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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Xylem vulnerability curves of canopy branches of mature trees from Caxiuana and Tapajos National Forests, Para, Brazil

Raw data for xylem vulnerability curves measured on upper canopy branches of mature trees from the Caxiuana and Tapajos National Forests, Para, Brazil. Tapajos samples were harvested from km67 transects, which is nearby the decommissioned throughfall-exclusion, drought-experiment plots. Caxiuana samples were harvested from trees growing in the throughfall-exclusion, drought-experiment plots. Data were collected in 2011 and 2012. Dataset includes: date of measurement, site ID, plot ID, tree ID (species, tree tag #), xylem pressure, percent loss of conductivity. Air injection method was used. Data reference: Powell et al. (2017) Differences in xylem cavitation resistance and leaf hydraulic traits explain differences in drought tolerance among mature Amazon rainforest trees. Global Change Biology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pantropical Tree Leaf Hydraulic Properties, 1986 - 2015

This data package contains leaf pressure-volume parameters (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, bulk elastic modulus, and others). Data was obtained by combining new data I gleaned from original publications not already in the following compilations (after removing the extratropical data): Bartlett, M. K., Zhang, Y., Kreidler, N., Sun, S., Ardy, R., Cao, K., and Sack, L.: Global analysis of plasticity in turgor loss point, a key drought tolerance trait, Ecol Lett, 17, 1580-1590, 2014. Bartlett, M. K., Scoffoni, C., and Sack, L.: The determinants of leaf turgor loss point and prediction of drought tolerance of species and biomes: a global meta-analysis, Ecology Letters, 15, 393-405, 2012. Maréchaux, I., Bartlett, M. K., Sack, L., Baraloto, C., Engel, J., Joetzjer, E., Chave, J., and Kitajima, K.: Drought tolerance as predicted by leaf water potential at turgor loss point varies strongly across species within an Amazonian forest, Functional Ecology, 29, 1268-1277, 2015. Data are from natural tropical and subtropical forests or savannas and span rainfall gradients from deciduous dry tropical forests to everwet tropical forests, and come from countries all throughout the pantropics. The attached zip file contains data organized into three CSV files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precision Gas Sampling (PGS) Validation2011-2014 Final Campaign Report

In this field campaign, we used eddy covariance towers to quantify carbon, water, and energy fluxes from a pasture and a wheat field that were converted to switchgrass. The U.S. Department of Energy is investing in switchgrass as a cellulosic bioenergy crop, but there is little data available that could be used to develop or test land surface model representations of the crop. This campaign was a collaboration between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service. Unfortunately, in 2011, Oklahoma had one of the most severe droughts on record, and the crop in one of the switchgrass fields experienced almost complete die-off. The crop was replanted, but subsequent drought conditions prevented its establishment. Then, in April 2012, a large tornado demolished the instruments at our site in Woodward, Oklahoma. These two events meant that we have some interesting data on land response to extreme weather; however, we were not able to collect continuous data for annual sums as originally intended. We did observe that, because of the drought, the net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 was much lower in 2011 than in 2010. Concomitantly, sensible heat fluxes increased and latent heat fluxes decreased. These conditions would have large consequences for land surface forcing of convection. Data from all years were submitted to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility Data Archive, and the sites were registered in AmeriFlux.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multi-objective Optimization of Solar-driven Hollow-fiber Membrane Distillation Systems

Securing additional water sources remains a primary concern for arid regions in both the developed and developing world. Climate change is causing fluctuations in the frequency and duration of precipitation, which can be can be seen as prolonged droughts in some arid areas. Droughts decrease the reliability of surface water supplies, which forces communities to find alternate primary water sources. In many cases, ground water can supplement the use of surface supplies during periods of drought, reducing the need for above-ground storage without sacrificing reliability objectives. Unfortunately, accessible ground waters are often brackish, requiring desalination prior to use, and underdeveloped infrastructure and inconsistent electrical grid access can create obstacles to groundwater desalination in developing regions. The objectives of the proposed project are to (i) mathematically simulate the operation of hollow fiber membrane distillation systems and (ii) optimize system design for off-grid treatment of brackish water. It is anticipated that methods developed here can be used to supply potable water at many off-grid locations in semi-arid regions including parts of the Navajo Reservation. This research is a collaborative project between Sandia and the University of Arizona.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Energy-Water Planning in the Western and Texas Interconnections

