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DOE OSTI2023

Out-of-distribution generalization for learning quantum dynamics

Generalization bounds are a critical tool to assess the training data requirements of Quantum Machine Learning (QML). Recent work has established guarantees for in-distribution generalization of quantum neural networks (QNNs), where training and testing data are drawn from the same data distribution. However, there are currently no results on out-of-distribution generalization in QML, where we require a trained model to perform well even on data drawn from a different distribution to the training distribution. Here, we prove out-of-distribution generalization for the task of learning an unknown unitary. In particular, we show that one can learn the action of a unitary on entangled states having trained only product states. Since product states can be prepared using only single-qubit gates, this advances the prospects of learning quantum dynamics on near term quantum hardware, and further opens up new methods for both the classical and quantum compilation of quantum circuits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Acoustic-based monitoring and machine learning of component status for microreactor applications

This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning based model reduction for partial differential equations

We develop a novel synergistic approach between model reduction and machine learning. The specific goal of this project is to aid in the construction of reduced order models for basis functions that are custom-made to represent the solution of partial differential equations. Partial differential equations (PDEs) are one of the main mathematical tools for describing physical phenomena. However, due to either efficiency or necessity, for many real-world problems, we are interested in constructing reduced order models (ROMs) which focus only on the explicit computation of subsets of the active spatio-temporal scales in the problem, while treating the interaction with the rest of the scales approximately. The task of accurate representation of such interactions (usually called memory terms) constitutes a vast area of research known as model reduction. PI Stinis has significant expertise in the construction of ROMs for complex systems. In addition, in recent work with the project key participant Qadeer, they have utilized machine learning to acquire custom-made basis functions (CBFs) to expand the solutions of PDEs. In the proposed work, we will merge the two concepts by constructing ROMs for subsets of the CBFs needed to represent the solution of a PDE. Specifically, we will use the Mori-Zwanzig model reduction formalism to construct ROMs for subsets of CBFs for nonlinear PDEs of various complexity, as well as investigate the usage of CBFs in the spectral vanishing viscosity method for problems that can form shocks in finite time. The outcome of the research is aimed to be proof-of-concept about a novel synergistic approach between model reduction and machine learning, thus advancing the field of scientific machine learning. Such a capability will benefit the efficient modeling of physical systems appearing in various areas of interest to the DOE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applications of Nickelate perovskites for neuromorphic computing from electronic structure and Machine Learning

While the limit of Moore's law is presently being reached with current microelectronic technologies, we need to develop new paradigms that overcome this limitation. In that respect, neuromorphic computing is a concept that emulates the neural behavior and response of the human brain, and it has been recognized as a promising alternative approach. In this research project, we will perform multi-fidelity scale bridging to explore the potential use of materials with metal to insulator transition for neuromorphic applications. In particular, rare earth nickelates are promising for such purposes, as the transition in these materials is quite sensitive to a broad set of different external stimuli. Our multi-fidelity approach will bridge the high-fidelity electronic structure calculations with classical potentials. We will bridge dynamical mean field theory with a classical atomistic representation via a deep learning force field. The neural network is trained with energies, charges, and forces obtained by accurate electronic structure theories based on Dynamical Mean Field Theory. The configurational space is generated from known crystal phases, ab initio molecular dynamics with exchange-correlation functionals corrected with the Hubbard model, disordered phases with different concentrations of oxygen vacancies, and nonsymmetrical positions and induced strain by grain interfaces or contact with a substrate. Strategies to train the model with a reduced number of training examples are obtained from active learning methods, and new structures for improving the learning process are generated by using machine learning autoencoders. This classical potential will be validated through a diversity of electronic structure methods and represents an important step to combine the flexibility and accuracy of first-principles with the speed of classical potentials. The generated multi-fidelity surrogate model will be used to understand the role of strain, oxygen vacancies, proton doping, the variation of the crystal phase, substrate effects, vibrational effects as the octahedral rotation, grain boundaries and defect effects on the response of a Metal to Insulator Transition (MIT) in correlated materials. Long time and large-scale simulations will help understand the role of different stimuli to control the hysteresis of the MIT, as it has been experimentally suggested. Selected configurations will be analyzed with higher-level theories to provide an accurate electronic description and to study how the orbitals and charges are rearranged under different conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual to Physical: Reinforcement Learning to Optimize SNS Particle Accelerator Controls

