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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

High-resolution source imaging and moment tensor estimation of acoustic emissions during brittle creep of basalt undergoing carbonation

SUMMARY As the high-frequency analogue to field-scale earthquakes, acoustic emissions (AEs) provide a valuable complement to study rock deformation mechanisms. During the load-stepping creep experiments with CO2-saturated water injection into a basaltic sample from Carbfix site in Iceland, 8791 AE events are detected by at least one of the seven piezoelectric sensors. Here, we apply a cross-correlation-based source imaging method, called geometric-mean reverse-time migration (GmRTM) to locate those AE events. Besides the attractive picking-free feature shared with other waveform-based methods (e.g. time-reversal imaging), GmRTM is advantageous in generating high-resolution source images with reduced imaging artefacts, especially for experiments with relatively sparse receivers. In general, the imaged AE locations are found to be scattered across the sample, suggesting a complicated fracture network rather than a well-defined major shear fracture plane, in agreement with X-ray computed tomography imaging results after retrieval of samples from the deformation apparatus. Clustering the events in space and time using the nearest-neighbour approach revealed a group of ‘repeaters’, which are spatially co-located over an elongated period of time and likely indicate crack, or shear band growth. Furthermore, we select 2196 AE events with high signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) and conduct moment tensor estimation using the adjoint (backpropagated) strain tensor fields at the locations of AE sources. The resulting AE locations and focal mechanisms support our previously assertion that creep of basalt at the experimental conditions is accommodated dominantly by distributed microcracking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Heterogeneous mantle effects on the behavior of SmKS waves and outermost core imaging

Seismic traveltime anomalies of waves that traverse the uppermost 100–200 km of the outer core have been interpreted as evidence of reduced seismic velocities (relative to radial reference models) just below the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These studies typically investigate differential traveltimes of SmKS waves, which propagate as P waves through the shallowest outer core and reflect from the underside of the CMB m times. The use of SmKS and S(m-1)KS differential traveltimes for core imaging are often assumed to suppress contributions from earthquake location errors and unknown and unmodelled seismic velocity heterogeneity in the mantle. The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which differential SmKS traveltimes are, in fact, affected by anomalous mantle structure, potentially including both velocity heterogeneity and anisotropy. Velocity variations affect not only a wave's traveltime, but also the path of a wave, which can be observed in deviations of the wave's incoming direction. Since radial velocity variations in the outer core will only minimally affect the wave path, in contrast to other potential effects, measuring the incoming direction of SmKS waves provides an additional diagnostic as to the origin of traveltime anomalies. Here we use arrays of seismometers to measure traveltime and direction anomalies of SmKS waves that sample the uppermost outer core. We form subarrays of EarthScope's regional Transportable Array stations, thus measuring local variations in traveltime and direction. We observe systematic lateral variations in both traveltime and incoming wave direction, which cannot be explained by changes to the radial seismic velocity profile of the outer core. Moreover, we find a correlation between incoming wave direction and traveltime anomaly, suggesting that observed traveltime anomalies may be caused, at least in part, by changes to the wave path and not solely by perturbations in outer core velocity. Modelling of 1-D ray and 3-D wave propagation in global 3-D tomographic models of mantle velocity anomalies match the trend of the observed traveltime anomalies. Overall, we demonstrate that observed SmKS traveltime anomalies may have a significant contribution from 3-D mantle structure, and not solely from outer core structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification

We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic imaging of the Ecuadorian forearc and arc from joint ambient noise, local, and teleseismic tomography: catching the Nazca slab in the act of flattening

