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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative 2026 Update

We provide an update on the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative at the 2026 PV Reliability Workshop. Our latest runs incorporate additional data sources and an integrated analysis pipeline run on our Kestrel HPC cluster. Initial degradation findings suggest that single-axis tracked PV systems exhibit higher performance loss rates than fixed-tilt systems, an increase of 0.5 %/yr, almost double. We discuss multiple methods for identifying stuck tracker rows, which are suspected to be a contributor to the enhanced degradation. Through satellite image detection and data-driven approaches we address the topic of identifying when stuck trackers are occuring and to what extent the problem exists. Preliminary results suggest that the increased performance loss detected for the tracked systems would be consistent with stuck tracker rows affecting on the order of 5% - 10% of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An analysis of file migration in a UNIX supercomputing environment

The super computer center at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) migrates large numbers of files to and from its mass storage system (MSS) because there is insufficient space to store them on the Cray supercomputer's local disks. This paper presents an analysis of file migration data collected over two years. The analysis shows that requests to the MSS are periodic, with one day and one week periods. Read requests to the MSS account for the majority of the periodicity; as write requests are relatively constant over the course of a week. Additionally, reads show a far greater fluctuation than writes over a day and week since reads are driven by human users while writes are machine-driven.

Miller, Ethan L.↗

Clarifications on the "Comparison Between SMOS, VUA, ASCAT, and ECMWF Soil Moisture Products Over Four Watersheds in U.S."

In a recent paper, Leroux et al. compared three satellite soil moisture data sets (SMOS, AMSR-E, and ASCAT) and ECMWF forecast soil moisture data to in situ measurements over four watersheds located in the United States. Their conclusions stated that SMOS soil moisture retrievals represent "an improvement [in RMSE] by a factor of 2-3 compared with the other products" and that the ASCAT soil moisture data are "very noisy and unstable." In this clarification, the analysis of Leroux et al. is repeated using a newer version of the ASCAT data and additional metrics are provided. It is shown that the ASCAT retrievals are skillful, although they show some unexpected behavior during summer for two of the watersheds. It is also noted that the improvement of SMOS by a factor of 2-3 mentioned by Leroux et al. is driven by differences in bias and only applies relative to AMSR-E and the ECWMF data in the now obsolete version investigated by Leroux et al.

Scattering↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Convective flow effects on protein crystal growth

A high-resolution microscopic interferometric setup for the monitoring of protein morphologies has been developed. Growth or dissolution of a crystal can be resolved with a long-term depth resolution of 200 A and a lateral resolution of 2 microns. This capability of simultaneously monitoring the interfacial displacement with high local depth resolution has yielded several novel results. We have found with lysozyme that (1) the normal growth rate is oscillatory, and (2) depending on the impurity content of the solution, the growth step density is either greater or lower at the periphery of a facet than in its center. The repartitioning of Na plus and Cl minus ions between lysozyme solutions and crystals was studied for a wide range of crystallization conditions. A nucleation-growth-repartitioning model was developed, to interpret the large body of data in unified way. The results strongly suggest that (1) the ion to lysozyne ratio in the crystal depends mostly on kinetic rather than crystallographic parameters, and (2) lysozyme crystals possess a salt-rich core with a diameter electron microscopy results appear to confirm this finding, which could have far-reaching consequences for x-ray diffraction studies. A computational model for diffusive-convective transport in protein crystallization has been applied to a realistic growth cell geometry, taking into account the findings of the above repartitioning studies and our kinetics data for the growth of lysozyme. The results show that even in the small cell employed, protein concentration nonuniformities and gravity-driven solutal convection can be significant. The calculated convection velocities are of the same order to magnitude as those found in earlier experiments. As expected, convective transport, i.e., at Og, lysozyme crystal growth remains kinetically limited. The salt distribution in the crystal is predicted to be non-uniform at both 1g and 0g, as a consequence of protein depletion in the solution. Static and dynamic light scattering studies in undersaturated and supersaturated solutions have been performed. Diffusivities in undersaturated solutions, were found to vary with lysozyme concentrations. Depending on the salt concentration, the diffusivities either increase or decrease. Interestingly, the corresponding static scattering intensities behave oppositely, Our current analysis indicates that these changes are inconsistent with aggregation in undersaturated solutions. However, the data are compatible with concentration-dependent changes of the interactions between protein and salt.

