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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Global Experiences with HPC Operational Data Measurement, Collection and Analysis

As we move into the exascale era, supercomputers grow larger, denser, more heterogeneous, and ever more complex. Operating such machines reliably and efficiently requires deep insight into the operational parameters of the machine itself as well as its supporting infrastructure. To fulfill this need, early adopter sites have started the development and deployment of Operational Data Analytics (ODA) frameworks allowing the continuous monitoring, archiving, and analysis of near realtime performance data from the machine and infrastructure levels, providing immediately actionable information for multiple operational uses. To understand their ODA goals, requirements, and use cases, we have conducted a survey among eight early adopter sites from the US, Europe, and Japan that operate top 50 high-performance computing systems. We have assessed the technologies leveraged to build their ODA frameworks, identified use cases and other push and pull factors that drive the sites' ODA activities, and report on their operational lessons.

Ott, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Advanced High Torque Density Magnetically Geared Generator

The objective of this research project was to investigate the fundamental torque density limitations of multistage flux focusing magnetic gears and magnetically geared direct-drive generators for wind turbines. Magnetic gears create non-contact speed amplification by modulating the air-gap magnetic field harmonics created by magnetic rotors. By integrating a stator into the magnetic gear structure a very high torque density direct-drive generator can be created. Magnetic geared systems offer unique capabilities that are currently not available using existing mechanically geared systems, such as overload protection. Magnetic gears also offer the potential for higher reliability, higher efficiency and quieter operation than is currently achievable using a mechanically geared generator. By increasing reliability and design life magnetic gears could decrease the overall life-cycle costs when compared with equivalent mechanical or direct-drive drivetrains. This research project investigated and experimentally testing two sub-scale magnetic gearboxes (0.12 m diameter) and two large diameter magnetic gearboxes (0.56m and 0.63m diameter). The goal of the project was to demonstrate a torque density >300Nm/L for a multistage magnetic gearbox with integrated stator. A nested multistage magnetic gear structure was first proposed and studied. However, it was shown that the nested design greatly increased mechanical complexity and therefore a two-stage series typology was utilized. A multi-stage magnetic gear with a 59:1 gear ratio was successfully experimentally tested. A peak torque of 4.25 kN·m was measured and this resulted in an overall active region torque density of 141 N·m/L (when including support rings). The torque density was significantly reduced from what was computed using 2-D electromagnetic analysis. This reduction was due to the 3-D edge effects, increased power losses and the inclusion of additional mechanical support rings as well as other mechanical assembly design changes. At large diameters contiguous lamination parts could not be fabricated and so a segmented laminated rotor design had to be used. This reduced the mechanical strength of the design when compared to small diameter magnetic gears and resulted in the need for the addition of mechanical support rings to prevent deflection. The final experimentally tested design also had a high torque ripple and the power loss within the magnetic gear did not change significantly with load. This therefore resulted in the efficiency being high only at peak loads. Despite not experimentally achieving the 2-D calculated high torque density the analysis has shown that the problems encountered with the scaling can be overcome with careful design changes. For example, understanding the unique mechanical deflection requirements during the electromagnetic design of the large diameter magnetic gears is key to achieving both a high torque density based on the electromagnetic analysis and a high torque density based on the mechanical support needs. Furthermore, ensuring that end plates are made of non-conductive material and minimizing other conductive support elements within the magnetic structure is a key requirement for reducing eddy current losses. In summary, if the mechanical design can be made more robust and eddy current loss mitigation strategies are used in the mechanical design phase then the magnetic gear is capable of being scaled up whilst operating at a very high torque density. This will then enable it to be potentially performance and cost competitive with alternative direct-drive and mechanically geared wind turbine drivetrains.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stochastic analysis of surface metrology

