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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Recent Developments in Hydrogeologic Applications for Strain Tensor Analyses

Changes in fluid pressure deform porous media and this effect occurs in a variety of hydrogeologic processes, from the change in storage during pumping or injection to fluctuations in water levels caused by barometric pressure. We have developed instruments for measuring small strains in porous media, and we have used the resulting strain data to evaluate well testing, hydraulic fracturing, manual loading at the ground surface, and ambient hydrologic processes, like rainfall and evaporation. A particularly important application is the use of strain tensor data measured at shallow depths to analyze well tests or hydraulic fractures conducted at much greater depths. An early demonstration of this technique was conducted at the North Avant Field north of Tulsa, Oklahoma, where Pennsylvanian sandstone creates a confined aquifer and oil reservoir at a depth of 530m. We have showed that the strains caused by injecting into the aquifer could be measured at a depth of 30m and used to evaluate the properties of the aquifer. We recently expanded the array of strainmeters at the North Avant Field by deploying three more instruments at shallow depth (30m) along with a deep instrument at 520m depth in the winter, 2021. The deep instrument is deployed in shale caprock slightly above the aquifer. To our knowledge, the deep strainmeter at the North Avant Field is the deepest strainmeter ever deployed and this required refining methods originally developed for shallow deployments. The instrument was lowered to depth on oil field tubing and cemented in place using techniques and materials developed for use in oil wells. Optical fiber used to communicate with the instrument was cemented in the annulus on the outside of tubing. This is significant because the techniques we used could readily be extended to greater depth, suggesting that strainmeters can be deployed over a wide range of depths for monitoring critical subsurface processes. For example, it suggests that strainmeters could be deployed through the caprock to monitor for leaks from underlying CO2 storage reservoirs. The strainmeter array at the North Avant Field has been used to characterize deformation during a series of injection tests in the spring and summer, 2021. All the new strainmeters respond to pumping, and the strainmeters we installed earlier also responded. To our knowledge, this is the first application of well testing in a deep aquifer that was monitored by an array of strainmeters—our earlier work used strainmeters at a single location. We are currently analyzing the strain data using an analytical solution, a proxy-based Bayesian inversion algorithm, and other methods. Strainmeter data has also been used to characterize periodic pumping tests by us and Riley Blais. A periodically varying pumping rate causes both hydraulic head and strain signals that vary with the same period as the pumping. The peaks and troughs of the head in monitoring wells lag behind the peaks and troughs of the head in the pumping well, and this lag time increases with distance from the pumping well. The lag time of the pressure and the distance to the monitoring well can be used in a simple analysis to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer. The lag time determined from strain data can be used to estimate aquifer properties using the same analysis that works for the pressure only for strain data measured at particular locations. That is because the strain field in a confining unit advances upward, laterally and then downward even though the pressure in the underlying aquifer only advances laterally, according to our recent simulations. We have field data showing that a small periodic signal superimposed on an injection rate at the North Avant Field will create a periodic strain signal at shallow strainmeters. The field data and the recent simulations suggest that including a periodic component to injection or pumping and then monitoring the resulting strain signal could be a way to monitor the subsurface.

Murdoch, Larry↗

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Simple Demonstration of Concrete Structural Health Monitoring Framework

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Structural health monitoring of concrete structures aims to understand the current health condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements to produce high confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity that supports operational and maintenance decisions. This ongoing research project is seeking to develop a probabilistic framework for health diagnosis and prognosis of aging concrete structures in a nuclear power plant subjected to physical, chemical, environment, and mechanical degradation. The proposed framework consists of four elements—damage modeling, monitoring, data analytics, and uncertainty quantification. This report describes a proof-of-concept example on a small concrete slab subjected to a freeze-thaw experiment that explores techniques in each of the four elements of the framework and their integration. An experimental set-up at Vanderbilt University’s Laboratory for Systems Integrity and Reliability is used to research effective combination of full-field techniques that include infrared thermography, digital image correlation, and ultrasonic measurement. The measured data are linked to the probabilistic framework: the thermography, digital image correlation data, and ultrasonic measurement data are used for Bayesian calibration of model parameters, for diagnosis of damage, and for prognosis of future damage. The proof-of-concept demonstration presented in this report highlights the significance of each element of the framework and their integration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Coexistent Quantum Channel Characterization Using Spectrally Resolved Bayesian Quantum Process Tomography

