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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

6-DoF Uranus Aerocapture Trajectory Analysis

The Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission has been identified as the highest priority flagship mission for this decade. Delays in launch opportunities may make existing fully-propulsive orbit insertion mission types unfeasible. Aerocapture can potentially alleviate these challenges while providing a solution flexible to different launch opportunities. While the space technology that aerocapture leverages have been flight-proven, aerocapture as-a-whole has not been formally demonstrated. This paper presents a novel 6-DoF aerocapture trajectory analysis applied to Uranus. The paper presents the 6-DoF simulation framework, inspired from Mars Science Laboratory. Trajectory comparisons, including Monte Carlo simulations, to existing 3-DoF solutions are presented to understand the information learned from increasing the modeling level-of-fidelity.

Rohan G Deshmukh↗

6-DoF Uranus Aerocapture Trajectory Analysis

The Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission has been identified as the highest priority flagship mission for this decade. Delays in launch opportunities may make existing fully-propulsive orbit insertion mission types unfeasible. Aerocapture can potentially alleviate these challenges while providing a solution flexible to different launch opportunities. While the space technology that aerocapture leverages have been flight-proven, aerocapture as-a-whole has not been formally demonstrated. This paper presents a novel 6-DoF aerocapture trajectory analysis applied to Uranus. The paper presents the 6-DoF simulation framework, inspired from Mars Science Laboratory. Trajectory comparisons, including Monte Carlo simulations, to existing 3-DoF solutions are presented to understand the information learned from increasing the modeling level-of-fidelity.

Aerocapture↗

Dependence of Dynamic Modeling Accuracy on Sensor Measurements, Mass Properties, and Aircraft Geometry

The NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) nonlinear simulation was used to investigate the effects of errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry on the accuracy of identified parameters in mathematical models describing the flight dynamics and determined from flight data. Measurements from a typical flight condition and system identification maneuver were systematically and progressively deteriorated by introducing noise, resolution errors, and bias errors. The data were then used to estimate nondimensional stability and control derivatives within a Monte Carlo simulation. Based on these results, recommendations are provided for maximum allowable errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry to achieve desired levels of dynamic modeling accuracy. Results using additional flight conditions and parameter estimation methods, as well as a nonlinear flight simulation of the General Dynamics F-16 aircraft, were compared with these recommendations

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of ion-neutral charge exchange collisions and grid erosion in an ion thruster

A combined particle-in-cell (PIC)/Monte Carlo simulation model has been developed in which the PIC method is used to simulate the charge exchange collisions. It is noted that a number of features were reproduced correctly by this code, but that its assumption of two-dimensional axisymmetry for a single set of grid apertures precluded the reproduction of the most characteristic feature of actual test data; namely, the concentrated grid erosion at the geometric center of the hexagonal aperture array. The first results of a three-dimensional code, which takes into account the hexagonal symmetry of the grid, are presented. It is shown that, with this code, the experimentally observed erosion patterns are reproduced correctly, demonstrating explicitly the concentration of sputtering between apertures.

Peng, Xiaohang↗

A single-channel model does not predict visibility of asynchronous gratings

A single channel model is shown to lack the capability to predict the visibility of asynchronous compound gratings. A constant Beta was assumed, based on Monte-Carlo simulations, and used to show that an SE of 6.73 (Limb, 1981) lies outside of an acceptable confidence interval. Potential imbalances between two eyes cannot be as large as 1.5 dB, which can only affect one eye, or one region of a retina. An average unbalance of 0.53 dB (SE = 0.12) employed in experiments to measure thresholds was compensated for by estimated threshold reductions. Trial-to-trial variability was included in the single channel model, as were considerations of retinal inhomogeneity. Temporal sensitivity for 2 and 4 c/deg grating patches were measured, and the amplitude response of a single channel at the two spatial frequencies was obtained. Threshold reductions with a Beta of 3.1 are then determined to not be significant enough to warrant adoption of the single channel model predictions.

