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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Identification and Online Updating of Dynamic Models for Demand Response of an Industrial Air Separation Unit

Demand-response operation of air separation units requires frequent changes in production rate(s), and scheduling calculations must explicitly consider process dynamics to ensure feasibility of the solutions. To this end, scale-bridging models (SBMs) approximate the scheduling-relevant dynamics of a process and its controller in a low-order representation. In contrast to previous works that have employed nonlinear SBMs, this paper proposes linear SBMs, developed using time-series analysis, to facilitate online scheduling computations. Using a year-long industrial dataset, we nd that compact linear SBMs are suitable approximations over typical scheduling horizons, but that their accuracies are unpredictable over time. We introduce a strategy for online updating of the SBMs, based on Kalman ltering schemes for online parameter estimation. The approach greatly improves the accuracy of SBM predictions and will enable the use of linear SBM-based demand-response scheduling in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Web-based wide-area monitoring platform for ringdown and clustering analytics in power systems

This paper introduces an open-source research platform for monitoring the Mexican interconnected power grid, allowing real-time processing and information extraction of the grid’s dynamic condition. Moreover, the platform is a Python-based development that embeds different ringdown and clustering analytics tools. In the case of ringdown analysis, the modal information can be extracted using some of the most known algorithms, i.e., Prony analysis, eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA), and matrix pencil (MP). For clustering analysis, the coherent behaviour of generator and non-generator buses is provided by applying recent state-of-the-art techniques such as affinity propagation, K-means, hierarchical agglomerative clustering, and typicality data analysis. The results of up to 93 PMUs show that this open-source platform suits researchers’ and engineers’ power system dynamic analysis requirements.

Clustering↗

Cyanobacteria dynamically regulate phycobilisome-to-photosystem excitation energy transfer

In cyanobacteria and red algae, the phycobilisome (PBS) absorbs light and transfers its energy to the chlorophylls in photosystems II (PSII) and I (PSI). With the help of target analysis of time-resolved emission spectra measured at room temperature (RT) and at 77 K, we establish a general kinetic scheme for excitation energy transfer (EET) and trapping based upon a PBS-PSII-PSI megacomplex. At RT it is found that in the dark-adapted cells (State II), the terminal emitter of PBS, allophycocyanin APC680, transfers energy to PSII and PSI with equal rates of ≈50 ns −1 , and that spillover from PSII to PSI is present with rate ≈6 ns −1 . At 77 K, upon transition from State I to State II the EET rate from APC680 to PSII is constant, whereas the rate to PSI increases by 67%. This indicates that a structural change in EET distance in the PBS-PSII-PSI megacomplex underlies the state transition.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Progress on Complex Langevin simulations of a finite density matrix model for QCD

We study the Stephanov model, which is an RMT model for QCD at finite density, using the Complex Langevin algorithm. Naive implementation of the algorithm shows convergence towards the phase quenched or quenched theory rather than to intended theory with dynamical quarks. A detailed analysis of this issue and a potential resolution of the failure of this algorithm are discussed. We study the effect of gauge cooling on the Dirac eigenvalue distribution and time evolution of the norm for various cooling norms, which were specifically designed to remove the pathologies of the complex Langevin evolution. The cooling is further supplemented with a shifted representation for the random matrices. Unfortunately, none of these modifications generate a substantial improvement on the complex Langevin evolution and the final results still do not agree with the analytical predictions.