The coexistence of quantum and classical signals over the same optical fiber with minimal degradation of the transmitted quantum information is critical for operating large-scale quantum networks over the existing communications infrastructure. In this work, we systematically characterize the quantum channel that results from simultaneously distributing approximate single-photon polarization-encoded qubits and classical light of varying intensities through fiber-optic channels of up to 15 km. Using spectrally resolved quantum process tomography with a Bayesian reconstruction method that we develop, we estimate the full quantum channel from experimental photon counting data, both with and without classical background. Furthermore, although we find the exact channel description to be a weak function of the pump polarization, we nevertheless show that the coexistent fiber-based quantum channel has high process fidelity with an ideal depolarizing channel when the noise is dominated by Raman scattering. These results provide a basis for the future development of quantum repeater designs and quantum error-correcting codes for real-world channels and inform models used in the analysis and simulation of quantum networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Binning is Sinning: Redemption for Hubble Diagram Using Photometrically Classified Type Ia Supernovae

Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) is implemented in the BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) framework to produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram (HD) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). BBC corrects for selection effects and non–SN Ia contamination, and systematic uncertainties are described by a covariance matrix with dimension matching the number of BBC redshift bins. For spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia samples, a recent "Binning is Sinning" article showed that an unbinned HD and covariance matrix reduces the systematic uncertainty by a factor of ~1.5 compared to the binned approach. Here we extend their analysis to obtain an unbinned HD for a photometrically identified sample processed with BBC. To test this new method, we simulate and analyze 50 samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with a low-redshift anchor; the simulation includes SNe Ia, and contaminants from core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia. The analysis includes systematic uncertainties for calibration and measures the dark energy equation of state parameter (w). Compared to a redshift-binned HD, the unbinned HD with nearly 2000 events results in a smaller systematic uncertainty, in qualitative agreement with BHS21, and averaging results among the 50 samples we find no evidence for a w-bias. To reduce computation time for fitting an unbinned HD with large samples, we propose an HD-rebinning method that defines the HD in bins of redshift, color, and stretch; the rebinned HD results in similar uncertainty as the unbinned case, and shows no evidence for a w-bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The dark energy survey 5-yr photometrically identified type Ia supernovae

ABSTRACT As part of the cosmology analysis using Type Ia Supernovae (SN Ia) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we present photometrically identified SN Ia samples using multiband light curves and host galaxy redshifts. For this analysis, we use the photometric classification framework SuperNNovatrained on realistic DES-like simulations. For reliable classification, we process the DES SN programme (DES-SN) data and introduce improvements to the classifier architecture, obtaining classification accuracies of more than 98 per cent on simulations. This is the first SN classification to make use of ensemble methods, resulting in more robust samples. Using photometry, host galaxy redshifts, and a classification probability requirement, we identify 1863 SNe Ia from which we select 1484 cosmology-grade SNe Ia spanning the redshift range of 0.07 < z < 1.14. We find good agreement between the light-curve properties of the photometrically selected sample and simulations. Additionally, we create similar SN Ia samples using two types of Bayesian Neural Network classifiers that provide uncertainties on the classification probabilities. We test the feasibility of using these uncertainties as indicators for out-of-distribution candidates and model confidence. Finally, we discuss the implications of photometric samples and classification methods for future surveys such as Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Halo-independence with quantified maximum entropy at DAMA/LIBRA

Using the DAMA/LIBRA anomaly as an example, we formalise the notion of halo-independence in the context of Bayesian statistics and quantified maximum entropy. We consider an infinite set of possible profiles, weighted by an entropic prior and constrained by a likelihood describing noisy measurements of modulated moments by DAMA/LIBRA. Assuming an isotropic dark matter (DM) profile in the galactic rest frame, we find the most plausible DM profiles and predictions for unmodulated signal rates at DAMA/LIBRA. The entropic prior contains an a priori unknown regularisation factor, β, that describes the strength of our conviction that the profile is approximately Maxwellian. By varying β, we smoothly interpolate between a halo-independent and a halo-dependent analysis, thus exploring the impact of prior information about the DM profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detecting eccentric supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: Resolvable source strategies

