PBO_H2O, SCAN, SNOTEL, iRON, and USCRN), in Australia (Oznet), Africa (DAHRA), and in Europe (REMEDHUS, SMOSMANIA, FMI, and RSMN). The agreement was analyzed in terms of four classical statistical criteria: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE),Bias, Unbiased RMSE (UnbRMSE), and correlation coefficient (R). Results of the comparison of these various products with in situ observations show that the performance of both SMAP products i.e. SMAP_SCA and SMAP_Reg is 48 similar and marginally better to that of the SMOSL3 product particularly over the PBO_H2O, SCAN, and USCRN sites. However, SMOSL3 SM was closer to the in situ observations over the DAHRA and Oznet sites. We found that the correlation between all three datasets and in situ measurements is best (R 0.80) over the Oznet sites and worst (R 0.58) over the SNOTEL sites for SMAP_SCA and over the DAHRA and SMOSMANIA sites (R 0.51 and R 0.45 for SMAP_Reg and SMOSL3, respectively). The Bias values showed that all products are generally dry, except over RSMN, DAHRA, and Oznet (and FMI for SMAP_SCA). Finally, our analysis provided interesting insights that can be useful to improve the consistency between SMAP and SMOS datasets.

SMOS↗

The 17 April 2021 Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event

A complex and long-lasting solar eruption on 17 April 2021 produced a widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was observed by five longitudinally well-separated observers in the inner heliosphere that covered distances to the Sun from 0.42 to 1 au: BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and near-Earth spacecraft. The event was the second widespread SEP event detected in solar cycle 25, and it produced relativistic electrons and protons. It was associated with a long-lasting solar hard X-ray flare that showed multiple hard X-ray peaks over a duration of one hour. The event was further accompanied by a medium-fast coronal mass ejection (CME) with a speed of 880 km s -1 that drove a shock, an extreme ultraviolet wave, and long-lasting and complex radio burst activity that showed four distinct type III burst groups over a period of 40 min. We aim to understand the reason for the wide spread of elevated SEP intensities in the inner heliosphere as well as identify the underlying source regions of the observed energetic electrons and protons. We applied a comprehensive multi-spacecraft analysis of remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements of the energetic particles and interplanetary context to attribute the SEP observations at the different locations to the various potential source regions at the Sun. We used an ENLIL simulation to characterize the complex interplanetary state and its role in the energetic particle transport. The magnetic connection between each spacecraft and the Sun was determined using ballistic backmapping in combination with potential field source surface extrapolations in the lower corona. Using also a reconstruction of the coronal shock front, we then determined the times when the shock establishes magnetic connections with the different observers. Radio observations were used to characterize the directivity of the four main injection episodes, which were then employed in a 2D SEP transport simulation to test the importance of these different injection episodes. A comprehensive timing analysis of the inferred solar injection times of the SEPs observed at each spacecraft suggests different source processes being important for the electron and proton events. Comparison among the characteristics and timing of the potential particle sources, such as the CME-driven shock or the flare, suggests a stronger shock contribution for the proton event and a more likely flare-related source for the electron event. In contrast to earlier studies on widespread SEP events, we find that in this event an important ingredient for the wide SEP spread was the wide longitudinal range of about 110 o covered by distinct SEP injections, which is also supported by our SEP transport modeling.

sun↗

Compartment Fire Modeling of a Crew Cabin in 1-g and Lunar-g

A fire inside a spacecraft poses one of the greatest dangers to the crew and mission success. As missions become more complex and longer in duration, the risk of a fire becomes more probable and catastrophic. A greater understanding of the effects of a fire inside a crewed vehicle at potential exploration atmospheres is needed. These exploration atmospheres, such as those being proposed for upcoming Lunar missions, include higher oxygen concentrations and lower pressures, also known as Normoxic conditions. Full scale fire testing, such as those performed during previous space programs, is the most straightforward way to obtain this understanding. These tests are difficult to implement in 1-g and even more challenging to attempt in Lunar-g. Modeling can help inform experiments aimed at determining flammability properties of common materials at exploration atmospheres, as well as determine the effect a fire has inside a spacecraft. A model can also be easily simulated in Lunar-g to predict the effect of gravity on fire propagation. This work focuses on a model of a theoretical partial crew cabin, with potential fire sources being a laptop and a Nomex sleeping bag. A simulation of the crew cabin during a high Heat Release Rate (HRR) fire and low HRR fire at 1-g was compared to simulations at Lunar-g. It was found that in both the low and high HRR cases, the temperature in the cabin was higher in the Lunar-g case than in the 1-g case. This is likely due to the hot products moving out the door of the crew cabin faster in the 1-g case. Modeling case studies like these will help guide future full-scale flammability experiments on Earth and allow for the prediction of fire spread in a Lunar gravity environment in order to design a safer crew cabin.

