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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Global Connections Between El Nino and Landslide Impacts

El Nino is a critical part of global inter-annual climate variability, and the intensity of El Nino has major implications for rainfall-induced natural hazards in many vulnerable countries. The impact of landslides triggered by rainfall is likely to be modulated by the strength of El Nino, but the nature of this connection and the places where it is most relevant remains unconstrained. Here we combine new satellite rainfall data with a global landslide exposure model to show that El Nino has far-reaching effects on landslide impacts to people and infrastructure. We find that the impact of El Nino on landslide exposure can be greater in parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America than that due to seasonal rainfall variability. These findings improve our understanding of hazard variability around the world and can assist disaster mitigation efforts on seasonal timescales.

Robert Emberson↗

Climate Conditions During a Rift Valley Fever Post-epizootic Period in Free State, South Africa, 2014–2019

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) activity in Southern Africa tends to occur during periods of sustained elevated rainfall, cooler than normal conditions, and abundant vegetation cover creating ideal conditions for the increase and propagation of populations of RVFV mosquito vectors. These climatic and ecological conditions are modulated by large-scale tropical-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The aim of this 5-year study was to investigate climatic conditions during Rift Valley fever “post-epizootic” period in Free State province of the Republic of South Africa, which historically experienced the largest RVF outbreaks in this country. We collected satellite-derived rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data since 2014 to understand broad environmental conditions in the years following a period of sustained and widespread large RVF outbreaks (2008–2011) in the region. We found this post-epizootic/interepizootic period to be characterized by below-normal rainfall (~-500 mm), above LSTs (~+12°C), depressed NDVI (60% below normal), and severe drought as manifested particularly during the 2015–2016 growing season. Such conditions reduce the patchwork of appropriate habitats available for emergence of RVFV vectors and diminish chances of RVFV activity. However, the 2016–2017 growing season saw a marked return to somewhat wetter conditions without any reported RVFV transmission. In general, the aggregate vector collections during this 5-year period follow patterns observed in climate measurements. During the 2017–2018 growing season, late and seasonally above average rainfall resulted in a focal RVF outbreak in one location in the study region. This unanticipated event is an indicator of cryptic RVF activity during post-epizootic period and may be a harbinger of RVFV activity in the coming years.

climate variability↗

Evaluation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Over the Land-Coast-Ocean Continuum – Part Ii: Quantification

To understand and manage water systems under a changing climate and meet an increasing demand for water, a quantitative understanding of precipitation is most important in coastal regions. The capabilities of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06B product for precipitation quantification are examined over three coastal regions of the United States: the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East Coast, all of which are characterized by different topographies and precipitation climatologies. A novel uncertainty analysis of IMERG is proposed that considers environmental and physical parameters such as elevation and distance to the coastline. The IMERG performance is traced back to its components, i.e., passive microwave (PMW), infrared (IR), and morphing-based estimates. The analysis is performed using high-resolution, high-quality Ground Validation Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) rainfall estimates as ground reference at the native resolution of IMERG of 30 min and 0.1°. IMERG Final (IM-F) quantification performance heavily depends on the respective contribution of PMW, IR, and morph components. IM-F and its components overestimate the contribution of light rainfall (<1 mm h−1) and underestimate the contribution of high rainfall rates (>10 mm h−1) to the total rainfall volume. Strong regional dependencies are highlighted, especially over the West Coast, where the proximity of complex terrain to the coastline challenges precipitation estimates. Other major drivers are the distance from the coastline, elevation, and precipitation types, especially over the land and coast surface types, that highlight the impact of precipitation regimes.

Atmosphere↗

Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): Global Ensemble Landslide Hazard Modelling

In this study we present a model for the global Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS). PHELS estimates the daily hazard of hydrologically triggered landslides at a coarse spatial resolution of 36 km, by combining landslide susceptibility (LSS) and (percentiles of) hydrological variable(s). The latter include daily rainfall, a 7-day antecedent rainfall index (ARI7) or root-zone soil moisture content (rzmc) as hydrological predictor variables, or the combination of rainfall and rzmc. The hazard estimates with any of these predictor variables have areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) above 0.68. The best performance was found with combined rainfall and rzmc predictors (AUC = 0.79), which resulted in the lowest number of missed alarms (especially during spring) and false alarms. Furthermore, PHELS provides hazard uncertainty estimates by generating ensemble simulations based on repeated sampling of LSS and the hydrological predictor variables. The estimated hazard uncertainty follows the behaviour of the input variable uncertainties, is about 13.6 % of the estimated hazard value on average across the globe and in time and is smallest for very low and very high hazard values.

Anne Felsberg↗

Pollen and Bio-Soiling in the Southeast U.S.

