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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Initial electron cyclotron heating/current drive scoping study for the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART)

In this work an initial electron cyclotron heating/current drive (EC H&CD) scoping study is presented for the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART), constructed and operated by the Plasma Science and Fusion Technology (PSFT) Laboratory of the University of Seville. We consider two planned phases of operation with different magnitude of magnetic field (B 0.4, and 1 T). This EC H&CD scoping study is carried out by using the ray tracing code TRAVIS, which allows to quickly perform a series of scans on the main SMART plasma scenarios. A scan in the poloidal and toroidal launching angles is performed for the B 0.4 T plasma scenario assuming three launching locations (mid-plane, off-mid-plane, and top-launcher) and the extraordinary (X-) mode polarization. The absorption occurs at the second harmonic and, overall, the highest power absorption is obtained launching the EC beam from the top of the machine. A numerical analysis of the fundamental X-mode EC H&CD start-up regime for the B 1.0 T plasma scenario with two different wave frequencies (28 and 35 GHz) is presented showing a very high current drive efficiency.

Bertelli, Nicola [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborat↗

Storage Complex Modeling for CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County (Task 8)

This report presents the workflow, processes and data input used in developing geostatic models and conducting dynamic simulations for the geological setting in the CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County project. A range of simulation scenarios are described to assess injection characteristics and behavior of injected CO 2 and overall storage performance of the site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Hydrogen Production and Electricity Markets: Analytical Insights from California

This report compares the cost of different pathways for producing hydrogen in California. In addition to capturing the current cost of electrolyzers and other equipment, the pathways apply current retail electricity tariff options offered by utilities Southern California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The analysis also tests the cost of combining hydrogen production with utility-scale wind or solar generation in California. Scenarios examine current costs as well as projections for 2030. The cost benchmark - a relatively low electrolytic hydrogen production cost - is based on the wholesale price of electricity used by a theoretical hydrogen production plant connected directly to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) transmission system. California law currently prohibits this approach in CAISO, but it is permissible in other organized wholesale electricity markets. The cost for producing hydrogen under 2019 conditions in this theoretical case was approximately $3/kg. Different scenarios are used to examine current costs, e.g., 2019, as well as projections for 2030.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Progress in European CELSS activities

The European Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) activities started in the late 1970's with system analysis and feasibility studies of Biological Life Support Systems (BLSS). The initiation for CELSS came from the industry side in Europe, but since then planning and hardware feasibility analyses have been initiated also from customer/agency side. Despite this, it is still too early to state that a CELSS program as a concerted effort has been agreed upon in Europe. However, the general CELSS objectives were accepted as planning and possible development goals for the European effort for manned space activities, and as experimental planning topics in the life sciences community for the next decades. It is expected that ecological life support systems can be tested and implemented on a space station towards the end of this century or early in the next. For the European activities a possible scenario can be projected based on ongoing life support system development activities and the present life sciences goals.

Skoog, A. I.↗

Guidance algorithms for a free-flying space robot

Robotics is a promising technology for assembly, servicing, and maintenance of platforms in space. Several aspects of planning and guidance for telesupervised and fully autonomous robotic servicers are investigated. Guidance algorithms for proximity operation of a free flyer are described. Numeric trajectory optimization is combined with artificial intelligence based obstacle avoidance. An initial algorithm and the results of its simulating platform servicing scenario are discussed. A second algorithm experiment is then proposed.

Brindle, A. F.↗

Research Opportunities in Nutrition and Metabolism in Space

The objectives of the Life Sciences Research Office (LSRO) study on nutrient requirements for meeting metabolic needs in manned space flights are as follows: review extant knowledge on the subject; identify significant gaps in knowledge; formulate suggestions for possible research; and produce a documented report of the foregoing items that can be used for program planning. In accordance with NASA's request for this study, the report focuses on issues of nutrition and metabolism that relate primarily to the contemplated United States Space Station, secondarily to the Shuttle Program as an orbital test bed for operational studies, and incidentally to scenarios for future long-term space flights. Members of the LSRO ad hoc Working Group on Nutrition and Metabolism were provided with pertinent articles and summaries on the subject. At the meeting of the Working Group, presentations were made by NASA Headquarters program staff on past experiences relative to space-flight nutrition and metabolism, as well as scenarios for future flights. The discussions of the ad hoc Working Group focused on the following: (1) metabolic needs related to work and exercise; (2) nutrients required to meet such needs; (3) food types, management, and records; and (4) nutritional amelioration or prevention of space-related physiological and behavioral changes.

Altman, Philip L.↗

Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation

Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support en-route flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.

Layton, Charles↗

Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation

Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support enroute flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.

Layton, Charles↗

Adjustably Autonomous Multi-agent Plan Execution with an Internal Spacecraft Free-Flying Robot Prototype

We present an multi-agent model-based autonomy architecture with monitoring, planning, diagnosis, and execution elements. We discuss an internal spacecraft free-flying robot prototype controlled by an implementation of this architecture and a ground test facility used for development. In addition, we discuss a simplified environment control life support system for the spacecraft domain also controlled by an implementation of this architecture. We discuss adjustable autonomy and how it applies to this architecture. We describe an interface that provides the user situation awareness of both autonomous systems and enables the user to dynamically edit the plans prior to and during execution as well as control these agents at various levels of autonomy. This interface also permits the agents to query the user or request the user to perform tasks to help achieve the commanded goals. We conclude by describing a scenario where these two agents and a human interact to cooperatively detect, diagnose and recover from a simulated spacecraft fault.

