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NASA NTRS2016

Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps

BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.

Masterova, K.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

NASA NTRS2017

VIIP 2017 Clinical Update

INTRODUCTION: NASA's Space Medicine community knowledge regarding the "Vision Impairment Intracranial Pressure", or VIIP.has been evolving over time.. Various measures of occupational health related to this condition had to be determined and then plans/processes put into place. The most robust of these processes were inititated in 2010. This presentation will provide a clinic update of the astronaut occupational health data related to VIIP. METHODS: NASA and its international partners require its astronauts to undergo routine health measures deemed important to monitoring VIIP. The concern is that the spaceflight environment aboard ISS could cause some astronauts to have physiologic changes detrimental to either ongoing mission operations or long-term health related to the ocular system and possibly the CNS. Specific medical tests include but are not limited to brain/orbit MRI (NASA unique protocol), OCT, fundoscopy and ocular ultrasound. Measures are taken prior to spaceflight, in-flight and post-flight. Measures to be reported include incidence of disc edema, globe flattening, choroidal folds, ONSD and change in refractive error. RESULTS: 73 ISS astronauts have been evaluated at least partially for VIIP related measures. Of these individuals, approximately 1 in 7 have experienced disc edema. The prevalence of the other findings is more complicated as the medical testing has changed over time. Overall, 26 separate individuals have experienced at least one of the findings NASA has associated with VIIP Another confounding factor is most of the astronauts have prior spaceflight experience at the time of the "pre-flight" testing. DISCUSSION: In 2010 NASA and its US operating segment (USOS) partners (CSA, ESA and JAXA) began routine occupational monitoring and data collection for most VIIP related changes. Interpretation of that data is extremely challenging for several reasons. For example, the determination of disc edema is the most complete finding as we have had highly qualified optometrists routinely and competently performing post-flight funduscopic exams for the entirety of the ISS program. Yet in 2013 NASA added OCT to our in-flight suite of eye exams. Shortly after routine screening with the OCT, a new term appeared within VIIP vernacular - "subclinical disc edema". OCT has much greater ability to measure change within the retina and provides significantly more data to analyze, understand and communicate out. Communicating VIIP data clearly adds even more challenge. Historically we've reported data per eye and not necessarily per person. This has led to difficulty in understanding how many individuals have experienced "VIIP" within the aerospace medicine community. The presenter will attempt to provide clear and concise communication of VIIP findings.

Tarver, William↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evidence for Surface Water Ice in the Lunar Polar Regions Using Reflectance Measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and Temperature Measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

We find that the reflectance of the lunar surface within 5 deg of latitude of theSouth Pole increases rapidly with decreasing temperature, near approximately 110K, behavior consistent with the presence of surface water ice. The North polar region does not show this behavior, nor do South polar surfaces at latitudes more than 5 deg from the pole. This South pole reflectance anomaly persists when analysis is limited to surfaces with slopes less than 10 deg to eliminate false detection due to the brightening effect of mass wasting, and also when the very bright south polar crater Shackleton is excluded from the analysis. We also find that south polar regions of permanent shadow that have been reported to be generally brighter at 1064 nm do not show anomalous reflectance when their annual maximum surface temperatures are too high to preserve water ice. This distinction is not observed at the North Pole. The reflectance excursion on surfaces with maximum temperatures below 110K is superimposed on a general trend of increasing reflectance with decreasing maximum temperature that is present throughout the polar regions in the north and south; we attribute this trend to a temperature or illumination-dependent space weathering effect (e.g. Hemingway et al. 2015). We also find a sudden increase in reflectance with decreasing temperature superimposed on the general trend at 200K and possibly at 300K. This may indicate the presence of other volatiles such as sulfur or organics. We identified and mapped surfaces with reflectances so high as to be unlikely to be part of an ice-free population. In this south we find a similar distribution found by Hayne et al. 2015 based on UV properties. In the north a cluster of pixels near that pole may represent a limited frost exposure.

