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DOE OSTI2018

A Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) using GHI measurements and a cloud retrieval technique

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Here, we introduce a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposes the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle are accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique is used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction are predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-min exponential weighted moving average, respectively. Our model evaluation using the long-term observations of GHI at NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the PSPI has a better performance than the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 min, which is more significant in cloudy-sky conditions. Finally, compared to the persistence and smart persistence models, the PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters but is customizable in that additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the GHI forecast. An advanced technology of cloud forecast is also expected to improve the future performance of the PSPI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Let’s Unleash the Network Judgment: A Self-Supervised Approach for Cloud Image Analysis

Accurate cloud type identification and coverage analysis are crucial in understanding the Earth’s radiative budget. Traditional computer vision methods rely on low-level visual features of clouds for estimating cloud coverage or sky conditions. Several handcrafted approaches have been proposed; however, scope for improvement still exists. Newer deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated superior performance for cloud segmentation and categorization. These methods, however, need expert engineering intervention in the preprocessing steps—in the traditional methods—or human assistance in assigning cloud or clear sky labels to a pixel for training DNNs. Such human mediation imposes considerable time and labor costs. We present the application of a new self-supervised learning approach to autonomously extract relevant features from sky images captured by ground-based cameras, for the classification and segmentation of clouds. We evaluate a joint embedding architecture that uses self-knowledge distillation plus regularization. We use two datasets to demonstrate the network’s ability to classify and segment sky images—one with ~85,000 images collected from our ground-based camera and another with 400 labeled images from the WSISEG database. We find that this approach can discriminate full-sky images based on cloud coverage, diurnal variation, and cloud base height. Additionally, it semantically segments the cloud areas without labels. The approach shows competitive performance in all tested tasks, suggesting a new alternative for cloud characterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraints on the Profiles of Total Water PDF in AGCMs from AIRS and a High-Resolution Model

Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) cloud parameterizations generally include an assumption about the subgrid-scale probability distribution function (PDF) of total water and its vertical profile. In the present study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) monthly-mean cloud amount and relative humidity fields are used to compute a proxy for the second moment of an AGCM total water PDF called the RH01 diagnostic, which is the AIRS mean relative humidity for cloud fractions of 0.1 or less. The dependence of the second moment on horizontal grid resolution is analyzed using results from a high-resolution global model simulation.The AIRS-derived RH01 diagnostic is generally larger near the surface than aloft, indicating a narrower PDF near the surface, and varies with the type of underlying surface. High-resolution model results show that the vertical structure of profiles of the AGCM PDF second moment is unchanged as the grid resolution changes from 200 to 100 to 50 km, and that the second-moment profiles shift toward higher values with decreasing grid spacing.Several Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), AGCM simulations were performed with several choices for the profile of the PDF second moment. The resulting cloud and relative humidity fields were shown to be quite sensitive to the prescribed profile, and the use of a profile based on the AIRS-derived proxy results in improvements relative to observational estimates. The AIRS-guided total water PDF profiles, including their dependence on underlying surface type and on horizontal resolution, have been implemented in the version of the GEOS-5 AGCM used for publicly released simulations.

Molod, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS1989

The structure of the clouds distributed operating system

A novel system architecture, based on the object model, is the central structuring concept used in the Clouds distributed operating system. This architecture makes Clouds attractive over a wide class of machines and environments. Clouds is a native operating system, designed and implemented at Georgia Tech. and runs on a set of generated purpose computers connected via a local area network. The system architecture of Clouds is composed of a system-wide global set of persistent (long-lived) virtual address spaces, called objects that contain persistent data and code. The object concept is implemented at the operating system level, thus presenting a single level storage view to the user. Lightweight treads carry computational activity through the code stored in the objects. The persistent objects and threads gives rise to a programming environment composed of shared permanent memory, dispensing with the need for hardware-derived concepts such as the file systems and message systems. Though the hardware may be distributed and may have disks and networks, the Clouds provides the applications with a logically centralized system, based on a shared, structured, single level store. The current design of Clouds uses a minimalist philosophy with respect to both the kernel and the operating system. That is, the kernel and the operating system support a bare minimum of functionality. Clouds also adheres to the concept of separation of policy and mechanism. Most low-level operating system services are implemented above the kernel and most high level services are implemented at the user level. From the measured performance of using the kernel mechanisms, we are able to demonstrate that efficient implementations are feasible for the object model on commercially available hardware. Clouds provides a rich environment for conducting research in distributed systems. Some of the topics addressed in this paper include distributed programming environments, consistency of persistent data and fault-tolerance.

