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Study of high temperature oxide superconductors

Experimental studies are reported whose results indicate that proper processing procedures are critical to the formation of high-temperature copper oxide superconductors. Superconducting 123 films can be fabricated using the green 211 phase as a substrate. The transition temperature and transition width characteristics of these films are better than those obtained when other oxide compounds are used as substrates. A compact or single-crystal 211 phase will be desirable as a substrate for high-quality thin films. A new high T(c) copper oxide compound with nonrare earth elements was prepared using high-temperature processing. A YBa2Cu3O7-Ag composite with improved electrical conductivity was also prepared.

Wu, M. K.↗

Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone - However, models will tend to overpredict O3

Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. The basic processes are illustrated with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

High-pressure combustion of binary fuel sprays

The ultimate objective of this study is to obtain fundamental information relevant to combustion processes that occur in fuel sprays of practical interest at high pressures in internal combustion engines. Since practical fuels are multicomponent and derived from petroleum, the present work involves the model alkane mixture of n-heptane and n-hexadecane. Since burning droplets in sprays can interact with each other, the present work involves investigation of the effects of this interaction on flame shapes and droplet burning times. The small droplets in practical combustion chambers are not significantly influenced by buoyancy. Since such small droplets are difficult to study experimentally, the present work takes advantage of microgravity to lessen buoyancy and enable information about droplet interactions to be obtained by studying larger droplets. The results are intended to provide fundamental understanding that can be used in improving descriptions of practical spray combustion.

Mikami, Masato↗

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp −1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

MODIS↗

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors.

Weir, B.↗

Building a Parallel Cloud Storage System using OpenStack’s Swift Object Store and Transformative Parallel I/O

Our project consists of bleeding-edge research into replacing the traditional storage archives with a parallel, cloud-based storage solution. It used OpenStack's Swift Object Store cloud software. It's Benchmarked Swift for write speed and scalability. Our project is unique because Swift is typically used for reads and we are mostly concerned with write speeds. Cloud Storage is a viable archive solution because: (1) Container management for larger parallel archives might ease the migration workload; (2) Many tools that are written for cloud storage could be utilized for local archive; and (3) Current large cloud storage practices in industry could be utilized to manage a scalable archive solution.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Solar Grade Silicon from Agricultural By-Products

In this project, Mayaterials developed a low cost, low energy and low temperature method of purifying rice hull ash to high purity (5-6Ns) and converting it by carbothermal reduction to solar grade quality silicon (Si pv ) using a self-designed and built electric arc furnace (EAF). Outside evaluation of our process by an independent engineering firm confirms that our technology greatly lowers estimated operating expenses (OPEX) to $\$$5/kg and capital expenses (CAPEX) to $\$$24/kg for Si pv production, which is well below best-in-class plants using a Siemens process approach (OPEX of ≈$\$$14/kg and CAPEX of $\$$87/kg, respectively). The primary limiting factor in the widespread use of photovoltaic (PV) cells is the high cost of manufacturing, compared to more traditional sources to reach 6 g Si pv /watt (with averages closer to 8+g/watt). In 2008, the spot price of Si pv rose to $\$$450/kg. While prices have since dropped to a more reasonable $\$$25/kg; this low price level is not sustainable, meaning the longer-term price will likely return to $\$$35/kg. The 6-8 g Si/watt implies that the Si pv used in a module will cost $\$$0.21-0.28/watt for the best producers (45% of the cost of a traditional solar panel), a major improvement from the cost/wafer driven by the $\$$50/kg Si costs of early 2011, but still a major hindrance in fulfilling DOE goal of lowering the cost of solar energy below $\$$1/watt. The solar cell industry has grown by 40% yearly for the past eight years, increasing the demand for Si pv . As such, future solar silicon price spikes are expected in the next few years. Although industry has invested billions of dollars to meet this ever-increasing demand, the technology to produce Si pv remains largely unchanged requiring the energy intensive, and chlorine dependent Siemens process or variations thereof. While huge improvements have been made, current state-of-the-art industrial plant still use 65 kWh/kg of silicon purified. Our technology offers a key distinction to other technologies as it starts one step upstream from all other Si pv production efforts. Our process starts by producing high purity SiO 2 /C feedstocks from which Si pv can be produced in a single, chlorine free, final EAF step. Specifically, our unique technology, and the resultant SiO 2 /C product can serve as high purity feedstocks to existing metallurgical silicon (Si met ) producers, allowing them to generate Si pv with existing US manufacturing infrastructure, reducing the overall capital and commissioning schedule. Our low energy, low CAPEX and OPEX process purifies the silica and carbon present in rice hull ash (RHA) at low temperatures (< 200°C) to produce high purity (5-6 Ns) feedstock for production of Si pv using furnaces similar to those used to produce Si met . During the course of this project we partnered with Wadham Energy LP (Wadham), who burns 220k ton of rice hulls (RH)/yr generating 200 GWh of electricity/yr and >30k ton/yr RHA. The power generation step produces much more energy (42 kWh/kg of final silicon produced) than required to purify the RHA (5 kWh/kg of Si pv , compared to 65 kWh/kg noted above. Biogenic silica offers three very important foundations for producing high purity silicon. First, wastes from silica accumulating plants, such as rice, corn, many grasses, algae and grains, contain very reactive, amorphous silica from which impurities are easily removed. Second, plants take up only a limited set of, and minimal quantities of the heavy metals present in nature, meaning fewer minerals must be removed. Third, biomass combustion generates a product with intrinsic residual carbon, mixed at nanometer length scales with the SiO 2 . RHA is 80-90 wt% high surface area (20 m 2 /g), amorphous SiO 2 with some simple mineral content mixed intimately with 5-15 wt% carbon. The mineral content is easily removed by low cost, acid washes using Mayaterials IP, leading to purified rice hull ash (RHAclean) at up to 6N purity. This highly reactive silica is partially extracted from RHAclean at 200 C in an environmentally benign process to adjust SiO 2 :C ratios to those needed in EAF processing to Si pv . EAF processing with silica depleted rice hull ash (RHASD), with nanometer scale carbon/silica mixing, reacts up to 10x faster than in traditional EAF processing because the physical distances over which the reactions occur are measured in nm vs cm. We have focused on demonstrating the efficiency in existing furnace technologies, meaning our success offers the potential to convert some portion of existing US furnace infrastructure (for Si met ) to high purity silicon production. The linkage of our process to the existing infrastructure of the U.S. silicon manufacturing industry, already a world leader, is unique compared to all other initiatives trying to produce Si pv . Purifying the silica/carbon mixture before EAF conversion to Si pv greatly reduces CAPEX and OPEX costs, reducing the final solar energy cost by $\$$0.18-0.24/watt.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Fusion-fission hybrid for fissile fuel production without processing