Rosenberger, Franz↗

Validation of Proposed Metrics for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Analysis Standards

Abrasion of mechanical components and fabrics by soil on Earth is typically minimized by the effects of atmosphere and water. Potentially abrasive particles lose sharp and pointed geometrical features through erosion. In environments where such erosion does not exist, such as the vacuum of the Moon, particles retain sharp geometries associated with fracturing of their parent particles by micrometeorite impacts. The relationship between hardness of the abrasive and that of the material being abraded is well understood, such that the abrasive ability of a material can be estimated as a function of the ratio of the hardness of the two interacting materials. Knowing the abrasive nature of an environment (abrasive)/construction material is crucial to designing durable equipment for use in such surroundings. The objective of this work was to evaluate a set of standardized metrics proposed for characterizing a surface that has been scratched from a two-body abrasion test. This is achieved by defining a new abrasion region termed Zone of Interaction (ZOI). The ZOI describes the full surface profile of all peaks and valleys, rather than just measuring a scratch width. The ZOI has been found to be at least twice the size of a standard width measurement; in some cases, considerably greater, indicating that at least half of the disturbed surface area would be neglected without this insight. The ZOI is used to calculate a more robust data set of volume measurements that can be used to computationally reconstruct a resultant profile for de tailed analysis. Documenting additional changes to various surface roughness par ameters also allows key material attributes of importance to ultimate design applications to be quantified, such as depth of penetration and final abraded surface roughness. Further - more, by investigating the use of custom scratch tips for specific needs, the usefulness of having an abrasion metric that can measure the displaced volume in this standardized manner, and not just by scratch width alone, is reinforced. This benefit is made apparent when a tip creates an intricate contour having multiple peaks and valleys within a single scratch. The current innovation consists of a software- driven method of quantitatively evaluating a scratch profile. The profile consists of measuring the topographical features of a scratch along the length of the scratch instead of the width at one location. The digitized profile data is then fed into software code, which evaluates enough metrics of the scratch to reproduce the scratch from the evaluated metrics. There are three key differences between the current art and this innovation. First, scratch width does not quantify how far from the center of the scratch damage occurs (ZOI). Second, scratch width does not discern between material displacement and material removal from the scratch. Finally, several scratches may have the same width but different zones of interactions, different displacements, and different material removals. The current innovation allows quantitative assessment of all three.

Street, Kenneth W., Jr.↗

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian inference of anisotropic 2D small-angle scattering from sparse measurement

Here, we present a Bayesian inference framework for reconstructing anisotropic two-dimensional small-angle scattering (2D SAS) patterns from sparse, noisy, or partially missing data. The method combines a symmetry-aware angular basis with radial Gaussian process priors to enable accurate, training-free interpolation and denoising. Computational benchmarks demonstrate reliable recovery of both isotropic and high-order anisotropic features under severe data reduction. Experimental validations on stretched polymers, sheared wormlike micelles, and carbon fibers show improved fidelity and resolution compared to raw measurements, achieving comparable accuracy with up to 50-fold fewer detected neutrons. This approach enables quantitative structural analysis under low-flux, time-limited, or single-shot conditions, extending the applicability of 2D SAS techniques to compact neutron sources and mechanically driven soft matter systems undergoing transient structural changes.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

First measurement of electron neutrino scattering cross section on argon

We report the first electron neutrino cross section measurements on argon, based on data collected by the ArgoNeuT experiment running in the GeV-scale NuMI beamline at Fermilab. A flux-averaged $\nu_e + \overline{\nu}_e$ total and a lepton angle differential cross section are extracted using 13 $\nu_e$ and $\overline{\nu}_e$ events identified with fully-automated selection and reconstruction. We employ electromagnetic-induced shower characterization and analysis tools developed to identify $\nu_e/\overline{\nu}_e$-like events among complex interaction topologies present in ArgoNeuT data ($\langle E_{\bar{\nu}_e} \rangle = 4.3$ GeV and $\langle E_{\nu_e} \rangle = 10.5$ GeV). The techniques are widely applicable to searches for electron-flavor appearance at short- and long-baseline using liquid argon time projection chamber technology. Notably, the data-driven studies of GeV-scale $\nu_e/\overline{\nu}_e$ interactions presented in this Letter probe an energy regime relevant for future DUNE oscillation physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Finite Element Analysis for Predicting the Residual Compressive Strength of Impact-Damaged Sandwich Panels

