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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Economic Analysis Case Studies of Battery Energy Storage with SAM

Interest in energy storage has continued to increase as states like California have introduced mandates and subsidies to spur adoption. This energy storage includes customer sited behind-the-meter storage coupled with photovoltaics (PV). This paper presents case study results from California and Tennessee, which were performed to assess the economic benefit of customer-installed systems. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. The analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. The analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis applications to fuel performance modeling

Best-estimate fuel performance codes such as BISON currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, utilize empirical and mechanistic lower-length-scale informed correlations to predict fuel behavior under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. Traditionally, best-estimate results are presented using the correlations with no quantification of the uncertainty in the output metrics of interest. However, there are associated uncertainties in the input parameters and correlations used to determine the behavior of the fuel and cladding under irradiation. Therefore, it is important to perform uncertainty quantification and include confidence bounds on the output metrics that take into account the uncertainties in the inputs. In addition, sensitivity analyses can be performed to determine which input parameters have the greatest influence on the outputs. In this paper we couple the BISON fuel performance code to the DAKOTA uncertainty analysis software to analyze a representative fuel performance problem. The case studied in this paper is based upon rod 1 from the IFA-432 integral experiment performed at the Halden Reactor in Norway. The rodlet is representative of a BWR fuel rod. The input parameters uncertainties are broken into three separate categories including boundary condition uncertainties (e.g., power, coolant flow rate), manufacturing uncertainties (e.g., pellet diameter, cladding thickness), and model uncertainties (e.g., fuel thermal conductivity, fuel swelling). Utilizing DAKOTA, a variety of statistical analysis techniques are applied to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the output metrics of interest. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of sampling methods, polynomial chaos expansions, surrogate models, and variance-based decomposition. The output metrics investigated in this study are the fuel centerline temperature, cladding surface temperature, fission gas released, and fuel rod diameter. The results highlighted the importance of the thermal conductivity of the fuel, the thermal conductivity of the cladding, the gap thickness, the fuel thermal expansion, and the system power factor as influential parameters.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

UCNB_Analyzer

The purpose of this software is to interpret and analyze data taken using the NI PXIe-5171R digitizer based data acquisition system for the UCNB and Nab experiments. The detection and data acquisition systems are identical for the 2 experiments, with some differences in analysis requirements. The software converts raw binary files produced by the NI DAQ into ROOT TTree format, performs waveform analysis using trapezoidal filter algorithms, pulse fitting, and noise analysis routines, and applies variable criteria to identify valid events in the data stream. The software will be used to perform analysis of the events for multi-channel coincidences, timing and energy studies, and event rates under different experimental conditions.

Broussard, LeahJ↗

UCNB_Analyzer

The purpose of this software is to interpret and analyze data taken using the NI PXIe-5171R digitizer based data acquisition system for the UCNB and Nab experiments. The detection and data acquisition systems are identical for the 2 experiments, with some differences in analysis requirements. The software converts raw binary files produced by the NI DAQ into ROOT TTree format, performs waveform analysis using trapezoidal filter algorithms, pulse fitting, and noise analysis routines, and applies variable criteria to identify valid events in the data stream. The software will be used to perform analysis of the events for multi-channel coincidences, timing and energy studies, and event rates under different experimental conditions.

Broussard, Leah J↗

Modeling, Performance Assessment, and Nodal Data Analysis of TRISO-Fueled Systems with Shift

This technical report documents several enhancements to the Shift Monte Carlo (MC) code under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in fiscal year (FY) 2022. Performance enhancements were added to Shift specifically for tristructural isotropic (TRISO)–fueled reactor systems and guided based on performance analysis in FY 2021. For the pebble performance model developed in previous studies, the runtime improved by ~ 91× compared to the original model and ~ 2× compared to the user-optimized model. Compared to Serpent, Shift is ~ 3× slower if Serpent delta-tracking is enabled but ~ 2× faster when delta-tracking is disabled. The multigroup cross section generation was improved through simplifying tally input definitions, porting several post-processing tally operations from Python scripts into the Shift code base, and accounting for production reactions in the scattering multiplicity. Progress was also made on two emerging capabilities: (1) the development of Titan (a Shift reactor physics user interface) and (2) initial investigation into path-length tallies for computing multigroup scattering matrices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Performance Refactoring of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Petascale Computing. The PRIMA Project