Watson, A. B.↗

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Radiation Track Structure and Calculation of Dose Deposition in Nanovolumes

INTRODUCTION: The radiation track structure is of crucial importance to understand radiation damage to molecules and subsequent biological effects. Of a particular importance in radiobiology is the induction of double-strand breaks (DSBs) by ionizing radiation, which are caused by clusters of lesions in DNA, and oxidative damage to cellular constituents leading to aberrant signaling cascades. DSB can be visualized within cell nuclei with gamma-H2AX experiments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In DSB induction models, the DSB probability is usually calculated by the local dose obtained from a radial dose profile of HZE tracks. In this work, the local dose imparted by HZE ions is calculated directly from the 3D Monte-Carlo simulation code RITRACKS. A cubic volume of 5 micron edge (Figure 1) is irradiated by a (Fe26+)-56 ion of 1 GeV/amu (LET approx.150 keV/micron) and by a fluence of 450 H+ ions, 300 MeV/amu (LET approx. 0.3 keV/micron). In both cases, the dose deposited in the volume is approx.1 Gy. The dose is then calculated into each 3D pixels (voxels) of 20 nm edge and visualized in 3D. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The dose is deposited uniformly in the volume by the H+ ions. The voxels which receive a high dose (orange) corresponds to electron track ends. The dose is deposited differently by the 56Fe26+ ion. Very high dose (red) is deposited in voxels with direct ion traversal. Voxels with electron track ends (orange) are also found distributed around the path of the track. In both cases, the appearance of the dose distribution looks very similar to DSBs seen in gammaH2AX experiments, particularly when the visualization threshold is applied. CONCLUSION: The refinement of the dose calculation to the nanometer scale has revealed important differences in the energy deposition between high- and low-LET ions. Voxels of very high dose are only found in the path of high-LET ions. Interestingly, experiments have shown that DSB induced by high-LET radiation are more difficult to repair. Therefore, this new approach may be useful to understand the nature of DSB and oxidative damage induced by ionizing radiation.

Plante, I.↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Carbon Back Sputter Modeling for Hall Thruster Testing

Lifetime requirements for electric propulsion devices, including Hall Effect thrusters, are continually increasing, driven in part by NASA's inclusion of this technology in it's exploration architecture. NASA will demonstrate high-power electric propulsion system on the Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission (SEP TDM). The Asteroid Redirect Robotic mission is one candidate SEP TDM, which is projected to require tens of thousands of thruster life. As thruster life is increased, for example through the use of improved magnetic field designs, the relative influence of facility effects increases. One such effect is the sputtering and redeposition, or back sputter, of facility materials by the high energy thruster plumes. In support of wear testing for the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) project, the back sputter from a Hall effect thruster plume has been modeled for the NASA Glenn Research Center's Vacuum Facility 5. The predicted wear at a near-worst case condition of 600 V, 12.5 kW was found to be on the order of 1 micron/kh in a fully carbon-lined chamber. A more detailed numerical Monte Carlo code was also modified to estimate back sputter for a detailed facility and pumping configuration. This code demonstrated similar back sputter rate distributions, but is not yet accurately modeling the magnitudes. The modeling has been benchmarked to recent HERMeS wear testing, using multiple microbalance measurements. These recent measurements have yielded values on the order of 1.5 - 2 micron/kh at 600 V and 12.5 kW.

Propulsion↗

Carbon Back Sputter Modeling for Hall Thruster Testing

In support of wear testing for the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) program, the back sputter from a Hall effect thruster plume has been modeled for the NASA Glenn Research Centers Vacuum Facility 5. The predicted wear at a near-worst case condition of 600 V, 12.5 kW was found to be on the order of 3 4 mkhour in a fully carbon-lined chamber. A more detailed numerical monte carlo code was also modified to estimate back sputter for a detailed facility and pumping configuration. This code demonstrated similar back sputter rate distributions, but is not yet accurately modeling the magnitudes. The modeling has been benchmarked to recent HERMeS wear testing, using multiple microbalance measurements. These recent measurements have yielded values, on the order of 1.5- 2 microns/khour.

