SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,099 records · Page 61

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling

The Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) package includes an inverse modeling tool that is helpful in identifying characteristics of unknown radioactive materials. Traditionally, uncertainties in this analysis were derived solely from measurement data quality and the fit of synthetic spectra. This paper aims to rigorously quantify additional sources of uncertainty, focusing on uncertainties arising from measurements being analyzed, Detector Response Function (DRF) characterization, and DRF extrapolation. Applying these findings to the BeRPBall benchmark data set, we demonstrated the impact of these uncertainties on plutonium and polyethylene estimates. The results underscore the importance of incorporating diverse uncertainty sources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of GADRAS’s inverse modeling capabilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing

Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850–2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Aerodynamic Challenges for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent and Landing

An overview of several important aerodynamics challenges new to the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle are presented. The MSL entry capsule is a 70 degree sphere cone-based on the original Mars Viking entry capsule. Due to payload and landing accuracy requirements, MSL will be flying at the highest lift-to-drag ratio of any capsule sent to Mars (L/D = 0.24). The capsule will also be flying a guided entry, performing bank maneuvers, a first for Mars entry. The system's mechanical design and increased performance requirements require an expansion of the MSL flight envelope beyond those of historical missions. In certain areas, the experience gained by Viking and other recent Mars missions can no longer be claimed as heritage information. New analysis and testing is re1quired to ensure the safe flight of the MSL entry vehicle. The challenge topics include: hypersonic gas chemistry and laminar-versus-turbulent flow effects on trim angle, a general risk assessment of flying at greater angles-of-attack than Viking, quantifying the aerodynamic interactions induced by a new reaction control system and a risk assessment of recontact of a series of masses jettisoned prior to parachute deploy. An overview of the analysis and tests being conducted to understand and reduce risk in each of these areas is presented. The need for proper modeling and implementation of uncertainties for use in trajectory simulation has resulted in a revision of prior models and additional analysis for the MSL entry vehicle. The six degree-of-freedom uncertainty model and new analysis to quantify roll torque dispersions are presented.

Schoenenberger, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Robust control of hypersonic vehicles considering propulsive and aeroelastic effects

The influence of propulsion system variations and elastic fuselage behavior on the flight control system of an airbreathing hypersonic vehicle is investigated. Thrust vector magnitude and direction changes due to angle of attack variations affect the pitching moment. Low structural vibration frequencies may occur close to the rigid body modes influencing the angle of attack and lead to possible cross coupling. These effects are modeled as uncertainties in the context of a robust control study of a hypersonic vehicle model accelerating through Mach 8 using H-infinity and mu synthesis techniques. Various levels of uncertainty are introduced into the system. Both individual and simultaneous appearance of uncertainty are considered. The results indicate that the chosen design technique is suitable for this kind of problem provided that a fairly good knowledge of the effects mentioned above is available. The order of the designed controller is reduced but robust performance is lost which shows the need for fixed order design techniques.

Buschek, Harald↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a multi-layer canopy model for E3SM Land Model with support for heterogeneous computing

The vertical structure of vegetation canopies creates micro-climates. However, the land components of most Earth System Models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), typically neglect vertical canopy structure by using a single layer big-leaf representation to simulate water, CO 2 , and energy exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, we developed a Multi-Layer Canopy Model for the E3SM Land Model to resolve the micro-climate created by vegetation canopies. The model developed in this study re-implements the CLM-ml_v1 to support heterogeneous computing architectures consisting of CPUs and GPUs and includes three additional optimization-based stomatal conductance models. The use of Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation provides a speedup of 25–50 times on a GPU relative to a CPU. The numerical implementation of the model was verified against CLM-ml_v1 for a month-long simulation using data from the Ameriflux US-University of Michigan Biological Station site. Model structural uncertainty was explored by performing control simulations for five stomatal conductance models that exclude and include the control of plant hydrodynamics (PHD) on photosynthesis. The bias in simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes was lower when PHD was accounted for in the model. Additionally, six idealized simulations were performed to study the impact of three environmental variables (i.e. air temperature, atmospheric CO 2 , and soil moisture) on canopy processes (i.e. net CO 2 assimilation, leaf temperature, and leaf water potential). Increasing air temperature reduced net CO 2 assimilation and increased air temperature. Net CO 2 assimilation increased at higher atmospheric CO 2 , while decreasing soil moisture resulted in lower leaf water potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

What is the Uncertainty in MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth in the Vicinity of Clouds?

MODIS dark-target (DT) algorithm retrieves aerosol optical depth (AOD) using a Look Up Table (LUT) approach. Global comparison of AOD (Collection 6 ) with ground-based sun photometer gives an Estimated Error (EE) of +/-(0.04 + 10%) over ocean. However, EE does not represent per-retrieval uncertainty. For retrievals that are biased high compared to AERONET, here we aim to closely examine the contribution of biases due to presence of clouds and per-pixel retrieval uncertainty. We have characterized AOD uncertainty at 550 nm, due to standard deviation of reflectance in 10 km retrieval region, uncertainty related to gas (H2O, O3) absorption, surface albedo, and aerosol models. The uncertainty in retrieved AOD seems to lie within the estimated over ocean error envelope of +/-(0.03+10%). Regions between broken clouds tend to have higher uncertainty. Compared to C6 AOD, a retrieval omitting observations in the vicinity of clouds (< or = 1 km) is biased by about +/- 0.05. For homogeneous aerosol distribution, clear sky retrievals show near zero bias. Close look at per-pixel reflectance histograms suggests retrieval possibility using median reflectance values.

Patadia, Falguni↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in inventories for life cycle assessment: State‐of‐the‐art, challenges, and new technologies

Uncertainty is a critical factor that can hinder the quality and potential applications of life cycle assessment (LCA) results. A prominent source of uncertainty stems from the life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Various methodologies exist to estimate the uncertainty associated with LCI data, primarily based on the widely used structured pedigree matrix approach or the computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. This perspective review explores how new technologies (e.g., computational algorithms and data collection methods) from data science and related fields can contribute to identifying, quantifying, and reducing uncertainty in LCI modeling. A brief overview of the sources of uncertainty in LCI modeling and how they are addressed in current LCA practice is provided. Additionally, several new technologies are identified, and the potential benefits of their implementation in reducing uncertainties in LCI modeling are discussed. This perspective review concludes by identifying potential areas that require further development for these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