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DOE OSTI2021

Biosurfactant production by halophilic yeasts isolated from extreme environments in Botswana

ABSTRACT Nine morphologically distinct halophilic yeasts were isolated from Makgadikgadi and Sua pans, as pristine and extreme environments in Botswana. Screening for biosurfactant production showed that Rhodotorula mucilaginosa SP6 and Debaryomyces hansenii MK9 exhibited the highest biosurfactant activity using Xanthocercis zambesiaca seed powder as a novel and alternative inexpensive carbon substrate. Chemical characterization of the purified biosurfactants by Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy suggested that the biosurfactant from R. mucilaginosa SP6 was a rhamnolipid-type whereas the biosurfactant from D. hansenii MK9 was a sophorolipid-type. The two biosurfactants exhibited antimicrobial activities against eight pathogenic bacteria and fungal strains (Proteus vulgaris, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Micrococcus luteus, Cryptococcus neoformans, Candida albicans and Aspergilus niger). The sophorolopid-type biosurfactant was found to be the most potent among the antimicrobial drug resistant strains tested. The findings open up prospects for the development of environmentally friendly antimicrobial drugs that use an inexpensive source of carbon to reduce the costs associated with the production of biosurfactants.

Loeto, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel polypeptide vaccine and adjuvant formulation of EV71

ABSTRACT Hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease mainly caused by Enterovirus 71 (EV 71). However, the effective treatment is limited currently. The aim of this study was to investigate the activity of the vaccine including the EV71 polypeptides mixed with a novel adjuvant containing CpG oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG ODNs). After collecting mouse sera, we determined the antibody concentration in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Then, CD19+CD27+ B cells in the spleen were analysed by flow cytometry. The assay revealed that a substantial increase in antibody titers was achieved. This indicates a high level of immunogenicity for peptide vaccine and the good stability of adjuvant, also suggests that the combination of vaccine and adjuvant can stimulate the production of high-level antibodies and CD19+CD27+ B lymphocytes in mice. Furthermore, the antibody could effectively identify EV71 inactivated virus. The results demonstrated that the autonomous construction of EV71 polypeptide vaccine had a good immunogenicity. Moreover, the peptide vaccine injection with a novel adjuvant, which is easy to prepare, could cause a high antibody level of EV71 and shown a good application prospect.

Liu, Zhiang↗

DOE OSTI2025

A semidominant point mutation of Mediator tail subunit MED5b in Arabidopsis leads to altered enrichment of H3K27me3 and reduced expression of targets of MYC2

Abstract The Mediator complex coordinates regulatory input for transcription driven by RNA polymerase II in eukaryotes. reduced epidermal fluorescence4-3 (ref4-3) is a semidominant mutation that results in a single amino acid substitution in the Mediator tail subunit Med5b. Previous characterization of ref4-3 revealed altered expression of a variety of loci in Arabidopsis, including those contributing to phenylpropanoid biosynthesis. Examination of existing RNA-seq data indicated that loci enriched for the transcriptionally repressive chromatin modification H3K27me3 are overrepresented among genes that are misregulated in ref4-3. We used ChIP-seq and RNA-seq to examine the possibility that perturbation of H3K27me3 homeostasis in ref4-3 plants contributed to altered transcript levels. We observed that ref4-3 results in a modest global reduction of H3K27me3 at enriched loci and that this reduction is not dependent on gene expression; however, altered H3K27me3 was not strongly predictive of altered expression in ref4-3 plants. Instead, our analyses revealed a substantial enrichment of targets of the MYC2 transcriptional regulator among genes that exhibit decreased expression in ref4-3. Consistent with previous characterization of ref4-3, we observed that ref4-3-dependent decreased expression of MYC2 targets can be suppressed by loss of another Mediator tail subunit, MED25. This observation is consistent with previous biochemical characterization of MYC2. Our data highlight the diverse and distinct impacts that a single amino acid change in the tail subunit of Mediator can have on transcriptional circuits and raise the prospect that Mediator directly contributes to H3K27me3 homeostasis in plants.

