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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis of the ZEM-3 Measurement System

The measurement of Seebeck coefficient and electrical resistivity are critical to the investigation of all thermoelectric systems. Therefore, it stands that the measurement uncertainty must be well understood to report ZT values which are accurate and trustworthy. A detailed uncertainty analysis of the ZEM-3 measurement system has been performed. The uncertainty analysis calculates error in the electrical resistivity measurement as a result of sample geometry tolerance, probe geometry tolerance, statistical error, and multi-meter uncertainty. The uncertainty on Seebeck coefficient includes probe wire correction factors, statistical error, multi-meter uncertainty, and most importantly the cold-finger effect. The cold-finger effect plagues all potentiometric (four-probe) Seebeck measurement systems, as heat parasitically transfers through thermocouple probes. The effect leads to an asymmetric over-estimation of the Seebeck coefficient. A thermal finite element analysis allows for quantification of the phenomenon, and provides an estimate on the uncertainty of the Seebeck coefficient. The thermoelectric power factor has been found to have an uncertainty of +9-14 at high temperature and 9 near room temperature.

Seebeck effect↗
NASA NTRS2013

Covariance Analysis Tool (G-CAT) for Computing Ascent, Descent, and Landing Errors

G-CAT is a covariance analysis tool that enables fast and accurate computation of error ellipses for descent, landing, ascent, and rendezvous scenarios, and quantifies knowledge error contributions needed for error budgeting purposes. Because GCAT supports hardware/system trade studies in spacecraft and mission design, it is useful in both early and late mission/ proposal phases where Monte Carlo simulation capability is not mature, Monte Carlo simulation takes too long to run, and/or there is a need to perform multiple parametric system design trades that would require an unwieldy number of Monte Carlo runs. G-CAT is formulated as a variable-order square-root linearized Kalman filter (LKF), typically using over 120 filter states. An important property of G-CAT is that it is based on a 6-DOF (degrees of freedom) formulation that completely captures the combined effects of both attitude and translation errors on the propagated trajectories. This ensures its accuracy for guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) analysis. G-CAT provides the desired fast turnaround analysis needed for error budgeting in support of mission concept formulations, design trade studies, and proposal development efforts. The main usefulness of a covariance analysis tool such as G-CAT is its ability to calculate the performance envelope directly from a single run. This is in sharp contrast to running thousands of simulations to obtain similar information using Monte Carlo methods. It does this by propagating the "statistics" of the overall design, rather than simulating individual trajectories. G-CAT supports applications to lunar, planetary, and small body missions. It characterizes onboard knowledge propagation errors associated with inertial measurement unit (IMU) errors (gyro and accelerometer), gravity errors/dispersions (spherical harmonics, masscons), and radar errors (multiple altimeter beams, multiple Doppler velocimeter beams). G-CAT is a standalone MATLAB- based tool intended to run on any engineer's desktop computer.

Boussalis, Dhemetrios↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Modeling Approach for a Priori Uncertainties of Laser Tracker Angle Measurements

Methods for modeling the uncertainty in laser tracker angle measurements vary within the metrology industry, leading to confusion and questionable stochastic modeling for survey network adjustments and error propagation analysis. Interpreting the published laser tracker manufacturer performance specifications to determine an a priori sigma value for weighting azimuth and zenith angle measurements can be confusing and has led to differing implementations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a unique way to model survey network a priori laser tracker angular uncertainties based on laser tracker manufacturers’ published maximum permissible error (MPE) values referenced to current standards for weighting survey network measurements. This paper’s proposed model takes into account the disparate effects that pointing errors, target centering errors, and leveling errors have on azimuth and zenith angular uncertainties for measurements with steep sightings and at near ranges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