Bloch, Jacques↗

Approximating high-dimensional dynamics by barycentric coordinates with linear programming

The increasing development of novel methods and techniques facilitates the measurement of high-dimensional time series but challenges our ability for accurate modeling and predictions. The use of a general mathematical model requires the inclusion of many parameters, which are difficult to be fitted for relatively short high-dimensional time series observed. Here, we propose a novel method to accurately model a high-dimensional time series. Our method extends the barycentric coordinates to high-dimensional phase space by employing linear programming, and allowing the approximation errors explicitly. The extension helps to produce free-running time-series predictions that preserve typical topological, dynamical, and/or geometric characteristics of the underlying attractors more accurately than the radial basis function model that is widely used. The method can be broadly applied, from helping to improve weather forecasting, to creating electronic instruments that sound more natural, and to comprehensively understanding complex biological data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Characterization of a new ultra-high pressure shock tube facility for combustion and propulsion studies

A new shock tube facility has been designed, constructed, and characterized at the University of Central Florida. This facility is capable of withstanding pressures of up to 1000 atm, allowing for combustion diagnostics of extreme conditions, such as in rocket combustion chambers or in novel power conversion cycles. For studies with toxic gas impurities, the high initial pressures required the development of a gas delivery system to ensure the longevity of the facility and the safety of the personnel. Data acquisition and experimental propagation were implemented with remote access to ensure safety, paired with a LabVIEW- and Python-based user interface. Thus far, test pressures of 270 atm, blast pressures of 730 atm, and temperatures approaching 10 000 K have been achieved. The extreme limitations of this facility allow for emission spectroscopy to be performed during the oxidation of fuel mixtures, e.g., alkanes diluted in argon and carbon dioxide. Ignition delay times were determined and compared to simulations using chemical kinetic mechanisms. The design, experimental procedures, processes of analysis, and uncertainty determination are outlined, and typical pressure profiles are compared with a new gas dynamics solver and empirical correlations developed across multiple shock tube facilities. Preliminary reactive mixture analyses are included with further investigation of the mixtures outlined.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

First observations from the Kr multi-monochromatic x-ray imager for time and spatially resolved diagnosis of hot implosion cores

This paper presents initial findings from the recently deployed Kr multi-monochromatic x-ray imager (Kr MMI) at the Omega laser facility. The experiment focuses on exploring implosion dynamics in exploding pusher capsules at three distinct initial gas fill densities. Utilizing time-gated and spatially integrated measurements, core size, electron temperature (Te), and electron densities (ne) are extracted through the analysis of the spectral region encompassing the Kr He α and its satellite lines. A comprehensive spectral database, incorporating atomic kinetics, spectroscopic-quality radiation transport, and Stark broadened line shapes, has been developed for rigorous data analysis. These measurements underscore the utility of the new Kr MMI instrument, which, combined with sophisticated analysis techniques, enables the diagnosis of plasma conditions at Te>2000 eV, thereby extending the capabilities beyond the prior Ar MMI design. This is an important stepping stone for achieving time-gated and space-resolved diagnostics of electron temperature, electron density, and heat transport in high temperature implosion cores.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reversible motions and disordered structure of soft particles in amorphous solids

In amorphous solids, soft vibrational modes derived from normal mode analysis can be utilized to identify the soft particles that are prone to irreversible rearrangements. However, the normal mode analysis approach cannot explain why the spatial distributions of clustered soft particles do not change over time. We define a softness parameter based on the vibrational density of states calculated directly from molecular dynamics simulations with both the harmonic vibrations and anharmonic relaxations being properly captured at finite temperatures. This parameter spontaneously correlates with the real space atomic motions and the dynamics heterogeneity. Using the softness parameter, we show that the softest particles are confined within rigid cages. These particles keep rearranging reversibly without long-range diffusion. The moderately soft particles rearrange irreversibly, and the hard particles mainly participate in vibrations without rearrangement. Here, we also show that the soft particles form locally disordered structures, while the hard particles present strong ordering. These findings confirm the defective nature of soft particles, and provide insights on the nature of softness as the ability to rearrange, but not necessarily irreversibly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spectral Denoising for Accelerated Analysis of Correlated Ionic Transport

