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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations

This paper presents a deep-learning framework, Multi-load Generative Adversarial Network (MultiLoad-GAN), for generating a group of synthetic load profiles (SLPs) simultaneously. The main contribution of MultiLoad-GAN is the capture of spatial-temporal correlations among a group of loads that are served by the same distribution transformer. This enables the generation of a large amount of correlated SLPs required for microgrid and distribution system studies. Here, the novelty and uniqueness of the MultiLoad-GAN framework are three-fold. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for generating a group of load profiles bearing realistic spatial- temporal correlations simultaneously. Second, two complementary realisticness metrics for evaluating generated load profiles are developed: computing statistics based on domain knowledge and comparing high-level features via a deep-learning classifier. Third, to tackle data scarcity, a novel iterative data augmentation mechanism is developed to generate training samples for enhancing the training of both the classifier and the MultiLoad-GAN model. Simulation results show that MultiLoad- GAN can generate more realistic load profiles than existing approaches, especially in group level characteristics. With little finetuning, MultiLoad-GAN can be readily extended to generate a group of load or PV profiles for a feeder or a service area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of distributed gas cooling of pressurized PAFC for utility power generation

Two short stacks were pressure tested at 446 kPa (4.4 atm.) and the pressure gains were more than the theoretically predicted gains. Temperature profiles were observed to be independent of operating pressure. The pressure drop was found to be inversely proportional to operating pressure as expected. Continuous pressurized operation of a stack for 1000 hours verified the compatability of the fuel cell component design. A simple pressurization procedure was also developed. Six separate designs, covering two gas cooling schemes (DIGAS and separated) and two cooling channel geometries (straight through and treed), were analysed on the net voltage output basis. Separated cooling with 5 cells per cooler was recognized to be the best among the designs considered.

Farooque, M.↗

Mixed-Fidelity Approach for Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft

This paper documents a mixed-fidelity approach for the design of low-boom supersonic aircraft with a focus on fuselage shaping.A low-boom configuration that is based on low-fidelity analysis is used as the baseline. The fuselage shape is modified iteratively to obtain a configuration with an equivalent-area distribution derived from computational fluid dynamics analysis that attempts to match a predetermined low-boom target area distribution and also yields a low-boom ground signature. The ground signature of the final configuration is calculated by using a state-of-the-art computational-fluid-dynamics-based boom analysis method that generates accurate midfield pressure distributions for propagation to the ground with ray tracing. The ground signature that is propagated from a midfield pressure distribution has a shaped ramp front, which is similar to the ground signature that is propagated from the computational fluid dynamics equivalent-area distribution. This result supports the validity of low-boom supersonic configuration design by matching a low-boom equivalent-area target, which is easier to accomplish than matching a low-boom midfield pressure target.

Li, Wu↗

The Effect of Solid Constituent Particle Size Distributions on TP-H1148 Propellant Slag

Special aluminum and ammonium perchlorate (AP) particle size distributions were prepared for a matrix of five-inch diameter, center-perforated (CP) motor tests to measure the aluminum oxide slag response in Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) propellant. Previous tests of TP-H1148 propellant in five-inch CP spin motors have shown a correlation between aluminum particle size and generated slag. The motors for this study were cast from thirteen five-gallon propellant mixes which used five particle size levels of aluminum powder, five of unground AP and three of ground AP. Aluminum had the greatest effect on slag formation, the more coarse fractions causing greater slag quantities and larger slag particles. Unground AP had about half the effect of aluminum with the coarser fractions again producing more and larger sized slag particles. The variation in ground AP did not have a significant effect on slag formation. Quench bomb tests showed the same trends as the spin motors, that is, larger aluminum and AP particle size distributions generated larger slag particles leaving the propellant surface. Cured propellant mechanical properties were also impacted by particle size variation.