While long-term regional electricity transmission planning has traditionally focused on cost, infrastructure utilization, environmental impact, and reliability, the availability of water is an emerging issue. Toward this growing need, thermoelectric expansion should consider competing demands from other water use sectors balanced with fresh and non-traditional water supplies subject to climate variability. To address this need the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability supported an integrated planning project with funding through the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (2009). Specifically, an integrated energy-water analysis was performed to support transmission system planners in the Western and Texas Interconnections to explore the potential implications of water availability and cost for long-term transmission planning. The project brought together electric transmission planners (e.g., Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)) with western water planners (e.g., Western Governors' Association and the Western States Water Council). Efforts were organized into ten specific tasks: (1) project coordination and outreach; (2) thermoelectric water use; (3) non-thermoelectric water use; (4) water availability; (5) water cost; (6) environmental risk; (7) climate variability; (8) energy for water; (9) decision support system interface; and, (10) transmission planning support. Major accomplishments associated with this effort include: For the first time water availability was used to inform generation expansion planning by WECC and ERCOT. For the first time, projections of intensifying drought and its effect on reservoir levels, and thermal effluent discharge permitting were used to inform operational and expansion planning by ERCOT. Water withdrawal and consumption were characterized for each power plant in the WECC and ERCOT service areas/regions. Water use factors were also developed for a range of unit processes that allowed projection of future water demands related to electric generation expansion planning. Working with state water managers current and future water use (withdrawal and consumption) were projected throughout the Western United States at an 8-digit Hydraulic Unit Code (HUC-8) level (over 1200 watersheds). In a similar fashion water availability and cost were mapped across the Western United States. Considered were five different sources of water: unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Water basins (at the HUC-8 level) were mapped across the Western United States with regard to their potential for conflicts between aquatic and riparian species and habitats listed under the Endangered Species Act and water availability for future energy development. Water planners were engaged through the Western States Water Council and thus reflects their membership of the 17 contiguous western states (i.e., Texas up through the Dakotas and West). Power plants at greatest risk to the impacts of drought were identified. The analysis considered the hazards of low flows, insufficient reservoir storage, and elevated water temperatures under intensifying drought conditions projected for the future. The electricity used to provide water-related services was mapped at a county level throughout the Western U.S. Considered was the electricity required for interbasin conveyance, agricultural pumping, drinking water and wastewater services. To communicate our results the project has produced 6 journal articles, 1 book chapter, 11 reports, and 47 presentations at related conferences.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DEEPER: An Intergrated Platform for Deeper Roots

Crops with deeper roots would have multiple benefits, including better drought tolerance, reduced requirement for nitrogen fertilizer, and better sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 . DEEPER is an integrated platform of phenomic, genomic, and in silico technologies to generate maize lines with deeper roots. DEEPER is: LEADER (Leaf Elemental Accumulation from Deep Roots) is a breakthrough technology to nondestructively measure rooting depth by using the plant itself as a sensor. LEADER uses handheld X-ray Fluorescence spectrometry to quantify foliar accumulation of elements that are differentially distributed in the soil profile. LEADER is nondestructive and is orders of magnitude cheaper, faster, and more precise than any competing assay of rooting depth in the field. LEADER is able to distinguish deep-rooted from shallow-rooted maize lines in the field without the need for costly and noisy soil coring. RootRobot/DIRT3D, to automatically phenotype root architecture in any field, combining RootRobot, a mechatronics platform to excavate, clean, section, and image mature root crowns, with DIRT3D, software to quantify architectural traits in 3D. Anatomics, a high-throughput platform to phenotype root anatomy, combining LAT 2.0, a technology for 3D imaging of root anatomy and composition, with RootScan3D, software to automatically extract 3D anatomical and cell wall composition metrics from LAT 2.0 output. Using this platform we discovered two novel root traits, parenchyma cell wall thickness and multiseriate cortical sclerenchyma, that improve rooting depth and drought tolerance in maize and wheat. OpenSimRoot/Deep, software to simulate root interaction with hard subsoils. Using this platform we discovered novel concepts regarding how to increase crop rooting depth by modulating how individual root axes respond to hard soil. DeepGenes, a toolkit of genes, parent lines, and genomic selection strategies to enable breeding hybrids with deeper roots. We discovered 3 novel root genes that increase rooting depth in maize and wheat. DEEPER discovered novel root phenotypes for deeper rooting, and delivered validated ideotypes for deeper-rooted maize; novel technologies to rapidly assess root depth, root architecture and anatomy in field-grown plants; novel software tools for root modeling and 3D image analysis of root architecture and anatomy; and validated genes and genomic selection models to deploy traits for deeper rooting in maize breeding. Each DEEPER technology is transformative in its own right, and exceeds existing technologies. They are mutually synergistic, deployable for field-grown plants, and are ready for application. The phenotyping and modeling technologies are readily applicable to many crops, and genetic leads in maize may have utility in other grasses. Taken as a whole they represent a transformative platform to develop deeper-rooted crops, with greater drought tolerance, reduced fertilizer requirement, and greater carbon sequestration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗

Hyperspectral traits (TSWIFT) UC Davis Populus trichocarpa Common Garden

This dataset provides tower-based hyperspectral remote sensing measurements of individualPopulustrees collected with the TSWIFT system to support genetic analyses of canopy photosynthetic traits over time under drought. From 2022-08-18 to 2022-10-18, spectra were repeatedly acquired from the same targeted canopy area of each tree using fixed pointing coordinates. The dataset includes hyperspectral measurements from 400–900 nm and ultraspectral measurements from 730–780 nm. These spectra enable calculation of reflectance-based vegetation indices and other spectral traits, including solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals from the ultraspectral region. Because measurements were collected exclusively over a drought treatment plot, derived phenotypes are intended for drought-context genetic association and prediction analyses.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of Slope Aspect and Rainfall on Belowground Deep Fine Root Traits and Aboveground Tree Height

The vertical root distribution and rooting depth are the main belowground plant functional traits used to indicate drought resistance in arid and semiarid regions. The effects of the slope aspect on the aboveground traits are visible but not the belowground deep root traits. We aimed to investigate the fine root traits of the locust tree ( Robinia pseudoacacia L.) planted on southerly and northerly aspects, and the variations in the rooting depth in regions with different rainfall, as well as assessing how deep rooting, might affect the response to drought in a loess region. We selected three study sites with different rainfall amounts, with six sampling plots at each site (three each with southerly and northerly aspects). Soil core samples were collected down to the depth where no roots were present. The locust trees tended to develop deeper fine roots rather than greater heights. The tree height and diameter were greater for locust trees on northerly aspects, whereas trees on southerly aspects had significantly deeper rooting depths. Fine root traits (root length, root area, and root dry weight density) were higher in the southerly aspect for both Changwu and Ansai, but lower in Suide. The ratio of the root front depth tree height ranged from 1.04 to 3.17, which was higher on southerly than northerly aspects, and it increased as the rainfall decreased. Locust tree growth traits (belowground fine root and aboveground tree height) were positively correlated with the mean annual rainfall. The soil moisture content of the topsoil decreased as the rainfall decreased, but the pattern varied in the deep layer. Our results suggest that the variations in the belowground rooting depth under different slope aspects may be related to plant survival strategies. The vertical extension of the rooting depth and tree height may be key functional traits that determine plant growth in drought-prone regions.

Lihui, Ma↗

Soil Moisture, Grass Production and Mesquite Resprout Architecture Following Mesquite Above-Ground Mortality

Honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) is an invasive native woody plant in the southern Great Plains, USA. Treatments used to slow the invasion rate have either killed the plant (“root-kill”) or killed above-ground tissue (“top-kill”). Top-killing provides temporary suppression, but stimulates multi-stemmed regrowth. This study from north central Texas quantified soil moisture, grass production and mesquite resprout architecture following a mechanical clearing treatment that top-killed mesquite (cleared) compared to untreated mesquite woodland (woodland) over a 10-year period. During an extreme drought at 5 and 6 years post-clearing, soil moisture at 60-cm depth became lower in cleared than in woodland, suggesting that, as early as 5 years after top-kill, water use by regrowth mesquite could be greater than that by woodland mesquite. Perennial grass production was greater in cleared treatments than in woodland treatments in all years except the extreme drought years. Mesquite regrowth biomass increased numerically each year and was independent of annual precipitation with one exception. During the year 5 and 6 drought, mesquite stopped lateral expansion of larger stems and increased growth of smaller stems and twigs. In summary, top-killing mesquite generated short-term benefits of increased grass production, but regrowth created potentially negative consequences related to soil moisture.