Complex accelerators must have control systems that can handle dynamic nonlinear environments. This makes traditional control methods unsuitable as they can struggle to adapt to these uncertainties. This provides an ideal environment for reinforcement learning algorithms as they are adaptable and generalizable. We present a reinforcement learning pipeline that can effectively handle the dynamics of a complex accelerator. We test and prove our pipelines capabilities on multiple environments including the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at Oakridge National Lab (ORNL). Due to the limited time available to train an online algorithm like reinforcement learning on a real accelerator, we utilize a virtual twin accelerator (VIRAC) developed by ORNL to pretrain the policy and show its ability to converge in the virtual environment. We then test the adaptability of the pretrained RL model by applying it on the real accelerator and comparing the results. Utilizing our Scientific Optimization and Controls Toolkit (SOCT) and open-source standards such as Gymnasium we create and solve for a MEBT orbit correction problem in the SNS and an emittance maximization problem in the BTF. We show how Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) can solve this optimization environment in the virtual accelerator and transfer this policy onto the real accelerator for inference and model retraining. We show how reinforcement learning can be utilized as a control system for complex accelerators and provide a model pipeline for how an implementation performs and can be adapted to new accelerator control problems.

Kasparian, Armen [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Accuracy of Machine Learning Forecasts

To improve the accuracy of forecasting in machine learning, we must investigate multiple machine learning models and see how accurately they can predict values after training. We used seven machine learning models to try and get more accurate predictions. The models that were used were ARIMA, SES, MLP, CART, LightGBM, and XGBoost. We used a processed dataset from a Terminal at LAX that had the number of people traveling through terminal X every hour in March from 2015-2019. We trained our models with the dates March 6 - March 19 to predict the value for March 20th and the hours 6:00 am to 6:00 pm since those are the most popular traveling hours. By using the different models, we had varying results of accuracy when estimating the amount of people traveling through terminal X on March 20th. We know that machine learning models are helpful for forecasting and by seeing how accurately these models can predict, we can see how forecasting can be helpful for other issues. Using these methods, airports can use forecasting to predict the amount of people coming in and out and can use these predictions to prepare their resource management, operational efficiency, and overall passenger experience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient learning of t -doped stabilizer states with single-copy measurements

One of the primary objectives in the field of quantum state learning is to develop algorithms that are time-efficient for learning states generated from quantum circuits. Earlier investigations have demonstrated time-efficient algorithms for states generated from Clifford circuits with at most log ⁡ ( n ) non-Clifford gates. However, these algorithms necessitate multi-copy measurements, posing implementation challenges in the near term due to the requisite quantum memory. On the contrary, using solely single-qubit measurements in the computational basis is insufficient in learning even the output distribution of a Clifford circuit with one additional T gate under reasonable post-quantum cryptographic assumptions. In this work, we introduce an efficient quantum algorithm that employs only nonadaptive single-copy measurement to learn states produced by Clifford circuits with a maximum of O ( log ⁡ n ) non-Clifford gates, filling a gap between the previous positive and negative results.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Arbitrary Polynomial Separations in Trainable Quantum Machine Learning

Recent theoretical results in quantum machine learning have demonstrated a general trade-off between the expressive power of quantum neural networks (QNNs) and their trainability; as a corollary of these results, practical exponential separations in expressive power over classical machine learning models are believed to be infeasible as such QNNs take a time to train that is exponential in the model size. We here circumvent these negative results by constructing a hierarchy of efficiently trainable QNNs that exhibit unconditionally provable, polynomial memory separations of arbitrary constant degree over classical neural networks—including state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers—in performing a classical sequence modeling task. This construction is also computationally efficient, as each unit cell of the introduced class of QNNs only has constant gate complexity. We show that contextuality—informally, a quantitative notion of semantic ambiguity—is the source of the expressivity separation, suggesting that other learning tasks with this property may be a natural setting for the use of quantum learning algorithms.

Anschuetz, Eric R. [California Institute of Techno↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Modeling and Control of Dynamical Systems

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) is a set of methods and tools that systematically integrate machine learning (ML) algorithms with physical constraints and abstract mathematical models developed in scientific and engineering domains. As opposed to purely data-driven methods, {PIML} models can be trained from additional information obtained by enforcing physical laws such as energy and mass conservation. More broadly, {PIML} models can include abstract properties and conditions such as stability, convexity, or invariance. The basic premise of {PIML} is that the integration of ML and physics can yield more effective, physically consistent, and data-efficient models. This paper aims to provide a tutorial-like overview of the recent advances in {PIML} for dynamical system modeling and control. Specifically, the paper covers an overview of the theory, fundamental concepts and methods, tools, and applications on topics of: 1) physics-informed learning for system identification; 2) physics-informed learning for control; 3) analysis and verification of {PIML} models; and 4) physics-informed digital twins. The paper is concluded with a perspective on open challenges and future research opportunities.