Typical PV soiling models presume that soiling follows a sawtooth pattern: linear soiling during dry periods followed by abrupt recovery or cleaning during rainfall events. Due to frequency of rainfall in the in the eastern U.S. sawtooth soiling models report near zero soiling losses in this region. Alternatively, through work with system owner/operators per NREL's PVfleet project it has become clear that there are systems in the Southeast that have soiled as high as 10% which are not recovering with regular rainfall. The current hypothesis is that sticky soiling due to pollen or other biological sources is persistent to rainfall removal. Field data and the latest progress towards de-risking bio-soiling will be presented.

photovoltaic↗

Relating flow resistance to equivalent roughness

Describing flow resistance using the physical properties of an underlying surface is a recalcitrant problem in overland flow models. If discharge measurements are available, an equivalent roughness (e.g., Manning’s n) can be calibrated to represent the effects of surface properties within the domain with a single numerical value. Alternatively, the flow resistance can be estimated from discharge and velocity measured at a point, typically a runoff plot outlet. However, such experimental estimates are often inconsistent with the equivalent roughness determined from calibration to discharge, even if both derive from the same dataset. For example, if Manning’s equation is used to parameterize flow resistance, the Manning’s n obtained by calibrating a model to discharge differs from the value of n calculated from measured flow and velocity at the hillslope outlet. Here, this discrepancy is resolved by deriving a correction factor relating experimentally-determined flow resistance to the equivalent roughness. The derived correction factor is tested for four commonly-used resistance formulations using 129 rainfall simulator experiments. The correction factor is necessary to reproduce measured velocities, and yields minor improvements in discharge prediction. Plain Language Summary: Accurate runoff prediction is needed for land and water management in dryland regions, where sporadic and limited rainfall necessitate efficient water use and drought mitigation strategies. The skill of runoff models is known to be hindered by out ability to estimate flow resistance, which is the quantity that describes how energy is lost from flowing water to the underlying surface. Typically, models represent flow resistance with an equivalent roughness, e.g., Manning’s n, that is adjusted until the model can reproduce available discharge observations at watershed scale. However, the flow resistance measured in plot-scale experiments (1–10 m) often exceeds equivalent roughness coefficients by a factor of 10. This means that the direct use of plot-scale experimental data to parameterize runoff models could cause errors in discharge and runoff velocity predictions. Here, we resolve these differences by deriving an analytic correction factor that relates flow resistance to the equivalent roughness required for models to reproduce experimental velocity and discharge data. This correction factor is tested using rainfall simulator data from 129 experiments performed in the US Southwest covering a wide range of precipitation intensities, soil textures and vegetation types. Use of the correction factor substantially improves model prediction of flow velocity, which is needed for reproducing the timing of flood events and the estimation of erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal–moisture dynamics of embankments with asphalt pavement in permafrost regions of central Tibetan Plateau

Subsurface moisture content is one of the critical factors that control the thermal dynamics of embankments. However, information on the subsurface moisture movement and distribution in embankments is still limited. To better understand the coupled water and heat transport within embankments, subsurface temperature and moisture of an asphalt pavement highway were extensively measured from 2009 to 2011. Collected data indicate that pure heat conduction is the overall main mechanism of heat transport in the embankment and heat convection plays a relatively unimportant role in heat transport. The results also indicate that subsurface moisture and temperature dynamics in the asphalt layer is strongly related to the rainfall events, while the subsurface moisture content below the road base course maintains relatively constant. Rainfall in summer leads to rapid cooling of the subsurface soil. Our results suggest that frequent and small rainfall events favour the thermal stability of the embankment due to the loss of latent heat of water evaporation. Moisture migration during freezing still occurred in the gravel fill and the water infiltrated into the active layer during thawing period. Freezing-induced water migration may result in the increase in water content of the embankment and the decrease in compactness of gravel fill.

asphalt pavement↗

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spacebased Observations of Oceanic Influence on the Annual Variation of South American Water Balance

The mass change of South America (SA) continent measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) imposes a constraint on the uncertainties in estimating the annual variation of rainfall measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ocean moisture influx derived from QuikSCAT data. The approximate balance of the mass change rate with the moisture influx less climatological river discharge, in agreement with the conservation principle, bolsters not only the credibility of the spacebased measurements, but supports the characterization of ocean's influence on the annual variation of continental water balance. The annual variation of rainfall is found to be in phase with the mass change rate in the Amazon and the La Plata basins, and the moisture advection across relevant segments of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts agrees with the annual cycle of rainfall in the two basins and the Andes mountains.

rainfall annual cycle↗

Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

remote sensing↗

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Here, many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of the three components of a model evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20 day hindcasts, initialized daily during two MJO events in winter 2009–2010. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8–11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to midlevel moistening at moderate rainfall and upper level moistening for heavy rainfall. The midlevel moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of a Simple Convective Organization Scheme in a Two‐Plume GCM

