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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Forecasts of geomagnetic activities and HF radio propagation conditions made at Hiraiso/Japan

The Hiraiso Branch of RRL prediction techniques are summarized separately for the 27 day recurrent storm and the flare-associated storm. The storm predictions are compared with the actual geomagnetic activities in two ways. The first one is the comparison on a day to day basis. In the second comparison, the accuracy of the storm predictions during 1965-1976 are evaluated. In addition to the storm prediction, short-term predictions of HF radio propagation conditions are conducted at Hiraiso. The HF propagation predictions are briefly described as an example of the applications of the magnetic storm prediction.

Marubashi, K.↗

PPS76: A computerized event mode solar proton forecasting technique

A procedure was developed to generate a computerized time intensity profile of the solar proton intensity expected at the Earth after the occurrence of a significant solar flares on the Sun. A combination of many pieces of independent research and theoretical results are included. A construction of selected experimental and theoretical results from the entire domain of solar terrestrial physics is given.

Smart, D. F.↗

Forecast analysis of optical waveguide bus performance

Elements to be considered in the design of a data bus include: architecture; data rate; modulation, encoding, detection; power distribution requirements; protocol, work structure; bus reliability, maintainability; interterminal transmission medium; cost; and others specific to application. Fiber- optic data bus considerations for a 32 port transmissive star architecture, are discussed in a tutorial format. General optical-waveguide bus concepts, are reviewed. The electrical and optical performance of a 32 port transmissive star bus, and the effects of temperature on the performance of optical-waveguide buses are examined. A bibliography of pertinent references and the bus receiver test results are included.

Ledesma, R.↗

Wheat forecast economics effect study

A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Possibilities of forecasting hypercholesterinemia in pilots

The dependence of the frequency of hypercholesterinemia on the age, average annual flying time, functional category, qualification class, and flying specialty of 300 pilots was investigated. The risk probability coefficient of hypercholesterinemia was computed. An evaluation table was developed which gives an 84% probability of forcasting risk of hypercholesterinemia.

Vivilov, P.↗

Forecast of long term coal supply and mining conditions: Model documentation and results

A coal industry model was developed to support the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in its investigation of advanced underground coal extraction systems. The model documentation includes the programming for the coal mining cost models and an accompanying users' manual, and a guide to reading model output. The methodology used in assembling the transportation, demand, and coal reserve components of the model are also described. Results presented for 1986 and 2000, include projections of coal production patterns and marginal prices, differentiated by coal sulfur content.

Source record↗

Severe storms forecast systems

Two research tasks are described: (1) the improvement and enhancement of an existing mesoscale numerical simulation system, and (2) numerical diagnostic studies associated with an individual case of severe storm development (April 10, 1979 in the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma).

Kaplan, M.↗

Discharge forecasts in mountain basins based on satellite snow cover mapping

The author has identified the following significant results. A snow runoff model developed for European mountain basins was used with LANDSAT imagery and air temperature data to simulate runoff in the Rocky Mountains under conditions of large elevation range and moderate cloud cover (cloud cover of 40% or less during LANDSAT passes 70% of the time during a snowmelt season). Favorable results were obtained for basins with area not exceeding serval hundred square kilometers and with a significant component of subsurface runoff.

Martinec, J.↗

Subjective evaluation of the combined influence of satellite temperature sounding data and increased model resolution on numerical weather forecasting

The present evaluation is concerned with (1) the significance of prognostic differences resulting from the inclusion of satellite-derived temperature soundings, (2) how specific differences between the SAT and NOSAT prognoses evolve, and (3) comparison of two experiments using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences general circulation model. The subjective evaluation indicates that the beneficial impact of sounding data is enhanced with increased resolution. It is suggested that satellite sounding data posses valuable information content which at times can correct gross analysis errors in data sparse regions.

Atlas, R.↗

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

Chhikara, R. S.↗