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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Research to Reality -- Challenges and Opportunities in Complex System Design

The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.

Ian Levitt↗

DOE OSTI2024

SMARTER Rules-Based Distributed Deconfliction of ADMS Applications

A conceptual numerical methodology derived from Grid Architecture principles is introduced for deconflicting setpoints issued by multiple advanced distribution management system applications. The methodology applies technical, economic, environmental, and social rules to eliminate non-viable combinations. The concept of temporal equipment controls budgets is introduced to preserve the health of physical assets and avoid equipment damage through repeated controls cycling. The rules are combined with a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select a near-optimal set of deconflicted setpoints using a set of qualitative and quantitative decision criteria selected by the distribution system operator. Numerical results are demonstrated on the IEEE 123-bus test feeder for three competing applications. Three alternative distributed schemes are used to decompose the problem: by topological area, by phase, and fully decentralized. The fully decentralized implementation is shown to yield near-optimal deconfliction results with significantly reduced computational time.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Assessment of Renewable Energy Options at the Sravasti Abbey [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NREL, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term clean energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional clean energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported the Sravasti Abbey in Washington a preliminary assessment of distributed energy technology financial feasibility for their site. The outcome consists of low estimated savings from these technologies due to their already low energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1981

Real time simulation of computer-assisted sequencing of terminal area operations

A simulation was developed to investigate the utilization of computer assisted decision making for the task of sequencing and scheduling aircraft in a high density terminal area. The simulation incorporates a decision methodology termed Constrained Position Shifting. This methodology accounts for aircraft velocity profiles, routes, and weight classes in dynamically sequencing and scheduling arriving aircraft. A sample demonstration of Constrained Position Shifting is presented where six aircraft types (including both light and heavy aircraft) are sequenced to land at Denver's Stapleton International Airport. A graphical display is utilized and Constrained Position Shifting with a maximum shift of four positions (rearward or forward) is compared to first come, first serve with respect to arrival at the runway. The implementation of computer assisted sequencing and scheduling methodologies is investigated. A time based control concept will be required and design considerations for such a system are discussed.

Dear, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Active vision in satellite scene analysis

In earth observation or planetary exploration it is necessary to have more and, more autonomous systems, able to adapt to unpredictable situations. This imposes the use, in artificial systems, of new concepts in cognition, based on the fact that perception should not be separated from recognition and decision making levels. This means that low level signal processing (perception level) should interact with symbolic and high level processing (decision level). This paper is going to describe the new concept of active vision, implemented in Distributed Artificial Intelligence by Dassault Aviation following a 'structuralist' principle. An application to spatial image interpretation is given, oriented toward flexible robotics.

Naillon, Martine↗

NASA NTRS2004

Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

concurrent design↗

NASA NTRS2009

Cooperative Three-Robot System for Traversing Steep Slopes

Teamed Robots for Exploration and Science in Steep Areas (TRESSA) is a system of three autonomous mobile robots that cooperate with each other to enable scientific exploration of steep terrain (slope angles up to 90 ). Originally intended for use in exploring steep slopes on Mars that are not accessible to lone wheeled robots (Mars Exploration Rovers), TRESSA and systems like TRESSA could also be used on Earth for performing rescues on steep slopes and for exploring steep slopes that are too remote or too dangerous to be explored by humans. TRESSA is modeled on safe human climbing of steep slopes, two key features of which are teamwork and safety tethers. Two of the autonomous robots, denoted Anchorbots, remain at the top of a slope; the third robot, denoted the Cliffbot, traverses the slope. The Cliffbot drives over the cliff edge supported by tethers, which are payed out from the Anchorbots (see figure). The Anchorbots autonomously control the tension in the tethers to counter the gravitational force on the Cliffbot. The tethers are payed out and reeled in as needed, keeping the body of the Cliffbot oriented approximately parallel to the local terrain surface and preventing wheel slip by controlling the speed of descent or ascent, thereby enabling the Cliffbot to drive freely up, down, or across the slope. Due to the interactive nature of the three-robot system, the robots must be very tightly coupled. To provide for this tight coupling, the TRESSA software architecture is built on a combination of (1) the multi-robot layered behavior-coordination architecture reported in "An Architecture for Controlling Multiple Robots" (NPO-30345), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 65, and (2) the real-time control architecture reported in "Robot Electronics Architecture" (NPO-41784), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 1 (January 2008), page 28. The combination architecture makes it possible to keep the three robots synchronized and coordinated, to use data from all three robots for decision- making at each step, and to control the physical connections among the robots. In addition, TRESSA (as in prior systems that have utilized this architecture) , incorporates a capability for deterministic response to unanticipated situations from yet another architecture reported in Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing (NPO-43635), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 10 (October 2008), page 40. Tether tension control is a major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA. Tension is measured by force sensors connected to each tether at the Cliffbot. The direction of the tension (both azimuth and elevation) is also measured. The tension controller combines a controller to counter gravitational force and an optional velocity controller that anticipates the motion of the Cliffbot. The gravity controller estimates the slope angle from the inclination of the tethers. This angle and the weight of the Cliffbot determine the total tension needed to counteract the weight of the Cliffbot. The total needed tension is broken into components for each Anchorbot. The difference between this needed tension and the tension measured at the Cliffbot constitutes an error signal that is provided to the gravity controller. The velocity controller computes the tether speed needed to produce the desired motion of the Cliffbot. Another major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA is detection of faults. Each robot in the TRESSA system monitors its own performance and the performance of its teammates in order to detect any system faults and prevent unsafe conditions. At startup, communication links are tested and if any robot is not communicating, the system refuses to execute any motion commands. Prior to motion, the Anchorbots attempt to set tensions in the tethers at optimal levels for counteracting the weight of the Cliffbot; if either Anchorbot fails to reach its optimal tension level within a specified time, it sends message to the other robots and the commanded motion is not executed. If any mechanical error (e.g., stalling of a motor) is detected, the affected robot sends a message triggering stoppage of the current motion. Lastly, messages are passed among the robots at each time step (10 Hz) to share sensor information during operations. If messages from any robot cease for more than an allowable time interval, the other robots detect the communication loss and initiate stoppage.

