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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River

The continued growth of Southwestern cities depends on reliable water export from Rocky Mountain headwaters, which provide ~85% of Colorado River Basin (CRB) streamflow. Despite being more sensitive to warming temperatures, alpine systems are simplified in the regional-scale models currently in use to plan for future water supply. We used an integrated hydrologic model that couples groundwater and surface water with snow and vegetation processes to examine the effect of topographic simplifications as a result of grid coarsening in a representative CRB headwater basin. High-resolution (100 m) simulations predicted headwater streamflow losses of 16% by 2050 while coarse-resolution (1 km) simulations predict only 12%, suggesting that regional-scale models (coarser than 1 km) likely overestimate future Colorado River Basin water supplies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of atmospheric transmissivity on model and observational estimates of the sea ice albedo feedback

The sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) is the product of the ice sensitivity (IS) – how much the surface albedo in sea-ice regions changes as the planet warms– and the radiative sensitivity (RS) – how much the top of atmosphere radiation changes as the surface albedo changes. We demonstrate that the RS calculated from radiative kernels in climate models is reproduced from calculations using the “approximate partial radiative perturbation” method that uses the climatological radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the assumption that the atmosphere is isotropic to shortwave radiation. This method facilitates the comparison of RS from satellite-based estimates of climatological radiative fluxes with RS estimates across a full suite of coupled climate models and, thus, allows model evaluation of a quantity important in characterizing the climate impact of sea ice concentration changes. The satellite based RS is within the model range of RS that differs by a factor of two across climate models in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Observed trends in Arctic sea ice are used to estimate IS which, in conjunction with the satellite-based RS yields an SIAF of 0.16 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1. This Arctic SIAF estimate suggests a modest amplification of future global surface temperature change by approximately 14% relative to a climate system with no SIAF. We calculate the global albedo feedback in climate models using model specific RS and IS and find a model mean feedback parameter of 0.37 W m-2 K-1 which is 40% larger than the IPCC AR5 estimate based on using RS calculated from radiative kernel calculations in a single climate model.

Arctic, Antarctic, climate change, Climate & Earth↗

Estimation of secondary organic aerosol viscosity from explicit modeling of gas-phase oxidation of isoprene and α -pinene

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are major components of atmospheric fine particulate matter, affecting climate and air quality. Mounting evidence exists that SOA can adopt glassy and viscous semisolid states, impacting formation and partitioning of SOA. In this study, we apply the GECKO-A (Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) model to conduct explicit chemical modeling of isoprene photooxidation and α-pinene ozonolysis and their subsequent SOA formation. The detailed gas-phase chemical schemes from GECKO-A are implemented into a box model and coupled to our recently developed glass transition temperature parameterizations, allowing us to predict SOA viscosity. The effects of chemical composition, relative humidity, mass loadings and mass accommodation on particle viscosity are investigated in comparison with measurements of SOA viscosity. The simulated viscosity of isoprene SOA agrees well with viscosity measurements as a function of relative humidity, while the model underestimates viscosity of α-pinene SOA by a few orders of magnitude. This difference may be due to missing processes in the model, including autoxidation and particle-phase reactions, leading to the formation of high-molar-mass compounds that would increase particle viscosity. Additional simulations imply that kinetic limitations of bulk diffusion and reduction in mass accommodation coefficient may play a role in enhancing particle viscosity by suppressing condensation of semi-volatile compounds. The developed model is a useful tool for analysis and investigation of the interplay among gas-phase reactions, particle chemical composition and SOA phase state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formation and evolution of protostellar accretion discs – II. From 3D simulation to a simple semi-analytic model of Class 0/I discs

Here we use a 3D radiative non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulation to investigate the formation and evolution of a young protostellar disc from a magnetized pre-stellar core. The simulation covers the first ${\sim }10\, {\rm kyr}$ after protostar formation and shows a massive, weakly magnetized disc with radius that initially grows and then saturates at ${\sim }30\, {\rm au}$. The disc is gravitationally unstable with prominent large-amplitude spiral arms. We use our simulation results and a series of physical arguments to construct a predictive and quantitative physical picture of Class 0/I protostellar disc evolution from several aspects, including (i) the angular-momentum redistribution in the disc, self-regulated by gravitational instability to make most of the disc marginally unstable; (ii) the thermal profile of the disc, well-approximated by a balance between radiative cooling and accretion heating; and (iii) the magnetic-field strength and magnetic-braking rate inside the disc, regulated by non-ideal magnetic diffusion. Using these physical insights, we build a simple 1D semi-analytic model of disc evolution. We show that this 1D model, when coupled to a computationally inexpensive simulation for the evolution of the surrounding pseudo-disc, can be used reliably to predict disc evolution in the Class 0/I phase. The predicted long-term evolution of disc size, which saturates at ${\sim }30\, {\rm au}$ and eventually shrinks, is consistent with a recent observational survey of Class 0/I discs. Such hierarchical modelling of disc evolution circumvents the computational difficulty of tracing disc evolution through Class 0/I phase with direct, numerically converged simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structure of Stellar Remnants with Coupling to a Light Scalar