Long, Jiaxin (ORCID:0000000335150706)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3-D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Acoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modelling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modelling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3-D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia

Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia. Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained—35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10–14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13–1.37) and 1.20 (1.02–1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15–19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41–2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71–4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries. Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2023

Language Barriers in Organismal Biology: What Can Journals Do Better?

Synopsis In the field of organismal biology, as in much of academia, there is a strong incentive to publish in internationally recognized, highly regarded, English-language journals to promote career advancement. This expectation has created a linguistic hegemony in scientific publishing, whereby scholars for whom English is an additional language face additional barriers to achieving the same scientific recognition as scholars who speak English as a first language. Here, we surveyed the author guidelines of 230 journals in organismal biology with impact factors of 1.5 or greater for linguistically inclusive and equitable practices and policies. We looked for efforts that reflect first steps toward reducing barriers to publication for authors globally, including the presence of statements that encouraged submissions from authors of diverse nationalities and backgrounds, policies regarding manuscript rejection based on perceived inadequacies of the English language, the existence of bias-conscious reviewer practices, whether translation and editing resources or services are available, allowance for non-English abstracts, summaries, or translations, and whether journals offer license options that would permit authors (or other scholars) to translate their work and publish it elsewhere. We also directly contacted a subset of journals to verify whether the information on their author guidelines page accurately reflects their policies and the accommodations they would make. We reveal that journals and publishers have made little progress toward beginning to recognize or reduce language barriers. Counter to our predictions, journals associated with scientific societies did not appear to have more inclusive policies compared to non-society journals. Many policies lacked transparency and clarity, which can generate uncertainty, result in avoidable manuscript rejections, and necessitate additional time and effort from both prospective authors and journal editors. We highlight examples of equitable policies and summarize actions that journals can take to begin to alleviate barriers to scientific publishing.

Nolde-Lopez, B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiplicity functions of quasars: predictions from the MassiveBlackII simulation

ABSTRACT We examine multiple active galactic nucleus (AGN) systems (triples and quadruples, in particular) in the MassiveBlackII simulation over a redshift range of 0.06 ≲ z ≲ 4. We identify AGN systems (with bolometric luminosity $L_{\mathrm{bol}}\gt 10^{42}~\mathrm{erg\, s}^{-1}$) at different scales (defined by the maximum distance between member AGNs) to determine the AGN multiplicity functions. This is defined as the volume/surface density of AGN systems per unit richness R, the number of AGNs in a system. We find that gravitationally bound multiple AGN systems tend to populate scales of ${\lesssim}0.7~\mathrm{cMpc}\, h^{-1}$; this corresponds to angular separations of ≲100 arcsec and a line-of-sight velocity difference ${\lesssim}200~\mathrm{km\, s}^{-1}$. The simulation contains ∼10 and ∼100 triples/quadruples per deg2 up to depths of DESI (g ≲ 24) and LSST (g ≲ 26) imaging, respectively; at least $20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of these should be detectable in spectroscopic surveys. The simulated quasar ($L_{\mathrm{bol}}\gt 10^{44}~\mathrm{erg\, s}^{-1}$) triples and quadruples predominantly exist at 1.5 ≲ z ≲ 3. Their members have black hole masses $10^{6.5}\lesssim M_{\mathrm{ bh}}\lesssim 10^{9}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{-1}$ and live in separate (one central and multiple satellite) galaxies with stellar masses $10^{10}\lesssim M_{*}\lesssim 10^{12}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{-1}$. They live in the most massive haloes (e.g. ${\sim}10^{13}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{-1}$ at z = 2.5; ${\sim}10^{14}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{-1}$ at z = 1) in the simulation. Their detections provide an exciting prospect for understanding massive black hole growth and their merger rates in galaxies in the era of multimessenger astronomy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

SPIDERS: overview of the X-ray galaxy cluster follow-up and the final spectroscopic data release

