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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A meta-analysis of soil microbial biomass responses to forest disturbances

Climate warming is likely to increase the frequency and severity of forest disturbances, with uncertain consequences for soil microbial communities and their contribution to ecosystem C dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we conducted a meta-analysis of 139 published soil microbial responses to forest disturbances. These disturbances included abiotic (fire, harvesting, storm) and biotic (insect, pathogen) disturbances. We hypothesized that soil microbial biomass would decline following forest disturbances, but that abiotic disturbances would elicit greater reductions in microbial biomass than biotic disturbances. In support of this hypothesis, across all published studies, disturbances reduced soil microbial biomass by an average of 29.4%. However, microbial responses differed between abiotic and biotic disturbances. Microbial responses were significantly negative following fires, harvest, and storms (48.7, 19.1, and 41.7% reductions in microbial biomass, respectively). In contrast, changes in soil microbial biomass following insect infestation and pathogen-induced tree mortality were non-significant, although biotic disturbances were poorly represented in the literature. When measured separately, fungal and bacterial responses to disturbances mirrored the response of the microbial community as a whole. Changes in microbial abundance following disturbance were significantly positively correlated with changes in microbial respiration. We propose that the differential effect of abiotic and biotic disturbances on microbial biomass may be attributable to differences in soil disruption and organic C removal from forests among disturbance types. Altogether, these results suggest that abiotic forest disturbances may significantly decrease soil microbial abundance, with corresponding consequences for microbial respiration. Further studies are needed on the effect of biotic disturbances on forest soil microbial communities and soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Meteoritic Component in Impact Deposits

This proposal requested support for a broad-based research program designed to understand the chemical and mineralogical record of accretion of extraterrestrial matter to the Earth. The primary goal of this research is to study the accretion history of the Earth, to understand how this accretion history reflects the long-term flux of comets, asteroids, and dust in the inner solar system and how this flux is related to the geological and biological history of the Earth. This goal is approached by seeking out the most significant projects that can be attacked utilizing the expertise of the PI and potential collaborators. The greatest expertise of the PI is the analysis of meteoritic components in terrestrial sediments. This proposal identifies three primary areas of research, involving impact events in the early Archean (3.2 Ga), the late Eocene (35 Ma) and the late Pliocene (2 Ma). In the early Archean we investigate sediments that contain the oldest recorded impacts on Earth. These are thick spherule beds, three of which were deposited within 20 m.y. If these are impact deposits the flux of objects to Earth at this time was much greater than predicted by current models. Earlier work used Cr isotopes to prove that one of these contain extraterrestrial matter, from a projectile with Cr isotopes similar to CV chondrites. We planned to expand this work to other spherule beds and to search for additional evidence of other impact events. With samples from D. Lowe (Stanford Univ.) the PI proposed to screen samples for high Ir and Cr so that appropriate samples can be provided to A. Shukolyukov for Cr-isotopic analyses. This work was expected to provide evidence that at least one interval in the early Archean was a period of intense bombardment and to characterize the composition of objects accreted. The late Eocene is also a period of intense bombardment with multiple spherule deposits and two large craters. Farley et al. (1998) demonstrated an increased (3)He flux to marine sediments that was attributed to an increase in interplanetary dust due to a shower of comets invading the inner solar system. We planned to detect a change in the Cr-isotopic composition in the flux of fine-grained extraterrestrial matter to ocean sediments. This would provide evidence for the comet shower hypothesis. We planned attempt to locate late Eocene impact deposits in a new high resolution, hi-latitude site that had the potential for excellent preservation and new information of the sources and effects of these impacts. Although most impacts on Earth occur in deep-ocean basins, only one such event is known - the late Pliocene impact of the Eltanin asteroid. The ejecta from this impact includes Ir- rich impact melt, spherules, and actual meteorites from the km-sized mesosiderite asteroid. Through a study of the ejecta, we can learn about the formation, distribution, alteration and preservation of Ir-rich deposits. We can also learn about meteorite survival during hypervelocity impacts and we can study pieces of a km-sized object to learn more about the mesosiderite parent body. Analyses of sediment cores and geophysical exploration of the impact site can further our understanding of the processes involved in deep-ocean impacts and potential effects on the terrestrial climate and biosphere. We planned analyses of this ejecta, a search for ejecta 5000 km distant from the impact area, and a new oceanographic expedition to study and sample the impact site. In addition to these three specific areas of research, the PI planned to remain flexible and available to exploit new opportunities presented by new discoveries, and to engage in new collaborations if other researchers require his expertise to develop new projects that fit within the objectives of the overall research program.