Two scenarios are typically envisioned for thorium fuel cycles: “open” cycles based on irradiation of 232 Th and fission of 233 U in situ without reprocessing or “closed” cycles based on irradiation of 232 Th followed by reprocessing, and recycling of 233 U either in situ or in critical fission reactors. This study evaluates a third option based on the possibility of breeding fissile material in a fusion-fission hybrid reactor and burning the same fuel in a critical reactor without any reprocessing or reconditioning. This fuel cycle requires the hybrid and the critical reactor to use the same fuel form. TRISO particles embedded in carbon pebbles were selected as the preferred form of fuel and an inertial laser fusion system featuring a subcritical blanket was combined with critical pebble bed reactors, either gas-cooled or liquid-salt-cooled. The hybrid reactor was modeled based on the earlier, hybrid version of the LLNL Laser Inertial Fusion Energy (LIFE) system, whereas the critical reactors were modeled according to the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) and the Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR) design. An extensive neutronic analysis was carried out for both the hybrid and the fission reactors in order to track the fuel composition at each stage of the fuel cycle and ultimately determine the plant support ratio, which has been defined as the ratio between the thermal power generated in fission reactors and the fusion power required to breed the fissile fuel burnt in these fission reactors. It was found that the maximum attainable plant support ratio for a thorium fuel cycle that employs neither enrichment nor reprocessing is about 2. This requires tuning the neutron energy towards high energy for breeding and towards thermal energy for burning. A high fuel loading in the pebbles allows a faster spectrum in the hybrid blanket; mixing dummy carbon pebbles with fuel pebbles enables a softer spectrum in the critical reactors. This combination consumes about 20% of the thorium initially loaded in the hybrid reactor (~200 GWd/tHM), partially during hybrid operation, but mostly during operation in the critical reactor. The plant support ratio is low compared to the one attainable using continuous fuel chemical reprocessing, which can yield a plant support ratio of about 20, but the resulting fuel cycle offers better proliferation resistance as fissile material is never separated from the other fuel components.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Spectro-Microscopic Analysis of Soot Particle Composition and Source Attribution

Ambient soot particles significantly impact Earth’s radiative balance, human health, and atmospheric visibility. Their microstructural properties depend on formation and aging mechanisms, which vary by emission source and atmospheric processes. Hence, accurately identifying sources of soot enhances our understanding of their physicochemical properties and atmospheric implications. This study used a multi-modal approach to characterize and attribute sources of submicron soot particles collected in Israel during new particle formation events, biomass burning episodes, and background atmospheric conditions. Synchrotron-based X-ray microscopy was used to map soot (elemental carbon), organic carbon, and inorganic species. Implemented atomic force microscopy showed highly diverse phase states, with soot consistently exhibiting a solid-like phase. Automated µ-Raman analysis was subsequently performed on ~690 particles, identifying three soot classes based on spectral features corresponding to the "Defect" (D) and "Graphite" (G) bands of soot. We applied two-peak and five-peak fitting approaches to deconvolute the “Defect” peaks (D1, D2, D3, and D4) and G band from average Raman, revealing varying degrees of graphitic order. The degree of graphitic order was determined from metrics such as the D3 peak area, often observed when soot was internally mixed with organic material. Raman spectral features, along with temporal variations in particle classes contributions, suggest that Particle Type 1 corresponds to traffic related soot and Particle Type 2 to less graphitic soot from biomass burning, while Particle Type 3 is associated with more heterogeneous particulate representative of soot-OC mixtures emitted during new particle formation and biomass burning episodes.