Dorais, Gregory A.↗

Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) Version 3

The Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) simulates a spacecraft power subsystem including the power source (solar array and/or radioisotope thermoelectric generator), bus-voltage control, secondary battery (lithium-ion or nickel-hydrogen), thermostatic heaters, and power-consuming equipment. It handles multiple mission types including heliocentric orbiters, planetary orbiters, and surface operations. Being parametrically driven along with its user-programmable features can reduce or even eliminate any need for software modifications when configuring it for a particular spacecraft. It provides multiple levels of fidelity, thereby fulfilling the vast majority of a project s power simulation needs throughout the lifecycle. It can operate in a stand-alone mode with a graphical user interface, in batch mode, or as a library linked with other tools. This software can simulate all major aspects of a spacecraft power subsystem. It is parametrically driven to reduce or eliminate the need for a programmer. Added flexibility is provided through user-designed state models and table-driven parameters. MMPAT is designed to be used by a variety of users, such as power subsystem engineers for sizing power subsystem components; mission planners for adjusting mission scenarios using power profiles generated by the model; system engineers for performing system- level trade studies using the results of the model during the early design phases of a spacecraft; and operations personnel for high-fidelity modeling of the essential power aspect of the planning picture.

Wood, Eric G.↗

Measuring Economy-Wide Circularity of the United States: An Input-Output Model in Mass Units

The ideal of creating closed material cycles by transforming the way we make, use and repurpose goods has become known as the circular economy. Besides its visionary appeal, material efficiency strategies central to circular economy can allow us to meet decarbonization goals that are otherwise out of reach. Production of basic materials such as cement, iron and steel and petrochemicals is one of the largest drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. Measuring circularity, and understanding its relationship with other sustainability metrics, however, is still difficult due to lack of data in mass units covering the entire economic system. Input-output (I-O) tables were originally created as a means of tracking the monetary flows that represent exchanges of goods and services within an economy, but have found additional uses in life cycle assessment and material flow accounts. In the traditional approach of environmentally extended I-O tables, emissions and energy data augment monetary flows. This approach can lead to price effects that distort physical quantities. Also, circular economy strategies and their goals relate to mass, not monetary flows. Therefore, it is best to simulate them using physical quantities. With these issues in mind, we have developed I-O tables in mass units to measure the flow of goods in the U.S. economy. This allows us to better measure how circular the economy really is, and how policy changes to affect this circularity may also affect decarbonization goals. Improving knowledge of these linkages could allow manufacturers to make changes in their production to achieve their sustainability and decarbonization targets. Our tool also provides a standard approach and public repository for data in physical units, making such data more available, useful, and meaningful. Following an established set of material flow metrics used by the European Union, we have used our tool to calculate material footprints over time differentiated by oil and gas versus other extractive industries. This approach also shows the relative trade balances of the U.S. in materials. We have developed a case study for the iron and steel sector, showing how different decarbonization scenarios affect not only economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions, but also total material use.

circular economy↗

Evaluation of a Dispatcher's Route Optimization Decision Aid to Avoid Aviation Weather Hazards

This document describes the results and analysis of the formal evaluation plan for the Honeywell software tool developed under the NASA AWIN (Aviation Weather Information) 'Weather Avoidance using Route Optimization as a Decision Aid' project. The software tool aims to provide airline dispatchers with a decision aid for selecting optimal routes that avoid weather and other hazards. This evaluation compares and contrasts route selection performance with the AWIN tool to that of subjects using a more traditional dispatcher environment. The evaluation assesses gains in safety, in fuel efficiency of planned routes, and in time efficiency in the pre-flight dispatch process through the use of the AWIN decision aid. In addition, we are interested in how this AWIN tool affects constructs that can be related to performance. The construct of Situation Awareness (SA), workload, trust in an information system, and operator acceptance are assessed using established scales, where these exist, as well as through the evaluation of questionnaire responses and subject comments. The intention of the experiment is to set up a simulated operations area for the dispatchers to work in. They will be given scenarios in which they are presented with stored company routes for a particular city-pair and aircraft type. A diverse set of external weather information sources is represented by a stand-alone display (MOCK), containing the actual historical weather data typically used by dispatchers. There is also the possibility of presenting selected weather data on the route visualization tool. The company routes have not been modified to avoid the weather except in the case of one additional route generated by the Honeywell prototype flight planning system. The dispatcher will be required to choose the most appropriate and efficient flight plan route in the displayed weather conditions. The route may be modified manually or may be chosen from those automatically displayed.

Dorneich, Michael C.↗

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

Hydrology↗

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Launch System KSC facilities and operations

The current planning for the launch site ground operations and facilities required at the Kennedy Space Center to accommodate the National Launch System (NLS) are described. Special consideration is given to the program activities associated with reducing costs for ground operations and with the ground operations vehicle processing scenarios for launching the NLS vehicles from KSC. The KSC facilities described include the Payload Encapsulation Facility, the Mobile Launcher Platform, and the Cargo Transfer Vehicle Checkout Facility. Attention is also given to the modifications of existing facilities required to accommodate the NLS facilities and the transportation and handling equipment.

Evans, R. T., Jr.↗