Dasgupta, Partha↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Generation High Performance Computing Center (FG-HPCC): RFI Technical Considerations

Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) is interested in receiving information about technologies that could be available in the 2029-2030 timeframe that may serve to enable the vision for a Future Generation High Performance Computing (HPC) Center (FG-HPCC) described in this document. The future HPC Center vision has been conceived to meet the future mission needs of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program within the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). LLNS envisions a center composed not of many independent clusters, but of heterogeneous elements accessible to users as a single system. The capabilities will be integrated to create a scalable, flexible, yet tightly coupled computing center capable of integrated HPC, AI, and cloud-like workloads.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating the Transport and Rupture of Pollen in the Atmosphere

Pollen, one type of primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP), is emitted from the terrestrial biosphere and can undergo physical changes in the atmosphere via particle rupture. To examine the fate of pollen and its atmospheric processing, a pollen emission and transport scheme is coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We simulate the emission of pollen and its impacts on the cloud properties and precipitation in the Southern Great Plains from 12 to 19 April 2013, a period with both high pollen emissions and convective activity. We conduct a suite of ensemble runs that simulate primary pollen and three different pollen rupture mechanisms that generate subpollen particles, including (a) high humidity-induced surface rupture, (b) high humidity-induced in-atmosphere plus surface rupture, and (c) lightning-induced rupture, where in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes trigger pollen rupture events. When relative humidity is high (>80%), coarse primary pollen (~1 μg m –3 ) is converted into fine subpollen particles (~1.2e –4 μg m –3 ), which produces 80% more subpollen particles than lightning-induced rupture. The in-atmosphere humidity-driven rupture predominantly produces subpollen particles, which is further enhanced during a frontal thunderstorm. During strong convection, vertical updrafts lift primary pollen and subpollen particles (~0.5e –4 μg m –3 ) to the upper troposphere (~12 km) and laterally transports the ruptured pollen in the anvil top outflow. In regions of high pollen and strong convection, ruptured pollen can influence warm cloud formation by decreasing low cloud (<4 km) cloud water mixing ratios and increasing ice phase hydrometeors aloft (>10 km)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Automated Propellant Blending

An automated propellant blending apparatus and method uses closely metered addition of countersolvent to a binder solution with propellant particles dispersed therein to precisely control binder precipitation and particle aggregation. A profile of binder precipitation versus countersolvent-solvent ratio is established empirically and used in a computer algorithm to establish countersolvent addition parameters near the cloud point for controlling the transition of properties of the binder during agglomeration and finishing of the propellant composition particles. The system is remotely operated by computer for safety, reliability and improved product properties, and also increases product output.

Hohmann, Carl W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Automated Propellant Blending

An automated propellant blending apparatus and method that uses closely metered addition of countersolvent to a binder solution with propellant particles dispersed therein to precisely control binder precipitation and particle aggregation is discussed. A profile of binder precipitation versus countersolvent-solvent ratio is established empirically and used in a computer algorithm to establish countersolvent addition parameters near the cloud point for controlling the transition of properties of the binder during agglomeration and finishing of the propellant composition particles. The system is remotely operated by computer for safety, reliability and improved product properties, and also increases product output.

