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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A Higher Fidelity Cost Analysis of Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure

The vastness of the worlds oceans makes the low concentration of naturally existing uranium, 3.3 ppb, appealing as a recoverable natural resource. Although ample uranium is available currently through conventional means, uranium from seawater is a widely studied topic due to the long term security it can assure the nuclear fuel cycle. It is important to mention that seawater uranium is not meant to act as a direct competitor to terrestrial uranium, but instead create a cost ceiling that provides economic stability and potential savings. Additionally, seawater uranium could circumvent some of the environmental impacts associated with recovery of any land based resource. The system currently studied by a nation-wide consortium of national lab and university partners involves the passive recovery of uranium using polymer based adsorbents. High Density Polyethylene fibers undergo a radiation induced graft co-polymerization process involving amidoxime, to attract uranium, and a polar co-monomer to increase hydrophilicity. After further chemical conditioning adsorbent fibers are braided into 60 meter strands for marine deployment. Braids are moored to the ocean floor for the duration of their soaking campaign. After sufficient seawater exposure they are winched up so the adsorbed uranium may be eluted off the braids. This deployment and elution process is repeated multiple times before the adsorbent's ultimate disposal, where its lifetime is dictated by the degradation it suffers with each re-cycle. Previous economic analyses have identified the adsorbent production and mooring as the most expensive components of the recovery process. Therefore, a later publication by Picard et al. proposed an alternative deployment method in an effort to reduce seawater uranium production cost. The Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure (WUSABI) couples uranium recovery with off shore wind to reduce mooring capital cost. The uranium harvesting structure attached to the underwater base of the wind turbine supports elution tanks and an adsorbent pulley system. This allows for a nearly autonomous mooring and elution procedure as adsorbent is in constant motion, reaching the elution tanks at the end of its soaking campaign. Although the original publication did include a short economic section, further analysis was carried out to provide a higher fidelity production cost estimate for uranium recovered by this system. Sufficient detail was provided regarding the capital and operating costs of the novel uranium harvesting units. The adsorbent production and uranium elution and purification steps however were estimated by simpler methods, for example applying a previously reported cost for producing a unit mass of adsorbent. This methodology, although satisfactory for the zeroth-order approximation desired in the original publication, overlooks many of the complexities and feedbacks embedded in the full cost model, which are necessary to provide a more accurate estimate. Perhaps more importantly, given the constant updates regarding adsorbent synthesis and performance this value quickly become outdated. Syncing an improved estimate for the WUSABI harvesting units with the existing economic analysis for adsorbent production and elution, which evolves in tandem with the technology, provides a more robust production cost estimate that will remain current over time. In addition to the updates and higher level of detail provided in this independent analysis, consistency in methodology allows for accurate comparison of uranium production costs across recovery methods. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Developing the Next Generation Shell Buckling Design Factors and Technologies

NASA s Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) Project was established in the spring of 2007 by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) in collaboration with the Constellation Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The SBKF project has the current goal of developing less-conservative, robust shell buckling design factors (a.k.a. knockdown factors) and design and analysis technologies for light-weight stiffened metallic launch vehicle (LV) structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles and can help mitigate some of NASA s LV development and performance risks. In particular, it is expected that the results from this project will help reduce the reliance on testing, provide high-fidelity estimates of structural performance, reliability, robustness, and enable increased payload capability. The SBKF project objectives and approach used to develop and validate new design technologies are presented, and provide a glimpse into the future of design of the next generation of buckling-critical launch vehicle structures.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

NUHOMS{sup R} EOS (Extended Optimized Storage): Robust, Advanced, and Dual Purpose Dry Storage System - 16472