Kyte, Frank T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Assessment of the Surface Longwave Direct Radiative Effect of Airborne Dust in Zhangye China During the Asian Monsoon Year Field Experiment (2008)

Tiny suspensions of solid particles or liquid droplets, called aerosols, hover in earth's atmosphere and can be found over just about anywhere including oceans, deserts, vegetated areas, and other global regions. Aerosols come in a variety of sizes, shapes, and compositions which depend on such factors as their origin and how long they have been in the atmosphere (i.e., their residence time). Some of the more common types of aerosols include mineral dust and sea salt which get lifted from the desert and ocean surfaces, respectively by mechanical forces such as strong winds. Depending on their size, aerosols will either fall out gravitationally, as in the case of larger particles, or will remain resident in the atmosphere where they can undergo further change through interactions with other aerosols and cloud particles. Not only do aerosols affect air quality where they pose a health risk, they can also perturb the distribution of radiation in the earth-atmosphere system which can inevitably lead to changes in our climate. One aerosol that has been in the forefront of many recent studies, particularly those examining its radiative effects, is mineral dust. The large spatial coverage of desert source regions and the fact that dust can radiatively interact with such a large part of the electromagnetic spectrum due to its range in particle size, makes it an important aerosol to study. Dust can directly scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation which can subsequently alter the amount of radiation that would otherwise be present in the absence of dust at any level of the atmosphere like the surface. This is known as radiative forcing. At the surface dust can block incoming solar energy, however at infrared wavelengths, dust acts to partially compensate the solar losses. Evaluating the solar radiative effect of dust aerosols is relatively straightforward due in part to the relatively large signal-to-noise ratio in the measurements. At infrared wavelengths, on the other hand, the effect is rather difficult to ascertain since the measured dust signal level is on the same order as the instrumental uncertainties. Although the radiative impact of dust is much smaller in the infrared, it can still have a noticeable influence on the distribution of energy in the Earth-atmosphere system. This is mainly attributed to the strong light-absorptive properties commonly found in many earth minerals.

Hansell, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ancient Martian aeolian sand dune deposits recorded in the stratigraphy of Valles Marineris and implications for past climates

Aeolian sediment transport, deposition, and erosion have been ongoing throughout Mars’ history. This record of widespread aeolian processes is preserved in landforms and geologic units that retain important clues about past environmental conditions including wind patterns. In this study we describe landforms within Melas Chasma, Valles Marineris, that occur in distinct groups with linear to crescentic shapes, arranged with a characteristic wavelength; some possess slope profiles analogous to modern sand dunes, yet show evidence for lithification. Based on the features’ dimensions, asymmetry, and spatial patterns relative to modern equivalents, we interpret these landforms to be two classes of aeolian bedforms: decameter-scale mega-ripples and sand dunes. The presence of superposed erosional features and depositional units indicates these landforms were cemented and likely ancient. Melas paleo-dunes are found atop Hesperian-aged layered deposits, but we estimate them to be younger, likely lithified in the Amazonian period. Although a range of degradation was observed, some paleo-dunes are >10 m tall and maintain steep lee sides (>25°), an uncommon scenario for terrestrial examples as other geologic processes lead to dune obliteration. The preserved paleo-bedform geometries are largely consistent with those of modern aeolian indicators, suggesting no major shifts in wind regime or contributing boundary conditions. Finally, we propose their appearance and context require sequential periods of dune migration, stabilization following catastrophic burial, cementation, differential erosion, exposure, and burial. The presence of wholly preserved duneforms appears to be more common on Mars compared to the Earth and may signal something important about Martian landscape evolution. Plain Language Summary Wind-driven sand dunes are common on modern Mars and the presence of certain sedimentary rock layers indicates these landforms occurred there in the past. Here, we explore features in the canyons of Valles Marineris which show characteristics frequently attributed to dunes, yet evidence for their lithification and burial is clear. Their horizontal extent, height, shape, slopes, and collective spatial patterns led to our interpretation of them as lithified dune fields. The heavily eroded appearance along with superposed elements such as craters and boulders led to the conclusion that these are relatively ancient landforms. Despite this erosion This level of preservation is rare for terrestrial sand dunes due to erosion and tectonics, thus providing an opportunity to reconstruct the various factors contributing to their history. Understanding the circumstances that led to the preservation of these ancient duneforms will yield crucial information regarding planetary sedimentary processes and the geologic history of the region.