The design and evaluation of the expected performance of optical systems require sophisticated and reliable information about the surface topography for planned optical elements before they are fabricated. Modern x-ray source facilities are reliant upon the availability of optics with unprecedented quality (surface slope accuracy <0.1 μrad). The problem is especially complex in the case of x-ray optics, particularly for the X-ray Surveyor under development and other missions. The high angular resolution and throughput of future x-ray space observatories requires hundreds of square meters of high-quality optics. The uniqueness of the optics and limited number of proficient vendors makes the fabrication extremely time consuming and expensive, mostly due to the limitations in accuracy and measurement rate of metrology used in fabrication. Here, we discuss improvements in metrology efficacy via comprehensive statistical analysis of a compact volume of metrology data. The data are considered stochastic, and a statistical model called invertible time-invariant linear filter (InTILF) is developed now for two-dimensional (2-D) surface profiles to provide compact description of the 2-D data in addition to one-dimensional data treated so far. The InTILF model captures stochastic patterns in the data and can be used as a quality metric and feedback to polishing processes, avoiding high-resolution metrology measurements over the entire optical surface. The modeling, implemented in our BeatMark™ software, allows simulating metrology data for optics made by the same vendor and technology. The data are vital for reliable specification for optical fabrication, to be exactly adequate for the required system performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Distinction of saffron cod ( Eleginus gracilis ) from several other gadid species by using microsatellite markers

Nine microsatellite loci isolated in saffron cod ( Eleginus gracilis ) have potential applications for population genetics. Polymerase chain reaction products of samples of E. gracilis from northwestern Alaska amplified reliably, produced only one or two microsatellite bands, and had no apparent homozygote excess. A collection of E. gracilis sampled in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) near Kodiak Island did not amplify reliably at one locus, and allele frequency profiles clustered distinctly (with principal component analysis [PCA]) from the northwestern Alaska collection. Northwestern Alaska and GOA E. gracilis collections were genetically different (on the basis of a standardized genetic differentiation measure [ G ' ST ]=0.313, chord distance [ D chord ]=0.078, P<0.0001) and differed in expected aver-age heterozygosities at shared loci (0.859 and 0.689, respectively). We tested the microsatellite primers on other gadid species endemic to the northern Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea, and Arctic Ocean for cross-species amplification. Not all loci amplified reliably in navaga ( E. nawaga ), Pacific tomcod ( Microgadus proximus ), Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ), Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ), or walleye pollock ( G. chalcogrammus ). Reliable loci varied in microsatellite size profiles and produced distinct PCA clusters and accurate genotype assignments that allowed accurate species identification. Furthermore the identifications support previous morphological and genetically determined systematic classifications and distinguished the geographically separated collections of E. gracilis .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid HEFA-HDCJ Process for the Production of Jet Fuel Blendstocks