In this paper we study how a Yukawa coupling of the Standard Model fermions to a light scalar field effects the stellar structure of cold stellar remnants such as neutron stars. We elucidate the stellar structure phenomenology using a simple model of a massive scalar coupled to a single dominant fermion with no other interactions. For a broad scalar mass range ($10^{-10}\,\mathrm{eV}\ll m_\phi\ll10^3\,\mathrm{eV}$ for neutron stars) we show that the equation-of-state and stellar structure depends only the effective coupling $\mathfrak{g}=\frac{g_f\,m_f}{m_\phi}$, where $g_f$ is the Yukawa coupling, $m_f$ the fermion mass and $m_\phi$ is the scalar kinematic mass at nuclear densities. If $\mathfrak{g}>\mathcal{O}(1)$ the Yukawa coupled matter exhibits various anomalous behaviors including hydrodynamic instability, negative pressure, distinct phases (soft and hard) of matter with sharp phase boundaries between them and with vacuum. These anomalies can lead to stars consisting of only soft, only hard or hybrid of soft and hard matter. These stars can have varying signs of the slope of the mass-radius relation, anomalously large and small masses, gaps in allowed radii, multiple radii for the same mass, very thin crusts and radiate anomalously large amounts of energy when they form (in the form of neutrinos for neutron stars). To the extent that these anomalies have not and/or will not be observed limits the effective coupling to $\mathfrak{g}<\mathcal{O}(1)$. We argue this phenomenology is generic to realistic models of stars with Yukawa coupled matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Old-Aged groundwater contributes to mountain hillslope hydrologic dynamics

Understanding connectivity between the soil and deeper bedrock groundwater is needed to accurately predict a watershed’s response to perturbation, such as drought. Yet, the bedrock groundwater dynamics in mountainous environments are typically under-constrained and excluded from watershed hydrologic models. Here, we investigate the role of groundwater characterized with decadal and longer water ages on the hydrologic and mass-transport processes within a steep snow-dominated mountain hillslope in the Central Rocky Mountains (USA). We quantify subsurface and surface water mass-balance, groundwater flowpaths, and age distributions using the ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models, which are compared to hydrometric and environmental tracer observations. An ensemble of models with varied soil and hydrogeologic parameters reproduces observed groundwater levels and century-scale mean ages inferred from environmental tracers. The numerical models suggest soil water near the toe of the hillslope contains considerable (>60 % of the mass-flux) contributions from bedrock flowpaths characterized with water ages >10 years. Flowpath connectivity between the deeper bedrock and soil systems is present throughout the year, highlighting the potentially critical role of groundwater with old ages on processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow generation. The coupled numerical model and groundwater age observations show the bedrock groundwater system influences the hillslope hydrodynamics and should be considered in mountain watershed conceptual and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Analytical Model for the Tension-Shear Coupling of Woven Fabrics with Different Weave Patterns under Large Shear Deformation

It is essential to accurately describe the large shear behavior of woven fabrics in the composite preforming process. An analytical model is proposed to describe the shear behavior of fabrics with different weave patterns, in which tension-shear coupling is considered. The coupling is involved in two parts, the friction between overlapped yarns and the in-plane transverse compression between two parallel yarns. By introducing the concept of inflection points of a yarn, the model is applicable for fabrics with different weave patterns. The analytical model is validated by biaxial tension-shear experiments. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the effects of external load, yarn geometry, and weave structure on the large shear behavior of fabrics. The developed model can reveal the physical mechanism of tension-shear coupling of woven fabrics. Moreover, the model has a high computational efficiency due to its explicit expressions, thus benefiting the material design process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task C Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task C which was proposed and coordinated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. DECOVALEX-2019 Task C aims to develop modelling and prediction methods using numerical simulation based on the water-filling experiment to examine the post-driftclosure environment recovery processes. Three research teams, JAEA, Sandia National Laboratories in the United States (SNL), and the Technical University of Liberec in the Czech Republic (TUL) were challenged to simulate the observed environmental changes. The Task consisted of following three main steps. The simulation targets were the water pressure drawdown/recovery and the variation of water chemistry during the tunnel excavation and closure, as observed in the monitoring boreholes and the CTD.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PigmentHunter: A point-and-click application for automated chlorophyll-protein simulations