Ansley, R. James↗

Data from: Comparative water use by maize, perennial crops, restored prairie, and poplar trees in the US Midwest

Water use by plant communities across years of varying water availability indicates how terrestrial water balances will respond to climate change and variability as well as to land cover change. Perennial biofuel crops, likely grown mainly on marginal lands of limited water availability, provide an example of a potentially extensive future land cover conversion. We measured growing-season evapotranspiration (ET) based on daily changes in soil profile water contents in five perennial systems—switchgrass, miscanthus, native grasses, restored prairie, and hybrid poplar—and in annual maize (corn) in a temperate humid climate (Michigan, USA). Three study years (2010, 2011 and 2013) had normal growing-season rainfall (480–610 mm) whereas 2012 was a drought year (210 mm). Over all four years, mean (±SEM) growing-season ET for perennial systems did not greatly differ from corn (496 ± 21 mm), averaging 559 (±14), 458 (±31), 573 (±37), 519 (±30), and 492 (±58) mm for switchgrass, miscanthus, native grasses, prairie, and poplar, respectively. Differences in biomass production largely determined variation in water use efficiency (WUE). Miscanthus had the highest WUE in both normal and drought years (52–67 and 43 kg dry biomass ha−1 mm−1, respectively), followed by maize (40–59 and 29 kg ha−1 mm−1); the native grasses and prairie were lower and poplar was intermediate. That measured water use by perennial systems was similar to maize across normal and drought years contrasts with earlier modeling studies and suggests that rain-fed perennial biomass crops in this climate have little impact on landscape water balances, whether replacing rain-fed maize on arable lands or successional vegetation on marginal lands. Results also suggest that crop ET rates, and thus groundwater recharge, streamflow, and lake levels, may be less sensitive to climate change than has been assumed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Water-stress-induced breakdown of carbon–water relations: indicators from diurnal FLUXNET patterns

Understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles is currently hampered by an uncertainty in how to capture the large variety of plant responses to drought. In FLUXNET, the global network of CO 2 and H 2 O flux observations, many sites do not uniformly report the ancillary variables needed to study drought response physiology. To this end, we outline two data-driven indicators based on diurnal energy, water, and carbon flux patterns derived directly from the eddy covariance data and based on theorized physiological responses to hydraulic and non-stomatal limitations.Hydraulic limitations (i.e. intra-plant limitations on water movement) are proxied using the relative diurnal centroid ( C ET * ), whichmeasures the degree to which the flux of evapotranspiration (ET) is shiftedtoward the morning. Non-stomatal limitations (e.g. inhibitions of biochemical reactions, RuBisCO activity, and/or mesophyll conductance) are characterized by the Diurnal Water–Carbon Index (DWCI), which measures the degree of coupling between ET and gross primary productivity (GPP) within each day.As a proof of concept we show the response of the metrics at six European sites during the 2003 heat wave event, showing a varied response of morning shifts and decoupling. Globally, we found indications of hydraulic limitations in the form of significantly high frequencies of morning-shifted days in dry/Mediterranean climates and savanna/evergreen plant functional types (PFTs), whereas high frequencies of decoupling were dominated by dry climates and grassland/savanna PFTs indicating a prevalence of non-stomatal limitations in these ecosystems. Wholly, both the diurnal centroid and DWCI were associated with high net radiation and low latent energy typical of drought. Using three water use efficiency (WUE) models, we found the mean differences between expected and observed WUE to be - 0.09 to0.44 µ mol mmol -1 and - 0.29 to - 0.40 µ mol mmol -1 for decoupled and morning-shifted days, respectively, compared to mean differences - 1.41 to - 1.42 µ mol mmol -1 in dry conditions, suggesting that morning shifts/hydraulic responses are associated with an increase in WUE,whereas decoupling/non-stomatal limitations are not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0

Abstract. Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model's results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗

Effect of elevation, season and accelerated snowmelt on biogeochemical processes during isolated conifer needle litter decomposition