CDGPS-Based Relative Navigation for Multiple Spacecraft

This thesis investigates the use of Carrier-phase Differential GPS (CDGPS) in relative navigation filters for formation flying spacecraft. This work analyzes the relationship between the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) design parameters and the resulting estimation accuracies, and in particular, the effect of the process and measurement noises on the semimajor axis error. This analysis clearly demonstrates that CDGPS-based relative navigation Kalman filters yield good estimation performance without satisfying the strong correlation property that previous work had associated with "good" navigation filters. Several examples are presented to show that the Kalman filter can be forced to create solutions with stronger correlations, but these always result in larger semimajor axis errors. These linear and nonlinear simulations also demonstrated the crucial role of the process noise in determining the semimajor axis knowledge. More sophisticated nonlinear models were included to reduce the propagation error in the estimator, but for long time steps and large separations, the EKF, which only uses a linearized covariance propagation, yielded very poor performance. In contrast, the CDGPS-based Unscented Kalman relative navigation Filter (UKF) handled the dynamic and measurement nonlinearities much better and yielded far superior performance than the EKF. The UKF produced good estimates for scenarios with long baselines and time steps for which the EKF would diverge rapidly. A hardware-in-the-loop testbed that is compatible with the Spirent Simulator at NASA GSFC was developed to provide a very flexible and robust capability for demonstrating CDGPS technologies in closed-loop. This extended previous work to implement the decentralized relative navigation algorithms in real time.

Mitchell, Megan Leigh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-Space Pseudopotential Method for the Calculation of Third-Row Elements X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopic Signatures

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful characterization technique that unveils subtle chemical environment differences via core– electron binding energy (CEBE) analysis. We extend the development of realspace pseudopotential methods to calculating 1s, 2s, and 2p 3/2 CEBEs of third-row elements (S, P, and Si) within the framework of Kohn–Sham density-functional theory (KS-DFT). The new approach systematically prevents variational collapse and simplifies core-excited orbital selection within dense energy level distributions. However, careful error cancellation analysis is required to achieve accuracy comparable to all-electron methods and experiments. Combined with real-space KS-DFT implementation, this development enables large-scale simulations with both Dirichlet boundary conditions and periodic boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2015

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

error analysis↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precision X-band radio Doppler and ranging navigation: Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario

This article describes an error covariance analysis based on a Mars Observer mission scenario; the study was performed to establish the navigation performance that can potentially be achieved in a demonstration of precision two-way X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging with the Mars Observer spacecraft planned for next year, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in ground system error modeling assumptions. Orbit determination error statistics computed for a 182-day Doppler and ranging data arc predicted Mars approach orbit determination accuracies of about 0.45 micro-rad in an angular sense, using a conservative ground system error model as a baseline. When less-conservative error model assumptions were employed, it was found that orbit determination accuracies of 0.19 to 0.30 micro-rad could be obtained; the level of accuracy of the assumed Mars ephemeris is about 0.11 micro-rad. In comparison, Doppler-only performance with the baseline error model was predicted to be about 1.30 to 1.51 micro-rad, although it was found that when improved station location accuracies and Global Positioning System-based tropospheric calibration accuracies were assumed, accuracies of 0.44 to 0.52 micro-rad were predicted. In the Doppler plus ranging cases, the results were relatively insensitive to variations in ranging system and station delay calibration uncertainties of a few meters and tropospheric zenith delay calibration uncertainties of a few centimeters.

Estefan, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Scout trajectory error propagation computer program

Since 1969, flight experience has been used as the basis for predicting Scout orbital accuracy. The data used for calculating the accuracy consists of errors in the trajectory parameters (altitude, velocity, etc.) at stage burnout as observed on Scout flights. Approximately 50 sets of errors are used in Monte Carlo analysis to generate error statistics in the trajectory parameters. A covariance matrix is formed which may be propagated in time. The mechanization of this process resulted in computer program Scout Trajectory Error Propagation (STEP) and is described herein. Computer program STEP may be used in conjunction with the Statistical Orbital Analysis Routine to generate accuracy in the orbit parameters (apogee, perigee, inclination, etc.) based upon flight experience.