Hohmann, Carl W.↗

DOE OSTI2015

CHOLLA: A NEW MASSIVELY PARALLEL HYDRODYNAMICS CODE FOR ASTROPHYSICAL SIMULATION

We present Computational Hydrodynamics On ParaLLel Architectures (Cholla ), a new three-dimensional hydrodynamics code that harnesses the power of graphics processing units (GPUs) to accelerate astrophysical simulations. Cholla models the Euler equations on a static mesh using state-of-the-art techniques, including the unsplit Corner Transport Upwind algorithm, a variety of exact and approximate Riemann solvers, and multiple spatial reconstruction techniques including the piecewise parabolic method (PPM). Using GPUs, Cholla evolves the fluid properties of thousands of cells simultaneously and can update over 10 million cells per GPU-second while using an exact Riemann solver and PPM reconstruction. Owing to the massively parallel architecture of GPUs and the design of the Cholla code, astrophysical simulations with physically interesting grid resolutions (≳256{sup 3}) can easily be computed on a single device. We use the Message Passing Interface library to extend calculations onto multiple devices and demonstrate nearly ideal scaling beyond 64 GPUs. A suite of test problems highlights the physical accuracy of our modeling and provides a useful comparison to other codes. We then use Cholla to simulate the interaction of a shock wave with a gas cloud in the interstellar medium, showing that the evolution of the cloud is highly dependent on its density structure. We reconcile the computed mixing time of a turbulent cloud with a realistic density distribution destroyed by a strong shock with the existing analytic theory for spherical cloud destruction by describing the system in terms of its median gas density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MSD CoP Webinar: "Advances in MSD-LIVE to Support the MSD Community of Practice"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Advances in MSD-LIVE to Support the MSD Community of Practice Presenters: Casey Burleyson and Zoe Guillen (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Abstract: The MultiSector Dynamics Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment (MSD-LIVE; msdlive.org) is a cloud-based data management system and advanced computing platform that enables MSD researchers to document and archive their data, run their models and analysis tools, and share their data, software, and workflows within the MSD Community of Practice. Recently, several high-profile datasets have attracted many new users to MSD-LIVE. This webinar has two goals: 1) To refamiliarize the MSD community and new users with the components of the platform (e.g., the data repository, model training notebooks, and data dashboards) and to highlight examples of how these components are advancing MSD science and 2) To demonstrate new features in v3 of the platform, released in late 2025. The main new feature in v3 is the ability to interactively explore data in MSD-LIVE without downloading it. MSD-LIVE users can now click a button in our data repository and launch a blank Jupyter notebook with access to the underlying data on AWS. Users can use the notebook to write analysis, visualization, or subsetting routines that process the data directly on the AWS cloud. We also added a GitHub integration feature that allows users to share analysis or visualization code they develop with the community of MSD-LIVE users. The webinar will wrap up with a look at what's coming next for MSD-LIVE in 2026. Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: May 12th, 2026 from 1-2 PM EST.

Open Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Workflows Community Summit: Tightening the Integration between Computing Facilities and Scientific Workflows

Scientific workflows are used almost universally across science domains for solving complex and largescale computing and data analysis problems. The importance of workflows is highlighted by the fact that they have underpinned some of the most significant discoveries of the past decades. Many of these workflows have significant computational, storage, and communication demands, and thus must execute on a range of large-scale computer systems, from local clusters to public clouds and upcoming exascale HPC platforms. Managing these executions is often a significant undertaking, requiring a sophisticated and versatile software infrastructure. Historically, infrastructures for workflow execution consisted of complex, integrated systems, developed in-house by workflow practitioners with strong dependencies on a range of legacy technologies—even including sets of ad hoc scripts. Due to the increasing need to support workflows, dedicated workflow systems were developed to provide abstractions for creating, executing, and adapting workflows conveniently and efficiently while ensuring portability. While these efforts are all worthwhile individually, there are now hundreds of independent workflow systems. These workflow systems are created and used by thousands of researchers and developers, leading to a rapidly growing corpus of workflows research publications. The resulting workflow system technology landscape is fragmented, which may present significant barriers for future workflow users due to many seemingly comparable, yet usually mutually incompatible, systems that exist. In order to tackle some of the challenges described above, the DOE-funded ExaWorks and NSF-funded WorkflowsRI projects have organized in 2021 a series of events entitled the “Workflows Community Summit”. The third edition of the “Workflows Community Summit” explored workflows challenges and opportunities from the perspective of computing centers and facilities. This third summit builds on two prior summits (https://workflowsri.org/summits) that (i) established a high level vision for workflows research; and (ii) explored technical approaches for realizing that vision. The third summit brought together a small group of facilities representatives with the aim to understand how workflows are currently being used at each facility, how facilities would like to interact with workflow developers and users, how workflows fit with facility roadmaps, and what opportunities there are for tighter integration between facilities and workflows. This report documents and organizes the wealth of information provided by the participants before, during, and after the summit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1995

Application of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo to Satellite Contamination Studies

A novel method is presented to estimate contaminant levels around spacecraft and satellites of arbitrarily complex geometry. The method uses a three-dimensional direct simulation Monte Carlo algorithm to characterize the contaminant cloud surrounding the space platform, and a computer-assisted design preprocessor to define the space-platform geometry. The method is applied to the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite to estimate the contaminant flux incident on the optics of the halogen occultation experiment (HALOE) telescope. Results are presented in terms of contaminant cloud structure, molecular velocity distribution at HALOE aperture, and code performance.