Nghiem, Truong↗

DOE OSTI2019

Deep learning to generate in silico chemical property libraries and candidate molecules for small molecule identification in complex samples

Comprehensive and unambiguous identification of small molecules in complex samples will revolutionize our understanding of the role of metabolites in biological systems. Existing and emerging technologies have enabled measurement of chemical properties of molecules in complex mixtures and, in concert, are sensitive enough to resolve even stereoisomers. Despite these experimental advances, small molecule identification is inhibited by (i) chemical reference libraries (e.g. mass spectra, collision cross section, and other measurable property libraries) representing <1% of known molecules, limiting the number of possible identifications, and (ii) the lack of a method to generate candidate matches directly from experimental features (i.e. without a library). To this end, we developed a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn a continuous numerical, or latent, representation of molecular structure to expand reference libraries for small molecule identification. We extended the VAE to include a chemical property decoder, trained as a multitask network, in order to shape the latent representation such that it assembles according to desired chemical properties. The approach is unique in its application to metabolomics and small molecule identification, with its focus on properties that can be obtained from experimental measurements (m/z, CCS) paired with its training paradigm, which involved a cascade of transfer learning iterations. First, molecular representation is learned from a large dataset of structures with m/z labels. Next, in silico property values are used to continue training, as experimental property data is limited. Finally, the network is further refined by being trained with the experimental data. This allows the network to learn as much as possible at each stage, enabling success with progressively smaller datasets without overfitting. Once trained, the network can be used to predict chemical properties directly from structure, as well as generate candidate structures with desired chemical properties. Our approach is orders of magnitude faster than first-principles simulation for CCS property prediction. Additionally, the ability to generate novel molecules along manifolds, defined by chemical property analogues, positions DarkChem as highly useful in a number of application areas, including metabolomics and small molecule identification, drug discovery and design, chemical forensics, and beyond.

Colby, Sean M↗

DOE OSTI2026

Custom-trained Machine-learning Interatomic Potentials: ZnCl2 Aqueous Solution

This dataset was generated using an iterative active-learning strategy implemented in the ArcaNN software package (https://github.com/arcann-chem/arcann_training) to train machine-learning interatomic potentials for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions. Each active-learning cycle consisted of three stages: training, exploration, and labeling. The initial training set combined configurations generated in this work from enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with configurations from a previously reported neural-network-potential study of aqueous ZnCl2. The enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations involved Zn–Cl separation and the chloride coordination number around Zn²? as collective variables. These configurations served as the seed dataset. Subsequent active-learning cycles expanded the training set by identifying and labeling configurations that were poorly represented by the current models, thereby improving coverage of ion-association states and changes in local coordination and charge-state environments relevant to the solution free-energy landscape. For all selected configurations, single-point calculations of the total energies and atomic forces were performed within density functional theory using the CP2K Quickstep module. Reference calculations employed the revPBE-D3 and r2SCAN exchange-correlation functionals. Motivated by recent work on aqueous Zn²?, the main revPBE calculations omitted D3 dispersion contributions involving Zn²?, while retaining the D3 correction for water and chloride. For comparison, fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 reference calculations were also performed, with D3 applied to all species, including Zn²?. Valence electrons were treated explicitly, while core electrons were represented using norm-conserving Goedecker–Teter–Hutter pseudopotentials. The wave functions were expanded using the mixed Gaussian-and-plane-wave scheme with TZV2P-MOLOPT basis sets for all elements and a 600 Ry auxiliary plane-wave cutoff for the electron density. Self-consistent-field convergence was accelerated using the orbital-transformation and Direct Inversion in the Iterative Subspace algorithms, with a convergence threshold of 10?6. All single-point calculations were performed in periodic orthorhombic cells. The CELL_REF keyword in CP2K was used to define a fixed reference cell with a box length of 25 Å. This treatment ensured a consistent reference for configurations extracted from NpT trajectories with fluctuating cell dimensions. The resulting DFT energies and atomic forces constitute the ground-truth labels used to train the MLIPs. The resulting MLIP was trained for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions spanning concentrations from 0 to 30 molal and a broad pH range, from strongly acidic to strongly basic conditions. Representative examples of configurations included in the MLIP training dataset are provided below. These include 1) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the revPBE-D3 level, with D3 dispersion interactions involving Zn2+ excluded (revPBE-wo-D3). 2) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 level, with D3 interactions applied to all species, including Zn2+ (revPBE-D3). 3) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the r2SCAN level of theory (r2SCAN).

