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DOE OSTI2021

Classifying Seyfert Galaxies with Deep Learning

The traditional classification for a subclass of the Seyfert galaxies is visual inspection or using a quantity defined as a flux ratio between the Balmer line and forbidden line. One algorithm of deep learning is the convolution neural network (CNN), which has shown successful classification results. We build a one-dimensional CNN model to distinguish Seyfert 1.9 spectra from Seyfert 2 galaxies. We find that our model can recognize Seyfert 1.9 and Seyfert 2 spectra with an accuracy of over 80% and pick out an additional Seyfert 1.9 sample that was missed by visual inspection. We use the new Seyfert 1.9 sample to improve the performance of our model and obtain a 91% precision of Seyfert 1.9. These results indicate that our model can pick out Seyfert 1.9 spectra among Seyfert 2 spectra. We decompose the Hα emission line of our Seyfert 1.9 galaxies by fitting two Gaussian components and derive the line width and flux. We find that the velocity distribution of the broad Hα component of the new Seyfert 1.9 sample has an extending tail toward the higher end, and the luminosity of the new Seyfert 1.9 sample is slightly weaker than the original Seyfert 1.9 sample. This result indicates that our model can pick out the sources that have a relatively weak broad Hα component. In addition, we check the distributions of the host galaxy morphology of our Seyfert 1.9 samples and find that the distribution of the host galaxy morphology is dominated by a large bulge galaxy. In the end, we present an online catalog of 1297 Seyfert 1.9 galaxies with measurements of the Hα emission line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updated Void Catalogs of the SDSS DR7 Main Sample

Abstract We produce several public void catalogs using a volume-limited subsample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR7). Using new implementations of three different void-finding algorithms, VoidFinder and two ZOBOV-based algorithms (VIDE and REVOLVER), we identify 1163, 531, and 518 cosmic voids with radii >10 h −1 Mpc, respectively, out to a redshift of z = 0.114 assuming a Planck 2018 cosmology, and 1184, 535, and 519 cosmic voids assuming a WMAP5 cosmology. We compute effective radii and centers for all voids and find none with an effective radius >54 h −1 Mpc. The median void effective radius is 15–19 h −1 Mpc for all three algorithms. We extract and discuss several properties of the void populations, including radial density profiles, the volume fraction of the catalog contained within voids, and the fraction of galaxies contained within voids. Using 64 mock galaxy catalogs created from the Horizon Run 4 N -body simulation, we compare simulated and observed void properties and find good agreement between the SDSS DR7 and mock catalog results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Propagating Uncertainties in the SALT3 Model-training Process to Cosmological Constraints

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are standardizable candles that must be modeled empirically to yield cosmological constraints. To understand the robustness of this modeling to variations in the model-training procedure, we build an end-to-end pipeline to test the recently developed SALT3 model. We explore the consequences of removing pre-2000s low-z or poorly calibrated U-band data, adjusting the amount and fidelity of SN Ia spectra, and using a model-independent framework to simulate the training data. We find that the SALT3 model surfaces are improved by having additional spectra and U-band data, and can be shifted by ~5% if host-galaxy contamination is not sufficiently removed from SN spectra. We find that resulting measurements of w are consistent to within 2.5% for all of the training variants explored in this work, with the largest shifts coming from variants that add color-dependent calibration offsets or host-galaxy contamination to the training spectra and those that remove pre-2000s low-z data. These results demonstrate that the SALT3 model-training procedure is largely robust to reasonable variations in the training data, but that additional attention must be paid to the treatment of spectroscopic data in the training process. We also find that the training procedure is sensitive to the color distributions of the input data—the resulting w measurement can be biased by ~2% if the color distribution is not sufficiently wide. Future low-z data, particularly u-band observations and high signal-to-noise ratio SN Ia spectra, will help to significantly improve SN Ia modeling in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stellar Neutrino Emission across the Mass–Metallicity Plane