The couplings between supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) and their environments within galactic nuclei have been well studied as part of the search for solutions to the final parsec problem. The scattering of stars by the binary or the interaction with a circumbinary disk may efficiently drive the system to sub-parsec separations, allowing the binary to enter a regime where the emission of gravitational waves can drive it to merger within a Hubble time. However, these interactions can also affect the orbital parameters of the binary. In particular, they may drive an increase in binary eccentricity which survives until the system’s gravitational-wave (GW) signal enters the pulsar-timing array (PTA) band. Therefore, if we can measure the eccentricity from observed signals, we can potentially deduce some of the properties of the binary environment. To this end, we build on previous techniques to present a general Bayesian pipeline with which we can detect and estimate the parameters of an eccentric SMBHB system with PTAs. Additionally, we generalize the PTA F{sub e}-statistic to eccentric systems, and show that both this statistic and the Bayesian pipeline are robust when studying circular or arbitrarily eccentric systems. We explore how eccentricity influences the detection prospects of single GW sources, as well as the detection penalty incurred by employing a circular waveform template to search for eccentric signals, and conclude by identifying important avenues for future study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Find the Gap: Black Hole Population Analysis with an Astrophysically Motivated Mass Function

We introduce a novel black hole mass function that realistically models the physics of pair-instability supernovae with a minimal number of parameters. Applying this to all events in the LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 2 (GWTC-2), we detect a peak at M BHMG = 46$^{+17}_{-6}$ M ⊙ . Repeating the analysis without the black holes from the event GW190521, we find this feature at M BHMG =54± 6 M ⊙ . These results establish the edge of the anticipated "black hole mass gap" at a value compatible with the expectation from standard stellar structure theory. The mass gap manifests itself as a discontinuity in the mass function and is populated by a distinct, less-abundant population of higher-mass black holes. We find that the primary black hole population scales with power-law index -1.95 ± 0.51 (-1.97 ± 0.44) with (without) GW190521, consistent with models of star formation. Using Bayesian techniques, we establish that our mass function fits a new catalog of black hole masses approximately as well as pre-existing phenomenological mass functions. We also remark on the implications of these results for constraining or discovering new phenomena in nuclear and particle physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PyAlbany: A Python interface to the C++ multiphysics solver Albany

Albany is a parallel C++ finite element library for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper we introduce PyAlbany, a newly developed Python interface to the Albany library. PyAlbany can be used to effectively drive Albany enabling fast and easy analysis and post-processing of applications based on PDEs that are pre-implemented in Albany. PyAlbany relies on the library PyBind11 to bind Python with C++ Albany code. Here we detail the implementation of PyAlbany and showcase its capabilities through a number of examples targeting a heat-diffusion problem. In particular we consider the following: (1) the generation of samples for a Monte Carlo application, (2) a scalability study, (3) a study of parameters on the performance of a linear solver, and finally (4) a tool for performing eigenvalue decompositions of matrix-free operators for a Bayesian inference application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO 2 Flux and its Inter-Annual Variability

Drylands occupy ~40% of the land surface and are thought to dominate global carbon (C) cycle inter-annual variability (IAV). Therefore, it is imperative that global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which form the land component of IPCC earth system models, are able to accurately simulate dryland vegetation and biogeochemical processes. However, compared to more mesic ecosystems, TBMs have not been widely tested or optimized using in situ dryland CO 2 fluxes. Here, for this work, we address this gap using a Bayesian data assimilation system and 89 site-years of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 southwest US Ameriflux sites to optimize the C cycle parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The sites span high elevation forest ecosystems, which are a mean sink of C, and low elevation shrub and grass ecosystems that are either a mean C sink or “pivot” between an annual C sink and source. We find that using the default (prior) model parameters drastically underestimates both the mean annual NEE at the forested mean C sink sites and the NEE IAV across all sites. Our analysis demonstrated that optimizing phenology parameters are particularly useful in improving the model's ability to capture both the magnitude and sign of the NEE IAV. At the forest sites, optimizing C allocation, respiration, and biomass and soil C turnover parameters reduces the underestimate in simulated mean annual NEE. Our study demonstrates that all TBMs need to be calibrated for dryland ecosystems before they are used to determine dryland contributions to global C cycle variability and long-term carbon-climate feedbacks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian inference of anisotropic 2D small-angle scattering from sparse measurement