Matthew Chojnacki↗
DOE OSTI2017

Drought impacts on photosynthesis, isoprene emission and atmospheric formaldehyde in a mid-latitude forest

Isoprene plays a critical role in air quality and climate. Photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are both related to isoprene emission at large spatiotemporal scales, but neither is a perfect proxy. Here we apply multiple satellite products and site-level measurements to examine the impact of water deficit on the three interlinked variables at the Missouri Ozarks site during a 20-day mild dryness stress in summer 2011 and a 3-month severe drought in summer 2012. Isoprene emission shows opposite responses to the short- and long-term droughts, while GPP was substantially reduced in both cases. In 2012, both remote-sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) and satellite HCHO column qualitatively capture reductions in flux-derived GPP and isoprene emission, respectively, on weekly to monthly time scales, but with muted responses. For instance, as flux-derived GPP approaches zero in late summer 2012, SIF drops by 29–33% (July) and 19–27% (August) relative to year 2011. A possible explanation is that electron transport and photosystem activity are maintained to a certain extent under the drought stress. Similarly, flux tower isoprene emissions in July 2012 are 54% lower than July 2011, while the relative reductions in July for 3 independent satellite-derived HCHO data products are 27%, 12% and 6%, respectively. Finally, we attribute the muted HCHO response to a photochemical feedback whereby reduced isoprene emission increases the oxidation capacity available to generate HCHO from other volatile organic compound sources. Satellite SIF offers a potential alternative indirect method to monitor isoprene variability at large spatiotemporal scales from space, although further research is needed under different environmental conditions and regions. Our analysis indicates that fairly moderate reductions in satellite SIF and HCHO column may imply severe drought conditions at the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Energy-Efficient and Comfortable Buildings through Multivariate Integrated Control (ECoMIC)