Rivera-Adorno, Felipe (ORCID:0000000273557999)↗

New determination of the {sup 2}H(d,p){sup 3}H and {sup 2}H(d,n){sup 3}He reaction rates at astrophysical energies

The cross sections of the {sup 2}H(d,p){sup 3}H and {sup 2}H(d,n){sup 3}He reactions have been measured via the Trojan Horse method applied to the quasi-free {sup 2}H({sup 3}He,p {sup 3}H){sup 1}H and {sup 2}H({sup 3}He,n {sup 3}He){sup 1}H processes at 18 MeV off the proton in {sup 3}He. For the first time, the bare nucleus S(E) factors have been determined from 1.5 MeV, across the relevant region for standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis, down to the thermal energies of deuterium burning in the pre-main-sequence (PMS) phase of stellar evolution, as well as of future fusion reactors. Both the energy dependence and the absolute value of the S(E) factors deviate by more than 15% from the available direct data and existing fitting curves, with substantial variations in the electron screening by more than 50%. As a consequence, the reaction rates for astrophysics experience relevant changes, with a maximum increase of up to 20% at the temperatures of the PMS phase. From a recent primordial abundance sensitivity study, it turns out that the {sup 2}H(d,n){sup 3}He reaction is quite influential on {sup 7}Li, and the present change in the reaction rate leads to a decrease in its abundance by up to 10%. The present reaction rates have also been included in an updated version of the FRANEC evolutionary code to analyze their influence on the central deuterium abundance in PMS stars with different masses. The largest variation of about 10%-15% pertains to young stars (≤1 Myr) with masses ≥1 M {sub ☉}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE FINAL FATE OF STARS THAT IGNITE NEON AND OXYGEN OFF-CENTER: ELECTRON CAPTURE OR IRON CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVA?

In the ONeMg cores of 8.8-9.5 M {sub ☉} stars, neon and oxygen burning is ignited off-center. Whether or not the neon-oxygen flame propagates to the center is critical for determining whether these stars undergo Fe core collapse or electron-capture-induced ONeMg core collapse. We present more details of stars that ignite neon and oxygen burning off-center. The neon flame is established in a manner similar to the carbon flame of super-AGB stars, albeit with a narrower flame width. The criteria for establishing a flame can be met if the strict Schwarzschild criterion for convective instability is adopted. Mixing across the interface of the convective shell disrupts the conditions for the propagation of the burning front, and instead the shell burns as a series of inward-moving flashes. While this may not directly affect whether or not the burning will reach the center (as in super-AGB stars), the core is allowed to contract between each shell flash. Reduction of the electron fraction in the shell reduces the Chandrasekhar mass and the center reaches the threshold density for the URCA process to activate and steer the remaining evolution of the core. This highlights the importance of a more accurate treatment of mixing in the stellar interior for yet another important question in stellar astrophysics—determining the properties of stellar evolution and supernova progenitors at the boundary between electron capture supernova and iron core-collapse supernova.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pocketing mechanics of SRM nozzle liner

A systems approach was adopted to study the pocketing phenomena on a solid rocket nozzle liner. The classical thermoelastic analysis was used to identify marginally strained regions on the composite liner erosion surface and at a depth coincident with the peak value of the across ply coefficient of thermal expansion. A failure criterion was introduced which included a thermal term and permitted failure assessment over the charred liner. The method was verified by satisfactory application to a reported related experiment. Liner pocketing mechanism was attributed to very localized material degradation caused during manufacturing process either by reduction of fiber strength and/or by concentration of resin volume fraction. Pocketing scenario over the degraged material was constructed with supporting formulation to predict size of fissures with respect to degraded material size and location in the liner and with burn time. Sensitivities of liner material parameters were determined to influence test programs designed to update mechanical data base of carbon cloth phenolic over the char temperature range.