ABSTRACT SPIDERS (The SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources) is a large spectroscopic programme for X-ray selected galaxy clusters as part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-IV (SDSS-IV). We describe the final data set in the context of SDSS Data Release 16 (DR16): the survey overall characteristics, final targeting strategies, achieved completeness, and spectral quality, with special emphasis on its use as a galaxy cluster sample for cosmology applications. SPIDERS now consists of about 27 000 new optical spectra of galaxies selected within 4000 photometric red sequences, each associated with an X-ray source. The excellent spectrograph efficiency and a robust analysis pipeline yield a spectroscopic redshift measurement success rate exceeding 98 per cent, with a median velocity accuracy of 20 km s−1 (at z = 0.2). Using the catalogue of 2740 X-ray galaxy clusters confirmed with DR16 spectroscopy, we reveal the 3D map of the galaxy cluster distribution in the observable Universe up to z ∼ 0.6. We highlight the homogeneity of the member galaxy spectra among distinct regions of the galaxy cluster phase space. Aided by accurate spectroscopic redshifts and by a model of the sample selection effects, we compute the galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity function and we present its lack of evolution up to z = 0.6. Finally we discuss the prospects of forthcoming large multiplexed spectroscopic programmes dedicated to follow up the next generation of all-sky X-ray source catalogues.

Clerc, N.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of selection function, sample contamination and mass calibration in galaxy cluster samples

ABSTRACT We construct and validate the selection function of the MARD-Y3 galaxy cluster sample. This sample was selected through optical follow-up of the 2nd ROSAT faint source catalogue with Dark Energy Survey year 3 data. The selection function is modelled by combining an empirically constructed X-ray selection function with an incompleteness model for the optical follow-up. We validate the joint selection function by testing the consistency of the constraints on the X-ray flux–mass and richness–mass scaling relation parameters derived from different sources of mass information: (1) cross-calibration using South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SPT-SZ) clusters, (2) calibration using number counts in X-ray, in optical and in both X-ray and optical while marginalizing over cosmological parameters, and (3) other published analyses. We find that the constraints on the scaling relation from the number counts and SPT-SZ cross-calibration agree, indicating that our modelling of the selection function is adequate. Furthermore, we apply a largely cosmology independent method to validate selection functions via the computation of the probability of finding each cluster in the SPT-SZ sample in the MARD-Y3 sample and vice versa. This test reveals no clear evidence for MARD-Y3 contamination, SPT-SZ incompleteness or outlier fraction. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the techniques presented here to limit systematic selection effects in future cluster cosmological studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring H 0 using X-ray and SZ effect observations of dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT We use a sample of 14 massive, dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters to constrain the Hubble constant, H0, by combining X-ray and Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect signals measured with Chandra, Planck, and Bolocam. This is the first such analysis to marginalize over an empirical, data-driven prior on the overall accuracy of X-ray temperature measurements, while our restriction to the most relaxed, massive clusters also minimizes astrophysical systematics. For a cosmological-constant model with Ωm = 0.3 and ΩΛ = 0.7, we find $H_0 = 67.3^{+21.3}_{-13.3}\, \mathrm{km}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, limited by the temperature calibration uncertainty (compared to the statistically limited constraint of $H_0 = 72.3^{+7.6}_{-7.6}\, \mathrm{km}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$). The intrinsic scatter in the X-ray/SZ pressure ratio is found to be 13 ± 4 per cent (10 ± 3 per cent when two clusters with significant galactic dust emission are removed from the sample), consistent with being primarily due to triaxiality and projection. We discuss the prospects for reducing the dominant systematic limitation to this analysis, with improved X-ray calibration and/or precise measurements of the relativistic SZ effect providing a plausible route to per cent level constraints on H0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using machine learning to identify extragalactic globular cluster candidates from ground-based photometric surveys of M87