Rault, Didier F. G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Orograph and Parallax Corrections on High Resolution Geostationary Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Flash Flood Applications

The current generation of geosynchronous satellites exhibits considerably improved capabilities in the area of resolution, gridding accuracy, and sampling frequency as compared to their predecessors. These improvements have made it possible to accurately observe the life cycle of small scale, short-live phenomenon like rapidly developing thunderstorms, at a very high spatial and temporal resolutions. While the gain in the improved resolution is not significant for synoptic scale cloud systems, it plays a major role on the computation of precipitation values for mesoscale and stonn scale systems. Two of the important factor on the accurate precision of precipitation from satellite imagery are the position of the cloud tops as viewed by the satellite and the influence of orographic effects on the distribution of precipitation. The first problem has to do with the fact that the accurate estimation of precipitation from data collected by a satellite in geosynchronous orbit requires the knowledge of the exact position of the cloud tops with respect to the ground below. This is not a problem when a cloud is located directly below the satellite; at large viewing angles the geographic coordinates on satellite images are dependent on cloud heights and distance from the sub-satellite point. The latitude and longitude coordinates for high convective cloud tops are displaced away from the sub-satellite point and may be shifted by as much as 20 Km from the sea level coordinates. The second problem has to do with the variations in rainfall distribution with elevation. Ground observations have shown that precipitation amounts tend to increase with height and that the slope of the hill or mountain that is facing the prevailing wind normally receives greater rainfall then do the lee slopes. The purpose of the study is to show the recent developments at the Office of Research and Applications (ORA) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/NESDIS) in Camp Springs, MD, USA, to adjust any satellite rainfall estimation technique and account for orographic and parallax corrections. Description and examples of the procedure applied to the current NOAA/NESDIS experimental satellite rainfall estimation technique for flash flood applications will be presented at the conference.

Vicente, Gilberto A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus cloud model parameterizations: Incorporating realistic ice particle generation

Recent cirrus cloud modeling studies have involved the application of a time-dependent, two dimensional Eulerian model, with generalized cloud microphysical parameterizations drawn from experimental findings. For computing the ice versus vapor phase changes, the ice mass content is linked to the maintenance of a relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) of 105 percent; ice growth occurs both with regard to the introduction of new particles and the growth of existing particles. In a simplified cloud model designed to investigate the basic role of various physical processes in the growth and maintenance of cirrus clouds, these parametric relations are justifiable. In comparison, the one dimensional cloud microphysical model recently applied to evaluating the nucleation and growth of ice crystals in cirrus clouds explicitly treated populations of haze and cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Although these two modeling approaches are clearly incompatible, the goal of the present numerical study is to develop a parametric treatment of new ice particle generation, on the basis of detailed microphysical model findings, for incorporation into improved cirrus growth models. For example, the relation between temperature and the relative humidity required to generate ice crystals from ammonium sulfate haze droplets, whose probability of freezing through the homogeneous nucleation mode are a combined function of time and droplet molality, volume, and temperature. As an example of this approach, the results of cloud microphysical simulations are presented showing the rather narrow domain in the temperature/humidity field where new ice crystals can be generated. The microphysical simulations point out the need for detailed CCN studies at cirrus altitudes and haze droplet measurements within cirrus clouds, but also suggest that a relatively simple treatment of ice particle generation, which includes cloud chemistry, can be incorporated into cirrus cloud growth.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Web-based Visualization and Analytics of Petascale Data: Equity as a Tide that Lifts All Boats

Scientists generate petabytes of data daily to help uncover environmental trends or behaviors that are hard to predict. For example, understanding climate simulations based on the long-term average of temperature, precipitation, and other environmental variables is essential to predicting and establishing root causes of future undesirable scenarios and assessing possible mitigation strategies. While supercomputer centers provide a powerful infrastructure for generating petabytes of simulation output, accessing and analyzing these datasets interactively remains challenging on multiple fronts. This paper presents an approach to managing, visualizing, and analyzing petabytes of data within a browser on equipment ranging from the top NASA supercomputer to commodity hardware like a laptop. Our novel data fabric abstraction layer allows user-friendly querying of scientific information while hid-ing the complexities of dealing with file systems or cloud services.We also optimize network utilization while streaming from petas-cale repositories through state-of-the-art progressive compression algorithms. Based on this abstraction, we provide customizable dashboards that can be accessed from any device with any inter-net connection, enabling interactive visual analysis of vast amounts of data to a wide range of users - from top scientists with access to leadership-class computing environments to undergraduate students of disadvantaged backgrounds from minority-serving institutions. We focus on NASA’s use of petascale climate datasets as an example of particular societal impact and, therefore, a case where achieving equity in science participation is critical. We validate our approach by improving the ability of climate scientists to visually explore their data via two fully interactive dashboards. We further validate our approach by deploying the dashboards and simplified training materials in the classroom at a minority-serving institution.These dashboards, released in simplified form to the general public, contribute significantly to a broader push to democratize the access and use of climate data.