A simple analysis method has been developed for predicting the residual compressive strength of impact-damaged sandwich panels. The method is tailored for honeycomb core-based sandwich specimens that exhibit an indentation growth failure mode under axial compressive loading, which is driven largely by the crushing behavior of the core material. The analysis method is in the form of a finite element model, where the impact-damaged facesheet is represented using shell elements and the core material is represented using spring elements, aligned in the thickness direction of the core. The nonlinear crush response of the core material used in the analysis is based on data from flatwise compression tests. A comparison with a previous analysis method and some experimental data shows good agreement with results from this new approach.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗

A Finite Element Analysis for Predicting the Residual Compression Strength of Impact-Damaged Sandwich Panels

A simple analysis method has been developed for predicting the residual compression strength of impact-damaged sandwich panels. The method is tailored for honeycomb core-based sandwich specimens that exhibit an indentation growth failure mode under axial compression loading, which is driven largely by the crushing behavior of the core material. The analysis method is in the form of a finite element model, where the impact-damaged facesheet is represented using shell elements and the core material is represented using spring elements, aligned in the thickness direction of the core. The nonlinear crush response of the core material used in the analysis is based on data from flatwise compression tests. A comparison with a previous analysis method and some experimental data shows good agreement with results from this new approach.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Geomagnetic Variability and Predictability

The Earth's magnetic field varies on time scales from seconds to millions of years. These variations can be measured directly by ground observatories and satellites, and indirectly through laboratories. They are from different electromagnetic processes in magnetosphere and ionosphere (external), ocean and crust (surface), and deep in the Earth's fluid outer core (internal). Of the measured magnetic signals, 95% is from the core, and is called the core field, or internal field. Variation of the core field, often called the geomagnetic secular variation (SV), is the manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamic processes in the core. Therefore, SV provides rich information on the core dynamical state that is then critical for understanding the geophysical mechanisms of the SV, the core-mantle interactions, and contribution of mass transport inside the core on Earth's gravity variation. Traditionally, the core state is probed via two independent methodologies: core flow inversion from the observed SV, and pure numerical dynamo simulation. The former is driven by observations, but does not include necessary interactions among physical variables; the latter is dynamically consistent, but is not constrained by any observation. Therefore, both are very limited in providing appropriate estimates of the core state. To avoid these limitations, a new approach, geomagnetic data assimilation, appears recently. In this approach, simulation results (model forecasts) are constantly corrected with observations, the corrected solutions (analysis), are then used as the initial conditions to make more accurate forecasts of future. Recent studies have demonstrated successfully that assimilation solutions are different from those of free running models. These new solutions are better estimates of the core state, and have been used to provide accurate prediction of SV for the period from 2010 to 2015. This prediction is part of the IGRF field model for international community applications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Earth Science Data and Models for Improved Targeting of Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian assistance to developing countries has long focused on countries that have political, economic and strategic interest to the United States. Recent changes in global security concerns have heightened the perception that humanitarian action is becoming increasingly politicized. This is seen to be largely driven by the 'global war on terror' along with a push by donors and the United Nations for closer integration between humanitarian action and diplomatic, military and other spheres of engagement in conflict and crisis-affected states (HPG 2010). As we enter an era of rising commodity prices and increasing uncertainty in global food production due to a changing climate, scientific data and analysis will be increasingly important to improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance. Earth science data enables appropriate humanitarian response to complex food emergencies that arise in regions outside the areas of current strategic and security focus. As the climate changes, new places will become vulnerable to food insecurity and will need emergency assistance. Earth science data and multidisciplinary models will enable an information-based comparison of need that goes beyond strategic and political considerations to identify new hotspots of food insecurity as they emerge. These analyses will improve aid targeting and timeliness while reducing strategic risk by highlighting new regions at risk of crisis in a rapidly changing world. Improved targeting with respect to timing and location could reduce cost while increasing the likelihood that those who need aid get it.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Information Management Workflow and Tools Enabling Multiscale Modeling Within ICME Paradigm

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Fortunately, material information management systems and physics-based multiscale modeling methods have kept pace with the growing user demands. Herein, recent efforts to establish workflow for and demonstrate a unique set of web application tools for linking NASA GRC's Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Granta MI database schema and NASA GRC's Integrated multiscale Micromechanics Analysis Code (ImMAC) software toolset are presented. The goal is to enable seamless coupling between both test data and simulation data, which is captured and tracked automatically within Granta MI®, with full model pedigree information. These tools, and this type of linkage, are foundational to realizing the full potential of ICME, in which materials processing, microstructure, properties, and performance are coupled to enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures.

Materials Engineering↗