The hydrotreatment of bio-oil derived from the pyrolysis and biocrude from hydrothermal liquefaction of lignocellulosic materials to produce hydrocarbons faces significant technological challenges, mainly due to the high reactivity and poor thermal stability of bio-oil, resulting in the formation of large quantities of coke. This problem has been addressed by existing PNNL patents with a two-step hydrotreatment technology in which the bio-oil is first stabilized with a noble hydrogenation metal (often Pt or Ru). Then, in the second step, the bio-oil is deoxygenated with a Ni-Mo or Co-Mo sulfide catalyst. The main problem with this approach is that the Pt/Ru catalysts deactivate easily in the presence of S or other impurities, which are commonly present in pyrolysis oils. In this project, we explored technological solutions to mitigate coke formation, avoiding the use of Pt/Ru catalysts. Our strategy is based on three actions: (1) Bio-oil stabilization in the presence of alcohols. In this project, we studied the stabilization with butanol. (2) the use of a cosolvent to solubilize the bio-oil. Because coke formation reactions are second-order reactions a reduction in the concentration of reactive bio-oil molecules. In this case, we used yellow greases as a co-solvent. (3) Separation of bio-oil reactive fractions. In this project, we studied the removal of water-soluble fractions. Our batch co-hydrotreatment studies confirmed that the addition of butanol and methanol and the blend with lipids effectively contributed to mitigating coke formation (reducing coke yield to about 1 wt.% %). The removal of sugars did not have a noticeable effect on the overall coke yield, suggesting that coke precursors are present in all bio-oil fractions. Our analytical work suggests that they may be concentrated in the water-insoluble/CH 2 Cl 2 insoluble fractions of pyrolysis oils. Although the technological strategies tested resulted in significant coke reductions, the levels achieved were not sufficiently low to ensure a reliable operation in continuous, fixed-bed trickle-bed reactors. Long runs of more than 100 hours (maximum: 255 h) of co-processing time on stream were achieved in a continuous 40 mL reactor. When the same test was conducted in a larger 400 mL reactor, pressure drop increases associated with coke formation were observed. This increase in coke formation could be due to larger temperature gradients in the bed. Hydrodeoxygenation tests in moving bed reactors and using more active hydrogenation catalysts (for example Ni) could lead to more reliable operations. Unfortunately, our team did not have access to such experimental setups. The technoeconomic analysis suggests that although alcohol use is an effective means to reduce coke formation, the use of alcohol increases production cost. Thus, its use needs to be minimized. A delicate balance needs to be found between the use of technological solutions that allow the reliable operation of the system (stabilization with Ni catalysts, use of small quantities of solvents, processing in moving bed reactors) with a tolerable level of coke formation for the hydrodeoxygenation reactor used and that result in minimum production costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in soft X-ray RIXS for studying redox reaction states in batteries

Redox (reduction and oxidation) chemistry provides the fundamental basis for numerous energy-related electrochemical devices. Detecting the electrochemical redox chemistry is pivotal but challenging because it requires independent probes of the cationic and anionic redox states at different electrochemical states. Here, the synchrotron-based soft X-ray mapping of resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (mRIXS) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for exploring such states in electrochemical devices, especially batteries. High-efficiency mRIXS covers the energy range of the absorption edge with the extra dimension of information on the emitted photon energies. In this frontier article, we review recent representative demonstrations of utilizing soft X-ray mRIXS for detecting the novel chemical state during electrochemical operation and for quantifying the cationic redox reactions through inverse partial fluorescence yield analysis (mRIXS-iPFY). More importantly, the non-divalent states of oxygen in electrodes involving oxygen redox reactions could be reliably captured by mRIXS, with its reversibility quantified by the intensity variation of the characteristic mRIXS feature through a super-partial fluorescence yield analysis (mRIXS-sPFY). These recent demonstrations inspire future perspectives on using mRIXS for studying the complex phenomena in energy materials, with both technical and scientific challenges in RIXS theory, in situ/operando experiments, and spatially resolved RIXS imaging.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Heat Flow and Current Distribution Analysis in the Bottom Anode of an Electric Arc Furnace Using Fiber-Optic Sensors

A reliable method for monitoring bottom anode wear during DC Electric Arc Furnace (DC-EAF) operation is of critical importance for safe and efficient steel production. Underestimation of bottom wear poses a serious safety risk that must be avoided, while overestimation of bottom wear also poses challenges, as premature anode replacement is expensive and affects EAF productivity. Previously, we demonstrated that fiber-optic sensors can be successfully deployed to create a spatially distributed temperature map to monitor the health of the anode. The present work explores the heat flow and current density distribution in bottom anode pins to predict bottom wear, steel penetration events, and monitor refractory erosion. Small dynamic variations in pin temperature induced by joule heating during arcing also provide a means to observe local current flows in each pin. When mapped, these measurements provide a real-time view of the non-uniform and dynamic current flow in the bottom anode during EAF operation that can affect bottom wear.