Stroupe, Ashley↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-35202-DND

On March 20th, 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA, Central American Integration System) issued a joint statement sharing their mutual desire to make Earth observations and remote sensing data and products more readily available to SICA member countries to inform their decision making. Regional capacity building in the use of Earth observations was one of the many opportunities for collaboration highlighted in this joint statement. As an initial capacity building effort, NASA deployed a series of feasibility projects through the DEVELOP Program to engage emerging and transitioning professionals with SICA member state partner agencies. The initial projects in summer 2019 addressed landslides in the Dominican Republic, near-coastal flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador, and environmental challenges to the Mesoamerican Reef off the coast of Belize. Additional projects were planned for fall 2019 with the objective of impacting environmental challenges for the remaining SICA member states. This presentation will summarize the results of projects conducted to date, address the lessons learned in the process of rapid engagement with regional entities, and consider how the partnership may evolve over time.

Kenton Ross↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Verification by Analysis for Autonomous Systems Management Architecture (ASMA)

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) is the top-level of a distributed, hierarchical software control system. VSM is data-driven and will make decisions related to mission, fault, resource management and vehicle control. These attributes combined with a high degree of autonomy make it susceptible to emergent behavior. In order to achieve the high level of confidence needed in this critical system, the VSM team has developed a multifaceted verification strategy employing traditional verification techniques, simulation, model checking, and runtime verification. Individual algorithms are verified using conventional testing and model checking using assume-guarantee contracts. A discrete event-based simulation approach is being developed to verify timelines. This presentation describes an enhancement to the verification approach using analysis to enhance system robustness by detecting and resolving the potential for emergent behavior. The verification by analysis employs a Software in the Loop (SITL) environment with real flight software executing on emulated processors, simulations of vehicle subsystems, flight dynamics, and human inputs. Since the possible input space and configuration data set are too large for exhaustive testing, a Monte Carlo approach is used to cover feasible scenarios, augmented with corner cases and known higher-risk scenarios. A key problem in using Monte Carlo-based system verification is evaluating test results to ensure that system behavior is correct. The presentation describes the approach the VSM team uses to monitor behavior for compliance with predetermined boundaries and to identify anomalous behavior for further analysis. This presentation describes the multi-level systems approach to verification, and the simulation-based layer that covers the feasible state space: 1. Overview of the Gateway VSM 2. Special challenges due to heterogeneous, hierarchical architecture 3. Modeling and simulation environment using flight software and system simulations 4. Developing input sets to ensure state-space coverage 5. Developing model and data configuration sets to ensure model coverage 6. Interpreting results without predetermined outcomes 7. Lessons learned and future work

Verification and Validation↗

NASA NTRS2024

A Computational Framework for Making Early Design Decisions in Deep Space Habitats

The dynamics of systems of systems often involve complex interactions among the individual systems, making the implications of design choices challenging to predict. Design features in such systems may trigger unexpected behaviors or result in large variations in safety, performance or resilience. To provide a means of simulating such systems for aiding in these decisions, we have developed a prototype tool, the control-oriented dynamic computational modeling tool (CDCM). The CDCM provides rapid simulation capabilities to perform trade studies in systems of systems. The general class of systems of systems that we aim to examine involve multiple hazards, damage, cascading consequences, repair and recovery. We especially focus on systems-of-systems that incorporate a health management system (HMS) that can monitor the state of the habitat and make decisions about actions to take. In this paper we describe the features of the CDCM, the architecture we devised for simulation of systems-of-systems, the unique functionalities of this tool, and we provide a demonstration of the capabilities by performing two illustrative examples. We articulate the use of this tool for making early design decisions and demonstrate its use for trade studies that consider a model of a deep space habitat. We also share some experiences and lessons that may be useful for others seeking to address similar problems.