Facility↗

Kepler Uniform Modeling of KOIs: MCMC Notes for Data Release 25

This document describes data products related to the reported planetary parameters and uncertainties for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) based on a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) analysis. Reported parameters, uncertainties and data products can be found at the NASA Exoplanet Archive . The codes used for this data analysis are available on the Github website (Rowe 2016). The relevant paper for details of the calculations is Rowe et al. (2015). The main differences between the model fits discussed here and those in the DR24 catalogue are that the DR25 light curves were used in the analysis, our processing of the MAST light curves took into account different data flags, the number of chains calculated was doubled to 200 000, and the parameters which are reported are based on a damped least-squares fit, instead of the median value from the Markov chain or the chain with the lowest 2 as reported in the past.

DR25↗

Numerical methods for solving the Boltzmann equation (a review)

The methods are reviewed which are utilized in principal attempts to obtain the numerical solution or modeling of the Boltzmann equation over a broad range of Knudsen numbers. The primary methods considered are the Monte Carlo and the discrete velocities methods. The conculsions drawn from the analysis include the following: (1) The Monte Carlo methods are not well suited in the area of small Knudsen numbers. (2) Among the Monte Carlo methods, the Bird method appears to be the most attractive, since it is more directly related to the Boltzmann equation. (3) The deterministic methods, which include the discrete ordinate technique, offer great possibilities but require exceedingly large computer times. (4) The use of approximating equations in combination with the discrete velocities method will possibly improve computation time and reduce the required memory volume.

Limar, Y. F.↗

Wind enhanced planetary escape: Collisional modifications

The problem of thermal escape is considered in which both the effects of thermospheric winds at the exobase and collisions below the exobase are included in a Monte Carlo calculation. The collisions are included by means of a collisional relaxation layer of a background gas which models the transition region between the exosphere and the thermosphere. The wind effects are considered in the limiting cases of vertical and horizontal flows. Two species are considered: terrestrial hydrogen and terrestrial helium. In the cases of terrestrial hydrogen the escape fluxes were found to be strongly filtered or throttled by collisions at high exospheric temperatures. The model is applied to molecular hydrogen diffusing through a methane relaxation layer under conditions possible on Titan. The results are similar to the case of terrestrial hydrogen with wind enhanced escape being strongly suppressed by collisions. It is concluded that wind enhanced escape is not an important process on Titan.

Curtis, S. A.↗

Energy distributions and radiation transport in uranium plasmas

An approximate analytic model, based on continuous electron slowing, has been used for survey calculations. Where more accuracy is required, a Monte Carlo technique is used which combines an analytic representation of Coulombic collisions with a random walk treatment of inelastic collisions. The calculated electron distributions have been incorporated into another code that evaluates both the excited atomic state densities within the plasma and the radiative flux emitted from the plasma.

Miley, G. H.↗

The interaction of helium with alpha-quartz

A detailed method of calculating the three-dimensional interaction of gas atoms with solid surfaces has been developed in order to provide a quantitative means of determining atmospheric evolution and global distribution on exospheric planetary bodies. The computational method involves accurate structural models of the surface and subsurface, and numerical solution of 60-dimensional differential equations of motion in a Monte Carlo calculation of the collision process. Preliminary results for the He-alpha-quartz system are described.

Kunc, J. A.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of reentry flows with ionization

The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method is applied to a rarefied, weakly ionized, hypersonic flow over a blunt axisymmetric body. An ionization model based on the concept of ambipolar diffusion is used and a model for the sheath is presented. The effects of the new modeling techniques are investigated for flow over the Project Fire II configuration at 11.37 km/s at an altitude of 84.6 km. The calculated results are presented and compared with both experimental data and solutions where ionization effects were not included. In general, the calculated results overpredict the experimental values by about 15-20 percent.

Taylor, Jeff C.↗