Increased drought and temperatures associated with climate change have implications for ecosystem stress with risk for enhanced carbon release in sensitive biomes. Litter decomposition is a key component of biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, but questions remain regarding the local response of decomposition processes to climate change. This is particularly complex in mountain ecosystems where the variable nature of the slope, aspect, soil type, and snowmelt dynamics play a role. Hence, the goal of this study was to determine the role of elevation, soil type, seasonal shifts in soil moisture, and snowmelt timing on litter decomposition processes. Experimental plots containing replicate deployments of harvested lodgepole and spruce needle litter alongside needle-free controls were established in open meadows at three elevations ranging from 2,800–3,500 m in Crested Butte, Colorado. Soil biogeochemistry variables including gas flux, porewater chemistry, and microbial ecology were monitored over three climatically variable years that shifted from high monsoon rains to drought. Results indicated that elevation and soil type influenced baseline soil biogeochemical indicators; however, needle mass loss and chemical composition were consistent across the 700 m elevation gradient. Rates of gas flux were analogously consistent across a 300 m elevation gradient. The additional variable of early snowmelt by 2–3 weeks had little impact on needle chemistry, microbial composition and gas flux; however, it did result in increased dissolved organic carbon in lodgepole porewater collections suggesting a potential for aqueous export. In contrast to elevation, needle presence and seasonal variability of soil moisture and temperature both played significant roles in soil carbon fluxes. Furthermore, during a pronounced period of lower moisture and higher temperatures, bacterial community diversity increased across elevation with new members supplanting more dominant taxa. Microbial ecological resilience was demonstrated with a return to pre-drought structure and abundance after snowmelt rewetting the following year. These results show similar decomposition processes across a 700 m elevation gradient and reveal the sensitivity but resilience of soil microbial ecology to low moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Soil moisture from temperature measurements at the Earth's surface, update

Soil moisture budgets at the Earth's surface were investigated based on soil and atmospheric temperature variations. A number of data sets were plotted and statistically analyzed in order to accentuate the existence and the characteristics of mesoscale soil temperature extrema variations and their relations to other parameters. The correlations between diurnal temperature extrema for air and soil in drought and non-drought periods appear to follow different characteristic patterns, allowing an inference of soil moisture content from temperature data. The recovery of temperature extrema after a precipitation event also follows a characteristic power curve rise between two limiting values which is an indicator of evaporation rates. If these indicators are applied universally to regional temperature data, soil moisture content or drought conditions can be inferred directly from temperature measurements.

Welker, J. E.↗

Enhancement of surface-atmosphere fluxes by desert-fringe vegetation through reduction of surface albedo and of soil heat flux

Under the arid conditions prevailing at the end of the dry season in the western Negev/northern Sinai region, vegetation causes a sharp increase relative to bare soil in the daytime sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere. Two mechanisms are involved: the increase in the surface absorptivity and a decrease in the surface heat flux. By increasing the sensible heat flux to the atmosphere through the albedo and the soil heat flux reductions, the desert-fringe vegetation increases the daytime convection and the growth of the planetary boundary layer. Removal of vegetation by overgrazing, by reducing the sensible heat flux, tends to reduce daytime convective precipitation, producing higher probabilities of drought conditions. This assessment of overgrazing is based on observations in the Sinai/Negev, where the soil albedo is high and where overgrazing produces an essential bare soil. Even if the assessment for the Sinai/Negev does not quantitatively apply throughout Africa, the current practice in many African countries of maintaining a large population of grazing animals, can contribute through the mesoscale mechanisms described to reduce daytime convective precipitation, perpetuating higher probabilities of drought. Time-of-day analysis of precipitation in Africa appears worthwhile, to better assess the role of the surface conditions in contributing to drought.

Otterman, J.↗

Climate and society in 20th century Mexico

Mexican agriculture has been greatly transformed by the widespread introduction of 'Green Revolution' technologies (irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and improved seeds), through land reform, and by land use policies oriented to export crops and grain production. Drought prone Mexico provides an excellent case to study how technological and social changes alter the impact of drought on food and agricultural system. A goal is to document and understand how relationships between climate and agriculture in Mexico have changed in the last fifty years. The results for several locations will be interpreted in light of the prospects of regional climate change due to global warming. This analysis will be complimented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought which will use local records and interviews to try and show how environmental, technological, and social changes may have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems.

Liverman, Diana M.↗