Computation of correlated ionic transport properties from molecular dynamics in the Green-Kubo formalism is expensive, as one cannot rely on the affordable mean square displacement approach. We use spectral decomposition of the short-time ionic displacement covariance to learn a set of diffusion eigenmodes that encode the correlation structure and form a basis for analyzing the ionic trajectories. This allows systematic reduction of the uncertainty and accelerate computations of ionic conductivity in systems with a steady-state correlation structure. We provide mathematical and numerical proofs of the method’s robustness and demonstrate it on realistic electrolyte materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

An Open Source Modeling Framework for Interdependent Energy-Transportation-Communication Infrastructure in Smart and Connected Communities

Infrastructure in future smart and connected communities is envisioned as an aggregate of public services, including energy, transportation, and communication systems, all intertwined with each other. The intrinsic interdependency among these systems may exert the underlying influence on both design and operation of the heterogeneous infrastructures. Yet, few prior studies have tapped into the interdependency among these systems in order to quantify their potential impacts during standard operation. In response to this, this paper proposes an open-source, flexible, integrated modeling framework suitable for designing coupled energy, transportation, and communication systems and for assessing the impact of their interdependencies. First, a novel multi-level, multi-layer, multi-agent approach is proposed to enable flexible modeling of the interconnected systems. Then, for the framework's proof of concept, preliminary component and system-level models for different systems are designed and implemented using Modelica, an equation-based object-oriented modeling language. Finally, three case studies of gradually increasing complexity are presented (energy, energy + transportation, and energy + transportation + communication) to evaluate the interdependencies among the three systems. Quantitative analyses show that the deviation of the average velocity on the road can be 10.5% and the deviation of the power drawn from the grid can be 7% with or without considering the transportation and communication system at the peak commute time, indicating the presence of notable interdependencies. The proposed modeling framework also has the potential to be further extended for various modeling purposes and use cases, such as dynamic modeling and optimization, resilience analysis, and integrated decision making in future connected communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estimating Spatial Distribution Impacts of Rooftops Solar PV on Dynamic Hosting Capacity Evaluation for a Real Distribution Feeder

This paper models the sensitivity of dynamic hosting capacity analysis to the spatial distribution of distributed PV scenarios, random, close and far from substation deployments, at various penetration levels on a real distribution feeder, in a quasi-static time series (QSTS) power flow simulation using high resolution time-aware metrics. These spatial distribution scenarios were chosen to capture a wide range of potential operation impacts of these deployments using a set of thermaland voltage-based metrics such as instantaneous violations and moving averages for both thermal and voltage constraints. This study uses actual load and PV data up-scaled from 1-hour time step to 1-minute resolution to fully characterize the interaction between the daily changes in load and PV output, and their impacts on distribution system operations.

distribution system↗

Unsteady Adjoint of Pressure Loss for a Fundamental Transonic Turbine Vane

High-fidelity simulations, e.g., large eddy simulation (LES), are often needed for accurately predicting pressure losses due to wake mixing and boundary layer development in turbomachinery applications. An unsteady adjoint of high-fidelity simulations is useful for design optimization in such aerodynamic applications. In this paper, we present unsteady adjoint solutions using a large eddy simulation model for an inlet guide vane from von Karman Institute (VKI) using aerothermal objectives. The unsteady adjoint method is effective in capturing the gradient for a short time interval aerothermal objective, whereas the method provides diverging gradients for long time-averaged thermal objectives. As the boundary layer on the suction side near the trailing edge of the vane is turbulent, it poses a challenge for the adjoint solver. The chaotic dynamics cause the adjoint solution to diverge exponentially from the trailing edge region when solved backward in time. This results in the corruption of the sensitivities obtained from the adjoint solutions. An energy analysis of the unsteady compressible Navier–Stokes adjoint equations indicates that adding artificial viscosity to the adjoint equations can dissipate the adjoint energy while potentially maintaining the accuracy of the adjoint sensitivities. Analyzing the growth term of the adjoint energy provides a metric for identifying the regions in the flow where the adjoint term is diverging. Results for the vane obtained from simulations performed on the Titan supercomputer are demonstrated.

