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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

30 years of adaptive neural networks - Perceptron, Madaline, and backpropagation

Fundamental developments in feedforward artificial neural networks from the past thirty years are reviewed. The history, origination, operating characteristics, and basic theory of several supervised neural-network training algorithms (including the perceptron rule, the least-mean-square algorithm, three Madaline rules, and the backpropagation technique) are described. The concept underlying these iterative adaptation algorithms is the minimal disturbance principle, which suggests that during training it is advisable to inject new information into a network in a manner that disturbs stored information to the smallest extent possible. The two principal kinds of online rules that have developed for altering the weights of a network are examined for both single-threshold elements and multielement networks. They are error-correction rules, which alter the weights of a network to correct error in the output response to the present input pattern, and gradient rules, which alter the weights of a network during each pattern presentation by gradient descent with the objective of reducing mean-square error (averaged over all training patterns).

Widrow, Bernard↗
NASA NTRS1990

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

Drummond, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1994

SCL: An off-the-shelf system for spacecraft control

In this age of shrinking military, civil, and commercial space budgets, an off-the-shelf solution is needed to provide a multimission approach to spacecraft control. A standard operational interface which can be applied to multiple spacecraft allows a common approach to ground and space operations. A trend for many space programs has been to reduce operational staff by applying autonomy to the spacecraft and to the ground stations. The Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) system developed by Interface and Control Systems, Inc. (ICS) provides an off-the-shelf solution for spacecraft operations. The SCL system is designed to provide a hyper-scripting interface which remains standard from program to program. The spacecraft and ground station hardware specifics are isolated to provide the maximum amount of portability from system to system. Uplink and downlink interfaces are also isolated to allow the system to perform independent of the communications protocols chosen. The SCL system can be used for both the ground stations and the spacecraft, or as a value added package for existing ground station environments. The SCL system provides an expanded stored commanding capability as well as a rule-based expert system on-board. The expert system allows reactive control on-board the spacecraft for functions such as electrical power systems (EPS), thermal control, etc. which have traditionally been performed on the ground. The SCL rule and scripting capability share a common syntax allowing control of scripts from rules and rules from scripts. Rather than telemeter over sampled data to the ground, the SCL system maintains a database on-board which is available for interrogation by the scripts and rules. The SCL knowledge base is constructed on the ground and uploaded to the spacecraft. The SCL system follows an open-systems approach allowing other tasks to communicate with SCL on the ground and in space. The SCL system was used on the Clementine program (launched January 25, 1994) and is required to have bidirectional communications with the guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) algorithms which were written as another task. Sequencing of the spacecraft maneuvers are handled by SCL, but the low-level thruster pulse commands are handled by the GNC software. Attitude information is reported back as telemetry, allowing the SCL expert system to inference on the changing data. The Clementine SCL flight software was largely reused from another Naval Center for Space Technology (NCST) satellite program. This paper details the SCL architecture and how an off-the-shelf solution makes sense for multimission spacecraft programs. The Clementine mission will be used as a case study in the application of the SCL to a 'fast track' program. The benefits of such a system in a 'better, cheaper, faster' climate will be discussed.

Buckley, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1994

Expert system shell to reason on large amounts of data

The current data base management systems (DBMS's) do not provide a sophisticated environment to develop rule based expert systems applications. Some of the new DBMS's come with some sort of rule mechanism; these are active and deductive database systems. However, both of these are not featured enough to support full implementation based on rules. On the other hand, current expert system shells do not provide any link with external databases. That is, all the data are kept in the system working memory. Such working memory is maintained in main memory. For some applications the reduced size of the available working memory could represent a constraint for the development. Typically these are applications which require reasoning on huge amounts of data. All these data do not fit into the computer main memory. Moreover, in some cases these data can be already available in some database systems and continuously updated while the expert system is running. This paper proposes an architecture which employs knowledge discovering techniques to reduce the amount of data to be stored in the main memory; in this architecture a standard DBMS is coupled with a rule-based language. The data are stored into the DBMS. An interface between the two systems is responsible for inducing knowledge from the set of relations. Such induced knowledge is then transferred to the rule-based language working memory.