Here, we present a Bayesian inference framework for reconstructing anisotropic two-dimensional small-angle scattering (2D SAS) patterns from sparse, noisy, or partially missing data. The method combines a symmetry-aware angular basis with radial Gaussian process priors to enable accurate, training-free interpolation and denoising. Computational benchmarks demonstrate reliable recovery of both isotropic and high-order anisotropic features under severe data reduction. Experimental validations on stretched polymers, sheared wormlike micelles, and carbon fibers show improved fidelity and resolution compared to raw measurements, achieving comparable accuracy with up to 50-fold fewer detected neutrons. This approach enables quantitative structural analysis under low-flux, time-limited, or single-shot conditions, extending the applicability of 2D SAS techniques to compact neutron sources and mechanically driven soft matter systems undergoing transient structural changes.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Bayesian inference of multi-messenger astrophysical data: Joint and coherent inference of gravitational waves and kilonovae

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers can provide information on the neutron star’s equation of state (EOS) above the nuclear saturation density by directly constraining the mass-radius diagram. We present a Bayesian framework for joint and coherent analyses of multi-messenger binary neutron star signals. As a first application, we analyze the gravitational-wave GW170817 and the kilonova (kN) AT2017gfo data. These results are then combined with the most recent X-ray pulsar analyses of PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620 to obtain new EOS constraints.We extend the bajes infrastructure with a joint likelihood for multiple datasets, support for various semi-analytical kN models, and numerical-relativity (NR)-informed relations for the mass ejecta, as well as a technique to include and marginalize over modeling uncertainties. The analysis of GW170817 used the TEOBResumS effective-one-body waveform template to model the gravitational-wave signal. The analysis of AT2017gfo used a baseline multicomponent spherically symmetric model for the kN light curves. Various constraints on the mass-radius diagram and neutron star properties were then obtained by resampling over a set of ten million parameterized EOSs, which was built under minimal assumptions (general relativity and causality).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sharp detection of low-dimensional structure in probability measures via dimensional logarithmic Sobolev inequalities

Identifying low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional probability measures is an essential pre-processing step for efficient sampling. To identify this structure, we approximate the target measure as a perturbation of an arbitrary reference measure along a few directions in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$. These directions are determined by minimizing an upper bound on the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between the target and its approximation. Our contribution improves upon previous works by leveraging dimensional logarithmic Sobolev inequalities to refine the bound on the KL divergence. These inequalities lead to a uniformly tighter bound on the KL divergence, thereby enhancing the identification of the most significant perturbation directions. In particular, when the target and reference are both Gaussian, minimizing the resulting bound is equivalent to minimizing the KL divergence. We further demonstrate the applicability of this analysis to the squared Hellinger distance, where analogous reasoning shows that the dimensional Poincaré inequality offers improved bounds.

Bayesian inference↗

Retrieving Temperatures and Abundances of Exoplanet Atmospheres with High-resolution Cross-correlation Spectroscopy

High-resolution spectroscopy (R ≥ 25,000) has recently emerged as one of the leading methods for detecting atomic and molecular species in the atmospheres of exoplanets. However, it has so far been lacking a robust method for extracting quantitative constraints on the temperature structure and molecular/atomic abundances. In this work, we present a novel Bayesian atmospheric retrieval framework applicable to high-resolution cross-correlation spectroscopy (HRCCS) that relies on the cross-correlation between data and models to extract the planetary spectral signal. We successfully test the framework on simulated data and show that it can correctly determine Bayesian credibility intervals on atmospheric temperatures and abundances, allowing for a quantitative exploration of the inherent degeneracies. Furthermore, our new framework permits us to trivially combine and explore the synergies between HRCCS and low-resolution spectroscopy to maximally leverage the information contained within each. This framework also allows us to quantitatively assess the impact of molecular line opacities at high resolution. We apply the framework to VLT CRIRES K-band spectra of HD 209458 b and HD 189733 b and retrieve abundant carbon monoxide but subsolar abundances for water, which are largely invariant under different model assumptions. This confirms previous analysis of these data sets, but is possibly at odds with detections of H{sub 2}O at different wavelengths and spectral resolutions. The framework presented here is the first step toward a true synergy between space observatories and ground-based high-resolution observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