SUMMARY The Ecuadorian Andes are a complex region characterized by accreted oceanic terranes driven by the ongoing subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath South America. Present-day tectonics in Ecuador are linked to the downgoing plate geometry featuring the subduction of the aseismic, oceanic Carnegie Ridge, which is currently entering the trench. Using seismic tomography, we jointly invert arrival times of P and S waves from local and teleseismic earthquakes with surface wave dispersion curves to image the structure of the forearc and magmatic arc of the Ecuadorian Andes. Our data set includes > 100 000 traveltimes recorded at 294 stations across Ecuador. Our images show the basement of the central forearc is composed of accreted oceanic terranes with high elastic wave speeds. Inboard of the Carnegie Ridge, the westernmost forearc and coastal cordilleras display relatively low Vp and Vs and high Vp/Vs values, which we attribute to the increased hydration and fracturing of the overriding plate due to the subduction of the thick oceanic crust of the Carnegie Ridge. We additionally image across-arc differences in magmatic architecture. The frontal volcanic arc overlies accreted terranes and is characterized by low velocities and high Vp/Vs indicative of partial melt reservoirs which are limited to the upper crust. In contrast, the main arc displays regions of partial melt across a wider range of depths. The Subandean zone of Ecuador has two active volcanoes built on continental crust suggesting the arc is expanding eastwards. The mid to lower crust does not show indications of being modified from the magmatic process. We infer that the slab is in the process of flattening as a consequence of early-stage subduction of the buoyant Carnegie Ridge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Universality class for loopless invasion percolation models and a percolation avalanche burst model for hydraulic fracturing

Invasion percolation is a model that was originally proposed to describe growing networks of fractures. In this work, we describe a loopless algorithm on random lattices, coupled with an avalanche-based model for bursts. The model reproduces the characteristic b-value seismicity and spatial distribution of bursts consistent with earthquakes resulting from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). We test models for both site invasion percolation and bond invasion percolation. These have differences on the scale of site and bond lengths l. But since the networks are characterized by their large-scale behavior, l << L, we find small differences between scaling exponents. Though data may not differentiate between models, our results suggest that both models belong to different universality classes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multiphase flow and granular mechanics

In this perspective we provide a brief overview of the state of knowledge and recent progress in the area of multiphase flow through deformable granular media. We show, with many examples, that the interplay between viscous, capillary, and frictional forces at the pore scale determines the mode of fluid invasion. We pay particular attention to the central role of wettability on the morphology of granular-pack deformation and failure. Beyond their intrinsic interest as processes that give rise to spectacular pattern formation, these coupled phenomena in granular media can control continental-scale fluxes like methane venting from the seafloor and geohazards like earthquakes and landslides. Finally, we conclude this perspective by pointing to fundamental knowledge gaps and exciting avenues of research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Constrained Invasion Percolation Model: Growth via Leath Bursts and the Origin of Seismic b-Value

Here, we analyze a new model for growing networks, the constrained Leath invasion percolation model. Cluster dynamics are characterized by bursts in space and time. The model quantitatively reproduces the observed frequency-magnitude scaling of earthquakes in the limit that the occupation probability approaches the critical bond percolation probability in $\textit{d}$ = 2 . The model may have application to other systems characterized by burst dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Introducing SpaceNet 9 - Cross-Modal Satellite Imagery Registration for Natural Disaster Responses

Computer vision algorithms are increasingly leveraged to accelerate geospatial analysis for disaster response and recovery. As the diversity of remote sensing imagery grows with optical, SAR, and other modalities, a perquisite for analytics is cross-modal image registration. There is a high potential to harness computer vision for this pre-processing requirement toward enabling downstream analytics such as heterogeneous change detection, automated feature extraction, and data fusion. Advancement in these areas has the potential to simplify data wrangling tasks and further accelerate disaster response timelines. The SpaceNet 9 challenge (launching in mid-2024) focuses on addressing the cross-modal image registration problem and demonstrating the utility of such modules on earthquake impacted scenarios. This paper describes the motivation for the SpaceNet 9 and provides a first overview of the dataset, the baseline algorithm, and implications for seeking cross-modal image registration in Earth observation. Code is available at https://github.com/SpaceNetChallenge/SpaceNet9.