Giuffrida, Gionanni↗
NASA NTRS1996

Verification and Validation of KBS with Neural Network Components

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) play an important role in developing robust Knowledge Based Systems (KBS). The ANN based components used in these systems learn to give appropriate predictions through training with correct input-output data patterns. Unlike traditional KBS that depends on a rule database and a production engine, the ANN based system mimics the decisions of an expert without specifically formulating the if-than type of rules. In fact, the ANNs demonstrate their superiority when such if-then type of rules are hard to generate by human expert. Verification of traditional knowledge based system is based on the proof of consistency and completeness of the rule knowledge base and correctness of the production engine.These techniques, however, can not be directly applied to ANN based components.In this position paper, we propose a verification and validation procedure for KBS with ANN based components. The essence of the procedure is to obtain an accurate system specification through incremental modification of the specifications using an ANN rule extraction algorithm.

Wen, Wu↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗
NASA NTRS1997

ASICs Approach for the Implementation of a Symmetric Triangular Fuzzy Coprocessor and Its Application to Adaptive Filtering

This paper discusses the implementation of a fuzzy logic system using an ASICs design approach. The approach is based upon combining the inherent advantages of symmetric triangular membership functions and fuzzy singleton sets to obtain a novel structure for fuzzy logic system application development. The resulting structure utilizes a fuzzy static RAM to store the rule-base and the end-points of the triangular membership functions. This provides advantages over other approaches in which all sampled values of membership functions for all universes must be stored. The fuzzy coprocessor structure implements the fuzzification and defuzzification processes through a two-stage parallel pipeline architecture which is capable of executing complex fuzzy computations in less than 0.55us with an accuracy of more than 95%, thus making it suitable for a wide range of applications. Using the approach presented in this paper, a fuzzy logic rule-base can be directly downloaded via a host processor to an onchip rule-base memory with a size of 64 words. The fuzzy coprocessor's design supports up to 49 rules for seven fuzzy membership functions associated with each of the chip's two input variables. This feature allows designers to create fuzzy logic systems without the need for additional on-board memory. Finally, the paper reports on simulation studies that were conducted for several adaptive filter applications using the least mean squared adaptive algorithm for adjusting the knowledge rule-base.

Starks, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2003

Pilot Interactions in an Over-Constrained Conflict Scenario as Studied in a Piloted Simulation of Autonomous Aircraft Operations

Feasibility and safety of autonomous aircraft operations were studied in a multi-piloted simulation of overconstrained traffic conflicts to determine the need for, and utility of, priority flight rules to maintain safety in this extraordinary and potentially hazardous situation. An overconstrained traffic conflict is one in which the separation assurance objective is incompatible with other objectives. In addition, a proposed scheme for implementing priority flight rules by staggering the alerting time between the two aircraft in conflict was tested for effectiveness. The feasibility study was conducted through a simulation in the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at the NASA Langley Research Center. This research activity is a continuation of the Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management feasibility analysis reported in the 4th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar in December 2001 (paper #48). The over-constrained conflict scenario studied here consisted of two piloted aircraft that were assigned an identical en-route waypoint arrival time and altitude crossing restriction. The simulation results indicated that the pilots safely resolved the conflict without the need for a priority flight rule system. Occurrences of unnecessary maneuvering near the common waypoint were traced to false conflict alerts, generated as the result of including waypoint constraint information in the broadcast data link message issued from each aircraft. This result suggests that, in the conservative interests of safety, broadcast intent information should be based on the commanded trajectory and not on the Flight Management System flight plan, to which the aircraft may not actually adhere. The use of priority flight rules had no effect on the percentage of the aircraft population meeting completely predictable which aircraft in a given pair would meet the constraints and which aircraft would make the first maneuver to yield right-of-way. Therefore, the proposed scheme for implementing priority flight rules through staggering the alerting time between the two aircraft was completely effective. The data and observations from this experiment, together with results from the previously reported study, support the feasibility of autonomous aircraft operations.

Wing, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Gravitropic responses of the Avena coleoptile in space and on clinostats. II. Is reciprocity valid?