We explore neutrino emission from nonrotating, single-star models across six initial metallicities and 70 initial masses from the zero-age main sequence to the final fate. Overall, across the mass spectrum, we find metal-poor stellar models tend to have denser, hotter, and more massive cores with lower envelope opacities, larger surface luminosities, and larger effective temperatures than their metal-rich counterparts. Across the mass–metallicity plane we identify the sequence (initial CNO → 14 N → 22 Ne → 25 Mg → 26 Al → 26 Mg → 30 P → 30 Si) as making primary contributions to the neutrino luminosity at different phases of evolution. For the low-mass models we find neutrino emission from the nitrogen flash and thermal pulse phases of evolution depend strongly on the initial metallicity. For the high-mass models, neutrino emission at He-core ignition and He-shell burning depends strongly on the initial metallicity. Antineutrino emission during C, Ne, and O burning shows a strong metallicity dependence with 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg providing much of the neutron excess available for inverse-β decays. We integrate the stellar tracks over an initial mass function and time to investigate the neutrino emission from a simple stellar population. We find average neutrino emission from simple stellar populations to be 0.5–1.2 MeV electron neutrinos. Lower metallicity stellar populations produce slightly larger neutrino luminosities and average β decay energies. This study can provide targets for neutrino detectors from individual stars and stellar populations. We provide convenient fitting formulae and open access to the photon and neutrino tracks for more sophisticated population synthesis models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supernova Siblings: Assessing the Consistency of Properties of Type Ia Supernovae that Share the Same Parent Galaxies

While many studies have shown a correlation between properties of the light curves of SNe Ia and properties of their host galaxies, it remains unclear what is driving these correlations. We introduce a new direct method to study these correlations by analyzing "parent" galaxies that host multiple SNe Ia "siblings." In this study, we search the Dark Energy Survey SN sample, one of the largest samples of discovered SNe, and find eight galaxies that hosted two likely SNe Ia. Comparing the light-curve properties of these SNe and recovered distances from the light curves, we find no better agreement between properties of SNe in the same galaxy as any random pair of galaxies, with the exception of the SN light-curve stretch. We show at 2.8 σ significance that at least one-half of the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia distance modulus residuals is not from common host properties. We also discuss the robustness with which we could make this evaluation with LSST, which will find 100 × more pairs of galaxies, and pave a new line of study on the consistency of SNe Ia in the same parent galaxies. Finally, we argue that it is unlikely that some of these SNe are actually single, lensed SN with multiple images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Connection between Emission and Absorption Outflows through the Study of Quasars with Extremely High Velocity Outflows

A recently discovered class of outflows, extremely high velocity outflows (EHVOs), may be key to understanding feedback processes, as it is likely the most powerful in terms of mass energy. These EHVOs have been observed at redshifts 1.052 < z em < 7.641, but the potential connection with outflows in emission has not been studied. We find that EHVOs, albeit their small numbers at the moment, appear to show distinct C IV and He II properties. In particular, EHVOs are more predominant in quasars with large blueshifts of the C IV emission line, suggesting a connection between emission and absorption outflowing signatures for these extreme outflows. We also find incipient trends with the maximum velocity of the outflows, which is similar to what has been previously found in BALQSOs but now extending previous studies to speeds up to ~0.2c. We find that the bolometric luminosities, Eddington ratios, and black hole masses of our sample are overall very similar to the general quasar population upon considering their C IV emission properties. This is close to the case for He II EW, as we observe a tentative upper limit to the He II strength for a quasar to host an EHVO. This study shows that extreme outflows such as EHVOs appear in quasars that are clearly a distinct class from the overall BALQSO population and solidify the relation between outflows observed in emission and absorption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Puzzling Variation of Gamma Rays from the Sun over the Solar Cycle Revealed with Fermi-LAT

The steady-state gamma-ray emission from the Sun is thought to consist of two emission components due to interactions with Galactic cosmic rays: (1) a hadronic disk component, and (2) a leptonic extended component peaking at the solar edge and extending into the heliosphere. The flux of these components is expected to vary with the 11 yr solar cycle, being highest during solar minimum and lowest during solar maximum, as it varies with the cosmic-ray flux. No study has yet analyzed the flux variation of each component over solar cycles. In this work, we measure the temporal variations of the flux of each component over 15 yr of Fermi Large Area Telescope observations and compare them with the sunspot number and Galactic cosmic-ray flux from AMS-02 near Earth. We find that the flux variation of the disk anticorrelates with the sunspot number and correlates with cosmic-ray protons, as expected, confirming its emission mechanism. In contrast, the extended component exhibits a more complex variation: despite an initial anticorrelation with the sunspot number, we find neither anticorrelation with the sunspot number nor correlation with cosmic-ray electrons over the full 15 yr period. This most likely suggests that cosmic-ray transport and modulation in the inner heliosphere are unexpectedly complex and may differ for electrons and protons or, alternatively, that there is an additional, unknown component of gamma rays or cosmic rays. These findings impact space weather research and emphasize the need for close monitoring of Cycle 25 and the ongoing polarity reversal.