Emily A Fisher↗

NASA NTRS2018

Ozone Sensitivity to Varying Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances in CCMI-1 Simulations

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

CCMI↗

NASA NTRS2018

Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area as Derived from Land Surface Temperature and Radar Remote Sensing Data

Lake Chad, located in the middle of the African Sahel belt, underwent dramatic decreases in the 1970s and 1980s leaving less than ten percent of its 1960s surface water extent as open water. In this paper, we present an extended record (dry seasons 1988-2016) of the total surface water area of the lake (including both open water and flooded vegetation) derived using Land Surface Temperature (LST) data (dry seasons 2000-2016) from the NASA Terra MODIS sensor and EUMETSAT Meteosat-based LST measurements (dry seasons 1988-2001) from an earlier study. We also examine the total surface water area for Lake Chad using radar data (dry seasons 2015-2016) from the ESA Sentinel-1a mission. For the limited number of radar data sets available to us (18 data sets), we find on average a close match between the estimates from these data and the corresponding estimates from LST, though we find spatial differences in the estimates using the two types of data. We use these spatial differences to adjust the record (dry seasons 2000-2016) from MODIS LST. Then we use the adjusted record to remove the bias of the existing LST record (dry seasons 1988-2001) derived from Meteosat measurements and combine the two records. From this composite, extended record, we plot the total surface water area of the lake for the dry seasons of 1988-1989 through 2016-2017. We find for the dry seasons of 1988-1989 to 2016-2017 that the maximum total surface water area of the lake was approximately 16,800 sq. km (February and May, 2000), the minimum total surface water area of the lake was approximately 6400 sq. km (November, 1990), and the average was approximately 12,700 sq. km. Further, we find the total surface water area of the lake to be highly variable during this period, with an average rate of increase of approximately 143 sq. km per year.

Policelli, Frederick↗

NASA NTRS2018

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: The Interaction Between Causes of Degradation and the Association with Degradation Prevention and Recovery

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

human performance↗

NASA NTRS2018

The NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds

In this article, we summarize the work of the NASA Outer Planets Assessment Group (OPAG) Roadmaps to Ocean Worlds (ROW) group. The aim of this group is to assemble the scientific framework that will guide the exploration of ocean worlds, and to identify and prioritize science objectives for ocean worlds over the next several decades. The overarching goal of an Ocean Worlds exploration program as defined by ROW is to “identify ocean worlds, characterize their oceans, evaluate their habitability, search for life, and ultimately understand any life we find.” The ROW team supports the creation of an exploration program that studies the full spectrum of ocean worlds, that is, not just the exploration of known ocean worlds such as Europa but candidate ocean worlds such as Triton as well. The ROW team finds that the confirmed ocean worlds Enceladus, Titan, and Europa are the highest priority bodies to target in the near term to address ROW goals. Triton is the highest priority candidate ocean world to target in the near term. A major finding of this study is that, to map out a coherent Ocean Worlds Program, significant input is required from studies here on Earth; rigorous Research and Analysis studies are called for to enable some future ocean worlds missions to be thoughtfully planned and undertaken. A second finding is that progress needs to be made in the area of collaborations between Earth ocean scientists and extraterrestrial ocean scientists.

Hendrix, Amanda R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

On the 2018 Outburst of the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1756.9-2508 As Seen with NICER