This project aims to develop an integrated control solution for enhanced energy efficiency and user comfort in commercial buildings. The developed technology is a zone-based control framework that minimizes energy usage while maintaining occupants’ visual and thermal comfort through control of electric lights, motorized venetian blinds and thermostats. The control framework is designed following a modular, scalable and flexible architecture to facilitate easy integration with exiting building management systems. The control framework contains two key algorithms: 1) the lighting load balancing algorithm and 2) the thermostat control algorithm. The lighting load balancing algorithm adopts a model-based closed-loop control approach to determine the optimal electric light and venetian blind settings. It is formulated into an optimization problem with minimizing lighting-related energy consumptions as the objective and delivering adequate task light and preventing daylight glare as the constraints. The thermostat control algorithm is based on a well-established thermal comfort model and formulated as a root-finding problem to dynamically determine the optimal thermostat setpoint for both energy savings and improved thermal comfort. To address building-wide scalability, a system architecture was developed for the zone-based control technology. Three levels of services are defined in the architecture: external services, facility level services and zone level services. The zone-level service includes the control algorithms described above as well as the corresponding interfaces, profiles, sensors and actuators to realize the zone controller. The facility level services connect to the zones through a backbone network, handle supervisory level information and controls, and thus facilitate building-wide scalability. The external services provide communication capability to entities outside of the building for grid interaction and remote access. Various aspects of the developed control technology were evaluated and verified through both simulations and testbed implementations. Simulations coupling a DOE medium office reference building in EnergyPlus building simulation software and a prototype controller in Matlab were performed. During summer time in a mixed-humid climate zone, the simulations revealed reductions of 27% and 42% in electric lighting load and cooling load, respectively, when compared to an advanced base case with daylight dimming and blinds automatically tilted to block direct sun. Two single-room testbeds were established. The testbed at Philips Lighting business building (Rosemont, IL) was designed for quantifying energy performance of integrated controls. This particular implementation achieved 40% and 79% savings on lighting and HVAC energy, respectively, compared to a relatively simple base case operated on predefined schedules. While the resulting energy savings was very encouraging, it should be noted that there may be several caveats associated with it. 1) The test was run during late spring and early summer, and the savings numbers might not be directly used to extrapolate the annual energy savings. 2) Due to the needs for separate control and metering of the small-scale demonstrator within a large building, the HVAC system, hence the corresponding savings, did not represent a typical energy code-compliant design. 3) The light level in the control case was regulated at a particular setpoint, which was lower than then the full-on light level in the base case, and the savings resulted from tuning down the light level to the setpoint was not attributable to the contribution of the developed technology. The testbed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, CA) specifically focused on glare control integration, and has demonstrated the feasibility and capability of the glare detection and prevention technique. While the short one-month test in this testbed provided a functional indication of the developed technology, and it would require at least a full solstice-to-solstice cycle to ruinously quantify the performance, which was not possible within the project timeframe. There are certain limitations inherited from the operational assumptions, which could potentially affect the effectiveness and applicability of the developed control technologies. The system takes a typical ceiling-mounting approach for the photosensor locations, and therefore, the control performance relies on proper commissioning or the built-in intelligence of the photosensor for pertinent task light level estimations. For spaces where daylight penetration diminishes significantly deeper into the zone, certain modification to the control algorithms is required to accommodate multiple lighting control subzones and the corresponding sensors for providing a more uniform light level across the entire zone. Integrated control of visual and thermal comfort requires the lighting control zone and thermal control zone to coincide with each other. In other words, the area illuminated by a lighting circuit needs to be the same area served by the thermostat. Thus, the original zoning will potentially constrain the applicability of this technology in retrofitting projects. This project demonstrated the technical feasibility of a zone-based integrated control technology. From the simulation results and testbed implementations, up to 60% lighting energy savings in daylit areas relative to a “no-controls” case can easily be achieved. A 20% reduction of whole building energy consumption is also attainable. In the aspect of occupant comfort, the testbed demonstrated the ability to maintain specified light level on the workplane while promptly mitigate daylight glare 90% of the time. The control system also managed to maintain the thermal environment at a comfortable level 90% of the time. The aspect of system scalability was guaranteed by the system architecture design, based on which the testbeds were instantiated. Analysis on the aspect of economic benefit has yielded an about 6-year payback time for a medium-sized building, including the installation of all hardware and software, such as motorized blinds and LED luminaires. The payback time can be significantly reduced if part of the hardware is already in place for retrofitting projects. It needs to be noted that since the payback analysis was partly based on the testbed performance results, it is constrained by the caveats associated with the testbed implementations. The main uncertainty lies in the contribution from the space conditioning energy savings as it was non-trivial to realistically configure a room-size HVAC system for directly extrapolating whole-building HVAC energy savings. It is recommended to further evaluate the developed technology at a larger scale, where the lighting and HVAC energy consumption can be realistically measured at the building level, to more rigorously quantify the performance potentials.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land

Arctic sea-ice retreat has been linked to increased winter precipitation and heavy snowfall over land, likely due to a combination of enhanced evaporation from ice-free Arctic marginal seas (AMS) and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, their relative roles and contributions remain uncertain. Here, we show that a greater proportion of AMS evaporative moisture reached high-latitude land during the cold seasons from 1980–1989 to 2012–2021. Atmospheric circulation changes added an additional 13 % increase in the AMS moisture contribution, accounting for 11 % of the total increase in AMS-sourced land precipitation. Notably, 46 % of the increase in AMS-sourced extreme snowfall is attributed to circulation-driven landward moisture transport, representing an 84 % increase beyond the effect of enhanced AMS evaporation alone. Further analysis indicates that both the rise in Arctic moisture and the atmospheric circulation shifts are primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing. These findings highlight how atmospheric circulation changes amplify extreme snowfall fueled by AMS evaporation, underscoring the synergistic effects of Arctic sea ice loss and circulation change on high-latitude winter precipitation.