Experiments were undertaken to determine if the reciprocity rule is valid for gravitropic responses of oat coleoptiles in the acceleration region below 1 g. The rule predicts that the gravitropic response should be proportional to the product of the applied acceleration and the stimulation time. Seedlings were cultivated on 1 g centrifuges and transferred to test centrifuges to apply a transverse g-stimulation. Since responses occurred in microgravity, the uncertainties about the validity of clinostat simulation of weightlessness was avoided. Plants at two stages of coleoptile development were tested. Plant responses were obtained using time-lapse video recordings that were analyzed after the flight. Stimulus intensities and durations were varied and ranged from 0.1 to 1.0 g and from 2 to 130 min, respectively. For threshold g-doses the reciprocity rule was obeyed. The threshold dose was of the order of 55 g s and 120 g s, respectively, for two groups of plants investigated. Reciprocity was studied also at bending responses which are from just above the detectable level to about 10 degrees. The validity of the rule could not be confirmed for higher g-doses, chiefly because the data were more variable. It was investigated whether the uniformity of the overall response data increased when the gravitropic dose was defined as (gm x t) with m-values different from unity. This was not the case and the reciprocity concept is, therefore, valid also in the hypogravity region. The concept of gravitropic dose, the product of the transverse acceleration and the stimulation time, is also well-defined in the acceleration region studied. With the same hardware, tests were done on earth where responses occurred on clinostats. The results did not contradict the reciprocity rule but scatter in the data was large.

Flight Experiment↗
NASA NTRS1998

System and method for creating expert systems

A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

Hughes, Peter M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Guidelines for Code Generation in the Railway Signaling Context

Modeling guidelines constitute one of the fundamental cornerstones for Model Based Development. Their relevance is essential when dealing with code generation in the safety-critical domain. This article presents the experience of a railway signaling systems manufacturer on this issue. Introduction of Model-Based Development (MBD) and code generation in the industrial safety-critical sector created a crucial paradigm shift in the development process of dependable systems. While traditional software development focuses on the code, with MBD practices the focus shifts to model abstractions. The change has fundamental implications for safety-critical systems, which still need to guarantee a high degree of confidence also at code level. Usage of the Simulink/Stateflow platform for modeling, which is a de facto standard in control software development, does not ensure by itself production of high-quality dependable code. This issue has been addressed by companies through the definition of modeling rules imposing restrictions on the usage of design tools components, in order to enable production of qualified code. The MAAB Control Algorithm Modeling Guidelines (MathWorks Automotive Advisory Board)[3] is a well established set of publicly available rules for modeling with Simulink/Stateflow. This set of recommendations has been developed by a group of OEMs and suppliers of the automotive sector with the objective of enforcing and easing the usage of the MathWorks tools within the automotive industry. The guidelines have been published in 2001 and afterwords revisited in 2007 in order to integrate some additional rules developed by the Japanese division of MAAB [5]. The scope of the current edition of the guidelines ranges from model maintainability and readability to code generation issues. The rules are conceived as a reference baseline and therefore they need to be tailored to comply with the characteristics of each industrial context. Customization of these recommendations has been performed for the automotive control systems domain in order to enforce code generation [7]. The MAAB guidelines have been found profitable also in the aerospace/avionics sector [1] and they have been adopted by the MathWorks Aerospace Leadership Council (MALC). General Electric Transportation Systems (GETS) is a well known railway signaling systems manufacturer leading in Automatic Train Protection (ATP) systems technology. Inside an effort of adopting formal methods within its own development process, GETS decided to introduce system modeling by means of the MathWorks tools [2], and in 2008 chose to move to code generation. This article reports the experience performed by GETS in developing its own modeling standard through customizing the MAAB rules for the railway signaling domain and shows the result of this experience with a successful product development story.

Ferrari, Alessio↗
NASA NTRS2005

NESTA: NASA Engineering Shuttle Telemetry Agent

The Spaceport Processing Systems Branch at NASA Kennedy Space Center has developed and deployed an agent based tool to monitor the Space Shuttle's ground processing telemetry stream. The application, the NASA Engineering Shuttle Telemetry Agent, increases situational awareness for system and hardware engineers during ground processing of the Shuttle's subsystems. The agent provides autonomous monitoring of the telemetry stream and automatically alerts system engineers when predefined criteria have been met. Efficiency and safety are improved through increased automation. Sandia National Labs' Java Expert System Shell is employed as the rule engine. The shell's predicate logic lends itself well to capturing the heuristics and specifying the engineering rules of this spaceport domain. The declarative paradigm of the rule-based agent yields a highly modular and scalable design spanning multiple subsystems of the Shuttle. Several hundred monitoring rules have been written thus far with corresponding notifications sent to Shuttle engineers. This paper discusses the rule-based telemetry agent used for Space Shuttle ground processing and explains the problem domain, development of the agent software, benefits of AT technology, and deployment and sustaining engineering of the product.