Amir Behjat↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detecting anomalous packets in network transfers: investigations using PCA, autoencoder and isolation forest in TCP

Large-scale scientific workflows rely heavily on high-performance file transfers. These transfers require strict quality parameters such as guaranteed bandwidth, no packet loss or data duplication. To have successful file transfers, methods such as predetermined thresholds and statistical analysis need to be done to determine abnormal patterns. Network administrators routinely monitor and analyze network data for diagnosing and alleviating these, making decisions based on their experience. However, as networks grow and become complex, monitoring large data files and quickly processing them, makes it improbable to identify errors and rectify these. Abnormal file transfers have been classified by simply setting alert thresholds, via tools such as PerfSonar and TCP statistics (Tstat). This paper investigates the feasibility of unsupervised feature extraction methods for identifying network anomaly patterns with three unsupervised classification methods—principal component analysis, autoencoder and isolation forest. Here, we collect file transfer statistics from two experiment sets—synthetic iPerf generated traffic and 1000 Genome workflow runs, with synthetically introduced anomalies. Our results show that while PCA and a simple autoencoder finds it difficult to detect clusters, the tree-variant isolation forest is able to identify anomalous packets by breaking down TCP traces into tree classes early.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization problems governed by systems of PDEs with uncertainties

This paper reviews current theoretical and numerical approaches to optimization problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) that depend on random variables or random fields. Such problems arise in many engineering, science, economics and societal decision-making tasks. This paper focuses on problems in which the governing PDEs are parametrized by the random variables/fields, and the decisions are made at the beginning and are not revised once uncertainty is revealed. Examples of such problems are presented to motivate the topic of this paper, and to illustrate the impact of different ways to model uncertainty in the formulations of the optimization problem and their impact on the solution. A linear–quadratic elliptic optimal control problem is used to provide a detailed discussion of the set-up for the risk-neutral optimization problem formulation, study the existence and characterization of its solution, and survey numerical methods for computing it. Different ways to model uncertainty in the PDE-constrained optimization problem are surveyed in an abstract setting, including risk measures, distributionally robust optimization formulations, probabilistic functions and chance constraints, and stochastic orders. Furthermore, approximation-based optimization approaches and stochastic methods for the solution of the large-scale PDE-constrained optimization problems under uncertainty are described. Some possible future research directions are outlined.

Heinkenschloss, Matthias [Rice Univ., Houston, TX ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Alabama Carbon Storage: Bringing Data to the People

The Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama has proven potential for geologic carbon storage and current interest in the area for large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects is high. Extensive CCS relevant data exist in the records of the Geological Survey of Alabama and State Oil and Gas Board of Alabama, however, most of this data is not publicly available or is scattered in separate databases, file cabinets, and tables in publications. The “Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement” (ACS-DSE) project seeks to accelerate the responsible development of large CCS projects in the Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama and offshore in state waters through a publicly accessible database of geologic carbon storage models and data across the region. The ACS-DSE draws on the over 150 years of geologic research and over 20 years of experience in CCS research to place relevant geologic, geophysical, and infrastructure data on a single web platform. Datasets available will include formation depths and elevations, geologic structures, reservoir properties, digital well logs (LAS files), existing penetrations, and geologic models. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCS related regulatory agencies and other sources of information will be included (for example, Class VI UIC permitting regulations and pipeline regulations). By making these datasets and models available in commonly used formats on a public website, the project will increase transparency in decision making and decrease the data acquisition time for industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS1983

Application of a stochastic snowmelt model for probabilistic decisionmaking

A stochastic form of the snowmelt runoff model that can be used for probabilistic decision-making was developed. The use of probabilistic streamflow predictions instead of single valued deterministic predictions leads to greater accuracy in decisions. While the accuracy of the output function is important in decisionmaking, it is also important to understand the relative importance of the coefficients. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was made for each of the coefficients.

Mccuen, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Holistic Transportation and Energy Modeling

This project advances the development and application of the TEMPO transportation energy systems model to support DOE analysis of evolving mobility futures. Recent work has focused on improving model transparency, performance, and fidelity through a redesigned software architecture and updated technology adoption scenarios aligned with the latest data and assumptions. Ongoing efforts aim to expand TEMPO's ability to assess transportation affordability and consumer decision-making, including vehicle ownership dynamics and distributional impacts across households. These enhancements position TEMPO to better inform policy and R&D decisions by providing more behaviorally realistic and policy-relevant insights into transportation energy use, technology adoption, and system-level outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