Acharyya, A. [Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (D↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Atmospheres of Post-impact Worlds: The Early Earth

Impacts may have had a significant effect on the atmospheric chemistry of the early Earth. Reduced phases in the impactor (e.g., metallic iron) can reduce the planet's H 2 O inventory to produce massive atmospheres rich in H 2 . While previous studies have focused on the interactions between the impactor and atmosphere in such scenarios, we investigate two further effects: (1) the distribution of the impactor's iron inventory during impact between the target interior, target atmosphere, and escaping the target; and (2) interactions between the post-impact atmosphere and the impact-generated melt phase. We find that these two effects can potentially counterbalance each other, with the melt–atmosphere interactions acting to restore reducing power to the atmosphere that was initially accreted by the melt phase. For a ~10 22 kg impactor, when the iron accreted by the melt phase is fully available to reduce this melt, we find an equilibrium atmosphere with H 2 column density ~10 4 moles cm –2 (pH 2 ~ 120 bars, X H2 ~ 0.77), consistent with previous estimates. However, when the iron is not available to reduce the melt (e.g., sinking out in large diameter blobs), we find significantly less H 2 (7 × 10 2 – 5 × 10 3 moles cm –2 , pH 2 ≲ 60 bars, X H2 ≲ 0.41). These lower H 2 abundances are sufficiently high that species important to prebiotic chemistry can form (e.g., NH 3 , HCN), but sufficiently low that the greenhouse heating effects associated with highly reducing atmospheres, which are problematic to such chemistry, are suppressed. The manner in which iron is accreted by the impact-generated melt phase is critical in determining the reducing power of the atmosphere and resolidified melt pool in the aftermath of impact.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Do Piperonyl Butoxide Long-Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets Provide Additional Protection Against Malaria Infections Compared with Conventional Nets in an Operational Setting in Western Kenya?

Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa has stagnated despite widespread adoption of control measures such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Progress has stalled, in part, because of pyrethroid insecticide resistance, driving the need for retooling to increase the effectiveness of bed nets. Consequently, LLINs have been treated with the chemical synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). Piperonyl butoxide LLINs have been shown to be efficacious in controlled settings; however, their effectiveness in real-world settings warrants investigation. In Bungoma County, Western Kenya, a cohort of 768 participants was followed from June 2017 to December 2023 via active and passive surveillance. Household visits were conducted monthly, during which LLIN use for nets distributed in 2017 and 2021 was recorded, and symptomatic malaria cases were identified using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The comparative effectiveness of PBO versus conventional LLINs was assessed in terms of malaria infections. A multilevel logistic regression model was fit with monthly RDT results as the dependent variable. The study results indicate that PBO LLINs provide greater protection against malaria at the individual level than conventional LLINs (odds ratio: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.47–1.03), although the findings were not statistically significant. The added protection against malaria infections provided by PBO LLINs compared with conventional LLINs observed in the current study aligns with findings from most previous studies, although this finding was not statistically significant. In areas with documented pyrethroid resistance, the use of LLINs with an added synergist, such as PBO, can provide additional protection against malaria infections (compared with pyrethroid-only LLINs) and should be considered for scaled-up scenarios despite the additional cost.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of Differential Equations by Dynamics-Guided Weighted Weak Form with Voting

In the identification of differential equations from data, significant progresses have been made with the weak/integral formulation. In this paper, we explore the direction of finding more efficient and robust test functions adaptively given the observed data. While this is a difficult task, we propose weighting a collection of localized test functions for better identification of differential equations from a single trajectory of noisy observations on the differential equation. We find that using high dynamic regions is effective in finding the equation as well as the coefficients, and propose a dynamics indicator per differential term and weight the weak form accordingly. For stable identification against noise, we further introduce a voting strategy to identify the active features from an ensemble of recovered results by selecting the features that frequently occur in different weighting of test functions. Systematic numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the robustness of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The final WaZP galaxy cluster catalog of the Dark Energy Survey and comparison with SZE data