Chlorophyll proteins (CPs) are the workhorses of biological photosynthesis, working together to absorb solar energy, transfer it to chemically active reaction centers, and control the charge-separation process that drives its storage as chemical energy. Yet predicting CP optical and electronic properties remains a serious challenge, driven by the computational difficulty of treating large, electronically coupled molecular pigments embedded in a dynamically structured protein environment. To address this challenge, we introduce here an analysis tool called PigmentHunter, which automates the process of preparing CP structures for molecular dynamics (MD), running short MD simulations on the nanoHUB.org science gateway, and then using electrostatic and steric analysis routines to predict optical absorption, fluorescence, and circular dichroism spectra within a Frenkel exciton model. Inter-pigment couplings are evaluated using point-dipole or transition-charge coupling models, while site energies can be estimated using both electrostatic and ring-deformation approaches. The package is built in a Jupyter Notebook environment, with a point-and-click interface that can be used either to manually prepare individual structures or to batch-process many structures at once. Here, we illustrate PigmentHunter’s capabilities with example simulations on spectral line shapes in the light harvesting 2 complex, site energies in the Fenna–Matthews–Olson protein, and ring deformation in photosystems I and II.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗

Modeling the corrosion of steel casing and the damage of well cement in a borehole system

This work presents the effect of chloride-induced corrosion in an underground borehole system, specifically considering the steel casing and further damage to the surrounding cement. In the past four decades, oil well cement has been successfully used for underground construction. However, high concentrations of chloride ions gradually degrade the functionality and durability of well cement. Gasses and liquids can leak from deterioration caused by chloride ions, and thus motivate this study. The chemo-mechanical coupling diffusion model and a classical fracture mechanics model are applied. The model is validated with OPC concrete corrosion data from literature, and then applied to well cement using experimentally obtained material property data. The time when crack initiation, peak pressure, and complete fracture is reached in the model of the cement sheath provides a quantification of the expected service life of the borehole system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hadron spectroscopy of pseudoscalar and vector meson photoproduction using linearly polarised photons at CLAS

The field of hadron spectroscopy is informed by experiments which study excited states of the nucleon by detecting the decay products following excitation with a hadronic, leptonic or electromagnetic probe. Experiments using a polarised beam of photons provide an important contribution to the world data. This thesis describes the analysis of data from one such experiment, the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer at Jefferson Laboratory, Virginia, USA. In the experiment, an incident beam of electrons passes through a diamond radiator producing a linearly polarised photon beam of energy from 1.1 to 2.1 GeV on a liquid hydrogen target. The analysis method and results for two reaction channels are presented. In the first analysis, the polarisation observables {?, P, T, Ox, Oz} for the reaction ??? p ? K0 S ?+ are extracted simultaneously using likelihood sampling with Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo. The results are presented as angular distributions (cos ?K0S) for bins in photon energy E? for a total of 21 bins. The values extracted for T , Ox and Oz are a first measurement of these quantities for this reaction and the beam asymmetry (?) measurement supplements the one previous measurement for this quantity and extends the energy range over which it has been extracted. The measurement of the recoil polarisation, P, is consistent with previous measurements. In a second analysis, the spin density matrix elements (SDMEs) for ? p ? p ? are extracted using similar analysis techniques. The results are presented as angular distributions (cos ?? ) for bins in photon energy E? for a total of 24 bins. This work is the first to extract all nine SDMEs for the full angular range of the ? meson production. A comparison is made to the predictions of the Vector Meson Dominance (VMD) model and the results provide evidence for contributing processes other than VMD, particularly at more backward angles of the ? meson production. The data also indicate non-helicity conserving process in both the s-channel and the t-channel. The results from the first analysis have been passed to the Juelich-Bonn theory group and the effect of including the new data within their dynamical coupled channel model is described. Several nucleon resonances are affected and the impact on the pole positions, widths and photon decay amplitudes of the affected resonances is described.

Clark, Louise↗

Generation of localized reactor point kinetics parameters using coupled neutronic and thermal fluid models for pebble-bed reactor transient analysis

The systems analysis of anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accidents for pebble-bed reactor systems requires knowledge of neutron point kinetics equations (PKE) parameters. Typically, the generation of PKE parameters is performed in a global manner using standalone neutronics calculations, without the inclusion of thermal fluid distributions. We utilize Griffin and Pronghorn for generating global and local PKE parameters which includes the use of thermal fluid distributions to account for localized effects. This work establishes a methodology for calculating PKE parameters for a pebble bed reactor with a coupled neutronics/thermal fluids analysis. PKE parameters generated on a global and local basis are compared against a diffusion solve for a typical load-following transient. Locally-generated neutron kinetic parameters are able to reduce the maximum error in the transient power level from 5% to below 1.5%; along with this, bulk temperature errors were reduced from 12 K to 4 K.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Quantifying the effect of late bombardment on terrestrial zircons