Bottom Anode↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-C-9A-02: Structured Noise Index as An Automated Quality Control for Nuclear Medicine: A Two Year Experience

Purpose: Flood-field uniformity evaluation is an essential element in the assessment of nuclear medicine (NM) gamma cameras. It serves as the central element of the quality control (QC) program, acquired and analyzed on a daily basis prior to clinical imaging. Uniformity images are traditionally analyzed using pixel value-based metrics which often fail to capture subtle structure and patterns caused by changes in gamma camera performance requiring additional visual inspection which is subjective and time demanding. The goal of this project was to develop and implement a robust QC metrology for NM that is effective in identifying non-uniformity issues, reporting issues in a timely manner for efficient correction prior to clinical involvement, all incorporated into an automated effortless workflow, and to characterize the program over a two year period. Methods: A new quantitative uniformity analysis metric was developed based on 2D noise power spectrum metrology and confirmed based on expert observer visual analysis. The metric, termed Structured Noise Index (SNI) was then integrated into an automated program to analyze, archive, and report on daily NM QC uniformity images. The effectiveness of the program was evaluated over a period of 2 years. Results: The SNI metric successfully identified visually apparent non-uniformities overlooked by the pixel valuebased analysis methods. Implementation of the program has resulted in nonuniformity identification in about 12% of daily flood images. In addition, due to the vigilance of staff response, the percentage of days exceeding trigger value shows a decline over time. Conclusion: The SNI provides a robust quantification of the NM performance of gamma camera uniformity. It operates seamlessly across a fleet of multiple camera models. The automated process provides effective workflow within the NM spectra between physicist, technologist, and clinical engineer. The reliability of this process has made it the preferred platform for NM uniformity analysis.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) w/Variable Speed Technology

This report summarizes the results of a three year program awarded to Unico, Inc. to commercialize a residential cold climate heat pump. Several designs were investigated. Compressors were selected using analysis from Oakridge National Laboratories followed by prototype construction and lab testing in a specially built environmental chamber capable of reaching -30°F. The initial design utilized two variable speed compressors in series with very good capacity results and acceptable efficiency at very cold temperatures. The design was then modified to reduce cost and complexity by redesigning the system using three dual-stage compressors: two in parallel followed by one in series. Extensive testing found significant challenge with oil management, reliability, weight and cost which prevented the system from being fully commercialized. Further analysis of other conceptual designs indicated that these challenges could be overcome in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of MRI and cannabinoid type 1 receptor PET templates constructed using DARTEL for spatial normalization of rat brains

Purpose: Image registration is one prerequisite for the analysis of brain regions in magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) or positron-emission-tomography (PET) studies. Diffeomorphic anatomical registration through exponentiated Lie algebra (DARTEL) is a nonlinear, diffeomorphic algorithm for image registration and construction of image templates. The goal of this small animal study was (1) the evaluation of a MRI and calculation of several cannabinoid type 1 (CB1) receptor PET templates constructed using DARTEL and (2) the analysis of the image registration accuracy of MR and PET images to their DARTEL templates with reference to analytical and iterative PET reconstruction algorithms. Methods: Five male Sprague Dawley rats were investigated for template construction using MRI and [{sup 18}F]MK-9470 PET for CB1 receptor representation. PET images were reconstructed using the algorithms filtered back-projection, ordered subset expectation maximization in 2D, and maximum a posteriori in 3D. Landmarks were defined on each MR image, and templates were constructed under different settings, i.e., based on different tissue class images [gray matter (GM), white matter (WM), and GM + WM] and regularization forms (“linear elastic energy,” “membrane energy,” and “bending energy”). Registration accuracy for MRI and PET templates was evaluated by means of the distance between landmark coordinates. Results: The best MRI template was constructed based on gray and white matter images and the regularization form linear elastic energy. In this case, most distances between landmark coordinates were <1 mm. Accordingly, MRI-based spatial normalization was most accurate, but results of the PET-based spatial normalization were quite comparable. Conclusions: Image registration using DARTEL provides a standardized and automatic framework for small animal brain data analysis. The authors were able to show that this method works with high reliability and validity. Using DARTEL templates together with nonlinear registration algorithms allows for accurate spatial normalization of combined MRI/PET or PET-only studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-FG-201-01: 18-Month Clinical Experience of a Linac Daily Quality Assurance (QA) Solution Using Only EPID and OBI