Globular clusters (GCs) have been at the heart of many longstanding questions in many sub-fields of astronomy and, as such, systematic identification of GCs in external galaxies has immense impacts. In this study, we take advantage of M87’s well-studied GC system to implement supervised machine learning (ML) classification algorithms – specifically random forest and neural networks – to identify GCs from foreground stars and background galaxies, using ground-based photometry from the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). We compare these two ML classification methods to studies of ‘human-selected’ GCs and find that the best-performing random forest model can reselect 61.2 per cent ± 8.0 per cent of GCs selected from HST data (ACSVCS) and the best-performing neural network model reselects 95.0 per cent ± 3.4 per cent. When compared to human-classified GCs and contaminants selected from CFHT data – independent of our training data – the best-performing random forest model can correctly classify 91.0 per cent ± 1.2 per cent and the best-performing neural network model can correctly classify 57.3 per cent ± 1.1 per cent. ML methods in astronomy have been receiving much interest as Vera C. Rubin Observatory prepares for first light. The observables in this study are selected to be directly comparable to early Rubin Observatory data and the prospects for running ML algorithms on the upcoming data set yields promising results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modelling nearest neighbour distributions of biased tracers using hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the application of hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) – which combines a Lagrangian bias expansion with subsequent particle dynamics from N-body simulations – to the modelling of k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions (kNN-CDFs) of biased tracers of the cosmological matter field. The kNN-CDFs are sensitive to all higher order connected N-point functions in the data, but are computationally cheap to compute. We develop the formalism to predict the kNN-CDFs of discrete tracers of a continuous field from the statistics of the continuous field itself. Using this formalism, we demonstrate how kNN-CDF statistics of a set of biased tracers, such as haloes or galaxies, of the cosmological matter field can be modelled given a set of low-redshift HEFT component fields and bias parameter values. These are the same ingredients needed to predict the two-point clustering. For a specific sample of haloes, we show that both the two-point clustering and the kNN-CDFs can be well-fit on quasi-linear scales (≳ 20h−1Mpc) by the second-order HEFT formalism with the same values of the bias parameters, implying that joint modelling of the two is possible. Finally, using a Fisher matrix analysis, we show that including kNN-CDF measurements over the range of allowed scales in the HEFT framework can improve the constraints on σ8 by roughly a factor of 3, compared to the case where only two-point measurements are considered. Combining the statistical power of kNN measurements with the modelling power of HEFT, therefore, represents an exciting prospect for extracting greater information from small-scale cosmological clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Non-universal stellar initial mass functions: large uncertainties in star formation rates at z ≈ 2–4 and other astrophysical probes

ABSTRACT We explore the assumption, widely used in many astrophysical calculations, that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) is universal across all galaxies. By considering both a canonical broken-power-law IMF and a non-universal IMF, we are able to compare the effect of different IMFs on multiple observables and derived quantities in astrophysics. Specifically, we consider a non-universal IMF that varies as a function of the local star formation rate, and explore the effects on the star formation rate density (SFRD), the extragalactic background light, the supernova (both core-collapse and thermonuclear) rates, and the diffuse supernova neutrino background. Our most interesting result is that our adopted varying IMF leads to much greater uncertainty on the SFRD at $z \approx 2-4$ than is usually assumed. Indeed, we find an SFRD (inferred using observed galaxy luminosity distributions) that is a factor of $\gtrsim 3$ lower than canonical results obtained using a universal IMF. Secondly, the non-universal IMF we explore implies a reduction in the supernova core-collapse rate of a factor of $\sim 2$, compared against a universal IMF. The other potential tracers are only slightly affected by changes to the properties of the IMF. We find that currently available data do not provide a clear preference for universal or non-universal IMF. However, improvements to measurements of the star formation rate and core-collapse supernova rate at redshifts $z \gtrsim 2$ may offer the best prospects for discernment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pulse profile modelling of thermonuclear burst oscillations − I. The effect of neglecting variability

ABSTRACT We study the effects of the time-variable properties of thermonuclear X-ray bursts on modelling their millisecond-period burst oscillations. We apply the pulse profile modelling technique that is being used in the analysis of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer to infer masses, radii, and geometric parameters of neutron stars. By simulating and analysing a large set of models, we show that overlooking burst time-scale variability in temperatures and sizes of the hot emitting regions can result in substantial bias in the inferred mass and radius. To adequately infer neutron star properties, it is essential to develop a model for the time-variable properties or invest a substantial amount of computational time in segmenting the data into non-varying pieces. We discuss prospects for constraints from proposed future X-ray telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array to TeV photon emission from the Large Magellanic Cloud