Semmel, Glenn S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Update on the Effectiveness of Postmission Disposal in LEO

The commonly‐adopted orbital debris mitigation measures were developed to reduce the growth of the future debris population. A major component in debris mitigation is post-mission disposal (PMD). The key PMD element for LEO satellites is the 25‐year rule. It is intended to limit the long‐term presence of rocket bodies (R/Bs) and spacecraft (S/C), as well as mission-related debris, in the environment. The effectiveness of PMD has been demonstrated and documented since the development of mitigation measures began in the 1990s. This paper summarizes an updated study, based on the current environment, using the NASA LEGEND model. The study focused on the > or = 10 cm population in LEO. The historical simulation covered 1957 through 2011 and followed the recorded launches and known breakup events. The future projection was carried out for 200 years. An eight‐year launch traffic, 2004 - 2011, was repeated during the projection period. An eight‐year mission lifetime was assumed for future S/C. No stationkeeping and no collision avoidance maneuver were implemented. Only objects 10 cm and larger were included in collision consideration. No explosion was allowed for R/Bs and S/C launched after 2011. The 25‐year PMD rule success rates were set at 0%, 10%, 50%, 75%, and 95%, respectively, for the 5 study scenarios. Results of the simulations were analyzed to quantify the differences among the different compliance rates. As expected, the 0% PMD projection followed a rapid and non‐linear increase in the next 200 years. The LEO population, on average, more than tripled at the end of the simulations. With a 50% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the population growth was reduced approximately by half. However, even with a 95% compliance of the 25‐year rule, the LEO debris population would still increase by an average of more than 50% in 200 years. These simulation results provide an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the 25‐year rule. It is the first and the most cost‐effective defense against future population growth. In addition, the results also confirm the instability of the LEO population and lay the foundation for the need to consider environment remediation in the future.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Conflict Resolution: Centralized or Decentralized?

This work begins to address one of the critical questions in the urban air mobility and small unmanned aircraft communities: Should the en-route conflict resolution function in an urban air mobility traffic system be centralized or decentralized? Three conflict resolution architectures are modeled and analyzed: centralized, decentralized with uniform rules, and decentralized with mixed rules. This study compares these architectures and investigates their robustness to communication and state information errors in terms of safety and efficiency metrics. Experiments are conducted using a high-fidelity Monte Carlo traffic simulator and a generic set of traffic scenarios with increasing traffic density. When no errors were modeled, the centralized architecture marginally outperformed the decentralized architecture. However, performance of the centralized architecture was found to be adversely affected by the modeled input errors to a greater degree than was the decentralized architecture. Performance of the centralized architecture also was degraded significantly by the modeled transmission errors of the centralized resolution maneuvers. In the decentralized architecture, uniform rules outperformed mixed rules because, in the mixed rules case, system safety performance was undermined and dominated by the poor performers.

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) traffic system↗
DOE OSTI2012

In-service Inspection Ultrasonic Testing of Reactor Pressure Vessel Welds for Assessing Flaw Density and Size Distribution per 10 CFR 50.61a, Alternate Fracture Toughness Requirements

Pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events are system transients in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) in which there is a rapid operating temperature cool-down that results in cold vessel temperatures with or without repressurization of the vessel. The rapid cooling of the inside surface of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) causes thermal stresses that can combine with stresses caused by high pressure. The aggregate effect of these stresses is an increase in the potential for fracture if a pre-existing flaw is present in a material susceptible to brittle failure. The ferritic, low alloy steel of the reactor vessel beltline adjacent to the core, where neutron radiation gradually embrittles the material over the lifetime of the plant, can be susceptible to brittle fracture. The PTS rule, described in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 10, Section 50.61 (§50.61), “Fracture Toughness Requirements for Protection against Pressurized Thermal Shock Events,” adopted on July 23, 1985, establishes screening criteria to ensure that the potential for a reactor vessel to fail due to a PTS event is deemed to be acceptably low. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) completed a research program that concluded that the risk of through-wall cracking due to a PTS event is much lower than previously estimated. The NRC subsequently developed a rule, §50.61a, published on January 4, 2010, entitled “Alternate Fracture Toughness Requirements for Protection Against Pressurized Thermal Shock Events” (75 FR 13). Use of the new rule by licensees is optional. The §50.61a rule differs from §50.61 in that it requires licensees who choose to follow this alternate method to analyze the results from periodic volumetric examinations required by the ASME Code, Section XI, Rules for Inservice Inspection (ISI) of Nuclear Power Plants. These analyses are intended to determine if the actual flaw density and size distribution in the licensee’s reactor vessel beltline welds are bounded by the flaw density and size distribution values used in the PTS technical basis. Under a contract with the NRC, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been working on a program to assess the ability of current inservice inspection (ISI)-ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques, as qualified through ASME Code, Appendix VIII, Supplements 4 and 6, to detect small fabrication or inservice-induced flaws located in RPV welds and adjacent base materials. As part of this effort, the investigators have pursued an evaluation, based on the available information, of the capability of UT to provide flaw density/distribution inputs for making RPV weld assessments in accordance with §50.61a. This paper presents the results of an evaluation of data from the 1993 Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant, Unit 3, Spirit of Appendix VIII reactor vessel examination, a comparison of the flaw density/distribution from this data with the distribution in §50.61a, possible reasons for differences, and plans and recommendations for further work in this area.

alloy 82/182↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Approach to Critical in the Upcoming CERBERUS Experiment

The planned Critical Experiment Reflected By coppEr to betteR Understand Scattering (CERBERUS) seeks to maximize sensitivity to elastic neutron scattering in the intermediate energy region (0.625 eV to 100 keV). It will be performed near the end of FY 2023 at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). Very few International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks are sensitive to copper in this region. Creating a benchmark sensitive in this area will make the Zeus benchmark series, an intermediate benchmark evaluation that uses a copper reflector, more useful for code and nuclear data validation. Approaching criticality in a safe manner is of utmost importance to avoid a criticality accident, which would present a safety concern and could cause damage to equipment. The two rules that are followed closely to ensure that a criticality accident does not occur are the 3/4 rule and the 1/2 rule. The 3/4 rule states that no more than 3/4 of a critical mass can be assembled by hand, and the 1/2 rule states that no more than 1/2 of the material expected to reach criticality, or 1/2 the distance needed to reach criticality, can be added before another measurement of the count rate has been taken. This work will discuss the approach to criticality as modeled in MCNP6® 1 particle transport code with the ENDF/B- VIII.0 cross-section library and the .00c data library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Physical Protection of Spent Fuel Shipments: Resolution of Stakeholder Concerns Through Rulemaking - 12284