Abstract A set of experiments is described with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) using a two‐plume convection scheme. To represent the differences of organized convection from General Circulation Model (GCM) assumptions of isolated plumes in uniform environments, a dimensionless prognostic “organization” tracer Ω is invoked to lend the second plume a buoyancy advantage relative to the first, as described in Mapes and Neale (2016). When low‐entrainment plumes are unconditionally available (Ω = 1 everywhere), deep convection occurs too easily, with consequences including premature (upstream) rainfall in inflows to the deep tropics, excessive convective versus large‐scale rainfall, poor relationships to the vapor field, stable bias in the mean state, weak and poor tropical variability, and midday peak in diurnal rainfall over land. Some of these are shown to also be characteristic of CAM4 with its separated deep and shallow convection schemes. When low‐entrainment plumes are forbidden by setting Ω = 0 everywhere, some opposite problems can be discerned. In between those extreme cases, an interactive Ω driven by the evaporation of precipitation acts as a local positive feedback loop, concentrating deep convection: In areas of little recent rain, only highly entraining plumes can occur, unfavorable for rain production. This tunable mechanism steadily increases precipitation variance in both space and time, as illustrated here with maps, time‐longitude series, and spectra, while avoiding some mean state biases as illustrated with process‐oriented diagnostics such as conserved variable profiles and vapor‐binned precipitation curves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thawing seasonal ground ice: An important water source for boreal forest plants in Interior Alaska

Little is known about the ecological impacts of permafrost degradation on water fluxes in boreal ecosystems, such as those in Interior Alaska. Low plant water stress suggests a reliance on a diversity of water sources. In addition to rainfall, we hypothesize that deep soil water derived from thawing seasonal ground ice (TSGI) supports plants during dry periods. We analyzed water stable isotopes from soils, plants, ice, and rain collected from stable and unstable permafrost sites. We found that TSGI provides a background water source for plants during wet years (at least 10–20%) and a stable source during dry years (at least 30–50%) and early in the growing season (60–80% in wet and dry years). Plant water uptake patterns “track” the soil thawing front, using deep and shallow layers in wet years and deep layers during dry years. This plasticity allows boreal plants to cope with seasonal drought and exploit available water sources. The availability of TGSI depends on the amount of rainfall the prior year and on permafrost stability. Thawing permafrost may reduce the buffering capacity of TGSI due to less seasonal ice from greater drainage and/or a deeper active layer. This study demonstrates the importance of two buffering mechanisms for plants to cope with rainfall variability within boreal forest underlain by permafrost—availability of TSGI and plasticity in water uptake patterns. We suggest that plant utilization of stored water may be why evapotranspiration in northern latitudes can exceed growing season precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Civil infrastructure such as culverts and bridges are commonly designed using precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation is in the form of rainfall and immediately available for the rainfall-runoff process. In snow-dominated regions, where most winter precipitation occurs as snow that melts during spring to early summer, the use of standard PREC-IDF curves may lead to substantial underestimation of design floods and high failure risk of infrastructure. In this context, we developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that characterize the actual water reaching the land surface (i.e., rainfall plus snowmelt) to enhance standard infrastructure design in snow-dominated regions. This study evaluates the performance of NG-IDF curves coupled with U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Release 55 hydrologic model in estimating design floods for 246 snowy locations in different hydroclimate regimes of the western United States. Design flood estimates from a well-validated continuous simulation using a physics-based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), were used as the performance benchmark. Compared with the benchmark estimates, the standard PREC-IDF curves led to substantial errors in design flood estimates while the NG-IDF curves significantly reduced these errors. For example, the averaged error in the 50-year design flood estimates over the 246 locations was reduced from 31% with the use of PREC-IDF curves to 12% with the use of NG-IDF curves. Despite the different model structures, the single-event NG-IDF approach versus the continuous simulation DHSVM did not exhibit statistically significant differences in 91% of the 246 locations for the 50-year design flood estimates. We find this indicates a satisfactory performance of NG-IDF curves to estimate design flow under the conditions tested in the snow-dominated western United States. This article also presents technical suggestions and the limitations of infrastructure design using NG-IDF curves for regulatory agencies and practicing engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of plateau, slope, and valley on soil hydrology during the dry season in a Central Amazon old‐growth forest

Soil moisture regulates plant water supply and drought sensitivity in tropical forests, yet its vertical and topographic variation remains poorly characterized. We combined high-frequency time-domain reflectometry measurements from 5 to 100 cm across plateau, slope, and valley landforms at the Zona Florestal 2 research site north of Manaus, Central Amazonia, to quantify how soil moisture memory, timing of responses to rainfall, dry-down rates (τ), and soil–water depletion vary across these contrasting landforms. Landform-specific soil moisture calibration curves ensured accurate volumetric water content estimates in these highly weathered soils. During the 2023 dry-to-wet transition (August–November), soil moisture memory showed strong topographic contrasts, with valley profiles increasing from ∼47 h at 5 cm to ∼154 h at 100 cm, while plateaus exhibited higher near-surface persistence (∼124 h at 5 cm) but weaker memory at depth. Dry-down behavior reinforced these differences as valley soils exhibited τ values exceeding ∼200 h, more than double the characteristic τ of plateau soils (∼90 h). Rainfall–soil moisture correlations indicated immediate responses at shallow depths in valleys and progressively longer lags with depth on plateaus and slopes. These hydrologic patterns were mirrored in depletion profiles, which declined sharply below 30 cm on plateaus but remained high and sustained throughout the upper meter in slopes and valleys. Together, these findings provide the first depth-resolved field measurements of soil moisture memory, rainfall coupling, dry-down constants, and depletion dynamics across major upland landforms in Central Amazonia and offer clear observational benchmarks for improving land-surface and ecosystem model representations of soil–water processes.

Hillslope↗