We report on the coherent timing analysis of the 182 Hz accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SwiftJ1756.92508during its 2018 outburst as observed with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Combiningour NICER observations with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts, we alsostudied the long-term spin and orbital evolution of this source. We find that the binary system is well describedby a constant orbital period model, with an upper limit on the orbital period derivative of Pb < 7.4 Â´ 10-13 ss1.Additionally, we improve upon the source coordinates through astrometric analysis of the pulse arrival times,finding R.A.=17h56m57 18Â±0 08 and decl.=25Â°0627 8Â±3 5, while simultaneously measuring thelong-term spin frequency derivative as n = -7.3 Â´ 10-16 Hzs1. We briefly discuss the implications of thesemeasurements in the context of the wider population of accreting millisecond pulsars. We reported on the coherent timing analysis of the 2018 outburst of Swift J1756 as observed with NICER. Consistent with analyses of the previous outbursts (Krimm et al. 2007b; Patruno et al. 2010), we find that the X-ray pulsations have energy dependent amplitudes; the fractional amplitude of the fundamental increases with energy, whereas the fractional amplitude of the harmonic shows a slight decline with energy. This energy dependent behavior is not unusual in AMXPs (Patruno & Watts 2012) and can be interpreted in terms of the thermal emission from the stellar hotspot and reprocessing in the accretion column (e.g., Gierliński et al. 2002; Ibragimov & Poutanen 2009). The pulse arrival times of the 2018 outburst are well described by a timing model consisting of a circular orbit with a constant spin frequency. The pulse phases with respect to this model do not show spurious residuals with time or orbital phase, and no evidence is found that the pulse arrival times exhibit an additional delay associated with passing through the gravitational well of the companion star (Shapiro delay). We note, however, that the expected Shapiro delay is given as (Shapiro et al. 1971) Equation (5) where Φ is the orbital phase, G is the gravitational constant, c is the speed of light, and i is the inclination. Even for the maximum allowed companion mass, ${M}_{C}=0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$ (Krimm et al. 2007b, but see Section 4.2 for more details) and an inclination of 90°, the largest delay we can expect is only 4 μs. As this time-delay is smaller than the uncertainty on our phase residuals by nearly two orders of magnitude (see Figure 1), we are not sensitive to Shapiro delays in Swift J1756. Comparing our measurements for the 2018 outburst with those of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts as observed with RXTE, we analyzed the long-term evolution of this source. We found that the binary system is consistent with having a constant orbital period and that the pulsar shows a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{\nu }=-7.3\times {10}^{-16}\,\mathrm{Hz}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$. 4.1. Spin-down Evolution The long-term spin frequency derivative measured in Swift J1756 is of the same order as the spin frequency derivatives measured in other AMXPs (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno 2010; Riggio et al. 2011). This frequency change is most likely driven by the neutron star's loss of rotational energy. If so, then the spin-down luminosity is given as Equation (6) where I represents the neutron star moment of inertia. The long-term spin-down of a neutron star is usually assumed to be dominated by the braking torque associated with a spinning magnetic field. Assuming this mechanism is responsible for the observed spin-down in Swift J1756, we can compute the magnetic dipole moment as (Spitkovsky 2006) Equation (7) where α is the misalignment angle between the rotational and magnetic poles. Considering α = 0°–90°, we then find a magnetic field strength of $B\simeq (4\mbox{--}6)\times {10}^{8}$ G at the stellar magnetic poles. This magnetic field strength estimate is in line with those obtained for other accreting millisecond pulsars (see Mukherjee et al. 2015 and references therein). 4.2. Orbit Evolution The observed long-term binary evolution of Swift J1756 is consistent with this source having a constant orbital period and a lower limit on the evolutionary timescale of Equation (8) Binary evolution theory predicts that systems of this type evolve due to angular momentum loss through gravitational radiation (Kraft et al. 1962; Rappaport et al. 1982; Verbunt 1993). For conservative mass transfer, the binary period derivative is given by di Salvo et al. (2008), Equation (9) where MNS is the neutron star mass, $q={M}_{C}/{M}_{\mathrm{NS}}$ is the binary mass ratio, and −1/3 < n < 1 is the mass–radius index of the companion star. Depending on the source inclination, Krimm et al. (2007b) derived a companion mass of ${M}_{C}\,=0.007\mbox{--}0.022\,{M}_{\odot }$ for a neutron star mass of 1.4 ${M}_{\odot }$. For a neutron star mass of 2.2 ${M}_{\odot }$, the allowed range increased to ${M}_{C}=0.009\mbox{--}0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$. In both cases, they assumed an upper limit on the inclination of i < 85°, motivated by the fact that Swift J1756 does not show eclipses in its light curve. Accounting for the extreme cases of stellar masses and n, the binary may either be contracting or expanding. In either case, however, the rate of change is limited to $| {\dot{P}}_{b}| \lesssim 7\times {10}^{-14}$ s s−1, which is well below the upper limit obtained in this work. Although the binary evolution timescale we obtain for Swift J1756 is consistent with theory, it is worth noting that this is not generally true for low-mass X-ray binaries (see Patruno et al. 2017, for a comprehensive discussion). The AMXP SAX J1808.4–3658, in particular, has been found to evolve on a much shorter timescale, with a first derivative on the orbital period of $3.5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1 (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno et al. 2012; Sanna et al. 2017a). Two models have been proposed to explain this discrepancy: highly nonconservative mass transfer due to irradiation of the companion star by the pulsar (di Salvo et al. 2008; Burderi et al. 2009), and spin–orbit coupling in the companion star (Hartman et al. 2008, 2009). While the latter depends on the companion star, and may vary from source to source, the former should operate in all AMXPs (see also Patruno 2017; Sanna et al. 2017c), including Swift J1756. The spin-down luminosity impinging on the companion star can be estimated as Equation (10) where ${\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}$ is the ablation luminosity, RL2 is the Roche lobe radius of the companion (Eggleton 1983), and a the binary separation. The irradiation fraction is $f={\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}/{\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{sd}}$, which, accounting for the range of allowed neutron star and companion masses, evaluates to f = 0.15%–0.35%. The associated mass loss for the companion is given by Equation (11) such that, assuming an efficiency of η = 100%, ${\dot{M}}_{C}\,\sim -3\times {10}^{-10}\,{M}_{\odot }$ yr−1. The effect of this mass loss on the orbital period follows through the relation (Frank et al. 2002) Equation (12) giving a period derivative due to mass loss of ${\dot{P}}_{b,\mathrm{ML}}\,=5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1. This value is well above our limit on the period derivative. Hence, in order for this mechanism to be consistent with our observations of Swift J1756, the efficiency at which the companion star converts the incident luminosity into mass loss must be η < 15%. This value is very different from the 40% required in SAX J1808.4–3658 (Patruno et al. 2016) and is instead in line with the <5% efficiency determined for IGR J00291+5934 (Patruno 2017). This work was supported by NASA through the NICER mission and the Astrophysics Explorers Program, and made use of data and software provided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center (HEASARC). P.B. was supported by an NPP fellowship at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. D.A. acknowledges support from the Royal Society.