Engineering↗

Investigation into the instantaneous centre of rotation for enhanced design of floating offshore wind turbines

The dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) involves complex interactions of multivariate loads from wind, waves, and currents, which result in complex motion characteristics. Although methods for analysing global motion responses are well-established, the time- and location-dependent kinematics remain underexplored. This paper investigates the instantaneous centre of rotation (ICR), a point of zero velocity at a time instance of general plane motion. Understanding and strategically positioning the ICR can reduce the dynamic motion in critical structural locations, enhancing the performance and structural robustness of FOWTs. The paper presents a method for computing the ICR using time-domain simulation results and proposes a statistical analysis approach suitable for design studies. Building on prior research, it examines the sensitivity of the ICR to external loading and design features, providing insights into how these factors influence motion response and how the motion response influences the statistics of the ICR, structural loads, and other performance metrics of interest. The study explores two FOWT configurations, a spar and a semisubmersible, identifying design variables that most effectively control the ICR statistics and identifying the ICR statistics most correlated with the responses of interest. Finally, through two case studies, we demonstrate how to apply these new insights in a practical design scenario. By adjusting the design variables most correlated with the ICR (fairlead vertical position and centre of mass for the spar and mooring line length and offset column diameter for the semisubmersible), we successfully modified the designs of the floating support structures to reduce the loads in the mooring lines, tower base, and blade roots, improving the ultimate strength and fatigue characteristics compared to the original designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Pixelated CZT Technology for the Detection, Identification, and Localization of Gamma-Ray Sources - 18311

Radioactive waste-management applications require good measurements to qualitatively and quantitatively characterize waste materials. Often these measurements must be done in situ, and the user wishes to learn something of the isotopic and spatial distribution of the source. Therefore, there is a need for a portable instrument that can map radioactive contamination and quantify sources. This presentation introduces several instruments that have been applied to this task, along with example measurements in relevant applications. All instruments are based on 3D-position-sensitive CdZnTe (CZT) detectors. This technology routinely achieves better than 1.1% FWHM energy resolution at 662 keV and operates at room temperature with a startup time under 2 minutes. All are packaged in portable enclosures with WiFi and Bluetooth capabilities for wireless communication. These capabilities allow the technology to be used in more advanced measurements in the field. A unique capability of these detectors is the ability to image the spatial distribution of gamma rays from a single stationary measurement. The first product, Polaris-H, has been in use at commercial nuclear power plants since 2013. The system, currently used at over 50% of the US nuclear-power fleet, integrates a 3D-position-sensitive CZT detector, associated readout electronics, an embedded computer, a battery with over 7-hour life, an optical camera, and a laser range finder in a portable water-proof enclosure. The system connects wirelessly to a tablet which displays a gamma-ray spectrum and isotope-specific images of the gamma-ray distribution in all directions in real time. The CZT detectors have a dynamic range from 50 keV up to 3 MeV. Coded aperture or pinhole imaging is used for energies below 250 keV, and Compton imaging is used for energies above 250 keV. List-mode data is saved to an external USB memory stick to enable more advanced analysis, including isotopic activity analysis, via H3D's post-processing software. Additional systems based on the same architecture have been developed to optimize the technology for other applications. These include Polaris-H Quad, which provides over 3 times the sensitivity for applications involving weaker sources, and Polaris-H Shield, which uses a collimator to provide images and isotope information over a narrower field of view in order to measure weaker sources in the presence of stronger sources of the same isotope. H3D has also developed custom systems that have been mounted on robots and drones that enable remote operation of the technology. Results from the measurements collected at commercial nuclear power plants and other applicable sites will be presented to show how these instruments can be used to detect, identify, and localize gamma-ray sources. Advanced analysis techniques to show the accurate quantification of the gamma-ray source will also be presented. Applications range from characterizing simple objects, to locating hottest points, estimating contamination distributions on an isotope-by-isotope basis, and differentiating scatter and direct emissions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Surrogate Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems: A Comparative Study