Purpose: To describe the clinical use of a Linear Accelerator (Linac) DailyQA system with only EPID and OBI. To assess the reliability over an 18-month period and improve the robustness of this system based on QA failure analysis. Methods: A DailyQA solution utilizing an in-house designed phantom, combined EPID and OBI image acquisitions, and a web-based data analysis and reporting system was commissioned and used in our clinic to measure geometric, dosimetry and imaging components of a Varian Truebeam Linac. During an 18-month period (335 working days), the Daily QA results, including the output constancy, beam flatness and symmetry, uniformity, TPR20/10, MV and KV imaging quality, were collected and analyzed. For output constancy measurement, an independent monthly QA system with an ionization chamber (IC) and annual/incidental TG51 measurements with ADCL IC were performed and cross-compared to Daily QA system. Thorough analyses were performed on the recorded QA failures to evaluate the machine performance, optimize the data analysis algorithm, adjust the tolerance setting and improve the training procedure to prevent future failures. Results: A clinical workflow including beam delivery, data analysis, QA report generation and physics approval was established and optimized to suit daily clinical operation. The output tests over the 335 working day period cross-correlated with the monthly QA system within 1.3% and TG51 results within 1%. QA passed with one attempt on 236 days out of 335 days. Based on the QA failures analysis, the Gamma criteria is revised from (1%, 1mm) to (2%, 1mm) considering both QA accuracy and efficiency. Data analysis algorithm is improved to handle multiple entries for a repeating test. Conclusion: We described our 18-month clinical experience on a novel DailyQA system using only EPID and OBI. The long term data presented demonstrated the system is suitable and reliable for Linac daily QA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the accretion rates and radiative efficiencies of the highest-redshift quasars

We estimate the accretion rates onto the supermassive black holes that power 20 of the highest-redshift quasars, at z≳5.8, including the quasar with the highest redshift known to date—ULAS J1120 at z = 7.09. The analysis is based on the observed (rest-frame) optical luminosities and reliable “virial” estimates of the BH masses of the quasars, and utilizes scaling relations derived from thin accretion disk theory. The mass accretion rates through the postulated disks cover a wide range, M-dot {sub disk}≃4--190 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, with most of the objects (80%) having M-dot {sub disk}≃10--65 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, confirming the Eddington-limited nature of the accretion flows. By combining our estimates of M-dot {sub disk} with conservative, lower limits on the bolometric luminosities of the quasars, we investigate which alternative values of η best account for all the available data. We find that the vast majority of quasars (∼85%) can be explained with radiative efficiencies in the range η≃0.03--0.3, with a median value close to the commonly assumed η = 0.1. Within this range, we obtain conservative estimates of η≳0.14 for ULAS J1120 and SDSS J0100 (at z = 6.3), and of ≳0.19 for SDSS J1148 (at z=6.41; assuming their BH masses are accurate). The implied accretion timescales are generally in the range t{sub acc}≡M{sub BH}/ M-dot {sub BH}≃0.1--1 Gyr, suggesting that most quasars could have had ∼1--10 mass e-foldings since BH seed formation. Our analysis therefore demonstrates that the available luminosities and masses for the highest-redshift quasars can be explained self-consistently within the thin, radiatively efficient accretion disk paradigm. Episodes of radiatively inefficient, “super-critical” accretion may have occurred at significantly earlier epochs (i.e., z≳10).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Model-Based Integrated High Penetration Renewables Planning and Control Analysis