Myler, T. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The eXtended virtual element method for elliptic problems with weakly singular solutions

This paper introduces a novel eXtended virtual element method, an extension of the conforming virtual element method. The X-VEM is formulated by incorporating appropriate enrichment functions in the local spaces. The method is designed to handle highly generic enrichment functions, including singularities arising from fractured domains. By achieving consistency on the enrichment space, the method is proven to achieve arbitrary approximation orders even in the presence of singular solutions. The paper includes a complete convergence analysis under general assumptions on mesh regularity, and numerical experiments validating the method’s accuracy on various mesh families, demonstrating optimal convergence rates in the L 2 - and H 1 - norms on fractured or L-shaped domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Navigational demands of low-level helicopter flight

The present study was designed to assess the verbal references to map, terrain, direction, and position, that navigators and pilots communicate during a simulated low-level flight. Two-person crews were asked to communicate normally while negotiating six short flight missions that varied widely in regard to map-terrain characteristics. Half of the crews performed the exercises with fixed, north-up maps and the other half used movable maps that were adjusted to maintain a track-up correspondence to the flight route. An analysis was performed to compare differences in crew communication patterns between map orientations, characteristics, and navigation tasks. The results showed differences in the frequency of communication across categories for map characteristics but not for map orientations or tasks. A difference in the proportion of communications between pilot and navigator occurred when crew were lost. Pilots communicated more than navigators when crews were lost and the reverse was true when crews were not lost. The results support and extend findings from a distance error performance analysis performed on the same flight missions.

Delzell, Susanne↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
NASA NTRS1986

Error propagation in a digital avionic processor: A simulation-based study

An experimental analysis to study error propagation from the gate to the chip level is described. The target system is the CPU in the Bendix BDX-930, an avionic miniprocessor. Error activity data for the study was collected via a gate-level simulation. A family of distributions to characterize the error propagation, both within the chip and at the pins, was then generated. Based on these distributions, measures of error propagation and severity were defined. The analysis quantifies the dependency of the measured error propagation on the location of the fault and the type of instruction/microinstruction executed.

Lomelino, D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating E. coli genome‐scale metabolic model accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data

Abstract The Escherichia coli genome‐scale metabolic model (GEM) is an exemplar systems biology model for the simulation of cellular metabolism. Experimental validation of model predictions is essential to pinpoint uncertainty and ensure continued development of accurate models. Here, we quantified the accuracy of four subsequent E. coli GEMs using published mutant fitness data across thousands of genes and 25 different carbon sources. This evaluation demonstrated the utility of the area under a precision–recall curve relative to alternative accuracy metrics. An analysis of errors in the latest (iML1515) model identified several vitamins/cofactors that are likely available to mutants despite being absent from the experimental growth medium and highlighted isoenzyme gene‐protein‐reaction mapping as a key source of inaccurate predictions. A machine learning approach further identified metabolic fluxes through hydrogen ion exchange and specific central metabolism branch points as important determinants of model accuracy. This work outlines improved practices for the assessment of GEM accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data and highlights promising areas for future model refinement in E. coli and beyond.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment. Observing Years: 2007-2009

NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law.

Abercromby, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Analysis of Gravity-Field Estimation Based on Intersatellite Dual-1-Way Biased Ranging

The GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission is designed to make global, highly accurate measurements of the Earth's gravity field with high spatial resolution. Ancillary GPS occultation measurements are also to be carried out for atmospheric monitoring. In the dual-1-way biased ranging of this mission, the range between two satellites separated by 100 to 200 km in nearly polar, coplanar, circular orbits, is measured to very high precision, to within an additive constant, through the exchange of K- and Ka-band sinusoidal signals. Such biased ranging data, along with GPS L-band range and phase data, can be processed and fit over successive multiday intervals to obtain accurate estimates of the Earth's gravity field. This report approximately models and analyzes this process, from the generation of the RF signals at the two satellites through the extraction of the geopotential. The steps include generation of the transmitted signals, processing the received signals to extract high-rate baseband phase, carrying out a dual-1-way combination of baseband phase to extract high-rate biased range for each band, combining K- and Ka-band ranges to correct for the ionosphere effect, and processing the resulting high-rate biased range values to extract three types of reduced-rate observables: biased range, range rate and range acceleration. The version of dual-1-way biased ranging developed by this report improves upon previous versions in a number of ways: highly accurate satellite-timetag corrections derived from concurrent GPS data, better baseband phase extraction using highly digital processing, highly accurate USO-rate calibration derived from concurrent GPS data, an improved method for extracting high-rate biased range from baseband phase, improved filtering for extracting reduced- rate observables from high-rate biased range, and parallel extraction of three observable types.

SINUSOIDAL SIGNALS↗