Hansch, Ronny↗

Dynamic Restoration Strategy for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

In electric power distribution systems, distributed energy resources (DERs) can act as controllable power sources and support utility operators to minimize power outages after extreme weather events (e.g., hurricane, earthquake, wildfire) and thus help enhance the grid's resilience. Meanwhile, the influences of extreme events and the capabilities of DERs are dynamic and difficult to predict. Hence, the desired distribution system restoration strategy should be able to evolve according to real-time fault/dis-turbance information and the availability of DERs. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic restoration strategy for distribution systems to enhance system resilience against potential hazards. An efficient reconfiguration algorithm is developed to eliminate the use of integer variables to relieve the computational burden. Model predictive control is implemented to adjust the system topology and DER operation set points based on the updated fault information and DER forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed restoration model in enhancing distribution system resilience is validated through an IEEE 123-bus test system. Simulation results also validate that the proposed restoration model can mitigate the occurrence of unexpected events and the fluctuations of DERs.

distributed energy resources (DERs)↗

Characterizing HVDC Transmission Flexibility under Extreme Operating Conditions

System operators rely on system flexibility, traditionally mainly from generation, to handle unexpected reliability and resilience events, ranging from excessive resource forecast errors to extreme events like heatwaves, earthquakes, and cyberattacks. Flexible transmission, such as controllable high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems present an opportunity to increase overall system flexibility to accommodate operational challenges. This paper provides a methodology to study contributions to system flexibility by controllable, power electronics based transmission. The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system is used as an example to study contributions from existing and future HVDC lines. Under extreme system conditions, it is identified that HVDC transmission flexibility can contribute with 24.8 to 28% of avoided unserved energy, and in some areas, the benefits amount to 50 to 70%.

HVDC transmission, PCM, Balancing authorities↗

Data Management in the Continuum: Cross-facility Object-based Data Transfers

Scientific workflows are evolving from relying on a monolithic storage subsystem at a single High-Performance Computing (HPC) facility to using geographically distributed file systems, repositories, and cloud storage. As a result, storing, accessing, transferring, and managing scientific data have become highly complex and prone to performance inefficiencies. This paper delves into these challenges by exploring an optimized end-to-end interface designed to seamlessly connect various local and remote storage systems, enabling efficient data movement of objects across HPC–Cloud and HPC–HPC environments. We showcase this capability through an object-focused data management runtime system, discuss the effects of relaxed consistency semantics in distributed object scenarios, and illustrate its application in an earthquake simulation workflow. Besides reducing the amount of data by selectively transferring regions of interest, our facility-local results achieved a speedup of 45 × over an optimized HDF5 usage and 15 × over the HDF5 with caching by using the new interface in PDC-XF.

Bez, Jean Luca↗

An Experimental Setup for Mechanical Vibration Analysis Using VLC

This study explores the potential applications across various domains, including earthquake detection and warning systems, where the system’s sensitivity to ground vibrations can contribute to early seismic event detection. Additionally, the study paves the way of developing applications of VLC/T in mechanical vibration and stability analysis of engines and platforms, offering insights into structural integrity and performance optimization. These multifaceted applications underscore the adaptability and potential of VLC/T systems in diverse fields, heralding advancements in sensing, communication, and security technologies. To achieve this, in this study, Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) is proposed to represent the impact of mechanical shocks and vibrations generated by several weights dropped onto the platform with which the receiver is fixed. Even though non-contact measurement methodology is preferred for various reasons, the proposed measurement campaign obtains the data in contact form; however, the system and signal model proposed in this study could easily be extended into non-contact form. Considering the fact that the proposed measurement campaign employs off-the-shelf products, it is cost-effective and very scalable.

Yilmaz, Ahmet Mucahit↗

Resilience Evaluation and Enhancement for Island City Integrated Energy Systems

Extreme natural hazards, such as hurricanes or earthquakes, have a high probability of threatening energy supply security and causing high-order contingencies to island city-integrated energy systems (IC-IESs). To better evaluate and enhance resilience, a novel approach is proposed in this work for IC-IESs. The resilience of an IC-IES is analyzed from both the system level and the component level. At the system level, the impacts of extreme natural disasters are quantified. At the component level, the importance of individual components is analyzed through pre-failure and post-failure indices. The pre-failure index identifies the system’s weak links before an energy interruption, and the post-failure index determines the optimal repair strategy to restore the service. The proposed indices are solved by the impact increment method (IIM), which significantly improves computational efficiency without much affecting result accuracy. Numerical simulation studies are conducted on the modified Barry Island IES and IES E123-G48-H32 test systems. Furthermore, the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Surface Deformation and Seismicity Linked to Fluid Injection in the Raton Basin