In this work, we present and characterize the galaxy cluster catalog detected by the WaZP cluster finder, which is not based on red-sequence identification, on the full six years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y6). The full catalog contains over 400k detected clusters with richnesses, Ngals, above 5 and that reach redshifts up to 1.3. We also provide a version of the catalog where the observation depth and richness computation are homogenized to be used for cosmology, containing 33k rich (Ngals >25) clusters. We compare our results with the previous WaZP catalog obtained from the DES first-year data release (DES-Y1). We find that essentially all clusters within the common footprint and depth limit are recovered. The deeper observations on DES-Y6 and the more complete available spectroscopic redshift sample lead to improvements in the redshifts of the clusters, resulting in an average scatter of 1.4% and offset of 0.2%. The optical clusters are also cross-matched with Sunyaev Zel'dovich Effect (SZE) cluster samples detected by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We find that essentially all SZE clusters with reasonable overlapping footprint have a corresponding WaZP cluster. Conversely, 90% of the optical detections with richness greater than 150 have a counterpart in the deeper regions of the SZE surveys. Based on cross-match with the SZE catalogs, we also find that 15-20% of the SZE matched systems have more than one possible WaZP counterpart at the same redshift and within the SZE R500c, indicating possible interacting or unrelaxed systems. Finally, given the optical and SZE beams, WaZP and SZE centerings are found to be consistent. A more detailed study of the SZE-WaZP mass-richness relation will be presented in a separate paper.

Benoist, C. [OCA, Nice, Lab. Lagrange; LIneA, Rio ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The potential role of organics in new particle formation and initial growth in the remote tropical upper troposphere

Abstract. Global observations and model studies indicate that new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere (UT) and subsequent particles supply 40 %–60 % of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere, thus affecting the Earth's radiative budget. There are several plausible nucleation mechanisms and precursor species in this atmospheric region, which, in the absence of observational constraints, lead to uncertainties in modeled aerosols. In particular, the type of nucleation mechanism and concentrations of nucleation precursors, in part, determine the spatial distribution of new particles and resulting spatial distribution of CCN from this source. Although substantial advances in understanding NPF have been made in recent years, NPF processes in the UT in pristine marine regions are still poorly understood and are inadequately represented in global models. Here, we evaluate commonly used and state-of-the-art NPF schemes in a Lagrangian box model to assess which schemes and precursor concentrations best reproduce detailed in situ observations. Using measurements of aerosol size distributions (0.003 < Dp < 4.8 µm) in the remote marine troposphere between ∼0.18 and 13 km altitude obtained during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, we show that high concentrations of newly formed particles in the tropical UT over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are associated with outflow regions of deep convective clouds. We focus analysis on observations over the remote Pacific Ocean, which is a region less perturbed by continental emissions than the Atlantic. Comparing aerosol size distribution measurements over the remote Pacific with box model simulations for 32 cases shows that none of the NPF schemes most commonly used in global models, including binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (neutral and ion-assisted) and ternary involving sulfuric acid, water, and ammonia, are consistent with observations, regardless of precursor concentrations. Through sensitivity studies, we find that the nucleation scheme among those tested that is able to explain most consistently (21 of 32 cases) the observed size distributions is that of Riccobono et al. (2014), which involves both organic species and sulfuric acid. The method of Dunne et al. (2016), involving charged sulfuric acid–water–ammonia nucleation, when coupled with organic growth of the nucleated particles, was most consistent with the observations for 5 of 32 cases. Similarly, the neutral sulfuric acid–water–ammonia method of Napari (2002), when scaled with a tuning factor and with organic growth added, was most consistent for 6 of 32 cases. We find that to best reproduce both nucleation and growth rates, the mixing ratios of gas-phase organic precursors generally need to be at least twice that of SO2, a proxy for dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Unfortunately, we have no information on the nature of oxidized organic species that participated in NPF in this region. Global models rarely include organic-driven nucleation and growth pathways in UT conditions where globally significant NPF takes place, which may result in poor estimates of NPF and CCN abundance and contribute to uncertainties in aerosol–cloud–radiation effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that the organic aerosol precursor vapors may be important in the tropical UT above marine regions, a finding that should guide future observational efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of expanded marine sulfur chemistry to the seasonal variability of dimethyl sulfide oxidation products and size-resolved sulfate aerosol