AREVA TN has completed the design, analysis, and US NRC license submittal for the NUHOMS{sup R} Extended Optimized Storage (EOS) system. NUHOMS{sup R} EOS offers a large capacity and high heat load dry storage and transportation solution for UNF. EOS is not a new system, but an evolution of the already-proven safe and low-risk horizontal NUHOMS{sup R} storage system, which is one of the most widely used UNF dry storage systems in the United States. The EOS system features a 37PTH dry shielded canister (DSC) for 37 PWR UNF assemblies and an 89BTH DSC for the 89 BWR UNF assemblies. The EOS DSCs will be stored inside a horizontal storage module (HSM) that is a robust, fortress-like concrete storage overpack. Designed with the lessons learned from the Fukushima event in Japan in mind, EOS has robust margins for beyond design basis (BDB) events and offers the lowest risk and highest safety margin of any dry storage system design for recovery from BDB events. EOS also offers innovative aging management features with an aging management program (AMP) to assure safe and low dose long-term storage at the utility sites. EOS incorporates ports for AMP inspections and offers the option of using duplex stainless steel (DSS) for the DSC shell in order to negate corrosion issues. EOS is stored horizontally and above ground, making it easy and quick to access for visual inspection, monitoring, and mitigating actions during AMP. NUHOMS{sup R} EOS is optimized for high capacity, high burnup, high enrichments, and very low cooling times for UNF assemblies. It enables the highest heat load per canister (50 kW) and low dose rates. Even with high heat loads, EOS has significant margins to design basis limits. As the future of used fuel disposition will require the need to move fuel off-site to interim or consolidated storage, EOS is the ideal solution as it enables on-site loading and unloading operations that mitigate risk when transferring fuel on-site or transporting fuel off-site. The EOS design can be safely located in a traditional outdoor setting with fortress-like concrete reinforced modules that offer superior resistance to attack or can be safely operated inside of a building enclosure for those utilities desiring a more discreet siting for its used fuel storage systems. EOS has an innovative basket design that is made of high strength low alloy (HSLA) material and is easy to fabricate due to its non-welded design. Its innovative inlet and outlet air vent design, which incorporates dose reduction hardware, allows for optimal ambient airflow for highly efficient heat transfer with minimal radiation dose. The NUHOMS{sup R} EOS storage modules are interlocked in a side-by-side configuration offering superior and robust seismic performance. The license application for NUHOMS{sup R} EOS is currently under US NRC review and this system will be available for deployment in 2017. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study Numerical Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis using iTOUGH2 for West Virginia University

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. As a result, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided to use single permeability model for further analysis; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the perdition, therefore, is considered in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis are used for economic analysis. The dataset submitted here support the described study. Manuscript is submitted to Geothermics, will be linked once paper is accepted.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

EVOLUTION OF NEAR-SURFACE FLOWS INFERRED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION RING-DIAGRAM ANALYSIS

Ring-diagram analysis of acoustic waves observed at the photosphere can provide a relatively robust determination of the sub-surface flows at a particular time under a particular region. The depth of penetration of the waves is related to the size of the region, hence the depth extent of the measured flows is inversely proportional to the spatial resolution. Most ring-diagram analysis has focused on regions of extent ∼15° (180 Mm) or more in order to provide reasonable mode sets for inversions. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data analysis also provides a set of ring fit parameters on a scale three times smaller. These provide flow estimates for the outer 1% (7 Mm) of the Sun only, with very limited depth resolution, but with spatial resolution adequate to map structures potentially associated with the belts and regions of magnetic activity. There are a number of systematic effects affecting the determination of flows from a local helioseismic analysis of regions over different parts of the observable disk, and not all of them are well understood. In this study we characterize those systematic effects with higher spatial resolution so that they may be accounted for more effectively in mapping the temporal and spatial evolution of the flows. Leaving open the question of the mean structure of the global meridional circulation and the differential rotation, we describe the near-surface flow anomalies in time and latitude corresponding to the torsional oscillation pattern in differential rotation and analogous patterns in the meridional cell structure as observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/HMI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Robust controllers for the Middeck Active Control Experiment using Popov controller synthesis

Recent work in robust control with real parameter uncertainties has focused on absolute stability and its connections to real mu theory. In particular, the research has investigated the Popov stability criterion and its associated Lur'e-Postnikov Liapunov functions. State space representations of this Popov stability analysis tests are included in an H2 design formulation to provide a powerful technique for robust controller synthesis. This synthesis approach uses a state space optimization procedure to design controllers that minimize an overbound of an H2 cost functional and satisfy stability analysis tests based on the Popov multiplier. The controller and stability multiplier coefficients are optimized simultaneously, which avoids the iteration and curve-fitting procedures required by the D-K algorithm of mu synthesis. While previous work has demonstrated this synthesis approach on benchmark control problems, the purpose of this paper is to use Popov controller synthesis to design robust compensators for the Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE).