Bult, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2017

Concepts for the Design of Human-Autonomy Systems

Over the last two years a number of workshops or similar meetings have been held under the auspice of NASA Ames Research Center that, although dealing with different primary foci, considered at some level the cross-cutting topic of humans-autonomous systems and the partnership between them. This publication presents findings from the reports of these meetings as they inform the process of designing autonomous systems to work in conjunction with humans. Some workshops were highly relevant to this question, others less so. Drawing from conclusions in these reports, this publication presents, at a high level, a summary of issues that could usefully be considered in the design process of automated systems working with human agents. Although differing in emphases, reports from the several workshops reflect many similar beliefs regarding human-autonomy teaming (HAT). Conclusions can be viewed as generally applicable to various aviation venues—air, ground, and air-ground interactions. The objective of the workshops was primarily to identify issues, concerns, and research needs associated with evolving human-autonomy systems—not in providing solutions. The analysis herewithin is generally limited to the findings in the workshop reports. And, since there was often commonality in findings among the several reports, no attempt is made to ascribe particular findings or observations to particular reports.

autonomy↗

NASA NTRS2018

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: Identification of Causes of Degradation, Interactions, and Mitigation of Degradation in Air Traffic Control

human performance↗

NASA NTRS2019

The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: The Frequency Dependence of Pulse Jitter in Precision Millisecond Pulsars

Low-frequency gravitational-wave experiments require the highest timing precision from an array of the moststable millisecond pulsars. Several known sources of noise on short timescales in single radio pulsar observationsare well described by a simple model of three components: template fitting from a finite signal-to-noise ratio, pulsephase/amplitude jitter from single-pulse stochasticity, and scintillation errors from short-timescale interstellarscattering variations. Currently template-fitting errors dominate, but as radio telescopes push toward higher signalto-noise ratios, jitter becomes the next dominant term for most millisecond pulsars. Understanding the statistics ofjitter becomes crucial for properly characterizing arrival time uncertainties. We characterize the radio frequencydependence of jitter using data on 48 pulsars in the North American Nanohertz Observatory for GravitationalWaves timing program. We detect significant jitter in 43 of the pulsars and test several functional forms for itsfrequency dependence; we find significant frequency dependence for 30 pulsars. We find moderate correlations ofrms jitter with pulse width (R = 0.62) and number of profile components (R = 0.40); the single-pulse rms jitter istypically 1% of pulse phase. The average frequency dependence for all pulsars using a power-law model hasindex 0.42. We investigate the jitter variations for the interpulse of PSR B1937+21 and find no significantdeviations from the main pulse rms jitter. We also test the time variation of jitter in two pulsars and find thatsystematics likely bias the results for high-precision pulsars. Pulsar timing array analyses must properly modeljitter as a significant component of the noise within the detector.