In 1999, the State of Nevada brought its concerns about physical protection of current spent nuclear fuel (SNF) shipments, and future SNF shipments to a federal repository, before the NRC in a 1999 petition for rulemaking (PRM-73-10). In October 2010, the NRC published a rulemaking decision which would significantly strengthen physical protection of SNF in transit. The newest articulation of the rule (10 CFR 73.37) incorporates regulatory clarifications and security enhancements requested in Nevada's 1999 petition for rulemaking, codifies the findings of the Nuclear NRC and DOE consequence analyses into policy guidance documents and brings forward into regulations the agency and licensee experience gained since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Although at present DOE SNF shipments would continue to be exempt from these NRC regulations, Nevada considers the rule to constitute a largely satisfactory resolution to stakeholder concerns raised in the original petition and in subsequent comments submitted to the NRC. This paper reviews the process of regulatory changes, assesses the specific improvements contained in the new rules and briefly describes the significance of the new rule in the context of a future national nuclear waste management program. Nevada's petition for rulemaking led to a generally satisfactory resolution of the State's concerns. The decade plus timeframe from petition to rulemaking conclusion saw a sea change in many aspects of the relevant issues - perhaps most importantly the attacks on 9/11 led to the recognition by regulatory bodies that a new threat environment exists wherein shipments of SNF and HLW pose a viable target for human initiated events. The State of Nevada has always considered security a critical concern for the transport of these highly radioactive materials. This was one of the primary reasons for the original rulemaking petition and subsequent advocacy by Nevada on related issues. NRC decisions on the majority of the concerns expressed in the petition, additional developments by other regulatory bodies and the change in how the United States sees threats to the homeland - all of these produced a satisfactory resolution through the rulemaking process. While not all of the concerns expressed by Nevada were addressed in the proposed rule and significant challenges face any programmatic shipment campaign in the future, the lesson learned on this occasion is that stakeholder concerns can be resolved through rulemaking. If DOE would engage with stakeholders on its role in transport of SNF and HLW under the NWPA, these concerns would be better addressed. Specifically the attempts by DOE to resist transportation and security regulations now considered necessary by the NRC for the adequate protection of the shipments of highly radioactive materials, these DOE efforts seem ill advised. One clear lesson learned from this successful rulemaking petition process is that the system of stakeholder input can work to better the regulatory environment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Severe Accident Analysis Engine Using Approximate Reasoning

In hypothetical severe accident scenarios, nuclear power plant safety is challenged by core degradation and release of fission products. To aid the plant operator and technical support center staff, research has been performed to develop understanding of severe accident phenomenology, assessing their risk and devise measures to mitigate accident consequences (Sehgal, 2011). Nuclear power plant accidents involve highly complex physical and chemical interactions, a large number of safety related systems, and emergency operating procedures (EOP) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Large number of factors with uncertainty and stress can overwhelm the operators. The overall objective of the present research is to develop a methodology and tools that an operator can use to predict severe accident progression and make effective decisions to arrest and manage the accident under large uncertainties. Towards this goal, this study examines a novel approach that brings to bear a combined use of techniques in artificial intelligence (Russel and Norvig, 2010), including Bayesian Network (BN), Answer Set Programming (ASP) and Fuzzy Inference (FI) to achieve faster-than-real-time, yet sufficiently accurate analysis of severe accident progression. Bayesian network (BN) is a type of probabilistic graphical models that can be used to represent knowledge and conditional dependencies about an uncertain realm. It is useful for capturing the causal relationships in a complex system. It also allows prediction via Bayesian inference (Kelly and Smith, 2012). It is composed of nodes and edges, which express random variables and probabilistic relationships between the nodes, respectively. This relationship, given by conditional probability is calculated using stochastic methods. The BN is used in several systems for analysis and management of accident risk; e.g. (Knochenhauer and Frid, 2010). In those systems, the nodes or so-called 'effective factors' are presumably known within the network by system descriptions in SAMGs. There are two steps to configure the BN, namely (i) identifying compositions within the network and (ii) defining conditional dependency between nodes. The first step is performed following the spirit of ASP (Baral, 2003) using Prolog (Wielemaker, 2005). Knowledge representation is used to build databases required for processing by ASP. Knowledge representation is defined as the expression of knowledge in a way that is understandable to both human and computers. Originally knowledge indicates data, information and facts. To focus, knowledge should be formed to achieve a goal. In a severe accident, key physics and safety related components status are defined according to a failure mode. The conditional dependencies between nodes are generated by approximate reasoning using Fuzzy inference (Zadeh, 1995). Fuzzy logic is a multiple-valued logic to treat ambiguous features such as linguistic description. It indicates possibility, which is distinguished from probability. Fuzzy set consists of linguistic variables according to the fixed rule. In other words, even uncertain states could be expressed as not binary logic, but as many-value logic by rule-based technology. Fuzzy control system is comprised of Fuzzy inference engine that is performed based on the 'If-Then Rule'. The 'If-Then Rule' is of the following form. If Y1 is B11 and Y2 is B12 then Z is C1. If Y1 is B21 and Y2 is B22 then Z is C2. Y1 and Y2 are inputs, which indicate conditional variables. Z indicates decision-making and both B and C are linguistic variables. With this rule-based technique, the approximate reasoning can be realized by Fuzzy inference. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