How, Jonathan P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Distributed Trajectory-Oriented Approach to Managing Traffic Complexity

In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which ground-based service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. While its architecture becomes more distributed, the goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system remains to achieve objectives such as maintaining safety and efficiency. It is, therefore, critical to design appropriate control elements to ensure that aircraft and groundbased actions result in achieving these objectives without unduly restricting user-preferred trajectories. This paper presents a trajectory-oriented approach containing two such elements. One is a trajectory flexibility preservation function, by which aircraft plan their trajectories to preserve flexibility to accommodate unforeseen events. And the other is a trajectory constraint minimization function by which ground-based agents, in collaboration with air-based agents, impose just-enough restrictions on trajectories to achieve ATM objectives, such as separation assurance and flow management. The underlying hypothesis is that preserving trajectory flexibility of each individual aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by minimizing constraints without jeopardizing the intended ATM objectives. The paper presents conceptually how the two functions operate in a distributed control architecture that includes self separation. The paper illustrates the concept through hypothetical scenarios involving conflict resolution and flow management. It presents a functional analysis of the interaction and information flow between the functions. It also presents an analytical framework for defining metrics and developing methods to preserve trajectory flexibility and minimize its constraints. In this framework flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and the impact of constraints is illustrated through analysis of a trajectory solution space with limited degrees of freedom and in simple constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving a conflict.

Idris, Husni↗
NASA NTRS2019

Nasa Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Updated Requirements Architecture

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.

Newman, Lauri K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Updated Requirements Architecture

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.

Newman, L. K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hot-Carrier Injection and Millisecond Charge Separation from a Robust Heteroleptic Iron(II) Chromophore Immobilized on TiO 2

The synthesis, spectroscopic characterization, computational analysis, and photoelectrochemical behavior of a new iron-based chromophore, [(Cpy) 2 Fe- (deeb)](PF 6 ) 2 (Fe(Cpy) 2 (deeb)), where Cpy is 1-methyl-3-(2-pyridyl)imidazole and deeb is 4,4’-(CO 2 CH 2 CH 3 ) 2 -2,2’-bipyridine, is reported. Electrochemically reversible waves assigned to a metal-centered E o (Fe III/II ) = +0.48 and a ligand-centered E o (Fe 2+/+ ) = −1.47 V vs Fc +/0 reduction were evident in cyclic voltammetry measurements. The combination of a strong σ-donor and a π-acceptor lowered the energy of the metal-toligand charge-transfer (MLCT) excited state relative to the metal-centered state. Two MLCT transitions appear in the visible region at 424 and 580 nm. TDDFT calculations revealed that the lower-energy band was well formulated as Fe(II)→deeb, and the higher-energy transition was charge transfer to both the deeb and Cpy ligands. Resonance Raman spectroscopy supports these findings showing enhanced deeb vibrational modes with 532 nm excitation, both deeb and Cpy modes with 473 nm excitation, and exclusively Cpy with 405 nm excitation. Ultrafast spectroscopy reveals a short-lived (∼2 ps) MLCT excited state and a longer-lived (∼20 ps) metal-centered state. Efficient methods to deprotect the ester groups and anchor the complex to mesoporous TiO 2 (anatase) thin films in high surface coverages, Fe(Cpy) 2 (dcb)|TiO 2 σ = 3 × 10 −8 mol/cm 2 , were established. Pulsed light excitation of Fe(Cpy) 2 (dcb)|TiO 2 resulted in rapid excited state injection (k inj > 10 8 s −1 ) and formation of a charge-separated state, Fe III (Cpy) 2 (dcb)|TiO 2 (e), which persists on the millisecond time scale before returning cleanly to the ground state with secondorder kinetics. Injection yields measured 50 ns after light excitation were found to double from Φ = 0.15 with green (532 nm) light to 0.30 with blue (457 nm) light excitation. Incident photon-to-current efficiency (% IPCE) measurements as a function of excitation wavelength in a 0.5 M LiI/I 2 /CH 3 CN electrolyte provide clear evidence for band-selective “hot carrier” injection from the remote Cpy-localized excited state. Collectively, the spectroscopic and photoelectrochemical data indicate that a semiconductor can intercept hot electrons from iron chromophores even when the excited-state dipole is oriented away from the surface-anchoring ligand.