Lam, M. T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: The Interaction Between Causes of Degradation and the Association with Degradation Prevention and Recovery

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control (ATC) across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers (ATCOs - Air Traffic Control Officers) participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

Graceful Degradation↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Terrestrial Validation of ICESat Elevation Measurements and Implications for Global Reanalyses

The primary goal of NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was to detect centimeter-level changes in global ice sheet elevations at the spatial scale of individual ice streams. Confidence in detecting these small signals requires careful validation over time to characterize the uncertainty and stability of measured elevations. A common validation approach compares altimeter elevations to an independently characterized and stable reference surface. Using a digital elevation model (DEM) from geodetic surveys of one such surface, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, we show that ICESat elevations at this location have a 0.0-centimeter bias relative to the WGS84 ellipsoid, 4.0-centimeter (1-sigma) uncertainty overall, and 1.8-centimeter uncertainty under ideal conditions over short (50 kilometer) profiles. We observe no elevation bias between ascending and descending orbits, but we do find that elevations measured immediately after transitions from low to high surface albedo may be negatively biased. Previous studies have reported intercampaign biases (ICBs) between various ICESat observation campaigns, but we find no statistically significant ICBs or ICB trends in our data. We do find a previously unreported 3.1-centimeter bias between ICESat's Laser 2 and Laser 3, and we find even larger interlaser biases in reanalyzed data from other studies. For an altimeter with an exact repeat orbit like ICESat, we also demonstrate that validation results with respect to averaged elevation profiles along a single ground track are comparable to results obtained using reference elevations from an in situ survey.

Laser Ranging↗

NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying the Contribution of Microbursts to Global Electron Loss in the Radiation Belts

We use the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer to explore the relationship between microbursts and global flux decay of electrons from the outer Van Allen belt during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms. We investigate the correlation between microbursts and global electron loss in each of the quasi‐trapped (drift loss cone), stably trapped, and untrapped electron (bounce loss cone) populations. For the quasi‐trapped electrons, we separately classify the storms as driven by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions and explore their connection to microburst loss. We find that the decay lifetime of electron fluxes, that is, e‐folding times of macroscopic fluxes in the recovery phase is correlated with strong microburst activity. That is, when the microburst activity is high, global flux decay times are short, and vice versa, suggesting a cross‐scale coupling between microloss and macroloss phenomena. Furthermore, we find that the microburst to global loss coupling is predominant in the quasi‐trapped population of radiation belt electrons while having negligible influence on the untrapped and stably trapped populations. We find that microburst activity during storms driven by coronal mass ejections is coupled more strongly with global flux decay as compared with corotating interaction regions. In addition, we find that distance from the plasmapause is likely a better indicator of microburst location than L‐shell, with most microbursts occurring ~0.5–2.0 L from the model plasmapause location.

Greeley, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Expanding the Sample of Radio Minihalos in Galaxy Clusters

Radio minihalos are diffuse synchrotron sources of unknown origin found in the cool cores of some galaxy clusters. We use GMRT and VLA data to expand the sample of minihalos by reporting three new minihalo detections (A2667, A907, and PSZ1 G139.61+24.20) and confirming minihalos in five clusters (MACS J0159.8–0849, MACS J0329.6–0211, RXC J2129.6+0005, AS 780, and A3444). With these new detections and confirmations, the sample now stands at 23, the largest sample to date. For consistency, we also reanalyze archival VLA 1.4 GHz observations of seven known minihalos. We revisit possible correlations between the nonthermal emission and the thermal properties of their cluster hosts. Consistent with our earlier findings from a smaller sample, we find no strong relation between the minihalo radio luminosity and the total cluster mass. Instead, we find a strong positive correlation between the minihalo radio power and X-ray bolometric luminosity of the cool core (r < 70 kpc). This supplements our earlier result that most, if not all, cool cores in massive clusters contain a minihalo. Comparison of radio and Chandra X-ray images indicates that the minihalo emission is typically confined by concentric sloshing cold fronts in the cores of most of our clusters, supporting the hypothesis that minihalos arise from electron reacceleration by turbulence caused by core gas sloshing. Taken together, our findings suggest that the origin of minihalos should be closely related to the properties of thermal plasma in cluster cool cores.