The growing number of cores provided by today’s high-­end computing systems present substantial challenges to application developers in their pursuit of parallel efficiency. To find the most effective optimization strategy, application developers need insight into the runtime behavior of their code. The University of Oregon (UO) and the Juelich Supercomputing Centre of Forschungszentrum Juelich (FZJ) develop the performance analysis tools TAU and Scalasca, respectively, which allow high-­performance computing (HPC) users to collect and analyze relevant performance data – even at very large scales. TAU and Scalasca are considered among the most advanced parallel performance systems available, and are used extensively across HPC centers in the U.S., Germany, and around the world. The TAU and Scalasca groups share a heritage of parallel performance tool research and partnership throughout the past fifteen years. Indeed, the close interactions of the two groups resulted in a cross-­fertilization of tool ideas and technologies that pushed TAU and Scalasca to what they are today. It also produced two performance systems with an increasing degree of functional overlap. While each tool has its specific analysis focus, the tools were implementing measurement infrastructures that were substantially similar. Because each tool provides complementary performance analysis, sharing of measurement results is valuable to provide the user with more facets to understand performance behavior. However, each measurement system was producing performance data in different formats, requiring data interoperability tools to be created. A common measurement and instrumentation system was needed to more closely integrate TAU and Scalasca and to avoid the duplication of development and maintenance effort. The PRIMA (Performance Refactoring of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis) project was proposed over three years ago as a joint international effort between UO and FZJ to accomplish these objectives: (1) refactor TAU and Scalasca performance system components for core code sharing and (2) integrate TAU and Scalasca functionality through data interfaces, formats, and utilities. As presented in this report, the project has completed these goals. In addition to shared technical advances, the groups have worked to engage with users through application performance engineering and tools training. In this regard, the project benefits from the close interactions the teams have with national laboratories in the United States and Germany. We have also sought to enhance our interactions through joint tutorials and outreach. UO has become a member of the Virtual Institute of High-­Productivity Supercomputing (VI-­HPS) established by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres as a center of excellence, focusing on HPC tools for diagnosing programming errors and optimizing performance. UO and FZJ have conducted several VI-­HPS training activities together within the past three years.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Demonstration of Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for PWR Fuel Performance with BISON

BISON is an advanced fuels performance code being developed at Idaho National Laboratory and is the code of choice for fuels performance by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Program. An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with BISON was developed and a new toolkit was created. A PWR fuel rod model was developed and simulated by BISON, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with eighteen uncertain input parameters. The maximum fuel temperature and gap conductance were selected as the figures of merit (FOM). Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Simulator Complexity on Human Performance

Human Reliability Analysis predicts accidents caused by human errors and is an important factor in Probabilistic Safety Assessment that comprehensively evaluates the safety of nuclear power plants. This study compares and analyzes the human performance of nuclear power plant operators according to the simulator complexity as part of the HRA data collection support method development project conducted by Idaho National Laboratory. This experiment was conducted by setting two types of simulators and scenarios as independent variables. The data collected by conducting the experiments in two different simulators were analyzed using an analysis of variance test and a correlation analysis, and four human performance charts were derived.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves: An Analysis Tool for Detection Performance

Detection theory is a fundamental tool in decision analysis. However, many decision functions both formal (e.g. likelihood ratio) and informal (e.g. maximum of function) evolve in a wide variety of applications. The fundamental detection problem of interest is shown in Fig. 1. That is, given a set of data (e.g. noisy measurements) obtained from an instrument and a decision function, “decide” whether or not the signal is present or not.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The effect of load imbalances on the performance of Monte Carlo algorithms in LWR analysis

A model is developed to predict the impact of particle load imbalances on the performance of domain-decomposed Monte Carlo neutron transport algorithms. Expressions for upper bound performance “penalties” are derived in terms of simple machine characteristics, material characterizations and initial particle distributions. The hope is that these relations can be used to evaluate tradeoffs among different memory decomposition strategies in next generation Monte Carlo codes, and perhaps as a metric for triggering particle redistribution in production codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of leading edge protection application on wind turbine performance through energy and power decomposition approaches