Marine emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and the subsequent formation of its oxidation products methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) are well-known natural precursors of atmospheric aerosols, contributing to particle mass and cloud formation over ocean and coastal regions. Despite a long recognized and well-studied role in the marine troposphere, DMS oxidation chemistry remains a work in progress within many current air quality and climate models, with recent advances exploring heterogeneous chemistry and uncovering previously unknown intermediate species. With the identification of additional DMS oxidation path ways and intermediate species that influence the eventual fate of DMS, it is important to understand the impact of these pathways on the overall sulfate aerosol budget and aerosol size distribution. In this work, we update and evaluate the DMS oxidation mechanism of the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem by implementing expanded DMS oxidation pathways in the model. These updates include gas- and aqueous-phase reactions, the formation of the intermediates dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and methanesulfinic acid (MSIA), and cloud loss and aerosol uptake of the recently quantified intermediate hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF). We find that this updated mechanism collectively decreases the global mean surface-layer gas-phase sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) mixing ratio by 40 % and enhances the sulfate aerosol ($SO^{2-}_{4}$) mixing ratio by 17 %. We further perform sensitivity analyses exploring the contribution of cloud loss and aerosol uptake of HPMTF to the overall sulfur budget. Comparing modeled concentrations to available observations, we find improved biases relative to previous studies. To quantify the impacts of these chemistry updates on global particle size distributions and the mass concentration, we use the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics module coupled to GEOS-Chem and find that changes in particle formation and growth affect the size distribution of aerosol. With this new DMS-oxidation scheme, the global annual mean surface-layer number concentration of particles with diameters smaller than 80 nm decreases by 16.8 %, with cloud loss processes related to HPMTF being mostly responsible for this reduction. However, the global annual mean number of particles larger than 80 nm (corresponding to particles capable of acting as cloud condensation nuclei, CCN) increases by 3.8 %, suggesting that the new scheme promotes seasonal particle growth to these sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dust semi-direct effects: low-level cloud response to free-tropospheric dust-induced longwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean

Aerosol semi-direct effect is the adjustment of the radiative budget due to the cloud response to radiation absorption. Although dust accounts for about a third of aerosols' shortwave absorption, our understanding of its semi-direct effect often relies on traditional shortwave-focused mechanisms previously established for biomass-burning aerosols, and implications of dust longwave absorption on clouds have yet to be explored. Here, we assess the low-level cloud cover (LLCC) response to changes in properties and characteristics of the free-tropospheric dust layer over the North Atlantic Ocean (May–August, 2007–2017). We find that, consistent with previous studies, LLCC typically responds positively (increases in clouds) to an overlying dust layer. However, this response weakens with increasing dust optical depth (DOD), dust geometric thickness (DGT), and dust-layer base height (DBH). Specifically, we find that the LLCC response weakens by 4.3 ± 1.04 % and 1.6 ± 0.65 %, respectively, for a one-standard-deviation increase in DOD and DGT, and a smaller response to DBH (0.19 ± 0.45 %). We also find that the weakened LLCC response is primarily due to enhanced dust-induced longwave-dominated cloud-top warming, which counteracts the mean cloud-top cooling by as much as 19 % (mean of 9 %). Sensitivity analysis further indicates that the variability in dust properties, influenced by dust size distribution and refractive index, dominates the changes in dust-induced cloud-top warming, rather than variabilities in cloud properties or thermodynamic profiles. Our result adds to the traditional understanding of LLCC enhancement through shortwave-driven atmospheric stability, often associated with aerosol semi-direct effects, and highlights the role of dust-induced cloud-top longwave warming in dust semi-direct effects.

Pandey, Satyendra K. [Univ. of California, Merced,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion kinetics of 3 He in pyroxene and plagioclase and applications to cosmogenic exposure dating and paleothermometry in mafic rocks

In this study, we investigate the diffusivity of cosmogenic 3 He in a variety of plagioclase and pyroxene compositions, and its application to paleothermometry and exposure dating in these minerals, through stepwise degassing experiments. While cosmogenic 3 He has been utilized for exposure dating in pyroxene for decades due to its retentivity, plagioclase, often found along with pyroxene in mafic rocks, is generally less retentive of cosmogenic noble gas. However, the diffusivity of 3 He in either plagioclase or pyroxene has not yet been measured quantitatively. A challenge in measuring diffusion kinetics by step-degassing experiments in poorly retentive minerals is the fact that significant amounts of He can be lost prior to the experiment. To address this issue, we apply a forward “multiple diffusion domain” (MDD) inversion model that includes model predictions of initial gas loss during irradiation and storage of the samples to account for this observation and add constraints to the diffusion parameters. We find that 3 He diffusivity in plagioclase appears to be highly variable. This variability can be explained by the MDD inversion models' inability to constrain the diffusion parameters when significant gas has been lost during irradiation and/or prolonged storage prior to experiment analysis, resulting in an overestimation of 3 He retentivity. Plagioclase samples that were kept frozen after irradiation, to limit this initial gas loss, yielded the most reliable estimate of diffusion kinetics. We find that 3 He in plagioclase is diffusively lost at Earth's surface temperatures on a timescale of 100 years and is therefore unsuitable for surface temperature paleothermometry. On the contrary, we find cosmogenic 3 He in pyroxene to be retentive at Earth's surface temperatures on a 1-million-year timescale.

Bergelin, Marie [Berkeley Geochronology Center (BG↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1°C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2°C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3°C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23°C(±0.12°C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