May, Douglas H.↗

NASA's Next Generation Space Geodesy Network

NASA's Space Geodesy Project (SGP) is developing a prototype core site for a next generation Space Geodetic Network (SGN). Each of the sites in this planned network co-locate current state-of-the-art stations from all four space geodetic observing systems, GNSS, SLR, VLBI, and DORIS, with the goal of achieving modern requirements for the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). In particular, the driving ITRF requirements for this network are 1.0 mm in accuracy and 0.1 mm/yr in stability, a factor of 10-20 beyond current capabilities. Development of the prototype core site, located at NASA's Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory at the Goddard Space Flight Center, started in 2011 and will be completed by the end of 2013. In January 2012, two operational GNSS stations, GODS and GOON, were established at the prototype site within 100 m of each other. Both stations are being proposed for inclusion into the IGS network. In addition, work is underway for the inclusion of next generation SLR and VLBI stations along with a modern DORIS station. An automated survey system is being developed to measure inter-technique vectorties, and network design studies are being performed to define the appropriate number and distribution of these next generation space geodetic core sites that are required to achieve the driving ITRF requirements. We present the status of this prototype next generation space geodetic core site, results from the analysis of data from the established geodetic stations, and results from the ongoing network design studies.

Desai, S. D.↗

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Distribution system fault/failure has a direct impact on customers. Distribution systems are not designed with the contingency of one or more elements failing as the transmission system, however, distribution systems are more likely to have faults in comparison to transmission and generation systems. Most of the distribution systems have a radial design with the protection system assumption of unidirectional power flow. The radial design results in the disconnection of customers for any given component failure. The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources conflicts with the assumption of unidirectional power flow. To maintain/improve the distribution system fault tolerance for a grid with high penetration of distributed energy resources requires improvement. Blockchain can add value to improve fault-tolerant grid operations. That can be achieved using blockchain’s core features of distributed consensus-based decision-making process and immutability. In the process of preparing for an event or system restoration, there is a need for reliable data and system situational awareness. The system situational awareness enables accurate planning for possible scenarios and system restoration after an event, an area where blockchain’s distributed architecture can help. The value of blockchain for a fault-tolerant grid operation is elaborated with three use cases: 1) fault location, isolation, and service restoration; 2) topology identification; and 3) data configuration. These use cases demonstrate how blockchain-based architecture can facilitate bridging the vulnerabilities of the existing implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Materials genome innovation for computational software (magics) center

Functional layered material (LM) architectures will dominate nanomaterials science in this century. We have developed theory, modeling, simulation, and software and data tools that enhance understanding and AI guide synthesis, enable characterization of complex structures, and improve capabilities in the predictive design and growth of LMs. Research at the Center has focused on: Computational synthesis and characterization: AI guided synthesis and experimental synthesis of stacked LMs with tailored properties via optimized chemical vapor deposition (CVD) growth and liquid-phase exfoliation; study defects, edges, grain boundaries, wrinkling of atomic layers and their effects on chemical, mechanical, electrical, and optical properties. Far-from-equilibrium processes: Joint experimental and simulation based probe of electronic processes with NAQMD and ultrafast X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) and ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) facilities at Stanford. Experimentally validate NAQMD by ultrafast electron diffraction and X-ray spectroscopy studies of structural and excited state dynamics, shape fluctuations, and phonon dynamics. Scalable software: Simulation engines for desktop-to-exascale platforms using low-overhead, linear-scaling QMD algorithms; divide-conquer-recombine NAQMD with electronic excitations; extended-Lagrangian reactive molecular dynamics (RMD), machine learning (ML) based neural-network quantum molecular dynamics (NNQMD), and super-state accelerated molecular dynamics (AMD) and kinetic Monte Carlo codes; thermal and electrical transport software; and design 3D architectures of LMs with desired functionality using scalable software. Distribution of software and data, and training: Software and simulation-experimental data generated within the Center are distributed to the materials science community via Berkeley Materials Project (MP) framework. We have also organized three workshops for software distribution and training at USC (Nov. 2017, Mar. 2018) and Gaithersburg, MD (Nov. 2018) to train researchers, with the last one in focused on underrepresented groups, in collaboration with Howard University which is one of the largest HBCUs. The Center supported a total of 46 personnel and 6 undergraduate students. These include 14 faculty, 11 postdoctoral research associates, 20 graduate research assistants, and mentored 6 undergraduate students. This resulted in the publications of 63 research papers that include 46 publications on Reactive and Quantum Dynamics Simulations, 13 publications on Machine Learning for Quantum Materials, and 4 publications on Quantum Computing.