Abstract It is suggested that in addition to seismicity deep fluid injection may cause surface uplift and subsidence in oil and gas‐producing regions. This study uses the Raton Basin as an example to investigate the hydromechanical processes of surface uplift and subsidence during wastewater injection. The Raton Basin, in southern central Colorado and northern central New Mexico, has experienced wastewater injection related to coalbed methane and gas production starting in 1994. In this study, we estimate the extent and magnitude of total vertical deformation in the Raton Basin from 1994 to 2020 and incremental deformation between the years 2017 to 2020. Results indicate a modeled uplift as much as 15 cm occurring between 1994 and 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, up to 3 cm of uplift occurred, largely near the northwestern injection wells. Most modeled uplift between 1994 and 2020 occurred near the southern wells, where the greatest cumulative volume of wastewater was injected. However, modeled subsidence occurred around the southern and eastern wells between 2017 and 2020, after the rate of injection decreased. Modeling indicates that while the magnitude of modeled uplift corresponds to cumulative injection volume and maximum rate in the long‐term, short‐term incremental deformation (uplift or subsidence) is controlled by changes in the rate of injection. The number of yearly earthquake events follows periods of rapid modeled uplifting throughout the Basin, suggesting that measurable surface deformation may be caused by the same injection‐induced pore pressure perturbations that initiate seismicity.

Geology↗

Unexpected Scaling of Peak Acceleration for a Yielding Mass-Spring System Subjected to a Triangular Base Acceleration Pulse

The use of bounding scenarios is a common practice that greatly simplifies the design and qualification of structures. However, this approach implicitly assumes that the quantities of interest increase monotonically with the input to the structure, which is not necessarily true for nonlinear structures. This paper surveys the literature for observations of nonmonotonic behavior of nonlinear systems and finds such observations in both the earthquake engineering and applied mechanics literature. Numerical simulations of a single degree-of-freedom mass-spring system with an elastic–plastic spring subjected to a triangular base acceleration pulse are then presented, and it is shown that the relative acceleration of this system scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude in some cases. The equation of motion for this system is solved symbolically and an approximate expression for the relative acceleration is developed, which qualitatively agrees with the nonmonotonic behavior seen in the numerical results. The nonmonotonicity is investigated and found to be a result of dynamics excited by the discontinuous derivative of the base acceleration pulse, the magnitude of which scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude due to the fact that the first yield of the spring occurs earlier as the input magnitude is increased. The relevance of this finding within the context of defining bounding scenarios is discussed, and it is recommended that modeling be used to perform a survey of the full range of possible inputs prior to defining bounding scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

THERMAL STRESS ANALYSIS OF A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CANISTER

The potential for chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) in spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters is a current topic of research by the US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program. One of the important prerequisites for CISCC is a tensile residual stress state. This study utilizes computational models to provide an initial analysis of thermal stresses in a generic spent nuclear fuel canister. A STAR-CCM+ thermal fluid model provides a temperature profile analysis of the canister based on four different ambient temperature conditions. An ANSYS APDL finite element model incorporates the temperature profiles to analyze the thermal stresses in the canister. The calculated thermal stress magnitudes are in the range of 10 MPa to 80 MPa, which could be significant for crack propagation through the canister wall. The maximum thermal stress is not a concern for the structural failure of the canister, but it is high enough that it is a significant contribution to the total stress state of the canister wall, which also includes residual stress from fabrication, internal pressure from helium cover gas, and potential transient mechanical loads, such as earthquakes. This paper describes the initial finite element thermal stress analysis that was completed in 2020, reports the initial findings, and identifies areas where model refinement is still needed to complete this work in the future.

Jensen, Ben J.↗