Verderaime, V. S.↗

Superfluid Helium On-Orbit Transfer (SHOOT) flight demonstration

The Superfluid Helium On-Orbit Transfer (SHOOT) Flight Demonstration was an attached Shuttle payload mounted on a Hitchhiker cross-bay carrier which flew on STS-57 in June of 1993. SHOOT successfully demonstrated the handling and transfer of superfluid helium between two containers, called dewars, in low gravity. SHOOT was a class C payload and for the STS-57 mission was termed a complex secondary payload. The primaries were the retrieval of the EURECA carrier and a collection of modular experiments contained in SPACEHAB. Because the liquid helium was continuously boiling off, SHOOT's activities were scheduled for the first three days of the mission, concurrent with some SPACEHAB experiments, but well before the EURECA retrieval. Control of the SHOOT experiment was highly interactive and originated primarily from the Goddard Payload Operations and Control Center (POCC). Transfer and calibration activities required continuous command windows of up to 50 minutes duration and up to 80 minutes out of each orbit. Occasionally the crew controlled the experiment using the Payload General Support Computer (PGSC) when near-real time control and monitoring was required. SHOOT also placed considerable demands on the orbiter, including a pitch rotation of 3 deg./sec for 15 minutes, and translational burns using both the aft and forward RCS jets to generate accelerations up to 7 milli-g. The basis for these and other requirements are discussed. Interacion with the crew and timing of crew activity during the mission will be detailed. The processing flow of SHOOT at KSC is described with emphasis on the tradeoffs for vertical, as opposed to horizontal, installation in the orbiter. Finally, some lessons learned are presented that are relevant to future cryogenic and Hitchhiker payloads.

Shirron, Peter↗

Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B): DC-8 - Volume 1

This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B) conducted in March and April 1999. PEM-Tropics B was conducted during the southern-tropical wet season when the influence from biomass burning observed in PEM-Tropics A was minimal. Major deployment sites were Hawaii, Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Tahiti, Fiji, and Easter Island. The broad goals of PEM-Tropics B were to improved understanding of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and the processes controlling sulfur aerosol formation and to establish baseline values for chemical species that are directly coupled to the oxidizing power and aerosol loading of the troposphere. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that will be available in archived format via NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) or are available through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analysis, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

Scott, A. Donald, Jr.↗

Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Pacific Exploratory Mission - Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B): P-3B - Volume 2

This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B) conducted in March and April 1999. PEM-Tropics B was conducted during the southern-tropical wet season when the influence from biomass burning observed in PEM-Tropics A was minimal. Major deployment sites were Hawaii, Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Tahiti, Fiji, and Easter Island. The broad goals of PEM-Tropics B were to improved understanding of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and the processes controlling sulfur aerosol formation and to establish baseline values for chemical species that are directly coupled to the oxidizing power and aerosol loading of the troposphere. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that will be available in archived format via NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) or are available through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analysis, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

Scott, A. Donald, Jr.↗

Dust Production and Mass Loss in Cool Evolved Stars

Following the red giant branch phase and the subsequent core He-burning phase, the low- to intermediate-mass stars (0.8<M/M solar mass <8) begin to ascend the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). Pulsations levitate material from the stellar surface and provide density enhancements and shocks, which can encourage dust formation and re-processing. The dust composition depends on the atmospheric chemistry (abundance of carbon relative to oxygen), which is altered by dredging up newly formed carbon to the surface of the star. I will briefly review the current status of models that include AGB mass loss and relate them to recent observations of AGB stars from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE) Spitzer surveys of the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds, including measures of the total dust input to the interstellar medium from AGB stars.

Boyer, M. L.↗

Sharing Lessons Learned 'Across the Pond' on Two Major Construction Projects: Evaporator D and SWPF - 16050

This paper compares and contrasts two projects, the Salt Waste Processing Facility at Savannah River in the US and Evaporator D at Sellafield in the UK, to highlight the similar challenges that each project has experienced since contract award and how these challenges have been addressed. The paper compares the life-cycles of the projects, project strategy, design, construction, and regulatory issues, along with cost and schedule performance. There is also some discussion about the anticipated challenges in the future as the projects move into the startup and commissioning phase. Overall, the paper identifies some of the common areas that have affected these projects and how these similarities have been the subject of sharing and collaborating lessons learned on a broader scale, even though the delivery organizations operate in different countries under different regulatory and Government frameworks. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. Predominant sources are combustion related; namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption, influence on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models, and should be increased by about about 60%. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of black carbon is +0.43 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.17, +0.68) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources in the present day is estimated as +0.49 (+0.20, +0.76) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings and their rapid responses and feedbacks. The best estimate of industrial-era (1750 to 2005) climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms is +0.77 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +-0.06 to +1.53 W m-2. Thus, there is a 96% probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. With a value of +0.77 W m-2, black carbon is likely the second most important individual climate-forcing agent in the industrial era, following carbon dioxide. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short- lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of co- emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil-fuel and biofuel) have a net climate forcing of +0.004 (-0.62 to +0.57) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all black- carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.08 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.23 to +0.81 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

assessment↗