The first 500 million years of Earth history is thought to be a period of intense planetary bombardment, but the timing and flux of this meteorite bombardment is poorly understood. In particular, on the basis of an inferred lunar impact history, some workers have hypothesized a ~3.9 Ga terminal cataclysm (TC) in which there was marked increase in the impact flux affecting the Moon, the Earth and possibly other terrestrial planets. Minerals that survived this enigmatic period offer a way to test early planetary bombardment models as they may contain telltale micro- to nanoscale shock features. Here, we present results from a numerical modeling calculation that assesses the probability that a zircon residing in the crust would escape shock melting or shock deformation during a TC bombardment event. Even with conservative pressure estimates for zircon shock deformation and intermediate bombardment intensities, we find that only ~6% of ≥4.0 Ga crust would be expected to survive a 3.9 Ga cataclysm without experiencing either complete melting or zircon shock metamorphism. In this study, we couple this modeling with a search for shock effects in the oldest zircons from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, which would have been present in the Earth's crust during a putative 3.9 Ga TC. Spatially correlated electron and NanoSIMS ion microscopy of 4.02 Ga igneous zircons from Acasta reveals no evidence of ancient shock. These data, together with similar results from other Hadean zircon suites, confirm that a post-Hadean TC is unlikely to have occurred. We suggest that the dearth of pre-3.9 Ga terrestrial crust and zircons is instead best explained by endogenic processes related to the mechanisms of early crust formation. Our modeling allows us to evaluate bombardment scenarios from the terrestrial zircon record by applying probabilistic interpretations to zircon shock deformation data. This approach will be valuable for other planetary bodies, allowing broader conclusions to be drawn from geographically limited datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Resolution requirements for energy conservation in kinetic plasma simulations

The kinetic codes used to model the coupled dynamics of electromagnetic fields and charged particle transport have requirements for spatial, temporal, and charge resolution. These requirements may vary by the solution technique and scope of the problem. In this report, we investigate the resolution limits in the energy-conserving implicit particle-in-cell code CHICAGO. This report has the narrow aim of determining the maximum acceptable grid spacing for the dense plasmas generated in models of z-pinch target gases and power-flow electrode plasmas. In the 2D sample problem, the plasma drifts without external forces with velocity of 10 cm/µs. Simulations are scaled by plasma density to maintain uniform strides across the plasma and from the plasma to the boundaries. Additionally, the cloud-in-cell technique is used with 400 particles per cell and Δ t = 0.85× the Courant limit. For the linear cloud distribution, the criterion for conserving energy is Δ E/E tot < 0.01 for 50,000 time steps. The grid resolution is determined to crudely be Δx ≲ 3 l s , where l s is the electron collisionless skin depth. For the second-order cloud distribution the criterion is Δ E/E tot < 0.005 yielding Δx ≤ 15 l s . These scalings are functions of the chosen v d , Δ t , particles-per-cell, and number of steps.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Experimental study correlating damage and permeability in concrete using confined, flattened Brazilian disks

This research experimentally studies coupled hydro-mechanical relationships using flattened Brazilian disks under confinement, with concurrent permeability measurements and acoustic emission monitoring. A series of tests are performed on concrete, as representative samples of brittle geo-materials, under a range of confining stresses between 2.76 and 13.79 MPa. Acoustic emission data is used to quantify damage and identify damage thresholds. Damage is then correlated to pre-peak changes in permeability. The advancement of models that couple transport properties to mechanical responses are of interest in the fields of carbon sequestration, hydrofracking, production of geothermal energy, induced seismicity, and underground nuclear waste storage, and these experiments validate a novel experimental approach towards investigating hydro-mechanical relationships.

Boyce, S.↗

Vector-level feedforward control of LPBF melt pool area using a physics-based thermal model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing technique that has gained popularity thanks to its ability to produce geometrically complex, fully dense metal parts. However, these parts are prone to internal defects and geometric inaccuracies, stemming in part from variations in the melt pool. Here, this paper proposes a novel vector-level feedforward control framework for regulating melt pool area in LPBF. By decoupling part-scale thermal behavior from small-scale melt pool physics, the controller provides a scale-agnostic prediction of melt pool area and efficient optimization over it. This is done by operating on two coupled lightweight models: a finite-difference thermal model that efficiently captures vector-level temperature fields and a reduced-order, analytical melt pool model. Each model is calibrated separately with minimal single-track and 2D experiments, and the framework is validated on a complex 3D geometry in both Inconel 718 and 316L stainless steel. Results showed that feedforward vector-level laser power scheduling reduced geometric inaccuracy in key dimensions by 62%, overall porosity by 16.5%, and photodiode root-mean-squared deviation by 38.5% on average. Overall, this modular, data-efficient approach demonstrates that proactively compensating for known thermal effects can significantly improve part quality while remaining computationally efficient and readily extensible to other materials and machines.

Additive manufacturing↗

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