Charge transfer↗
NASA NTRS1987

Performance analysis of a hybrid ARQ error control scheme for near earth satellite communications

A robust error control coding scheme is presented. The scheme is a cascaded forward error correction (FEC) scheme supported by parity retransmissions for further error correction in the erroneous data words. The error performance and throughput efficiency of the scheme are analyzed. Two specific schemes are proposed for NASA near earth satellite communications. It is shown that both schemes provide high reliability and throughput efficiency even for high channel bit error rates in the range of .002. The schemes are suitable for high data rate file transfer.

Lin, Shu↗
NASA NTRS2004

Functional Groups Based on Leaf Physiology: Are they Spatially and Temporally Robust?

The functional grouping hypothesis, which suggests that complexity in ecosystem function can be simplified by grouping species with similar responses, was tested in the Florida scrub habitat. Functional groups were identified based on how species in fire maintained Florida scrub regulate exchange of carbon and water with the atmosphere as indicated by both instantaneous gas exchange measurements and integrated measures of function (%N, delta C-13, delta N-15, C-N ratio). Using cluster analysis, five distinct physiologically-based functional groups were identified in the fire maintained scrub. These functional groups were tested to determine if they were robust spatially, temporally, and with management regime. Analysis of Similarities (ANOSIM), a non-parametric multivariate analysis, indicated that these five physiologically-based groupings were not altered by plot differences (R = -0.115, p = 0.893) or by the three different management regimes; prescribed burn, mechanically treated and burn, and fire-suppressed (R = 0.018, p = 0.349). The physiological groupings also remained robust between the two climatically different years 1999 and 2000 (R = -0.027, p = 0.725). Easy-to-measure morphological characteristics indicating functional groups would be more practical for scaling and modeling ecosystem processes than detailed gas-exchange measurements, therefore we tested a variety of morphological characteristics as functional indicators. A combination of non-parametric multivariate techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis, non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling, and ANOSIM) were used to compare the ability of life form, leaf thickness, and specific leaf area classifications to identify the physiologically-based functional groups. Life form classifications (ANOSIM; R = 0.629, p 0.001) were able to depict the physiological groupings more adequately than either specific leaf area (ANOSIM; R = 0.426, p = 0.001) or leaf thickness (ANOSIM; R 0.344, p 0.001). The ability of life forms to depict the physiological groupings was improved by separating the parasitic Ximenia americana from the shrub category (ANOSIM; R = 0.794, p = 0.001). Therefore, a life form classification including parasites was determined to be a good indicator of the physiological processes of scrub species, and would be a useful method of grouping for scaling physiological processes to the ecosystem level.

Foster, Tammy E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Degradation Mechanisms in Reinforced Concrete Structures, Modeling and Risk Analysis

The overarching goal of this project is to complement ongoing Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS)-funded Grizzly concrete modeling development efforts by providing improved multi-physics models for incorporation into the Grizzly and BlackBear codes. Objectives of this work identified at the outset of this project include: 1. Coupling between mechanical damage and transport processes. The mechanical damage will be characterized by nonlinear mechanical constitutive models appropriate for concrete used in nuclear power plants (NPPs). 2. Improved representation of the coupling among the transport process, building on the current moisture and thermal transport models in Grizzly. The parameters for coupling among heat and mass transport in the multi-physics model will be experimentally determined. 3. Coupling among different scale levels of concrete constituents, fine and coarse aggregates, cement paste, hydration products, and pore structure. 4. Probabilistic analysis of the random nature of the heterogeneous concrete structure and the environmental factors (ambient temperature and humidity) and their multiple effects on concrete deterioration. 5. Benchmark verification, validation and uncertainty quantification of the thermo-hygro- chemo-mechanical (THCM) concrete formulation. The end goal of this work was to provide a comprehensive and robust simulation capability that can be applied at the engineering scale for analysis of realistic deterioration scenarios in NPP concrete structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vacancy-engineered nodal-line semimetals