Data visualization↗

NASA NTRS2026

Hydrology Copilot: A Cloud-Native Ai System for Hydrological Data Analysis

The emergence of AI-driven Earth observation systems promises to broaden access to petabyte-scale geospatial data beyond domain specialists. However, translating this vision into operational scientific infrastructure requires addressing fundamental challenges in data virtualization, code transparency, and domain-specific reasoning. We present Hydrology Copilot, a cloud-native AI framework for natural-language-driven analysis of Earth observation data. To demonstrate operational capabilities at scale, we implement the system using NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3), which provides surface meteorological forcing and land-surface model output across North and Central America at 1-km resolution, from which drought diagnostics are derived. The system integrates five core contributions: (1) scalable data virtualization using Kerchunk-based cloud optimized access, achieving a 1.5 to 4.6 times improvement in I/O latency across benchmark queries spanning regional single-day extractions (4.6 times speedup) to continental monthly aggregations (1.5 times speedup); (2) transparent code generation through Microsoft Azure AI Foundry agents that expose executable Python workflows for scientific verification; (3) persistent conversational memory enabling multi-turn analytical discourse across sessions; (4) intelligent query validation that enforces dataset boundaries and resolves ambiguous requests before execution; and (5) a multi-agent architecture coordinating query parsing, code generation, and visualization. We evaluate the system through drought-monitoring workflows, demonstrating reliable code generation, accurate results validated against reference computations and the operational U.S. Drought Monitor, and efficient operation across increasingly complex tasks. By bridging natural-language interfaces with rigorous hydrological analysis, Hydrology Copilot advances beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations to provide a deployable framework for operational Earth science applications.

Data virtualization↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Radiative Transfer at Reduced Spectral Resolution in Large‐Eddy Simulations of Convective Clouds

Abstract Many radiative transfer schemes approximate the spectral integration over ∼10 5 to ∼10 6 wavelengths with correlated k ‐distributions methods that typically require only 10 1 –10 2 spectral integration points ( g ‐points). The exact number of g ‐points is then chosen as an optimal balance between computational costs and accuracy, normally assessed in terms of a number of radiative quantities. How this radiative accuracy propagates to simulation accuracy, however, is not straightforward. In this study, we therefore explore the sensitivity of cloud properties in large‐eddy simulations (LES) to the accuracy of radiative fluxes and heating rates. We first generate smaller sets of g ‐points from existing k ‐distributions by repeatedly combining adjacent g ‐points while maintaining the highest possible accuracy on a chosen set of radiative metrics. Next, we perform three sets of LES with varying cloud—radiation coupling pathways, and therefore different requirements for the accuracy of the radiative transfer computations, to investigate how these smaller and thus less accurate k ‐distributions affect simulation characteristics. The decrease in radiative accuracy with 3–4 times smaller k ‐distributions results in biases in cloud properties that are relative small compared to their temporal fluctuations. These results show potential for speeding up radiative transfer computations in cloud‐resolving models by reducing the resolved spectral detail. However, more statistically converged simulations and a wider set of case studies is required to fully assess the robustness of our results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2015

Web-Based Computational Model Builder for Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling & Simulation (Phase I Final Report)

Today, the importance of nuclear power in the US is a geopolitical matter as much as it is an economic one. This is due to the notion that increasing the use of nuclear power reduces the US's reliance on imported oil and gas. In order to design future systems and continue operational improvements at existing US plants, advanced modeling and simulation of nuclear power reactors is crucial. A variety of challenges exist to using advanced modeling and simulation in practice, especially for the nuclear energy community and other organizations with fewer computational resources and limited expertise. There is an increasing need of access to highly capable compute, data, and software resources from network systems, which are becoming more administratively restricted from access through installation of traditional client-server applications. The nuclear energy community is not capable of maintaining exponential growth of computing capability and data storage coupled with the necessary end-to-end network bandwidth improvements. Applications that provide higher fidelity with increased physics and decreased assumptions, by their very nature, require more and more computational resources. We believe Web-based, Cloud-enabled, end-to-end simulation software for nuclear energy advanced modeling and simulation to be the solution to these challenges.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