2D Materials↗

Estimating the value of jointly optimized electric power generation and end use: a study of ISO-scale load shaping applied to the residential building stock

A generation-to-load simulation estimated the impact, in terms of production costs and CO2 emissions, attributable to the joint optimization of electric power generation and flexible end uses to support increasing penetrations of renewable energy. Newly conceived, evaluated, and foundational in developing a U.S. National Standard was a transaction-less yet continuous demand response system based on a day-ahead optimum load shape (OLS) designed to encourage Internet-connected devices to autonomously and voluntarily explore options to favour lowest cost generators - without requiring two-way communications, personally identifiable information, or customer opt-in. Boundary conditions used for model calibration included historical weather, residential building stock construction attributes, home appliance and device empirical operating schedules, prototypical power distribution feeder models, thermal generator heat rates, startup and ramping constraints, and fuel costs. Results of an hourly-based annual case study of Texas indicate a 1/3 reduction in production costs and a 1/5 reduction in CO2 emissions are possible.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Size-velocity distribution of large ejecta fragments

The characteristics of three primary extraterrestrial craters and the associated craters were examined to generate a size-velocity distribution for large ejecta fragments. The lunar craters Copernicus and Aristillus and the Martian crater Dv on Olympus Mons were used. Attention was focused on the radial distances between the primary and secondary crater centers and the diameters of the secondaries. The primary craters selected are all relatively young, which avoided contamination of the data from secondaries from other primaries. Attempts were made to account for the speed of the hypervelocity impacts and the elemental compositions of the impactors. An apparent velocity cutoff of about 1 km/sec was observed for the secondaries, which implies that no meteoroid impacts can accelerate ejecta to escape velocities from the moon or Mars.

Vickery, A. M.↗

Using Parameter Sweep in WaterTAP to Analyze New Water Treatment Technologies

We describe a powerful and generalized parameter sweep tool in this report that was originally developed to analyze the performance of existing and novel water treatment models being developed in WaterTAP. Since WaterTAP is built upon IDAES and Pyomo, the parameter sweep tool can be used to systematically explore and debug the behavior of most Pyomo and IDAES numerical models. In order to enable meaningful analyses, the parameter sweep tool has been designed with the following features: 1) Model flexibility: The parameter sweep tool does not enforce any restrictions on the types of models that can be used with it. As long as a Pyomo model can be solved and the parameter is active and mutable, the tool only needs functions that describe how to run the model, the sweep parameters, and the output quantities of interest. 2) Flexible sampling: The parameter sweep tool has inbuilt functions to generate samples from a random distribution or a multidimensional Euclidean space. Furthermore, the users have to ability to supply samples generated from a tool of their choice. 3) Multiple sweep types: A user can choose from one of 3 types of parameter sweeps depending on their needs. 4) Detailed outputs: Outputs generated by the parameter sweep tool can be stored in detailed H5 file or user-friendly CSV files for post processing. 5) Parallel computing: The parameter sweep supports shared and distributed memory parallel computing to enable the use of high performance computers (HPC) for large-scale analyses. 6) Modular: The parameter sweep tool is self-contained and can easily be integrated within an outer-loop analysis or as desired by the user. 7) Ease of use: The tool is well documented and a simple sweep can be easily executed by following the online documentation in a few lines of code. We demonstrate the use of the parameter sweep tool on a simple water treatment system from the WaterTAP repository and show its parallel scaling performance on an Apple laptop and NREL's Eagle HPC. The parameter sweep tool is actively being used with models currently being developed within WaterTAP and we expect its use to grow beyond it to other IDAES and Pyomo models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning

Distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

Distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline MPC controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning

Distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline MPC controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Protection schemes used in North American microgrids

This study reviewed existing conventional and nonconventional protection schemes for grid-connected and islanded mode operations in North American microgrid projects. The microgrid projects investigated in this study used different types of distributed energy resources (DERs) and integrated hydropower/diesel generators, gas/steam/wind turbines, and photovoltaic systems with energy storage. In this work, conventional protection schemes were defined as those within the IEEE Standard C37.2-2008, whereas nonconventional schemes were those not defined within this standard. The pros and cons of conventional and nonconventional protection schemes were discussed in detail. The overvoltage, undervoltage, and frequency elements were the most common conventional protection schemes applied in microgrid projects in North America. These protection elements were used to detect the islanded conditions and faults that could not be sensed by overcurrent relays because of small fault currents contributed by low-inertia DERs and power-electronic sources. Directional overcurrent elements were used to distinguish between external (grid) and internal (microgrid) faults. Adaptive protection was the most popular nonconventional protection scheme applied to the microgrid projects. In conclusion, different types of DERs and operational modes must be considered in order to address the protection and control challenges of each microgrid and to obtain the best technical and economical solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