Symmetry-enforced nodal-line semimetals are immune to perturbations that preserve the underlying symmetries. This intrinsic robustness enables investigations of fundamental phenomena and applications utilizing diverse materials design techniques. The drawback of symmetry-enforced nodal-line semimetals is that the crossings of energy bands are constrained to symmetry-invariant momenta in the Brillouin zone. On the other end are accidental nodal-line semimetals whose band crossings, not being enforced by symmetry, are easily destroyed by perturbations. Some accidental nodal-line semimetals have, however, the advantage that their band crossings can occur in generic locations in the Brillouin zone, and thus can be repositioned to tailor material properties. We show that lattice engineering with periodic distributions of vacancies yields a hybrid type of nodal-line semimetals which possess symmetry-enforced nodal lines and accidental nodal lines, with the latter endowed with an enhanced robustness to perturbations. Both types of nodal lines are explained by a symmetry analysis of an effective model which captures the relevant characteristics of the proposed materials, and are verified by first-principles calculations of vacancy-engineered borophene polymorphs. Our findings offer an alternative path to relying on complicated compounds to design robust nodal-line semimetals; one can instead remove atoms from a common monoatomic material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

A unified analysis of four cosmic shear surveys

In the past few years, several independent collaborations have presented cosmological constraints from tomographic cosmic shear analyses. These analyses differ in many aspects: the datasets, the shear and photometric redshift estimation algorithms, the theory model assumptions, and the inference pipelines. To assess the robustness of the existing cosmic shear results, we present in this paper a unified analysis of four of the recent cosmic shear surveys: the Deep Lens Survey (DLS), the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS), the Science Verification data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SV), and the 450 deg$^{2}$ release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-450). By using a unified pipeline, we show how the cosmological constraints are sensitive to the various details of the pipeline. We identify several analysis choices that can shift the cosmological constraints by a significant fraction of the uncertainties. For our fiducial analysis choice, considering a Gaussian covariance, conservative scale cuts, assuming no baryonic feedback contamination, identical cosmological parameter priors and intrinsic alignment treatments, we find the constraints (mean, 16% and 84% confidence intervals) on the parameter $S_{8}\equiv \sigma_{8}(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}$ to be $S_{8}=0.94_{-0.045}^{+0.046}$ (DLS), $0.66_{-0.071}^{+0.070}$ (CFHTLenS), $0.84_{-0.061}^{+0.062}$ (DES-SV) and $0.76_{-0.049}^{+0.048}$ (KiDS-450). From the goodness-of-fit and the Bayesian evidence ratio, we determine that amongst the four surveys, the two more recent surveys, DES-SV and KiDS-450, have acceptable goodness-of-fit and are consistent with each other. Furthermore the combined constraints are $S_{8}=0.79^{+0.042}_{-0.041}$, which is in good agreement with the first year of DES cosmic shear results and recent CMB constraints from the Planck satellite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic analysis of advanced small modular nuclear reactors

Here, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) represent a robust opportunity to develop low-carbon and reliable power with the potential to meet cost parity with conventional power systems. This study presents a detailed, bottom-up economic evaluation of a 12 × 77 MW e (924 MW e total) light-water SMR (LW-SMR) plant, a 4 × 262 MW e (1,048 MW e ) gas-cooled SMR (GC-SMR) plant, and a 5 × 200 MW e (1,000 MW e total) molten salt SMR (MS-SMR) plant. Cost estimates are derived from equipment costs, labor hours, material inputs, and process-engineering models. The advanced SMRs are compared to natural gas combined cycle plants with and without post-combustion carbon capture and a conventional large nuclear reactor. Overnight capital cost (OCC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates are developed. The OCC of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$4,844$/kW, $\$4,355$/kW, and $\$3,985$/kW respectively. The LCOE of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$89.6$/MWh, $\$81.5$/MWh, and $\$80.6$/MWh respectively. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed, for which the OCC and construction time of the LW-SMR is found to have a lower mean and standard deviation than a conventional large reactor. The LW-SMR OCC is found to have a mean of $\$5,233$/kW with a standard deviation of $\$658$/kW and a 90 % probability of remaining between $\$4,254$/kW and $\$6,399$/kW, while the construction duration is found to have a mean of 4.5 years with a standard deviation of 0.8 years and a 90 % probability of remaining between 3.4 and 6.0 years. The economic impact of economies of scale, simplification, modularization, and construction time for SMRs are discussed. Additionally, policy implications for direct SMR capital subsidies and the impact of a carbon tax on natural gas emissions are explored.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