Abstract Wind power production is driven by, and varies with, the stochastic yet uncontrollable wind and environmental inputs. To compare a wind turbine's performance, a direct comparison on power outputs is always confounded by the stochastic effect of weather inputs. It is therefore crucial to control for the weather and environmental influence. Toward that objective, our study proposes an energy decomposition approach. We start with comparing the change in the total energy production and refer to the change in total energy as delta energy. On this delta energy, we apply our decomposition method, which is to separate the portion of energy change due to weather effects from that due to the turbine itself. We derive a set of mathematical relationships allowing us to perform this decomposition and examine the credibility and robustness of the proposed decomposition approach through extensive cross‐validation and case studies. We then apply the decomposition approach to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data associated with several wind turbines to which leading‐edge protection was carried out. Our study shows that the leading‐edge protection applied on blades may cause a small decline to the power production efficiency in the short term, although we expect the leading‐edge protection to benefit the blade's reliability in the long term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comprehensive Benchmark Suite for Simulation of Particle Laden Flows Using the Discrete Element Method with Performance Profiles from the Multiphase Flow with Interface eXchanges (MFiX) Code

Five benchmark problems are developed and simulated with the computational fluid dynamics and discrete element model code MFiX. The benchmark problems span dilute and dense regimes, consider statistically homogeneous and inhomogeneous (both clusters and bubbles) particle concentrations and a range of particle and fluid dynamic computational loads. Several variations of the benchmark problems are also discussed to extend the computational phase space to cover granular (particles only), bidisperse and heat transfer cases. A weak scaling analysis is performed for each benchmark problem and, in most cases, the scalability of the code appears reasonable up to approx. 103 cores. Profiling of the benchmark problems indicate that the most substantial computational time is being spent on particle-particle force calculations, drag force calculations and interpolating between discrete particle and continuum fields. Hardware performance analysis was also carried out showing significant Level 2 cache miss ratios and a rather low degree of vectorization. These results are intended to serve as a baseline for future developments to the code as well as a preliminary indicator of where to best focus performance optimizations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven analysis and prediction of wastewater treatment plant performance: Insights and forecasting for sustainable operations

Here this study presents a comprehensive performance and forecasting analysis of the As-Samra wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Jordan, with two main objectives. Firstly, a thorough evaluation of the plant's performance is conducted. The analysis involves independently assessing historical operational conditions, plant production, and their statistical correlations using various statistical techniques. The second objective focuses on developing a data-driven forecasting approach to predict the plant's production one month in advance, using multiple machine learning models. The results highlight the effectiveness of principal component analysis (PCA) in simplifying operational data, revealing distinct operational clusters, and identifying seasonal production patterns while showing correlations between operational conditions and overall power production. The support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model emerged as the top performer, showcasing the potential of a hybrid forecasting approach. The findings offer valuable perspectives for enhancing operational efficiency, refining production planning, and ultimately improving the environmental impact of the plant.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Case Study for the ARRA-funded Ground Source Heat Pump Demonstration at Denver Museum of Nature & Science

High initial costs and lack of public awareness of ground-source heat pump (GSHP) technology are the two major barriers preventing rapid deployment of this energy-saving technology in the United States. Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), 26 GSHP projects were competitively selected and carried out to demonstrate the benefits of GSHP systems and innovative technologies for cost reduction and/or performance improvement. This report highlights the findings of a case study of one such GSHP demonstration projects that uses a recycled water heat pump (RWHP) system installed at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science in Denver, Colorado. The RWHP system uses recycled water from the city’s water system as the heat sink and source for a modular water-to-water heat pump (WWHP). This case study was conducted based on the available measured performance data from December 2014 through August 2015, utility bills of the building in 2014 and 2015, construction drawings, maintenance records, personal communications, and construction costs. The annual energy consumption of the RWHP system was calculated based on the available measured data and other related information. It was compared with the performance of a baseline scenario— a conventional VAV system using a water-cooled chiller and a natural gas fired boiler, both of which have the minimum energy efficiencies allowed by ASHRAE 90.1-2010. The comparison was made to determine energy savings, operating cost savings, and CO2 emission reductions achieved by the RWHP system. A cost analysis was performed to evaluate the simple payback of the RWHP system. Summarized below are the results of the performance analysis, the learned lessons, and recommended improvement in the operation of the RWHP system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