Increasing adoption of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) generation at the distribution level poses several changes for the reliable operation of electrical power distribution systems. The addition of a significant amount of PV to a distribution network can introduce a variety of operational problems, including steady-state overvoltages, reverse flows, voltage flicker and excessive controller movement among others. These adverse impacts can be mitigated through a variety of equipment upgrades which represent a cost to either the electric utility or the owner of the PV site. The study performed here aims to quantify the levels of PV generation which present operational problems on a distribution circuit and how those problems might be alleviated. The study performed here included 20 distribution feeders selected from Pepco Holdings, Inc. (PHI) service territory. These feeders are located in the states of Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. A hosting capacity study was performed on each feeder to determine how much additional PV it could support in its current configuration. Several improvements were then performed on these circuits including phase balancing, capacitor redesign, reducing the voltage regulator set points, fixed power factor operation on the PV inverters and the installation of battery storage. After each of these improvements the hosting capacity of the circuit was reevaluated in order to determine how that particular improvement impacted the amount of PV that could be hosted by the circuit. Each of these improvements represents a real cost in terms of labor and equipment in order to be implemented. They are expected to provide a benefit in terms of the amount of additional PV generation which can be safely interconnected to the distribution feeder. A cost benefit analysis was performed in order to evaluate the expected costs of each feeder improvement and how each one was able to increase the PV hosting capacity of each feeder. It is hoped that these results can be utilized by other distribution utilities in order to understand how they can improve the hosting capacity of their feeders and facilitate the deployment of more PV generation at the distribution level. Admittedly other utility companies will most likely have different feeder architectures and differing labor and equipment costs so the realized cost benefit numbers may be significantly different.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespans. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depend on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending the predictive power of perturbative QCD using the principle of maximum conformality and the Bayesian analysis

In addition to the evaluation of high-order loop contributions, the precision and predictive power of perturbative QCD (pQCD) predictions depends on two important issues: (1) how to achieve a reliable, convergent fixed-order series, and (2) how to reliably estimate the contributions of unknown higher-order terms. The recursive use of renormalization group equation, together with the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), eliminates the renormalization scheme-and-scale ambiguities of the conventional pQCD series. The result is a conformal, scale-invariant series of finite order which also satisfies all of the principles of the renormalization group. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian-based approach to estimate the size of the unknown higher order contributions based on an optimized analysis of probability distributions. We show that by using the PMC conformal series, in combination with the Bayesian analysis, one can consistently achieve high degree of reliability estimates for the unknown high order terms. Thus the predictive power of pQCD can be greatly improved. We illustrate this procedure for two pQCD observables: R e+e– and R τ , which are each known up to four loops in pQCD. Numerical analyses confirm that by using the scale-independent and more convergent PMC conformal series, one can achieve reliable Bayesian probability estimates for the unknown higher-order contributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

The IEC 61850 Sampled Measured Values Protocol: Analysis, Threat Identification, and Feasibility of Using NN Forecasters to Detect Spoofed Packets

The operation of the smart grid is anticipated to rely profoundly on distributed microprocessor-based control. Therefore, interoperability standards are needed to address the heterogeneous nature of the smart grid data. Since the IEC 61850 emerged as a wide-spread interoperability standard widely accepted by the industry, the Sampled Measured Values method has been used to communicate digitized voltage and current measurements. Realizing that current and voltage measurements (i.e., feedback measurements) are necessary for reliable and secure noperation of the power grid, firstly, this manuscript provides a detailed analysis of the Sampled Measured Values protocol emphasizing its advantages, then, it identifies vulnerabilities in this protocol and explains the cyber threats associated to these vulnerabilities. Secondly, current efforts to mitigate these vulnerabilities are outlined and the feasibility of using neural network forecasters to detect spoofed sampled values is investigated. It was shown that although such forecasters have high spoofed data detection accuracy, they are prone to the accumulation of forecasting error. Accordingly, this paper also proposes an algorithm to detect the accumulation of the forecasting error based on lightweight statistical indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is experimentally verified in a laboratory-scale smart grid testbed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