Fire Safety↗

The Statistical Spread of Transmission Outages on a Fast Protection Time Scale Based on Utility Data

When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from utility outage data, determine some key statistics of these patterns, and then show how to generate new patterns consistent with these statistics. The generated patterns provide a new and easily feasible way to model the overall effect of the protection system at the scale of a large transmission system. This new data-driven generative modeling of protection is expected to contribute to simulations of disturbances in large grids so that they can better quantify the risk of blackouts. Analysis of the pattern sizes suggests an index that describes how much outages spread in the transmission network at the fast timescale.

Transmission↗

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large-Eddy Simulations of a Coaxial Supersonic Free-Jet Experiment

Reynolds-averaged and hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations have been applied to a supersonic coaxial jet flow experiment. The experiment was designed to study compressible mixing flow phenomenon under conditions that are representative of those encountered in scramjet combustors. The experiment utilized either helium or argon as the inner jet nozzle fluid, and the outer jet nozzle fluid consisted of laboratory air. The inner and outer nozzles were designed and operated to produce nearly pressure-matched Mach 1.8 flow conditions at the jet exit. The purpose of the computational effort was to assess the state-of-the-art for each modeling approach, and to use the hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations to gather insight into the deficiencies of the Reynolds-averaged closure models. The Reynolds-averaged simulations displayed a strong sensitivity to choice of turbulent Schmidt number. The initial value chosen for this parameter resulted in an over-prediction of the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, but the opposite trend was observed when argon was used as the injectant. A larger turbulent Schmidt number greatly improved the comparison of the results with measurements for the helium simulations, but variations in the Schmidt number did not improve the argon comparisons. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations also over-predicted the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, while under-predicting the rate of mixing when argon was used as the injectant. The primary reason conjectured for the discrepancy between the hybrid simulation results and the measurements centered around issues related to the transition from a Reynolds-averaged state to one with resolved turbulent content. Improvements to the inflow conditions were suggested as a remedy to this dilemma. Second-order turbulence statistics were also compared to their modeled Reynolds-averaged counterparts to evaluate the effectiveness of common turbulence closure assumptions.

Baurle, Robert A.↗

Ensemble PM2.5 Forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire Event Using the HYSPLIT Transport and Dispersion Model

Biomass burning releases a vast amount of aerosols into the atmosphere, often leading to severe air quality and health problems. Prediction of the air quality effects from biomass burning emissions is challenging due to uncertainties in fire emission, plume rise calculation, and other model inputs/processes. Ensemble forecasting is increasingly used to represent model uncertainties. In this paper, an ensemble forecast was conducted to predict surface PM2.5 during the 2018 California Camp Fire event using the NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model at 0.1- degree horizontal resolution. Different combinations of four satellite-based fire emission datasets (FEER, FLAMBE, GBBEPx and GFAS), two plume rise schemes (Briggs and Sofiev), various meteorology inputs and model setup options were used to create the forecast ensemble, for a total of 112 experiments. The performance of each ensemble member and the ensemble mean were evaluated using ground-based observations, with four statistical metrics and an overall rank. The ensemble spread of the 112 members reached 1000 μg/m3, highlighting the large uncertainty in wildfire forecast. The ensemble mean displayed the best performance. Each fire emission product contributed to one or more members among the top ten performers, revealing the forecasting dependence on both the quality of fire emissions data and model representation of emission, transport and removal processes. In addition, an ensemble size reduction technique was introduced. With the help of this technique, the ensemble size was reduced from 112 to 28 members and still produced an ensemble mean that yielded comparable or even better performance to that of the full ensemble.

Biomass Burning↗

Time delay lens modelling challenge

ABSTRACT In recent years, breakthroughs in methods and data have enabled gravitational time delays to emerge as a very powerful tool to measure the Hubble constant H0. However, published state-of-the-art analyses require of order 1 yr of expert investigator time and up to a million hours of computing time per system. Furthermore, as precision improves, it is crucial to identify and mitigate systematic uncertainties. With this time delay lens modelling challenge, we aim to assess the level of precision and accuracy of the modelling techniques that are currently fast enough to handle of order 50 lenses, via the blind analysis of simulated data sets. The results in Rungs 1 and 2 show that methods that use only the point source positions tend to have lower precision ($10\!-\!20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) while remaining accurate. In Rung 2, the methods that exploit the full information of the imaging and kinematic data sets can recover H0 within the target accuracy (|A| < 2 per cent) and precision (<6 per cent per system), even in the presence of a poorly known point spread function and complex source morphology. A post-unblinding analysis of Rung 3 showed the numerical precision of the ray-traced cosmological simulations to be insufficient to test lens modelling methodology at the percent level, making the results difficult to interpret. A new challenge with improved simulations is needed to make further progress in the investigation of systematic uncertainties. For completeness, we present the Rung 3 results in an appendix and use them to discuss various approaches to mitigating against similar subtle data generation effects in future blind challenges.

Ding, X.↗