Anthropogenic forcing↗
DOE OSTI2013

Remote sensing of freeze-thaw transitions in Arctic soils using the complex resistivity method

Our ability to monitor freeze - thaw transitions is critical to developing a predictive understanding of biogeochemical transitions and carbon dynamics in high latitude environments. In this study, we conducted laboratory column experiments to explore the potential of the complex resistivity method for monitoring the freeze - thaw transitions of the arctic permafrost soils. Samples for the experiment were collected from the upper active layer of Gelisol soils at the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow Alaska. Freeze - thaw transitions were induced through exposing the soil column to controlled temperature environments at 4 C and -20 C. Complex resistivity and temperature measurements were collected regularly during the freeze - thaw transitions using electrodes and temperature sensors installed along the column. During the experiments, over two orders of magnitude of resistivity variations were observed when the temperature was increased or decreased between -20 C and 0 C. Smaller resistivity variations were also observed during the isothermal thawing or freezing processes that occurred near 0 C. Single frequency electrical phase response and imaginary conductivity at 1 Hz were found to be exclusively related to the unfrozen water in the soil matrix, suggesting that these geophysical 24 attributes can be used as a proxy for the monitoring of the onset and progression of the freeze - thaw transitions. Spectral electrical responses and fitted Cole Cole parameters contained additional information about the freeze - thaw transition affected by the soil grain size distribution. Specifically, a shift of the observed spectral response to lower frequency was observed during isothermal thawing process, which we interpret to be due to sequential thawing, first from fine then to coarse particles within the soil matrix. Our study demonstrates the potential of the complex resistivity method for remote monitoring of freeze - thaw transitions in arctic soils. Although conducted at the laboratory scale, this study provides the foundation for exploring the potential of the complex resistivity signals for monitoring spatiotemporal variations of freeze - thaw transitions over field-relevant scales.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Evaluation of Antarctica as a Calibration Target for Passive Microwave Satellite Missions

Passive microwave remote sensing at L-band (1.4 GHz) is sensitive to soil moisture and sea surface salinity, both important climate variables. Science studies involving these variables can now take advantage of new satellite L-band observations. The first mission with regular global passive microwave observations at L-band is the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), launched November, 2009. A second mission, NASA's Aquarius, was launched June, 201l. A third mission, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) is scheduled to launch in 2014. Together, these three missions may provide a decade-long data record -- provided that they are intercalibrated. The intercalibration is best performed at the radiance (brightness temperature) level, and Antarctica is proving to be a key calibration target. However, Antarctica has thus far not been fully characterized as a potential target. This paper will present evaluations of Antarctica as a microwave calibration target for the above satellite missions. Preliminary analyses have identified likely target areas, such as the vicinity of Dome-C and larger areas within East Antarctica. Physical sources of temporal and spatial variability of polar firn are key to assessing calibration uncertainty. These sources include spatial variability of accumulation rate, compaction, surface characteristics (dunes, micro-topography), wind patterns, and vertical profiles of density and temperature. Using primarily SMOS data, variability is being empirically characterized and attempts are being made to attribute observed variability to physical sources. One expected outcome of these studies is the potential discovery of techniques for remotely sensing--over all of Antarctica--parameters such as surface temperature.

Kim, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2015

Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

Aerosol activation into cloud droplets is an important process that governs aerosol indirect effects. The advanced treatment of aerosol activation by Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) and its recent updates, collectively called the FN series, have been incorporated into a newly developed regional coupled climate-air quality model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (WRF-CAM5) to simulate aerosol-cloud interactions in both resolved and convective clouds. The model is applied to East Asia for two full years of 2005 and 2010. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed for model predictions of meteorological, radiative, and cloud variables, chemical concentrations, and column mass abundances against satellite data and surface observations from air quality monitoring sites across East Asia. The model performs overall well for major meteorological variables including near-surface temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitable water, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and column mass abundances of CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , HCHO, and O 3 in terms of both magnitudes and spatial distributions. Larger biases exist in the predictions of surface concentrations of CO and NO x at all sites and SO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 concentrations at some sites, aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei over ocean, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud liquid and ice water path, and cloud optical thickness. Compared with the default Abdul-Razzack Ghan (2000) parameterization, simulations with the FN series produce ~107–113% higher CDNC, with half of the difference attributable to the higher aerosol activation fraction by the FN series and the remaining half due to feedbacks in subsequent cloud microphysical processes. With the higher CDNC, the FN series are more skillful in simulating cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, downward shortwave radiation, shortwave cloud forcing, and precipitation. Here, the model evaluation identifies several areas of improvements including emissions and their vertical allocation as well as model formulations such as aerosol formation, cloud droplet nucleation, and ice nucleation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivity of Surface Temperature to Oceanic Forcing via q -Flux Green’s Function Experiments. Part I: Linear Response Function