Galaxies radio continuum↗

NASA NTRS2020

Feasibility Study of SDAS Instrumentation's Ability to Identify Mobile Launcher (ML)/Crawler-Transporter (CT) Modes During Rollout Operations

The Space Launch System (SLS) and its Mobile Launcher (ML) will be transported to the launch pad via the Crawler-Transporter (CT) system. Rollout (i.e., transportation) loads produce structural loads on the integrated SLS/Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) launch vehicle which are of a concern with respect to fatigue. As part of the risk reduction process and in addition to the modal building block test approach that has been adopted by the SLS Program, acceleration data will be obtained during rollout for use in modal parameter estimation. There are several occurrences where the ML/CT will be transported either into the Vertical Assembly Building (VAB) or to the launch pad and back without the SLS stack as part of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Integrated Test and Checkout (ITCO). NASA KSC EGS has instrumentation installed on both the ML and CT to record data during rollout, at the launch pad, and during liftoff. The EGS instrumentation on the ML, which includes accelerometers, is referred to as the Sensor Data Acquisition System (SDAS). The EGS instrumentation on the CT, which also includes accelerometers, is referred to as the CT Data Acquisition System (CTDAS). The forces and accelerations applied to the ML and CT during a rollout event will be higher than any of the planned building block modal tests. This can be very beneficial in helping identify nonlinear behavior in the structure. Developing modal parameters from the same test hardware in multiple boundary conditions and under multiple levels of excitation is a key step in developing a well correlated FEM. The purpose of this study was three fold. First, determine the target modes of the ML/CT in its rollout configuration. Second, determine if the test degrees of freedom (DOF) corresponding to the layout of the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) is sufficient to identify the target modes. Third, determine if the Generic Rollout Forcing Functions (GRFF's) is sufficient for identifying the ML/CT target modes accounting for variations in CT speed, modal damping, and sensor/ambient background noise levels. The finding from the first part of this study identified 28 target modes of the ML/CT rollout configuration based upon Modal Effective Mass Fractions (MEFF) and engineering judgement. The finding from the second part of this study showed that the SDAS/CTDAS accelerometers (i.e. position and orientation) are able to identify a sufficient number of the target modes to support model correlation of the ML/CT FEM. The finding from the third part of this study confirms the GRFFs sufficiently excite the ML/CT such that varying quantities of the defined target modes should be able to be extracted when utilizing an Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA) Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) analysis approach. An EMA analysis approach was used because Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) tools were not available and the GRFFs were sufficiently uncorrelated. Two key findings from this third part of the study are that the CT speed does not show a significant impact on the ability to extract the modal parameters and that keeping the ambient background noise observed at each accelerometer location at or below 30 µgrms is essential to the success of this approach.

Winkel, James P.↗

NASA NTRS2019

OGLE-2017-BLG-1186: First Application of Asteroseismology and Gaussian Processes to microlensing

We present the analysis of the event OGLE-2017-BLG-1186 from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. This is a remarkable microlensing event because its source is photometrically bright and variable, which makes it possible to perform an asteroseismic analysis using ground-based data. We find that the source star is an oscillating red giant with average timescale of ∼9 d. The asteroseismic analysis also provides us source properties including the source angular size (∼27 μas) and distance (∼11.5 kpc), which are essential for inferring the properties of the lens. When fitting the light curve, we test the feasibility of Gaussian processes (GPs) in handling the correlated noise caused by the variable source. We find that the parameters from the GP model are generally more loosely constrained than those from the traditional χ(exp 2) minimization method. We note that this event is the first microlensing system for which asteroseismology and GPs have been used to account for the variable source. With both finite-source effect and microlens parallax measured, we find that the lens is likely a ∼0.045 Mʘ brown dwarf at distance ∼9.0 kpc, or a ∼0.073 Mʘ ultracool dwarf at distance ∼9.8 kpc. Combining the estimated lens properties with a Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model, we find a ∼ 35 per cent probability for the lens to be a bulge object and ∼ 65 per cent to be a background disc object.

S.-S. Li↗