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗

DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability

The solar industry in the US typically uses a credit score such as the FICO score as an indicator of consumer utility payment performance and credit worthiness to approve customers for new solar installations. Using data on over 800,000 utility payment performance and over 5,000 demographic variables, we compare machine learning and econometric models to predict the probability of default to credit-score cutoffs. Here, we compare these models across a variety of measures, including how they affect consumers of different socio-economic backgrounds and profitability. We find that a traditional regression analysis using a small number of variables specific to utility repayment performance greatly increases accuracy and LMI inclusivity relative to FICO score, and that using machine learning techniques further enhances model performance. Relative to FICO, the machine learning model increases the number of low-to-moderate income consumers approved for community solar by 1.1% to 4.2% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers, while decreasing the default rate by 1.4 to 1.9 percentage points. Using electricity utility repayment as a proxy for solar installation repayment, shifting from a FICO score cutoff to the machine learning model increases profits by 34% to 1882% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers.

Davuluri, Sruthi↗

DOE OSTI2016

Finding new perovskite halides via machine learning

Advanced materials with improved properties have the potential to fuel future technological advancements. However, identification and discovery of these optimal materials for a specific application is a non-trivial task, because of the vastness of the chemical search space with enormous compositional and configurational degrees of freedom. Materials informatics provides an efficient approach toward rational design of new materials, via learning from known data to make decisions on new and previously unexplored compounds in an accelerated manner. Here, we demonstrate the power and utility of such statistical learning (or machine learning, henceforth referred to as ML) via building a support vector machine (SVM) based classifier that uses elemental features (or descriptors) to predict the formability of a given ABX 3 halide composition (where A and B represent monovalent and divalent cations, respectively, and X is F, Cl, Br, or I anion) in the perovskite crystal structure. The classification model is built by learning from a dataset of 185 experimentally known ABX 3 compounds. After exploring a wide range of features, we identify ionic radii, tolerance factor, and octahedral factor to be the most important factors for the classification, suggesting that steric and geometric packing effects govern the stability of these halides. As a result, the trained and validated models then predict, with a high degree of confidence, several novel ABX 3 compositions with perovskite crystal structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Role of the site of synaptic competition and the balance of learning forces for Hebbian encoding of probabilistic Markov sequences

The majority of distinct sensory and motor events occur as temporally ordered sequences with rich probabilistic structure. Sequences can be characterized by the probability of transitioning from the current state to upcoming states (forward probability), as well as the probability of having transitioned to the current state from previous states (backward probability). Despite the prevalence of probabilistic sequencing of both sensory and motor events, the Hebbian mechanisms that mold synapses to reflect the statistics of experienced probabilistic sequences are not well understood. Here, we show through analytic calculations and numerical simulations that Hebbian plasticity (correlation, covariance, and STDP) with pre-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights equal to the conditional forward transition probabilities present in the input sequence. In contrast, post-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights proportional to the conditional backward probabilities of the same input sequence. We demonstrate that to stably reflect the conditional probability of a neuron’s inputs and outputs, local Hebbian plasticity requires balance between competitive learning forces that promote synaptic differentiation and homogenizing learning forces that promote synaptic stabilization. The balance between these forces dictates a prior over the distribution of learned synaptic weights, strongly influencing both the rate at which structure emerges and the entropy of the final distribution of synaptic weights. Together, these results demonstrate a simple correspondence between the biophysical organization of neurons, the site of synaptic competition, and the temporal flow of information encoded in synaptic weights by Hebbian plasticity while highlighting the utility of balancing learning forces to accurately encode probability distributions, and prior expectations over such probability distributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Experiment with LLMs as Database Design Tutors: Persistent Equity and Fairness Challenges in Online Learning

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, their capacity to replace humans as their surrogates is also improving. As increasing numbers of intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) are embracing the integration of LLMs for digital tutoring, questions are arising as to how effective they are and if their hallucinatory behaviors diminish their perceived advantages. One critical question that is seldom asked if the availability, plurality, and relative weaknesses in the reasoning process of LLMs are contributing to the much discussed digital divide and equity and fairness in online learning. In this paper, we present an experiment with database design theory assignments and demonstrate that while their capacity to reason logically is improving, LLMs are still prone to serious errors. We demonstrate that in online learning and in the absence of a human instructor, LLMs could introduce inequity in the form of “wrongful” tutoring that could be devastatingly harmful for learners, which we call ignorant bias, in increasingly popular digital learning. We also show that significant challenges remain for STEM subjects, especially for subjects for which sound and free online tutoring systems exist. Based on the set of use cases, we formulate a possible direction for an effective ITS for online database learning classes of the future.

Jamil, Hasan M. (ORCID:0000000231243780)↗