ABSTRACT A deep survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud at ∼0.1–100 TeV photon energies with the Cherenkov Telescope Array is planned. We assess the detection prospects based on a model for the emission of the galaxy, comprising the four known TeV emitters, mock populations of sources, and interstellar emission on galactic scales. We also assess the detectability of 30 Doradus and SN 1987A, and the constraints that can be derived on the nature of dark matter. The survey will allow for fine spectral studies of N 157B, N 132D, LMC P3, and 30 Doradus C, and half a dozen other sources should be revealed, mainly pulsar-powered objects. The remnant from SN 1987A could be detected if it produces cosmic-ray nuclei with a flat power-law spectrum at high energies, or with a steeper index 2.3–2.4 pending a flux increase by a factor of >3–4 over ∼2015–2035. Large-scale interstellar emission remains mostly out of reach of the survey if its >10 GeV spectrum has a soft photon index ∼2.7, but degree-scale 0.1–10 TeV pion-decay emission could be detected if the cosmic-ray spectrum hardens above >100 GeV. The 30 Doradus star-forming region is detectable if acceleration efficiency is on the order of 1−10 per cent of the mechanical luminosity and diffusion is suppressed by two orders of magnitude within <100 pc. Finally, the survey could probe the canonical velocity-averaged cross-section for self-annihilation of weakly interacting massive particles for cuspy Navarro–Frenk–White profiles.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using elliptical galaxy kinematics to compare the strength of gravity in cosmological regions of differing gravitational potential – a first look

ABSTRACT Various models of modified gravity invoke ‘screening’ mechanisms that are sensitive to the value of the local gravitational potential. This could have observable consequences for galaxies. These consequences might be seen by comparing two proxies for galaxy mass – their luminosity and their internal kinematics – as a function of local galaxy density. Motivated by this prospect, we have compared the observed properties of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) inside and outside of voids in the cosmic large scale structure. We used archival measurements of line widths, luminosities, redshifts, colours, and positions of galaxies in conjunction with recent void catalogues to construct comparison LRG samples inside and outside of voids. We fitted these two samples to the well-established fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies to constrain any differences between the inferred value of the Newtonian gravitational constant G for the two samples. We obtained a null result, with an upper limit on any fractional difference in G within and outside of cosmological voids to be α = δG/G ∼ 40 per cent. This upper bound is dominated by the small-number statistics of our N ∼ 100 within-void LRG sample. With the caveat that environmental effects could influence various parameters such as star formation, we estimate that a 1 per cent statistical limit on α could be attained with data from 105 elliptical galaxies within voids. This is within the reach of future photometric and spectroscopic surveys, both of which are required to pursue this method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting strongly lensed type Ia supernovae with LSST

ABSTRACT Strongly lensed supernovae are rare and valuable probes of cosmology and astrophysics. Upcoming wide-field time-domain surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are expected to discover an order-of-magnitude more lensed supernovae than have previously been observed. In this work, we investigate the cosmological prospects of lensed type Ia supernovae (SNIa) in LSST by quantifying the expected annual number of detections, the impact of stellar microlensing, follow-up feasibility, and how to best separate lensed and unlensed SNIa. We simulate SNIa lensed by galaxies, using the current LSST baseline v3.0 cadence, and find an expected number of 44 lensed SNIa detections per year. Microlensing effects by stars in the lensing galaxy are predicted to lower the lensed SNIa detections by ∼8 per cent. The lensed events can be separated from the unlensed ones by jointly considering their colours and peak magnitudes. We define a ‘gold sample’ of ∼10 lensed SNIa per year with time delay >10 d, >5 detections before light curve peak, and sufficiently bright (mi < 22.5 mag) for follow-up observations. In 3 yr of LSST operations, such a sample is expected to yield a 1.5 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