This paper explores the use of the linear response function (LRF) to relate the mean sea surface temperature (SST) response to prescribed ocean heat convergence ( q flux) forcings. Two methods for constructing the LRF based on the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) and Green’s function (GRF) are examined. A 900-yr preindustrial simulation by the Community Earth System Model coupled with a slab ocean model (CESM–SOM) is used to estimate the LRF using FDT. For GRF, 106 pairs of CESM–SOM simulations with warm and cold q-flux patches are performed. FDT is found to have some skill in estimating the SST response to a q-flux forcing when the local SST response is strong, but it fails in inverse estimation of the q-flux forcing for a given SST pattern. In contrast, GRF is shown to be reasonably accurate in estimating both SST response and q-flux forcing. Possible degradation in FDT may be attributed to insufficient data sampling, significant departure of the SST distribution from Gaussianity, and the nonnormality of the constructed operator. The GRF-based LRF is then used to (i) generate a global surface temperature sensitivity map that shows the q-flux forcing in higher latitudes to be 3–4 times more effective than low latitudes in producing global surface warming, and (ii) identify the most excitable SST mode (neutral vector) that shows marked resemblance to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). The latter discovery suggests that the IPO-like fluctuation exists in the absence of the coupling to the ocean dynamics. Coupling to the ocean dynamics in CESM, on the other hand, only enhances the spectral power of the IPO at interannual time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Evaluation of Antarctica as a Calibration Target for Passive Microwave Satellite Missions with Climate Data Record Applications

Passive microwave remote sensing at L-band (1.4 GHz) is sensitive to soil moisture and sea surface salinity, both important climate variables. Science studies involving these variables can now take advantage of new satellite L-band observations. The first mission with regular global passive microwave observations at L-band is the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), launched November, 2009. A second mission, NASA's Aquarius, was launched June, 201 I. A third mission, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) is scheduled to launch in 2014. Together, these three missions may provide a decade-long data record-provided that they are intercalibrated. The intercalibration is best performed at the radiance (brightness temperature) level, and Antarctica is proving to be a key calibration target. However, Antarctica has thus far not been fully characterized as a potential target. This paper will present evaluations of Antarctica as a microwave calibration target for the above satellite missions. Preliminary analyses have identified likely target areas, such as the vicinity of Dome-C and larger areas within East Antarctica. Physical sources of temporal and spatial variability of polar firn are key to assessing calibration uncertainty. These sources include spatial variability of accumulation rate, compaction, surface characteristics (dunes, micro-topography), wind patterns, and vertical profiles of density and temperature. Using primarily SMOS data, variability is being empirically characterized and attempts are being made to attribute observed variability to physical sources. One expected outcome of these studies is the potential discovery of techniques for remotely sensing--over all of Antarctica-parameters such as surface temperature.

Kim, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Geology of the Pluto System

NASA's New Horizons mission acquired a large set of images and other data making possible thorough geological analysis of landscapes in the Pluto System. Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic investigation, modelling and mapping revealed that much of Pluto's surface is attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required long periods of internal heating, such as Pluto's extensive tectonic fabric. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planitia are thought to be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. The prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planitia, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. These multi-km-high mound features might be cryo-volcanoes. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. East of Sputnik Planitia are large fields of aligned ranks of sharp-crested ridges found only at high altitude that are apparently composed of massive deposits of CH4 ice, referred to as Bladed Terrain. New Horizons found evidence that Bladed Terrain may cover much of Pluto's low latitudes and may have originally formed there as a consequence of Pluto's very high obliquity. Currently Bladed Terrain is undergoing net erosion. This observation, along with evidence for formally more extensive nitrogen glaciation implies that Pluto undergoes significant climate evolution. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, J. M.↗