Surrogate models play a vital role in overcoming the computational challenge in designing and analyzing nonlinear dynamic systems, especially in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a comparative study of different surrogate modeling techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems. Four surrogate modeling methods, namely, Gaussian process (GP) regression, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with LSTM (CNN-LSTM), and a CNN with bidirectional LSTM (CNN-BLSTM), are studied and compared. All these model types can predict the future behavior of dynamic systems over long periods based on training data from relatively short periods. The multi-dimensional inputs of surrogate models are organized in a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) scheme to enable recursive prediction over long periods, where current predictions replace inputs from the previous time window. Three numerical examples, including one mathematical example and two nonlinear engineering analysis models, are used to compare the performance of the four surrogate modeling techniques. The results show that the GP-NARX surrogate model tends to have more stable performance than the other three deep learning (DL)-based methods for the three particular examples studied. The tuning effort of GP-NARX is also much lower than its deep learning-based counterparts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coherence Spectroscopy in the Condensed Phase: Insights into Molecular Structure, Environment, and Interactions

The role of coherences, or coherently excited superposition states, in complex condensed-phase systems has been the topic of intense interest and debate for a number of years. In many cases, coherences have been utilized as spectators of ultrafast dynamics or for identifying couplings between electronic states. In rare cases, they have been found to drive excited state dynamics directly. Interestingly though, the utilization of coherences as a tool for high-detail vibronic spectroscopy has largely been overlooked until recently, despite their encoding of key information regarding molecular structure, electronically sensitive vibrational modes, and intermolecular interactions. Furthermore, their detection in the time domain makes for a highly comprehensive spectroscopic technique wherein the phase and dephasing times are extracted in addition to amplitude and intensity, an element not afforded in analogous frequency domain “steady-state” measurements. However, practical limitations arise in disentangling the large number of coherent signals typically accessed in broadband nonlinear spectroscopic experiments, often complicating assignment of the origin and type of coherences generated. Two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy (2DES) affords an avenue by which to disperse and decompose the large number of coherent signals generated in nonlinear experiments, facilitating the assignment of various types of quantum coherences. 2DES takes advantage of the broad bandwidth necessary for achieving the high time resolution desired for ultrafast dynamics and coherence generation by resolving the excitation axis to detect all excitation channels independently. This feature is beneficial for following population dynamics such as electronic energy transfer, and 2DES has become the choice method for such studies. Simultaneously, coherences arise as oscillations at well-defined coordinates across the 2D map often atop those evolving population signals. By isolating the coherent contribution to the 2DES data and Fourier transforming along the population time, a 3D spectral representation of the coherent 2D data is generated, and coherences are then ordered by their oscillation frequency, ν2. Individual coherences can then be selected by their frequency and evaluated via their distinct “2D coherence” spectra, yielding a significantly more distinctive set of spectroscopic signatures over other 1D methodologies and single-point 2DES analysis. Given that coherences of different origin result in unique 2D coherence spectra, these characteristics can be catalogued and compared directly against experiment for prompt assignment, a strategy not afforded by traditional 2DES analysis. In this Account, a structure-driven time-independent spectral model is discussed and employed to compare the 2D fingerprints of various coherences to experimental 2D coherence spectra. The frequency-domain approach can easily integrate ab initio derived vibronic parameters, and its correspondence with experimental coherence spectra of a model compound is demonstrated. Several examples and applications are discussed herein, from 2D Franck–Condon analysis of a model compound, to identifying the signatures of interpigment vibronic coupling in a photosynthetic light-harvesting complex. The 3D spectral approach to 2DES provides remarkable spectroscopic detail, in turn leading to new insights in molecular structure and interactions, which complement the time-resolved dynamics simultaneously recorded. The approach presented herein has the potential to distill down the convoluted set of nonlinear signals appearing in 2D coherent spectra, making the technique more amenable to high-detail vibronic spectroscopy in inherently complex condensed phase systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